Trailing in Polls, Jon Corzine Releases New Ads

In a poll released today by Rasmussen Reports, the incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine trails his presumed Republican challenger Chris Christie by nine percentage points. In the match-up against Chris Christie, a former United States Attorney, Governor Corzine trails 47% to 38%.

Mr. Christie is however facing a June primary against the former mayor of Bogota, Steve Lonegan who believes progressive taxation is "immoral" and is thus advocating a flat income tax of 2.9 percent on all state residents. And according to the New Jersey Star Ledger, Lonegan also would distribute school aid on a strict per-pupil basis -- meaning no extra money for poor urban districts leading to big property tax reductions in the suburbs, but huge increases in the cities. Still a poll earlier this week also from Rasmussen shows Chris Christie attracting 39% of the state's GOP voters to Steve Lonegan's 29%.

For Corzine, this latest poll is a mixed bag. He trails both of his GOP challengers, though the race with Lonegan is within the margin of error, but on the other hand, Corzine's numbers are actually an improvement. In March, Governor Corzine trailed Christie by 15 points.

More from Rasmussen:

New Jersey polls often shows Republican candidates polling well in the spring and then shows Democrat gaining ground in the fall. A Republican has not won a statewide election in the Garden State since 1997. On a generic basis, 48% of New Jersey voters would like to see a Democrat as Governor while just 34% would prefer a Republican. That political gravity is almost certain to help the incumbent as Election Day draws near. Corzine may also get a boost from President Obama—64% of New Jersey voters approve of the way the President is handling his job. That figure includes 47% who Strongly Approve. Just 25% Strongly Disapprove. As for Corzine, just 9% Strongly Approve of the way he’s performed as Governor while 38% Strongly Disapprove. Bleak as those numbers are, they do reflect an improvement since March. Overall, 40% say they at least somewhat approve of the job Corzine’s been doing. That’s up seven points in two months. When it comes to personal favorability ratings, Christie comes out on top. Fifty-one percent (51%) have at least a somewhat favorable view of him. Forty-four percent (44%) say the same about Corzine and 43% hold that view of Lonegan. None of the three have strong followings. Just 13% have a Very Favorable opinion of Christie while 11% are that enthusiastic about Corzine or Lonegan. However, the Republicans get a boost from the fact that 33% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of their Governor. Just 9% are that negative about Christie, 12% offer that opinion about Lonegan. Not surprisingly, the Republican candidates are less well known and the Democratic campaign will certainly do its best to fill in the blanks for voters. All this suggests that it’s premature to write Corzine’s political obituary before his Republican opponent is decided upon and better known.

Jon Corzine, not dead yet.

Tags: Campaign Ads, Jon Corzine, New Jersey Governors Race (all tags)



down but not out

I'd say Corzine has got a 40% chance of winning.
Lonegan trails 39-29 in the GOP primary, which mean Christie has to earn the GOP nod.

Corzine's hope is Obama's approval in NJ and the generic pregerence.

Assuming it's Christie, the strategy is to tie him to Bush and challenge him on privacy as well as his alternatives on taxs and budgets.

A good ad, but I want to see some attacks.

by esconded 2009-05-14 04:51PM | 0 recs
way too early for attacks

Corzine has to work on repairing his image first, in my opinion.

by desmoinesdem 2009-05-15 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Trailing in Polls

Unbelievable that a candidate would put up a TV spot and not have its website on it, in 2009. But then, if you took a look at what Corzine is doing online, you'd not be surprised.

And this compared to his '05 race, when Matt Stoller was on board the campaign.

Then there's the bizzare world of the national netroots sitting on their hands while Terry McAuliffe re-creates himself as the next Obama... arg.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-05-14 06:21PM | 0 recs
you haven't seen bad political websites

until you've seen the Iowa Senate Republicans site. I'm not even a visual person, and it's painful to look at.

As for content, the legislative session ended on April 26, but you wouldn't know it from looking at the "latest news" on the front page of the Iowa Senate Republicans site.

by desmoinesdem 2009-05-15 06:40AM | 0 recs


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