Reapportionment Projections

Swing State Project has an easy to wade through breakdown of the new reapportionment model from Election Data Services -- complete with previous year trends -- showing New York losing not one but two seats. 

EDS's model -- a mix in part of population estimates and Post Office change of address lists -- and record make a convincing case.

But George Mason's Michael P. McDonald argues New Yorkers shouldn't break out their boundary drawing markers just yet:

This new report predicts New York losing a second seat, apparently to Florida, which now gains two. One other noteworthy change in the fight between Minnesota and Missouri to retain a seat, Minnesota now would keep all their seats and Missouri would lose one.

There is an important flaw to the EDS study that a close read of the report reveals, and that affects its conclusions.

The EDS report uses ESRI's July 1, 2010, population estimates, while the population numbers that will be used to conduct congressional apportionment are from April 1, 2010. Three months may not seem like a big deal; however, populations in states like Florida and Texas are growing very quickly. We can turn the clock back on the ESRI data by linearly interpolating the July 1, 2009, and July 1, 2010, estimates to produce an April 1, 2010, estimate. When we do, New York no longer loses a second seat. In fact, these reconfigured numbers suggest that Florida still gains a second seat at the expense of Texas, which was expected to gain four seats but now only gains three. (This adjustment also continues to have Missouri losing one seat and Minnesota losing none.)

Actual data won't be available until early december and, as McDonald points out, projections are never dead on.

Also worth noting: if EDS's projected Texas gains prove solid, heavy growth in areas like Houston and the possible takeover of the legislature by Democrats would no doubt influence the color of the final maps.  A new seat here is something Democrats would gladly trade up for.

Good stuff on redistricting and the governors races via WaPo's Aaron Blake.

Tags: New York, Election Data Services, Redistricting, texas, 2010 Governor Races (all tags)

Comments

3 Comments

swing of 12 in '12

For '12, it takes away 8 of the '08 EV's in the Democratic column, 4 from the GOP side. Its a big assumption that PA and OH stay in the Democratic column with Obama as the nominee, but lets assume.

Gains likely in the R column: AZ (1), GA (1), SC (1), TX (4), UT (1)

Gains likely in the D column: WA (1)

Gains we don't know: FL (2),  NV (1)

Depending on those last two, its a swing of somewhere between 4 to 7 EV's toward Republicans, based on this model.

Obama has a lot of states to lose, say OH or PA, and neither winning NV, NC, IN, or VA.

He's got to win in FL, CO, IA, MI, NH to stay ahead.

That would Obama a one state victory. What I'm saying is that FL, now with 29 EV's, is probably going to be the key state in 2012.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-10-02 11:03PM | 0 recs
RE: swing of 12 in '12

Obama's highly unlikely to win Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, or Virginia again unless the economy takes an explosive upturn in the next 14 months. 

If the election were held in the next six months, he would lose Kerry states like Pennsylvania, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and would struggle badly in New Jersey.  I assume improves enough in 2012 to get these states back. 

He could get to 272 votes by winning all of the Kerry states plus Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Iowa.  I think he'll struggle most in Colorado, as that state always seems to go move against Democratic incumbents(i.e. from Clinton to Dole from '92 to '96. 

Unless unemployment gets below 8% by early 2012(when attitudes about incumbent Presidents begin to harden), Obama is going to struggle heavily to win reelection. 

This isnt Bill Clinton in 1996 when the economy was already in full recovery mode by late 1993 and unemployment was already low. 

This also isnt Reagan in 1984 when the economy exploded with nearly 8% GDP growth in 1983 and the first part of 1984. 

by Kent 2010-10-02 11:35PM | 0 recs
RE: swing of 12 in '12

What I'm saying is that FL, now with 29 EV's, is probably going to be the key state in 2012.

Florida has been a key state in every election since 2000 and probably before that as well.

by vecky 2010-10-03 11:02AM | 0 recs

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