The Afghan Endgame Involves Political Reconciliation

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates gave an interview yesterday to Tavis Smiley of PBS (watch it at PBS) that was refreshingly candid and frank. While the interview was wide-ranging covering topics from Iraq to re-enlistment quotas to intelligence gathering to Iran, the Secretary's comments on Afghanistan deserve greater attention. Here's the relevant part of the transcript:

Tavis: You mentioned Afghanistan earlier, Mr. Secretary. Let's travel there quickly. I don't mean to make you political in this sense. We all know and acknowledge you were not part of the Obama campaign. President Obama, once elected, asked you to stay on and you agreed to serve and I'm honored to have you on the program.

That said, there were expectations that many Americans had about how he was going to handle Iraq, how he was going to handle Afghanistan. Many Americans who voted for him didn't think that meant sending 17,000 more troops to Afghanistan. How should the American public contextualize that decision?

Gates: I think that what the president has decided is really quite consistent with what he said during the campaign. I think that he made clear during the campaign he intended to send more troops to Afghanistan. I think that he made clear he was going to draw down our troops in Iraq. He had a 16-month period that he talked about in Iraq. He also said he would listen to the ground commanders and it was based on that dialogue that he agreed to 19 months instead of 16.

So I think that he has kept the commitments that he made during the campaign, but he has shown some flexibility in terms of the realities on the ground, I think, in both places.

Tavis: What does it mean that everybody in authority in Washington - in the White House, in Congress, in the Defense Department - everybody agrees that we are simply not winning in Afghanistan. What does that mean?

Gates: Well first of all, I think the situation is more complex than that in the sense that there are areas of the country, particularly in the north and in the west, that are relatively peaceful and where there has not been a significant spike in violence.

The eastern area is not in bad shape. The biggest problem that we face is in the southern part of Afghanistan, which is sort of the Taliban homeland. So we have a different situation in different parts of the country, and it's in - I would say it's in the south where we would all agree we're not winning, and that's one of the reasons why we're going to increase our troop presence there as well as the civilian presence.

Tavis: The White House has floated Mr. Obama - President Obama himself, Vice President Biden. They have floated this notion of perhaps working with the Taliban, trying to get those who are disaffected, those who have a different point of view after all this time, working with those members - certain members of the Taliban to help us fight Al Qaeda. Your thoughts on that?

Gates: I think almost all insurgencies, in the end game, involve political reconciliation. The issue is it needs to be on the terms of the government of Afghanistan. This is a matter mainly between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.

There are elements of the Taliban that are absolutely irreconcilable and frankly will have to be killed. But there may be other elements that are willing to - and maybe a majority who are in it who do it because it's a job, because they get paid. There may be some who do it for other reasons, but I think there is the potential for reconciliation.

I think the key is it must be organized between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban, and I believe it needs to be on the terms set by the government of Afghanistan.

Tavis: What would be the incentive for those who chose to fight with us against Al Qaeda, what would the incentive be?

Gates: Well, to bring peace to the villages and towns and countryside of their homeland, of Afghanistan. There's some evidence that a fair number of the Taliban are not committed Islamists or extremists, and so they may be able to be wooed away.

Secretary Gates, I think, accurately clarified the 'not winning in Afghanistan' remarks. Vice President Biden caused a stir earlier this week in Brussels when he replied to a question imprecisely, "We are not now winning the war, but the war is far from lost." Secretary Gates was more precise. The problem is clearly most acute in the southern provinces and to a significant degree in the eastern provinces. These areas, of course, are the ones that ring Pakistan and that form Pashtunistan. Still, to win in Afghanistan does mean pacifying the Pashtun homeland and just as important, if not more, solving Pakistan. The Vice President, however, might have added the war is also far from won.

