Final PPP poll before the VA vote
by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Jun 07, 2009 at 07:08:03 PM EDT
The PPP model is expecting a turnout of 300K for Tuesday's primary in Virginia. There are others whom are modeling a turnout of 165-185K (here's one credible source). Now, those present radically different models to base an election on, here's what PPP has:
Three-way races can be like that, but the big caveat here is that PPP is relying on a lot of Independents and Republicans voting in the Democratic primary, and that Deeds leads among voters in NoVA over Moran. That's certainly not what the Moran campaign is finding with its huge ongoing effort of phone-banking:
In Richmond, Moran's canvass reached 22,399 likely voters and found that Moran is now within the margin of one of his opponents, while leading the other by several percentage points. And in Roanoke, where Moran just last week began his advertising campaign, his support has risen 150 percent among likely voters.
I really am not too excited about the conservative Democrat Creigh Deeds. Deeds has really come out of nowhere, and is a blank slate to most voters. He's not very environmental, being in favor of offshore oil drilling and new coal plants, and he's backwards on gay marriage. That said, he's better by far than Terry McAuliffe and way better than Bob McDonnell. As PPP shows, he captured the huge anti-McAuliffe vote here in the state in their polling, which he owes to Moran for creating. Without Moran beating the shit out of McAuliffe, there is no Deeds surge in the polls, but that's 3-way primaries. It's not issue-based at all, with the poll finding liberal NoVA Democratic voters backing the conservative-- just a surge of electability vs McAuliffe.
A 14-16% lead seems unbeatable, but remember that PPP is predicting a huge turnout too. I know both McAuliffe and Moran have much better field organizations than Deeds, by far-- its not even close. Deeds has gotten all the breaks in the polls; now, does he have the votes? The turnout will tell. There may also be a final SUSA poll out Monday.
The updated Pollster graph has a still very close race with Moran within 6% of Deeds.