Bayh vulnerable? Probably.
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Jan 20, 2010 at 01:59:34 PM EST
There's not a poll out, but I get the feeling that Bayh is getting nervous:
Senator Evan Bayh is warning fellow Democrats that ignoring the lessons of the Massachusetts Senate race will “lead to even further catastrophe” for their party.
“There’s going to be a tendency on the part of our people to be in denial about all this,” Bayh told ABC News, but “if you lose Massachusetts and that’s not a wake-up call, there’s no hope of waking up.”
Well, clearly, we have a lot of sleep-walkers that belive we should just do a cram-down of the Senate bill in the House. I'm not one of them at all; the HRC bill should be narrowed to some things that can get Republican votes, while getting rid of the things like the mandate that are political baggage (or go through reconciliation and make it progressive-- just don't keep doing the same Fail).
But anyway, back to Bayh and 2010 for the Senate-- because its his seat thats probably most on-the-line of HRC is full-steam ahead as is from the Senate.
There's a number of Republicans, besides John Hosteller (Mike Pence for example), who could jump into the Senate race, and probably shift the race to a toss-up.
Via Indiana's IUPUI political scientist Brian Vargus:
On a scale of zero to 10, with zero being dead in the water and 10 being invincible, Vargus puts the Bayh’s chances at a seven.
The best shot at defeating Bayh would be to run a populist campaign and paint him as an elitist, Vargus says. Play up his Virginia law degree, his Georgetown home away from home, his wife’s corporate board seats. And even then, it probably wouldn’t be enough.
I'd like to see a poll.