Toss-Up in MA
by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Jan 09, 2010 at 08:35:38 PM EST
This has been building for a while now, and now it's tipped. Brown has pulled ahead of Coakley by a narrow margin, 48-47, according to PPP. Check out the massive lopside among Independents toward Brown:
-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are 'very excited' about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that's among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.
-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama's plan with 59% opposed.
-In a trend that's going to cause Democrats trouble all year, voters disgusted with both parties are planning to vote for the one out of power.
For those who want to work on behalf of Coakley, OFA has set up a phonebanking tool, to get on the phone tomorrow and make a few calls on behalf of Coakley into MA voters. Im checked in.
As usual, the centrists and independents are driving this movement. I heard Brown on a few talk shows and he is smart to not uncork too much rabid conservative issues, keeping with the economic angles and staying away from the hot social issues that got the GOP in hot water in 2006 and 2008.
That's McDonnell. The Republicans have a pretty good playbook in hand, heading into 2010.
[update] The Boston Globe poll shows Coakley up by 15 percent-- quite a disparity. PPP will be going back into the field one more time before next Tuesday's election.