MA Senate Prediction thread

Of course, I hope my analytical hat is wrong. But frankly, I would take the 2:1 or 3:1 that Chris Bowers and Nate Silver are handing out for their odds. It's always fun when we have a polling upset though,

I loved Kyle's idea of baking the predictions into the user system here, but until then, we'll have to use a prediction thead, so make yours in the comments. The best/closest will get their bonus in a shout-out. Mine is the same as yesterday: Brown 53, Coakley 46, Kennedy 1

One more ironic note. If Coakley wins, it will be Rasmussen, with its final poll, that has called it correct. Rather than release a poll closer than a week out, Rasmussen just had this to say:

That’s a long way around saying that we’re right back where we were a week ago - at the time of the last Rasmussen Reports poll. Brown is leading slightly among those certain to vote, and Coakley will do better if more Democrats show up.

Quite the hedge for a Brown win, but positioned to have a response for those that say Rasmussen is biased in its questioning if Coakley wins.

Also, things continue to press ahead for MyDD 5. I am hoping we get the new WYSIWIG and post/preview/draft system deployed this week for entries and comments. We've put in a "news feed" to track replies for now. But ultimately, we'll also return with a user profile that has things like what are on DKos, but also working in a follower/following and private message system with the user profile, as part of this first phase of 5.

Tags: 2010, MA Senate, MyDD5 (all tags)

Comments

44 Comments

What about turnout?

I'd like turnout reports from the ground.  Anybody here in Mass?

by Drummond 2010-01-19 01:24PM | 0 recs
Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

And good for us in the long run. Brown we can replace in 2012.  Coakley would have been a right-of-Scalia hack senator for decades.

by Newt 2010-01-19 01:25PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

I agree. This is why I posted that this election is largely irrelevant to Healthcare reform. This past election cycle , was damn close to seeing it happen.

We will see it happen soon.

 

by Trey Rentz 2010-01-19 01:37PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

I think we might be better off if the House passes the Senate version anyway. All this back room negotiating looks like a chance for special interests to take another bite at the apple. A public option is not on the table but corporate giveaways and Stupack are.

We'll be better off taking the Brown medicine now and feeling better in the long term.

by Newt 2010-01-19 01:43PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

The main thing in RE: the back room negotiations is what specific elements of the senate bill will be preserved enough to be able to call it 'the senate bill'.

Some elements of the bill can be merged with other elements of the house bill, as I understand it. I am not sure how this works.....

Does the bill have to go back for a vote?

 

by Trey Rentz 2010-01-19 01:45PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

A merged bill would.   Since the Senate bill has already passed the Senate, the house could vote on the exact same bill and if passed, would go to Obama to be signed into law.

by FUJA 2010-01-19 03:55PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

A merged bill would.   Since the Senate bill has already passed the Senate, the house could vote on the exact same bill and if passed, would go to Obama to be signed into law.

by FUJA 2010-01-19 03:55PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

right of Scalia?  based on what?

by TeresaINPennsylvania 2010-01-19 02:25PM | 0 recs
Right of Scalia? LOL

Ignore the nonsense.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-19 03:14PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

Melendez-Diaz for one.

On the Amirault cases as well, she has chosen to put herself to the right of the unconscionable Scalia position on convictions and punishment of innocents.

In her primary career as a prosecutor she has been a right-wing nut and a machine hack of the lowest order.  If she can get herself elected to the Senate, we can expect more abuse and betrayal as she exposes herself on a wider array of issues.

by Newt 2010-01-19 03:41PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 51 Coakley 46 Kennedy 3

She filed suit against DOMA, not exactly the actions of a right-wing hack.

by vecky 2010-01-19 05:38PM | 0 recs
51-451-49 Coakley

I think enough Dems will come home. Clearly there is momentum on the other side, but this would be too much, too soon, imo. Of course, during the front part of the weekend, I told everybody that the Chargers are the hottest NFL team right now :)

by HKingsley 2010-01-19 01:26PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

51-49, I mean. Something keeps happening with the ad banner -- it blocks half the page and I can't see what I'm doing.

by HKingsley 2010-01-19 01:28PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

What operating system and type of browser? 

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-19 01:31PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

explorer / xp

by HKingsley 2010-01-19 01:44PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

explorer 6.0

by HKingsley 2010-01-19 01:45PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

ah, ie 6.... now, if you were a client, I would be all nice to you but you'll just have to upgrade to ie 7 or ie 8, because if I went down the road wasting money on designers fixing for ie6 bugs, it'd cost way too many hours (and beleive me, I know all to well from experience).

