Romneycare & Obamacare

The CNN poll shows Romney as being the slight frontrunner among the GOP 2012:

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 22%
 Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 18%
 Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee 17%
 Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich 8%
 Texas Congressman Ron Paul 8%
 Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty 5%
 Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 5%
 Indiana Congressman Mike Pence 4%
 Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour 1%

This morning at the AAPC pollies conference, I listed to Stan Greenberg describe the recently passed HCR as a bill based on Republican ideas (individual mandate, market-driven), and a number of writers have pointed this out lately. The bill was, as Nancy Pelosi pointed out, “built on a series of principles that Republicans espoused for years.

So, for Romney, there's an initial reaction that he's toast, and Pawlenty's campaign is seeking to tie Romney to the bill. He does have a positive:

One thing Romney can say, and that Democrats can't, is that Romney's bill was bipartisan. He worked with his Democrats, with Sen. Ted Kennedy. This won't play well with a primary audience, however, especially if "Obamacare" remains as unpopular with Republicans as it is right now.

Waldman says there's a real possibility of HCR not even being an '12 threshold issue, and that seems a distinct possibility given the bills guiding principles. Here's one way to look at Romney:

His transparent lack of beliefs, his willingness to adopt any position he thinks will win a moment's affection from the person he's talking to, his eagerness to say and do absolutely anything, no matter how ridiculous, in the pursuit of power -- it has a kind of purity, a phoniness so complete it's charming.


Tags: Romney, obama (all tags)



Huckabee's numbers

I think Huckabee's doing a remarkable job of maintaining his position considering how much more exposure Romney, Palin, Gingrich and Pawlenty are getting. I haven't put a lot of thought into it at this point, but he's the one that scares me the most right now.

by aaronetc 2010-03-26 03:55PM | 0 recs

If Obama had more of a killer instinct I could see an 2012 campaign against Romney being over very quickly.  SO much to paint this guy with... and god would I love to see a commercial about his bad judgement such as tying the Family dog to the car carrier and driving.   You paint Romney as a flip flopper with bad judgment when he actually settles on a side.

by FUJA 2010-03-26 03:55PM | 0 recs
RE: ...

I learned in 2000 that the media will do anything to ensure a horse race.

by Steve M 2010-03-26 10:38PM | 0 recs
RE: ...

That is so true. That campaign was the beginning of my involvement with blogs, specifically Somerby's Daily Howler.

by desmoinesdem 2010-03-27 05:24AM | 0 recs
RE: ...

With the exception of a very brief window right after the GOP convention, would you call 2008 that much of a horse race?  I mean the Democratic primary was far more competitive (and productive) than the general, IMHO.   Once the first debate happened, Obama built a comfortable lead and then the Palin interviews and Debate 2 (wandering John) put it in the bag.  Sure it wasn't Reagan v Mondale or Johnson v Goldwater, but it was still a foregone conclusion (except for our paranoia they'd find a way to fix the election like 2000).

by FUJA 2010-03-28 12:29AM | 0 recs
RE: Romneycare & Obamacare

What makes you so sure Obama doesn't have much of a killer instinct?

by spirowasright 2010-03-26 04:55PM | 0 recs
Obama can't...

What makes you so sure Obama doesn't have much of a killer instinct?

After Obama stepped on to the National Stage to run for President, if I had a nickel for every time the punditocracy decried that "Obama can't!" or "Obama doesn't", I'd be a very rich man.


by NoFortunateSon 2010-03-27 11:21AM | 1 recs
RE: Romneycare & Obamacare

If he does, he hasn't shown any sign of it.  I mean if he had that instinct he would have finished off Hillary early in the cycle.    It's not a bad thing, it's just something I've seen no sign of with him.   Sometimes its very handy.

by FUJA 2010-03-28 12:31AM | 0 recs
I think if I HAD to...

I could live with Mitt Romney as being president (god-forbid a republican even make it that far in 2012)


But the potential of Sarah Palin being the nominee in 2012 scares the hell out of me.  The fact that her idiot base has built such a showing in this small amount of time is frightening.

by Chuckie Corra 2010-03-26 06:20PM | 0 recs
RE: I think if I HAD to...

Mitt should scare you just as much.

by FUJA 2010-03-28 12:32AM | 0 recs
The problem with Mitt

is everything I like about him would be off limits as a Republican President.

I actually supported Romneycare, thought it would a great first step toward universal health care and I think it could be built on and should be.

But Romney would have never brought that to a national level...ever 

by ND22 2010-04-01 10:35PM | 0 recs
What An Incredibly Weak Field

     When you look at it, it's just stunning.

     A one-term governor of a medium sized state. A half-term governor of a state with a population under 1 Million. A former governor of the smallest Southern state. A former House Speaker who last won an election 12 years ago. A Congressman from Texas. A two-term governor of a medium-sized state, who won his two races with 45.7% and 50.5% of the vote. A two-term Senator from a large state who got beat 59-41 running for a third term 4 years ago. A Congressman from Indiana. And the Governor of Mississippi, who will be 65 on Election Day, 2012. And there's very little difference between any of them on policy issues.

