Democrats Maintain Robust 2010 Lead
by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jun 05, 2009 at 03:31:24 AM EDT
In 2006, the Democrats won the overall vote for the United States House of Representatives by around 7 percentage points. In 2008 their edge was closer to 9 percentage points. Could that number go up yet again in 2010? It's possible, says Democracy Corps (.pdf):
I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)?
(DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE): 47 percent
Lean (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE): 5 percent
(REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE): 36 percent
Lean (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE): 2 percent
Total Democrats: 52 percent
Total Republicans: 39 percent
The Democrats' generic gubernatorial ballot lead for 2009 and 2010 doesn't look too much different than the figures above, with the party maintaining an overall 49 percent to 38 percent in the named ballot question (using the name of the incumbent of either party, where available, and "the Democratic candidate" or "the Republican candidate" to denote that incumbent's challenger).
As noted in the question asked of respondents in the poll, the 2010 elections are still far away, and a great deal can and will happen before voters go to the polls. Nevertheless, considering that the Republicans' share of the nationwide congressional vote has gone down in each of the last two consecutive elections and that current polling puts it on track to do the same next year, you might think that the party would begin to try to figure out another less unsuccessful track. Then again, perhaps not.