Cook, Sabato's latest
by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Oct 15, 2010 at 10:59:36 AM EDT
Overall, Charlie Cook is predicting that Democrats chances of losing over 50 seats is greater than their chances of holding the losses below 45 seats:
“At the moment, 22 Democratic seats, including 10 open seats and 12 incumbents, sit in the Lean or Likely Republican columns, while two Republican seats sit in the Lean or Likely Democratic columns, for a net of 20 Republican seats. That means Republicans only need to win 21 of the 40 seats in the Toss Up column to win a majority, not even counting many of the 30 Democratic seats in the Lean Democratic column that are rapidly becoming more competitive. At this point, all but four of the Democrats in our Toss Up column have trailed in at least one public or private poll, and Democrats’ fortunes in most of these seats are on the decline."
Larry Sabato is sticking with 47 seats in the House, though he hints that a few more may be added by election day. Nate Silver is at 45 seats. Pretty much a consensus of a majority, but not by a lot, for the House. I can't imagine that Pelosi stays past 2012 if that's the case, as redistricting is going to make it a long haul.
Also, two papers to dive into. First:
Underscoring the importance of the enthusiasm gap, Republicans lead 50%-41% in the 86 Democrat seats among high interest voters – those who rate their interest as an 8-10 on a scale of 1-10. That is reinforced by the finding that low interest voters prefer the Democrat by a 32% GOP/55% Dem margin. So, the group that Democrats are doing best with don’t care.
In a word- Yep. In that sense, its just like '94. The second:
For the first time in 70 years, Republican turnout in statewide mid-term primaries (for U.S. Senate and governor) exceeded Democratic turnout in a primary turnout season that produced the second lowest turnout ever.
Democratic average turnout in the 42 states which held Democratic statewide primaries was 15,482,969 or 8.2 percent of the eligible electorate, a new low turnout record eclipsing the 9.0 percent who voted in 2006. This continues a trend in which Democratic primary turnout has fallen in almost every year since the 1950s.
2006 did not turn toward the Democrats until after most primaries were past. When Lamont upset Lieberman, in August, it shifted the whole terrain and message to one of anti-war anti-occupation. This cycle has no such late shift, just a long partisan slog of nonsense claims heading into the finale.
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