It should also not be lost that the Obama Administration appreciates that in the end game a solution in Afghanistan will involve political reconciliation among the Afghans themselves. The war in Afghanistan and Pakistan is our biggest current geo-political challenge. Getting the strategy right, having the right mix of bigger sticks and tastier carrots, having a non-military path forward, having clear and attainable goals and most of all recognizing that both Afghans and the Pakistanis have to take the lead in resolving their own security issues is of the utmost importance. The more we can encourage political reconciliation in Afghanistan, the fewer troops we will have to commit ultimately.

Any sustainable peace will require political reconciliation and increased economic development. The political reconciliation must be led by Afghans themselves and it does seem some strides are being made in that effort. The economic development part continues to lag and moreover there is an opium poppy trade issue to solve. This has been a generational conflict and we should be cognizant that it is likely to require a generational effort to resolve and for all the complexities of Afghanistan, they pale in comparison to the problems in Pakistan which continues to descend into a madness of its own making.

Today in the New York Times, veteran journalist and President emeritus of the Council of Foreign Relations Leslie Gelb outlined a brief plan on how to get out of Afghanistan:

The first step is to provide significantly increased economic support, arms and training to friendly Afghans as United States combat forces gradually depart over, say, three years. We could use the intervening time to increase present counterinsurgency operations to better protect Afghans and give them a boost to fight on their own, if they have the will.

The second step is to try to separate less extremist elements of the Taliban from their leadership and from Al Qaeda. Mr. Obama is already considering reaching out to Taliban moderates, and he could do this through the Afghan government and covert contacts. No group is monolithic once tested with carrots and sticks, as we saw in Northern Ireland and Iraq.

The Taliban are no exception. While most of them want to drive America out, they have no inherent interest in exporting terrorism. As nasty as the Taliban are, America's vital interests do not require their exclusion from power in Afghanistan, so long as they don't support international terrorists.

Third, while we should talk to the Taliban, Washington can't rely on their word and so must fashion a credible deterrent. The more the Taliban set up shop inside Afghanistan, the more vulnerable they will be to American punishment. Taliban leaders must have good reason to fear America's military reach. Their leaders could be hit by drones or air strikes. The same goes for their poppy fields, from which they derive considerable income. Most important, Mr. Obama must do what the Bush team inexplicably never seemed to succeed in doing -- stop the flow of funds to the Taliban that comes mainly through the Arab Gulf states. At the same time, he could let some money trickle in to reward good behavior.

Fourth, President Obama has to ring Afghanistan with a coalition of neighbors to show the Taliban they have no place to seek succor, even after an American departure. The group would include China, India, Russia, NATO allies, and yes, Iran. They all share a considerable interest in stemming the spread of Afghan drugs and Islamic extremism. China and Russia should be more willing to help in this anti-Taliban effort as the American military presence recedes from their sensitive borders.

All fair points but then again, Mr. Gelb comes to the same impasse that I have come to and remain unable to solve.

Then there's Pakistan, both the heart of the problem and the key to its solution. The peaceful future of the region depends on the resolve and ability of Pakistan's secular and moderate religious leaders to provide decent government to their people.

Pakistan is the problem but political or regional reconciliation of any kind has never been a Pakistani strong suit and it's fair to point out that while India has made significant strides in raising the living standards of its people, Pakistan has not. So the question really in the end is what do we do about Pakistan?  

Tags: Afghanistan, pakistan, Secretary Robert Gates, US Foreign Policy (all tags)

Comments

9 Comments

The Afghan Endgame Involves Leaving

All just silly slogans that mean nothing. The tactics remain the same, despite the hullabaloo. Everything else is just shadow dancing to entertain with distraction.

I'm still waiting for someone to link to me where Obama said he'd be deploying a surge of troops to Afghanistan, 17K to begin with, and more to come, during the campaign. Yes, he talked platitides, he did that with a lot of things that he had no intention of following through on, and hasn't (or has already reversed himself).

