by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 10:31:56 PM EDT
by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 10:31:56 PM EDT
Thanks for the links. After watching that I'm even more certain that a Clegg-Brown post election coalition is even more unlikely. Cameroon I thought sounded a little too Kumbaya, at least in the beginning, which was funny coming from the conservative candidate.
I think it would be interesting to see liberal dems score the PM spot away from a conservative or labour leader.
God forbid Nick Griffin and the BNP ever get a substantial following though..... awful
Here are the YouGov polling numbers from mid-week, before the debate:
Here are the latest YouGov numbers:
I'm skeptical. I sympathize with the LibDems myself, but I don't think they are in a position to overtake Labour, especially with the first-past-the-post electoral system the UK has.
Seat-wise, that may be correct. But one of the goals is election reform of that obstacle. It would be pretty crazy for Lib Dems to get, say, 36%, the Tories 34%, and Labour at 25%, and have Labour be the party with the most seats, but entirely possible too. That scenario though, would undoubtedly lead to a huge outcry for the reform.
That's intersting, thought the 4% jump pre-debate to 22% was pretty much in the 18-22 range than the Lib Dems had been stuck in for a long time.
The possibility I wonder about, now that the Lib Dems are viable, is whether there are a number of people who had been voting for Labour, but only to keep the conservatives from winning. If Clegg can argue that in reverse effectively, we could see the shift solidify, even grow to the Lib Dems in the lead.
When I lived in the UK (during the 1992 and 2002 elections), I was always amazed that there wasn't more tactical voting, and by the number of Labour supporters who were hostile toward the LibDems. I haven't lived there for a long time and am out of touch with the current attitudes, but I would be really surprised by a huge shift from Labour to LibDem. Who knows, though?
You should check out the video that I linked to on BB. I was over there during the London mayoral race-- have been working with the Lib Dems since then off and on; and the dynamic there in that video for Clegg. People were fed up with Labour pretty much over there, which is why Boris won, we could never get it to the tipping point though of abandoning Livingtson to beat Boris with a Lib Dem instead. But the polls showed that if we could get it to reverse, that it could in fact tip to really decimating Labour. That might now happen; and a good thing too, because Labour has been terrible, especially with their support of the ME wars. Clegg will get off the US bandwagon on that one.
In the words of the Telegraph, the poll "is all the more startling because the majority of respondents were polled before Mr Clegg’s victorious showing in Thursday night’s debate, suggesting the Lib Dem advance was already under way."
The Telegraph also has a nice page tracking the various polls.
A BPIX poll for the Mail on Sunday shows the Lib Dems gaining 12 points in the past week, and the Conservatives dropping 7 points, giving the Lib Dems a slim 1 point margin over the Tories:
A ComRes poll for the Sunday Mirror and Independent shows the Lib Dems gaining 8 points since Wednesday, moving them into second place ahead of Labour, but still behind the Tories:
In the ComRes poll, "64% believed that Mr Clegg should play a part in the next government." Both polls were conducted after the debate (April 16-17).
...because it smashes the party hierarchies, scares Labour and Tory careerists, promises more radical reform of Parliament and the House of Lord, and proves the 60 per cent of the population are in favour of a progressive agenda.
However, having lived through the 80s, when the Liberal SDP alliance split the anti Tory vote, and allowed 19 years of disastrous Thatcherite hegemony, I would be a little wary of saying the Liberal democrats are 'way ahead of all the other parties' just because you worked for them Jerome.
They've never had office - have been the recipient of a protest and tactical vote, and their policies have never been formulated for anything other than a coalition with another party.
Labour is the natural coalition party for them, if the egos can be got over, thus ensuring we don't head down a right wing republican path. I'm a non tribalist Labour supporter myself, but the Lib Dems are a great antidote to the nannying tendencies of New Labour.
And given the electoral is splitting roughly 30/30/30 - you've got to give credit to Labour for holding on, despite an unpopular leader, two unpopular wars, and the worse recession in living memory. They've been in power for 13 years.
Meanwhile, the conservatives have lost a former 17 point lead.
But I find it a bit odd, Jerome, knowing both the UK and US scenes, that you're keen on Clegg but don't like Obama. Both are radically centrist, offer post partisanship, and offer change.
Politically, a lot of the policies and causes you have supported recently Jerome make you a much more natural member of the centre left of the Labour Party.
Funny that no one else has come to that conclusion. Rather, its been Cameron that has been running the Obama-like campaign, he's even hired Anita Dunn and Squire from the WH campaign team. Bipartisanship is a tired them; the Lib Dems are much more disruptive in their rhetoric of rejecting the bipartisanship voice (which Obama cherishes), in favor of a rejection of the blue-to-red-to blue (but nothing changes) politics of hold.
Lets hope that we get some of that here in '12 or '16. We can surely see that Washington is broken by both parties being beholden to the corporate and military powers-- theirs nothing radical about the centrist Obama carrying forth Bush's agenda on those matters.
There you go with the military industrial corporate stuff - really Jerome, that's spoken on the left wing of the Labour Party.
But I completely agree the Lib Dem insurgency is disruptive, in a creative way.
Really brit, have you always been this suportive of the invasions/occupations of the ME and the Fed giveaways to the banks, or did it just start with Obama?
The Lib Dems were the only party in the UK that was against the Iraq invasion; by far Clegg's taxation is more progressive. They are more global, and more progressive, and attract the younger people. They are the future.
I hardly know your lefty friends there in Labour brit, they should probably abandon it and go Green or try out the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems got it right on Iraq (as Obama did - remember?) and they have a slightly more progressive Tax plan than Labour, true. But on other issues such as socialised healthcare, they're much less unequivocally interventionist than Labour. On the global stuff, that's been the main prerogative of the left for years, and Brown had led the way on anti global poverty campaigns (something everyone accepts is one of his strong points. On corporatism, the Lib Dems generally portray themselves as more pro private business, cutting back the role of the state, etc. - hence their appeal to disaffected Tories. When it comes to making wild generalisations about another country's politics, it helps to get things right. As for voting Green, I'll leave it to others to vamp up the moral purity of lost causes. Labour have done well for this country, but I'll have the Lib Dems any day rather than the Tories. But thanks for sharing some of your (mis)perceptions.
The Lib Dems got it right on Iraq (as Obama did - remember?) and they have a slightly more progressive Tax plan than Labour, true. But on other issues such as socialised healthcare, they're much less unequivocally interventionist than Labour.
On the global stuff, that's been the main prerogative of the left for years, and Brown had led the way on anti global poverty campaigns (something everyone accepts is one of his strong points).
On corporatism, the Lib Dems generally portray themselves as more pro private business, cutting back the role of the state, etc. - hence their appeal to disaffected Tories.
And as for the Lib Dems being the 'future' - only in coalition. That's the radical disruptive post partisan thing. People will be voting on issues, not parties.
When it comes to making wild generalisations about another country's politics, it helps to get things right.
As for voting Green, I'll leave it to others to vamp up the moral purity of lost causes. Labour have done well for this country, but I'll have the Lib Dems any day rather than the Tories.
But thanks for sharing some of your (mis)perceptions.
Actually, Obama got a speech right, but with every funding vote he made, he was wrong.
I thought you'd been a labour guy there, but good to see you are open to Lib Dems.