     This from a party that's won 7 of the last 11 Presidential elections. We've been saying for some time that the Republican Party is increasingly irrelevant as its older, White base dies off. This is proof of it.

by Ron Thompson 2010-03-26 06:59PM | 1 recs
RE: What An Incredibly Weak Field

Mitch Daniels isn't mention in the poll.  HE is the one to watch for.   He scares me.

by FUJA 2010-03-28 12:33AM | 0 recs
what a weak field

Normally I'd think Romney but he's way too phony, and this health care stance isn't like to help in the primary.

Surely there must be some governors, not known nationally, who can emerge. 

Huckabee, I guess, is getting exposure on Fox News but the only time I watched more than a minute was when he played with Bernie Williams.  In 2008 he was not loyal enough for the primaries. Beck, for example, hated him more than anyone. 

by John DE 2010-03-26 07:32PM | 0 recs
RE: what a weak field

Surely there must be some governors, not known nationally, who can emerge.

     Well,we're about 21 months away from the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. If anybody's going to emerge, they'll probably need to do so by summer of next year.

     Among the current Republican governors, Rick Perry and Mitch Daniels seem like the most likely, though they were George W. Bush's Lieutenant Governor and Budget Director. Schwarzenegger's ineligible, and the Republican base hates Crist. Sonny Perdue of Georgia would not be a credible candidate. And Jan Brewer of Arizona, who inherited the job from Janet Napolitano, may not even win the Republican nomination for a full term.

     Clinton Rossiter wrote in the 1960s that a viable Presidential candidate needed to be from a state bigger than Kentucky, which then had nine electoral votes. Other than President Clinton, I can't think of a President since Franklin Pierce who came from a state smaller than Kentucky. And I believe I have already mentioned every current Republican governor from states with more than nine electoral votes (including Pawlenty), except for the two elected in November, 2009, McDonnell and Christie, who are not really in a position to run for President a year after taking office.

     I think if I had to pick one pony to bet on to win the Republican nomination, it would be Rick Perry.

by Ron Thompson 2010-03-26 08:10PM | 0 recs
RE: what a weak field

No way... Rick Perry has a terrible record in Texas, barely over 50% approval and did not have 50% of the hypothetical matchup in the last poll I could find; his re-election is not a foregone conclusion. Don't forget they have him on film saying Texas should secede from the Union which will not play well with independents, IMHO.   He'd be beaten like a drum.

by FUJA 2010-03-28 12:38AM | 0 recs
RE: what a weak field

     Well, my point was not that he would be elected, but that he's the best bet for the nomination.

     The Republicans still have winner-take-all primaries, and many of them are only open to registered Republicans. In a multi-candidate field, Perry could win with only 20-25%, and with the support of Texas oil and gas money, he'd probably have more financial support than anyone else. And I'm not sure that threatening secession is a negative among Republicans these days.

by Ron Thompson 2010-03-28 10:39PM | 0 recs
Being a phoney

worked for Romney's Presidential campaign in the past, right?  Yeah, I find his lack of conviction oddly compelling...

by West of the Fields 2010-03-27 01:17AM | 0 recs
RE: Romneycare & Obamacare

Republicans mostly run sitting Presidents (2004, 1992,1984, 1976, 1972, 1956, 1932, 1924) or Vice Presidents (1988, 1960) with a fall back of a former VP (Nixon, 1968).  They have had little success recycling candidates who failed to win the nomination in the past (McCain, Dole, Reagan).  The other option is someone already famous (Ike in 52) or the Governor of a very large state (W, Dewey).

Second chances, like many of the names on the list, have fared poorly.  McCain, Dole, and Dewey going down; Reagan winning with Nixon also a former VP.

I see McDonnell as a likely candidate unless someone emerges in 2010.  Christie is locally a disaster and he is very, very stupid. (I live in NJ).  Unlike Pawlenty and the bridge repairs he vetoed, McDonnell would have no record to defend.

Interesting point about state size.  Hoover was from Iowa (then 10 EV) and California (13 EV) but had no elected background.  Goldwater was from Arizona (then 5 EV) but was trounced.  Going beyond Pierce, Zachary Taylor was from Louisiana (then 6 EV) in 1848.



by David Kowalski 2010-03-27 04:54AM | 0 recs
RE: Romneycare & Obamacare

You think McDonnell's going to run in 2012?

by FUJA 2010-03-28 12:41AM | 0 recs
RE: Romneycare & Obamacare

He's already ruled it out. Not gonna happen.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-03-28 10:40AM | 0 recs
These polls are somewhat surprising..

given the "straw-poll" for Ron Paul @ CPAC earlier this year... although the party is so indecisive on a leader for any given situation.. so maybe I shouldn't be so surprised.  

I'm interested in seeing a new poll in the aftermath of this Romney-Healthcare/Obamacare/Mass. Healthcare debacle.  

by Chuckie Corra 2010-03-30 01:32PM | 0 recs


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