RightWingNews poll

Who knows how much of a basis this poll has of being the Republican base, but lets assume it tells us something about who the Republicans nominate in 2012:

Yesterday, I polled RWN's readers on the following question:

   If the 2012 Republican primary were today, which of these candidates would you vote for?

The results were a surprise, not because of who came in first, but because of the huge margin and how weak the rest of the field turned out to be in comparison to the front runner:

1) Sarah Palin: 46% (284 votes)

  1. Dick Cheney: 8% (52 votes)
  2. Bobby Jindal: 8% (51 votes)
  3. Mitt Romney: 7% (45 votes)
  4. Rick Santorum: 4% (25 votes)
  5. Ron Paul: 3% (24 votes)
  6. Tim Pawlenty: 3% (24 votes)
  7. Newt Gingrich: 3% (23 votes)
  8. Haley Barbour: 2% (17 votes)
  9. Mike Pence: 2% (14 votes)
  10. Rudy Guiliani: 2% (14 votes)
  11. Mike Huckabee: 2% (13 votes)
  12. Jeb Bush: 1% (12 votes)
  13. John Thune: 1% (8 votes)
  14. Lou Dobbs: 0% (0 votes)
I'm sure they'll be many other GOP polls done online, and maybe this one just got freeped or the like. And how the hell does Dick Cheney get second?  A Palin-Cheney ticket for 2012.  Do you realize how far Obama would have to fail to lose that contest?

And Rick Santorum is running too?  Oh my. Lets get there. It's a lot better than reading day in and day out about the '10 trainwreck.

btw, I found out where McCain's "Country First" slogan originated. It's from Republican James Blaine, back during the 1862 midterm, when he was bringing together a pro-Union coalition of Republican and Democratic northerners for the midterm (which proved very unsuccessful), though it's "Unity" coalition was what Lincoln used in 1864 (National Unity) for his re-elect party umbrella. I came across it reading "Reelecting Lincoln: The Battle for the 1864 Presidency" which is a fabulous book. I'm unsure whether McCain's strategy was aware of the previous use of the slogan, though it seems doubtful. I always thought it was precursor to his going to choose Lieberman for the ticket, and instead he gave us Palin.

It seems to me too, that my first instinct at seeing her in action, that she was going to be a strong opponent to progressives for a long time to come, has panned out as to be the case. And, as long as she doesn't run, she will become very popular (approvals in the mid 50's) and have a loud megaphone. If she runs though, it falls apart. She's likable and good looking, and she taken to social media like a pro, but really has no shot at being elected to national office.

Tags: Sarah Palin (all tags)



Re: RightWingNews poll

Let's face it - we don't know what will happen 3 yrs hence. Right now it's basically name rec. Palin has been in the news. And Cheney has been somewhat there.

by vecky 2009-12-09 04:03PM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

Rather than National polls or blog polls, I think the only polls worth noting are the state polls of Iowa, NH and SC.

Iowa - Either Palin or Huckabee

NH - Romney

SC - Winner of Iowa and NH face off.

by vecky 2009-12-09 04:19PM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

The poll is crap...neither Palin or Cheney has a chance in hell of even getting the nomination

by BuckeyeBlogger 2009-12-09 04:15PM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

That's what they said about McCain...

by vecky 2009-12-09 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

That's not true.  McCain was a favorite going into the election cycle.  The wheels then came off (poor results, gaffes, etc.), which caused the doubts.  That can happen to any candidate.

by orestes 2009-12-09 04:59PM | 0 recs

No he wasn't, McCain was barely registering until after Iowa when it became clear he was the only one who had a chance at winning...Giuliani was always the favorite, then Romney.

by ND22 2009-12-09 05:09PM | 0 recs

You need to learn to read a bit closer.  I said a favorite.  He was still a darling of the press, but not the flavor of the day.  Also, you will note my comment was in response to someone who was equating Palin's position with that of McCain.  I don't think that's apposite.

What does this WHAAAAAAAAA? mean?  Is that supposed to be an insult?  Surely, you can do better, no?  

by orestes 2009-12-09 05:16PM | 0 recs
He wasn't even a favorite

he was in last fucking place, he barely cracked 5% for the most of the campaign until Giuliani faltered.

Insult? WHAAAAAAAAAAAA?= A very surprised "what?"

by ND22 2009-12-09 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: He wasn't even a favorite

Fair enough.  

By favorite, I mean that he was treated as a viable candidate, as opposed to say Paul or Huckabee (until his minor surge).  Yikes- I don't want to be in the position of trying to prop up McCain's legacy.  He is one of my least favorite politicians (after the Cheneys).  That crack years ago about Chelsea Clinton told me everything I needed to know about that scumbag.  

by orestes 2009-12-09 05:22PM | 0 recs
at the start of 2007, McCain was over 25%

close behind Giuliani. He took the nosedive later.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-r ep-pres-primary.php

He was definitely an early favorite.

by John DE 2009-12-09 06:08PM | 0 recs
what I'm saying is

ND22 is 100% wrong.