 

http://isie6dead.com/

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-19 02:07PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

Agreed on that... IE 9 has been in development since end of OCT/Beg of NOV...    Everyone using IE should be on a minimum of IE 7 at this point.

by FUJA 2010-01-19 03:53PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

It's very easy to upgrade to Firefox.  Depending on your computer, Chrome or Safari may be easy upgrades, also.

by Newt 2010-01-19 02:16PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

Same issue for me

I have problems with the left nav bar as well in IE6.

by fladem 2010-01-19 01:51PM | 0 recs
RE: 51-451-49 Coakley

maybe Kyle will take pity on you ie 6 users :)

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-19 02:08PM | 0 recs
Coakley 49, Brown 48, Kennedy 3

Hedge all you want like Rasmussen but you still would owe me the drink if Coakley wins! :)

by louisprandtl 2010-01-19 01:46PM | 0 recs
Brown 49 Coakley 48.5 Kennedy 2.5

I just got back and cast my vote for Coakley.

I think Brown will win but by a closer margin than everyone would think.

Who knows.  I have no idea how this has even happened in the past 3 weeks and I live here.

Also, on Predictions and MyDD, I think it would be neat to build it into the system as a visible form of reputation over time.  Start with 2010 elections on State/National level.  Over time it would give a good sense of how engaged users were and who can pick 'em.

by Kyle Shank 2010-01-19 01:47PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 49 Coakley 48.5 Kennedy 2.5

Btw the weather is terrible here today.  Wet snow creating huge puddles and misery on the road.  Wonder how that will affect turnout.

by Kyle Shank 2010-01-19 02:04PM | 0 recs
RE: Brown 49 Coakley 48.5 Kennedy 2.5
Older voters who favor Brown because of Health Care may stay home, but I doubt it. If someone is excited to vote, or have a good reason to vote, chances are they will vote despite the weather. If Coakley is going to win, it will be by the skin of her teeth. Either way, this does not bode well for November. A lot of vulnerable seats will likely go Republican.
by RJEvans 2010-01-19 02:45PM | 0 recs
not feeling good

Brown 49

Coakley 48

Kennedy 3

and even that may be too optimistic.

On the other hand, if Coakley wins a lot of pollsters will look bad.

by desmoinesdem 2010-01-19 01:48PM | 0 recs
RE: not feeling good
I'm from Massachusetts originally ( Northampton) but I've lived in NYC for the last 10 years. My friends at home all say voter turnout looks good. However Northampton is probably the most progressive city in the country ( top 10 easy). The Globe on-line reports very high turnout IN Boston. That's good news for Coakley. I'm beginning to get a little bit of the same feeling I got around midday while following New Hampshire in January 2008. Let's call it Coakley 50% Brown 48% and Kennedy 2%. I also don't buy into all the doom and gloom that a Brown victory might cause. If the GOP kills healthcare then they can't run on repealing it in November. The last time that the GOP focused solely on obstruction they killed their majority and brought a second presidential term to the democrats. With regards to Coakley lets all hope win or lose the democrats learn a bit from this election. She's been a terrible candidate. Now that doesn't mean that if she's elected she will be a terrible senator. It does however mean that the national and local party leadership will really need to examine how they choose their people. Someone that polls well with the base still might not poll well with independents and swing voters. People have to WANT to campaign. I've never run for office and I'm sure it's an exhausting and grueling experience. It has to be done though. I really have no idea how Coakely could even have been dismissive of standing outside of Fenway Park in the cold or how she could come off as ignorant on Red Sox baseball. The Red Sox are like a religion in Massachusetts. If you've never lived in Massachusetts it's hard to comprehend how Red Sox crazy the whole state is. If she survives it will be very impressive. I think it will be because in the last 48 hours Brown has gone from a handsome anti-establishment, down to earth guy to a bit more of a GOP rallying point on a national level. Massachusetts people don't always like their politicians but they really don't like the national Republican Party. When Romney won the governorship he was pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, and helped create a state healthcare program. He had to totally dismiss all those previous stands to be a viable Republican on the National stage.
by Shapper 2010-01-19 02:13PM | 2 recs
Was Coakley a terrible candidate or she ran a terrible campaign?
I think those two are different things. I think Coakley's bio is a great one. She already had won statewide election as AG. She was/is an attractive candidate. However she ran a terrible campaign thus far. I still cannot believe she only held 19 public events vs 60+ of Brown events.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Coakley
by louisprandtl 2010-01-19 02:40PM | 0 recs
Again trying to paste the bio link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Coakley
 Jerome, please make this website a bit more user friendly. It's driving me nuts!
by louisprandtl 2010-01-19 02:42PM | 0 recs
RE: Again trying to paste the bio link

autolinking is now back in the comments.  took it away to ensure it worked ok when other html links were already present in comment entry.

anyway here is your wikipedia link working:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Coakley

by Kyle Shank 2010-01-19 02:59PM | 0 recs
Thanks Kyle..that's a great help..
Now please bring back the comments viewer. NewsFeed is a poor subsitute for what we had before.
by louisprandtl 2010-01-19 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re:

55 - 45.....Brown wins.....

by lori 2010-01-19 02:00PM | 0 recs
Mr prediction

1-44 Brown.  For Coakley to win she needs African Americans to amount to at least 13% of the electorate and she needs the 18-29 vote to be at least 14% of the electorate. In the latter group she needs to get close the percentage in the DKOS poll among the 18-29 group (she leads by 26 in that group in that poll, only by 11 in the AGR poll).  In '06 the 18-29 group was 11% of the electorate but Patrick's margin in that group 44%.  In '08 the 18-29 group was 17% of the electorate and Obama's margin in that group was 58%.  This is also the group with the highest unemployment, and I am very worried that this fact will make the group less likely to vote and less Democratic in November.