This is a failed policy, and Obama is dragging down the Democratic Party by leading the US into a deeper occupation of Afghanistan, and  a continued war in the middle east.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-03-13 05:04AM | 0 recs
Re: The Afghan Endgame Involves Leaving

Well, I am an old fart who doesn't know how to do links, but I just spent 30 seconds on a google search and cam up with an ABC News report by Jake Tapper from August 2007 calling for shifting at least two brigades from Iraq to Afghanistan. I am sure that your teeming hordes of researchers could find more.

by anoregonreader 2009-03-13 08:22AM | 0 recs
Re: The Afghan Endgame Involves Leaving

I do think it means something. We are not going to leave Afghanistan based on a political decision made by us. If we leave Afghanistan it will be because we a) defeated OR b) stabilized the place enough that it can run on its own. Political reconciliation should move the country in that direction.

I agree with you that Afghanistan is a failed policy. Bush pushed the problem into Pakistan and made it worse because we now have the whole of the Pashtun homeland up in open revolt.

It is clear that this debate has to take place. It's important that progressive community know both the cost of escalation but also the cost of failure.

If the endgame in Afghanistan involves leaving, and I agree with you that it does, how do we get there?

Political reconciliation, I argue, is one way to get there.

by Charles Lemos 2009-03-13 04:20PM | 0 recs
Are you fuckign serious??

Obama promised increase in afgahn troop levels on most of his FP speeches. Are you looking for exact 17000 number  promise or the pledge to increase it? because the latter  was hammered again and again in most of his speeches. against Hilary and against McCain (saying Iraq has distracted us on Afghanistan.)

Here is one example to his promise to increase troop levels in Afghanistan:

"Reset Our Military: As Obama removes our combat brigades from Iraq, he will send at least two additional
brigades to Afghanistan, where the Taliban is resurgent. He will also provide our armed forces with the reset
capability that they need. He will replace essential equipment, and he will ensure that our men and women in
uniform get the care and support they have earned."
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/Defense_F act_Sheet_FINAL.pdf

But since you still seem bitter and claim he broke most of his promises so far (which is false) It is not beyond you to make stuff like this up.

Oh and non partial organizations put his promises broken at 2. he is working on and has fulfilled 70+ of his promises in 50 days. that's more than 1 promise a day kept so far. Very impressive by any measure for his allies.
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/ promises/

by Burryz 2009-03-13 08:31PM | 0 recs
Different political ideas? Solution? Kill them.

That's the shorter version. Granted not only do they have different political ideas but also they are believed to be wanting to kill us. Or our allies in "the government". Either way just killing them is a non-progressive, authoritarian approach. Certainly not my politics. So maybe I need to watch out too, eh?

Gates: I think almost all insurgencies, in the end game, involve political reconciliation. The issue is it needs to be on the terms of the government of Afghanistan. This is a matter mainly between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban.

There are elements of the Taliban that are absolutely irreconcilable and frankly will have to be killed.

(my emphasis)

by Jeff Wegerson 2009-03-13 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Different political ideas?

Well, it is hard to come to terms with men who go around throwing battery acid at girls on their way to school so as to blind them.

Ultimately, this will become a hearts and minds battle. I have argued at some point that means dismantling the madrassas across South Asia especially the 10,000 or so that offer a major in unadulterated Wahhibism and minors in terrorism.

by Charles Lemos 2009-03-13 04:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The Afghan Endgame

Their leaders could be hit by drones or air strikes. The same goes for their poppy fields, from which they derive considerable income.

The problem with this is that the poppy fields are often the only income for poor farmers who don't have access to a legitimate economy. We should be going after heroin processors and traffickers, but the transition from a poppy economy to a licit economy is going to be a slow one, and bombing poor farmers' fields drives those farmers into the Taliban.

by Satori 2009-03-13 08:13AM | 0 recs
How do wars end ?

I am not being facetious, that is an honest question.

I am asking because not very many books have been written about how wars end (only 1 that I know of).  By comparison hundred (or thousands) will tell you how to initiate a war, and how to fight.

by Ravi Verma 2009-03-13 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: How do wars end ?

It's a good question. This war is becoming a counter-insurgency.

by Charles Lemos 2009-03-13 04:28PM | 0 recs

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