Crash and Burn Day for Dems
by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Nov 02, 2010 at 06:05:15 AM EDT
Here are the fearless predictions:
House: I was at 50 seats being lost for about a year, then at 57 last week, and now... 67 seats. That's what the generic house poll says, or more. We'll know a bit after 7 PM EST, when VA returns. If the 6D/5R Virginia delegation looks like its headed to a 2D/9R one, we are headed way up there.
Senate: Still at 9 seats. I am going with Adams pulling off an upset win in AK for the Dems. But I am also predicting that the toss-ups, WA/IL/CO/NV/WV all go Republican. Its a 50-50 Senate, with Biden in control, but not for long. There are two fallouts--
1) Palin is going to get thrashed and trashed inside the GOP. She'll be skapegoated for the Republicans not winning the Senate-- it will really all be about '12 by Romney/Pawlenty... supporters.
2) Lieberman, seeing CT go red, "in the interest of Connecticut (himself)" will caucus with the Republicans as an Independent, giving the GOP the Senate majority.
3) I am probably applying Matt Stoller's theorem to the Senate (imagine the most annoying, not the worse, scenario) to a fault. I would probably, if it involved money, bet that Manchin holds on in WV.
Governor: 32 Republican, 17 Democratic, 1 Independent. FL, OH, and CT all go Republican. Chafee wins RI. Yes, Markos, Joe Trippi will have won CA for Jerry Brown. Believe it or not, it actually could wind up worse too, if all the other toss-ups currently going Dem (OR, CO, MN, VT, MA) go instead Republican. Florida is the toughest call, as I think the Sink ads are some of the best for her state, and she leads in Independents, but man, the early voting numbers in Florida are so Republican.
MyDD: Still on beta... will crash and burn early. Save it for another day.
Fallout: Of course this mid-term result is more a rejection of the Democrats, and specifically Obama politics, than it is an embrace of the Republicans. The Obama loyalists will say they are reality-based and that Obama wasn't on the ballot. White liberal intellectuals imply that any potential Democratic '12 challenger is being racially divisive.
Probably the thing to be most hopeful for in 2011 is that, because its Obama's war in Afghanistan, we can help push Republicans to join Democrats in not funding Obama's war.
The other thing to hope for is that SCOTUS throws out the corporate insurance mandate for individuals as unconstitutional.
And pot. I think it will pass in CA; meaning California dreaming has a whole new meaning. If it doesn't pass, it will create an even stronger movement.
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