I think the chance of an upset is bigger than people think.  But Brown's margin among independents I don't think will go down because it is based on perceptions about the economy.

Anecdoatally I do not hear good things about the turnout in Roxbury where it needs to be big.  I think there is a real chance Brown wins by 10 or more.

by fladem 2010-01-19 02:02PM | 0 recs
RE: Mr prediction

A number was cut off.  My prediction is 51-44.   I am having signficant issues with the new site....

by fladem 2010-01-19 02:03PM | 0 recs
my take

Turnout estimates vary wildly.  Snow and wintry mix, but hard to tell effect on turnout.

So here it is:

Brown 51.5

Coakley 46.5

Kennedy 2

A slight revision as Kennedy's share may be lower.  The fingerpointing is under way, but Obama needs a message overhaul
on the 27th.  The bank tax didn't gain traction, because of the credibility lost with the bailouts.  Obama's decline started with the bailouts, and he may not be able to recover.

 

 

by esconded 2010-01-19 02:05PM | 0 recs
Didn't gain traction?

Any evidence for that?

We are already seeing a message overhaul. If the fire oggers are skeptical today, that's almost irrelevant, as they represent such a tiny portion of the electorate.

My prediction is that Democrats become united behind Obama, and the only substantive finger pointing is at Coakley.

Obama's not up for releection until 2012. That's an eternity in politics.

And healthcare isn't over.

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-19 03:13PM | 0 recs
Same as I said at thge end of last week

I can go find the link if I win and prove just how awesome my predictive abilities are :), but I'll repeat it here (improving the accurace from my 49/49/2) win. Can someone make a post that announces the winner?

  1. Brown 49.3
  2. Coakley 48.7
  3. That other guy 2.0

Take it to the bank. And don't forget, today's magic number is 0.5%

If the margin is less than 0.5%, then there's a recount.

Also, who liked Nancy Pelosi coming out and saying that a Brown victory doesn't stop healthcare reform?

by NoFortunateSon 2010-01-19 03:09PM | 0 recs
RE: Same as I said at thge end of last week

You don't get to claim awesomeness until after the result.

by Jerome Armstrong 2010-01-19 04:36PM | 0 recs
Brown 53, Coakely 45, Kennedy 2

And God I hope I'm wrong.

by Drummond 2010-01-19 03:14PM | 0 recs
Where is the accountability?

It is clear Obama's strategy of kowtowing to the Blue Dogs did not help him one bit in getting independent support. Same with Health Care reform which succeeded in getting both the right and left angry. I love how Emanuel types would have pilloried Dean if he was in charege of the DNC right now. What are these geniuses doing? They decided to continue the Bush bailouts of banks. They decided to put in a weird hodgepodge of a health care bill that still does nothing for the middle class.

The funny thing is Republicans havent even been good at coming up with fresh ideas. It's the Democratic Party's lack of leadership in putting a cohesive unified plan out that is making them lose respect. Sure Obama has done things better than Bush overall, But any idiot could do that considering how horrible the Bush presidency was. Same with Senate Democrats who have been better than the Republicans, but are limited by 4 or 5 Blue Dogs who have way too much say in issues.

So who is going to pay for a slam dunk victory becoming either a very narrow victory or a loss today?

by Pravin 2010-01-19 03:18PM | 0 recs
Brown 82 Kennedy 17 Coakley 1

This is just to offset my prediction of last week that Coakley would still win by 8!

by howie14 2010-01-19 03:27PM | 0 recs
RE: MA Senate Prediction thread

Coakley - 49%

Brown - 48%

Kennedy - 3%

by FUJA 2010-01-19 03:48PM | 0 recs
Fingerpointing galore.

Right now the Dems are in full meltdown mode. Rahm is blaming coakley and Coakley's people are blaming the WH for getting too cozy with Wall Street. Either way, it seems like it's gonna be a long night. Jerome wrote in an earlier entry about how Obama is now on a populist message. The problem with that is after the revelations of the AIG bailout and sweetheart deals granted to Citi, it's hard to believe their sincerity when it comes to holding big banks accountable. There is rhetoric and then there is reality. Unfortunately the reality is biting main street and that's not good for the incumbent party.

by tarheel74 2010-01-19 05:03PM | 0 recs
turnout heavy - dems woke up

Coakley 49, Brown 47, Kennedy 4

Over the last few days the panic sweeping the state has woken up dems who were not planning on voting.  I can not tell you how many people have told me ( Same reaction to my Coakley button in a suburban supermarket as an African-American hair place in Boston) they are voting against Brown - not for Coakley.

The standard to measure projected turnout in polls like PPP was "excitement".  MA Dems are not excited about Coakley, but we are still voting.

by KenD 2010-01-19 05:38PM | 0 recs

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