Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

In 2006, the Democrats won the overall vote for the United States House of Representatives by around 7 percentage points. In 2008 their edge was closer to 9 percentage points. Could that number go up yet again in 2010? It's possible, says Democracy Corps (.pdf):

I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?

(DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE): 47 percent
Lean (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE): 5 percent
(REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE): 36 percent
Lean (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE): 2 percent

Total Democrats: 52 percent
Total Republicans: 39 percent

The Democrats' generic gubernatorial ballot lead for 2009 and 2010 doesn't look too much different than the figures above, with the party maintaining an overall 49 percent to 38 percent in the named ballot question (using the name of the incumbent of either party, where available, and "the Democratic candidate" or "the Republican candidate" to denote that incumbent's challenger).

As noted in the question asked of respondents in the poll, the 2010 elections are still far away, and a great deal can and will happen before voters go to the polls. Nevertheless, considering that the Republicans' share of the nationwide congressional vote has gone down in each of the last two consecutive elections and that current polling puts it on track to do the same next year, you might think that the party would begin to try to figure out another less unsuccessful track. Then again, perhaps not.

Tags: Governor 2010, House 2010 (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

This was interesting but with the GOP "civil war" taking place right now I'm not surprised that a unified Democratic Party has an advantage over the Republicans.

You can read more here.

by Natch 2009-06-05 05:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

This is wishful thinking on the part of the democrats.  With the unethical and corrupt congress and senate with this administration from both parties, but MOSTLY the democratic party and with an outright lying speaker of the house I doubt that the democrats will see a take all for 2010 elections.  

When I watch the news or hear things from different people all over I can see that the demorats are absolutely destroying themselves and their chances at getting another majority in either branch.  You have Pelosi lying, Dodd lying, Reid lying, Frank lying, Murtha involved in criminal acts with giving earmarks to questionable companies and stealing money for his own private airport, Waxmax and Baucus trying to steal as much money as they can with thier ridiculous cap and tax bill that will drive ALL energy prices up for EVERY AMERICAN to an extra $3000 a year, Obama trying to shove universal healthcare on the American people (and he did not win by a huge majority AND with a very unpopular republican candidate who ran the worst campaign in history with a lot of republicans and conservatives sitting this election out).  The American people have about had it with this administration and it's massive spending and debt it has put us into. I don't understand why the media keeps bending over and grabbing their ankles for Obama and the democrats when they are going bankrupt for doing so.  Can't they see that their partisan attitude towards Obama/dems is costing them money? Can't they see the American people are tryign to tell them something with how they are going bankrupt.  If any real journalists are out there I would suggest becoming bipartisan and reporting the truth like your supposed to, not cover up for Obama and democrats like you have for the past year or so.  We, the American people, know what your doing and will run you into the ground for it.  Shape up or we'll ship you out.  

Tell the truth media and quit polling only democrats for your questions.  You'll see there are millions of people fed up and are taking a HUGE interest in what is going on in Washington because of all of this spending.  

Tell the truth media.  Democrats DO NOT have a robust lead over GOP.  This is an outright lie.

by contesa 2009-06-05 07:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

You are a moron.  If we tried to be "fiscally responsible" during a recession like this, we would fall right into a depression.  

by Kent 2009-06-05 08:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Trollery

Did that poster, talk with my aunt?  That sounds suspiciously like the lamest 2 hours I'd spent in my life (my aunt went on a tirade on the phone).

At least the poster didn't ask for a BC.

by AZphilosopher 2009-06-05 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

What a hoot.  Bush wins by something like the slimmest margin ever for an incumbent president, and it's mandate city, baby!  Obama wins by nearly 200 electoral votes and it's like, well the other guy ran a bad campaign so he totally shouldn't govern like it was a real win or anything.  Pretty funny.

Pay no attention to the election results, definitely don't pay any attention to polls, just look at the photos from this here tea party!!!  The American people are obviously fed up with Obama.  Is it too soon to talk about impeachment?

by Steve M 2009-06-05 09:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

I am interested in your ideas and would like your free brochure.

by Jess81 2009-06-05 10:21AM | 0 recs
So desperate

it's sad...almost.

by DTOzone 2009-06-05 01:03PM | 0 recs
I worry about a

healthcare fail of a sufficiently large degree, that's about all that keeps me up with respect to Congress.  

by AZphilosopher 2009-06-05 08:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

I don't think democrats are going to do that well in 2010.  What goes up must eventually go down, and that holds true for democratic gains.  Plus, the economic news continues to be bad, with unemployment reaching 9.4% last month.  The economy will likely continue to look bad for another year or so.  I don't think dems are going to lose either house, but they could go back to the smaller margins they had after 2006.

by redguard57 2009-06-05 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

While unemployment reached 9.4%, the number of jobs shed was the lowest since last September.  The unemployment rate is likely to peak soon and then start falling by early 2010.  

by Kent 2009-06-05 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead

Good point re unemployment peaking.

by spirowasright 2009-06-05 03:42PM | 0 recs
Unemployment is a lagging indicator

Let's say the recession ends this quarter, which means it would end July 1st. We wouldn't know it ended July 1st until the 3Q is over in October.

Those who lose their jobs in June will be counted in the July unemployment rate, which would be AFTER the recession ended, but probably still rising.

The best sign that the economic crisis over is if unemployment stops rising or even falls...but we won't likely see that until many months after the recession and job losses end when companies start hiring again.

So unemployment will almost certainly crack 10% and will probably remain there for the better part of the year. If it begins to drop, then we're in fantastic shape.

Of course it doesn't mean it couldn't go back up again, but there's always that risk.

by DTOzone 2009-06-05 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Unemployment is a lagging indicator

As long as it doesnt go up until after the November elections, we are fine.  Unemployment usually is not that much of a lagging indicator.  It usually peaks around the same time the recession ends(except for in 1990-1991 and 2001).  

by Kent 2009-06-05 07:14PM | 0 recs
The gubernatorial races in NJ and Virginia

this year are problematic for Democrats, but not (yet) insurmountable.  If Republicans win either seat, it would be a rally cry for movement conservatives and could position them to win more seats in the legislature during the 2010 elections than the media would expect at this point. To temper that, we need to invest in making sure Gov. Corzine and whomever wins the Democratic nomination for the Virginia governor's race get our full focus and support.  The general election is only a few months away, and the polls are bleaker than they should be.

We've been on a good roll, for a few years now.  Let's make them weep bitter tears at the end of  this year too.

by West of the Fields 2009-06-05 07:36PM | 0 recs

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