PA-Sen: Specter Weak In The General

A new Quinnipiac University poll gets a bit ahead of itself by not even entertaining the notion that Arlen Specter will be challenged for the Democratic nomination. Hopefully, Joe Sestak will have something to say about that in the coming months but in the meantime, here's a sort of baseline post-switch poll by which to gauge the race moving forward and it's really not great news for Specter.

According to the poll, Specter predictably beats Pat Toomey by a large margin and is statistically tied against former governor Tom Ridge, who is reportedly mulling jumping in to the Republican primary, but look at Specter's numbers here:

Specter 53
Toomey 33

Specter 46
Ridge 43

Barely above 50% against Toomey? Really? That's pathetic. And if Ridge gets in the race, Specter's share of all voting groups goes down including, significantly, Independents and Democrats.

Independent voters, who back Sen. Specter over Toomey 45 - 36 percent, switch to Ridge 47 - 37 percent if he becomes a candidate. The former Republican Governor also gets 14 percent of the Democratic vote, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

With Specter as the nominee, there will be little case to be made that he would be a better Senator than Ridge as both are considered moderates except, of course, that one of them has revealed himself to be a sell-out for political expediency while the other has not. If Arlen Sepcter is challenged for the Democratic nomination, whatever candidate emerges will have had to prove his Democratic bona fides and thus stake out a position more clearly to the left of Ridge. Any Democrat can beat Toomey but as long as a Ridge candidacy is possible, it's even more important that there is a contested Democratic primary next year.

Tags: PA-Sen, srlen specter (all tags)



I don't agree

Look, I'm not fan of Specter, but leading Toomey by 20 points isn't pathetic. Republicans have a 40% bottom in Pennsylvania at worst. These are Bob Casey numbers. I don't think Sestak would fair better. 20 point lead for a Democrat is pretty damn good. The pathetic number here in 33% by Toomey.

Ridge I think can beat any Democrat, Specter or Sestak.

by DTOzone 2009-05-04 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen: Specter Weak In The General

What in the world would make you think that Mr. "Let's change the Terror condition for political reasons" isn't a political sellout?  Ridge is a political hack just like Arlen.  Only difference is Tom lied to all of us to help his boss win an election and Arlen as always is just out for himself.

by Demo Dan in Dayton 2009-05-04 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen: Specter Weak In The General

Sestak leaving PA-07 open and running for Senate would be playing with fire.  I think Ridge would probably beat him and we would also lose PA-07, which has a deep Republican bench.  

by Kent 2009-05-04 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen: Specter Weak In The General

Good point, but it's a gambit that seems worthwhile.  The Dems currently have such a large lead in the house that one (or one additional) loss isn't a big deal.  But to pick off Specter's seat with a "real" Democrat would make a huge difference to the Congressional math.

by the mollusk 2009-05-04 01:49PM | 0 recs
Re: PA-Sen: Specter Weak In The General

It is a very big deal.  We have tons of very vulnerable House incumbents and having to deal with yet another seat to defend would be a big problem.  

by Kent 2009-05-04 03:59PM | 0 recs


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