In 2005, McCain was in the 20s, which was the lead.

by John DE 2009-12-09 06:10PM | 0 recs
How far back do we want to go here?

I mean do we want to look at polls from 2002?

In 2005, the Republican Party was an early favorite. I'm talking about once the campaign got started im mid to late 2007.

by ND22 2009-12-09 06:26PM | 0 recs
Re: How far back do we want to go here?

this is a moot point...neithe palin nor cheney has a snowballs chance. Palin may be the darlingto some on the far right, but the moderate and more sane conservative members of the general public think she is an idiot.

by BuckeyeBlogger 2009-12-10 03:39AM | 0 recs
Re: at the start of 2007, McCain was over 25%

Thanks for the help.  I admit I was too lazy last night to search for support.  It all is a bit of an unnecessary digression.  

by orestes 2009-12-10 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

From the Dem side, a more interesting point would be - does Obama keep Biden as VP? Or does he pick someone else so they can carry the torch in 2016?

by vecky 2009-12-09 04:20PM | 0 recs
That's a good question,...

...and I think the far more insightful one. If Obama were to replace Biden, who would it be with?

by NoFortunateSon 2009-12-09 06:54PM | 0 recs
Re: That's a good question,...

I was thinking Hillary.

Yes she says she doesn't want it, but that's what you have to say when your SOS. I can't really think of anyone else...

by vecky 2009-12-09 07:32PM | 0 recs

To do such a switch will require great political skill, and you kind of have to guess what the political landscape will be like.

Right now, the GOP is dead, but they won't stay dead forever. The real goal is to keep them from power for 12 years or so to effect the real and lasting change this country needs.

In 2016, people will be tired of Obama. How does the VP come on and say that even though people are tired of Obama, I will offer a new direction?

by NoFortunateSon 2009-12-09 08:35PM | 0 recs
The GOP is not dead

They are likely to win control of Congress next year and have been able to pretty much stop Democrats from passing anything during their high watermark period.  

by Kent 2009-12-09 08:48PM | 0 recs
I know that's what you wish, troll

But even under the worst scenario, they aren't likely to gain control. But keep wishing.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-12-10 07:20AM | 0 recs
Two questions

1. Does Obama still beat Palin if he's at 30% approval?

2.  If unemployment stays high or Afghanistan is a quagmire, does Obama get a primary opponent?

by esconded 2009-12-09 04:25PM | 0 recs
and a similarly relevant question

if the sun explodes and the oceans turn to jello, will my Christmas lights go out?

by ND22 2009-12-09 04:28PM | 0 recs
Re: and a similarly relevant question

heh.  Thanks.  I think I'll use that as my Facebook status.

by fogiv 2009-12-09 05:06PM | 0 recs
Holy Cr@p!

Me too! That's the biggest LOL of the day.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-12-09 06:54PM | 0 recs
Re: and a similarly relevant question
Yes!      I just wanted to be on record.
Thank you.. Thank you very much.
by CutAgWelfare 2009-12-09 11:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Two questions

I'd say no, to the first, as  I think he does lose to anyone at some point, and my guess would be that its around 35-40% approval where he's lost Florida and the Midwest.

I don't see how he avoids getting a primary challenger if certain things come about. First, Iraq, which is already re-falling apart right now, would have to cause him to go against his pullout promise; unemployment above 10%; a staggering growth of the deficit; a quagmire in Afghanistan. But that's the perfect hellish storm, and unless it does wind up like that, Obama has a lot of institutional slack between now and then.... plus, who is going to run against him?  Not Dean, not Gore, not Feingold, there's no Rep out there leading the charge, we don't have a person that is there to make the challenge.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-12-10 08:49AM | 0 recs
Palin's been in the news a lot lately

She's not going to be doing a national book tour with tons of tv exposure every month between now and the next election.

It would be a gift for her to get the nomination, but I don't think we'll be that lucky.

Pawlenty seems like the sleeper to me. He could be the last one standing after all other candidates are knocked out.

by desmoinesdem 2009-12-09 04:40PM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

She will be the nominee of the teabag party, a new third party that will be formed by Fox News.

by LordMike 2009-12-09 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

How does one obtain an invite to the teabag party?

by the mollusk 2009-12-10 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

There's really no telling what will happen with Palin.  Think about it, she's only been in the national consciousness for about 1 year.  Practically everyone who is able to form an opinion has one about Sarah Palin - and one that is not going to change any time soon.  And yet she only garners 46 % support among the right wingers.  That should correspond to around 20-30 % of the total population.  The only way for her to become more popular is to become less crazy, not more crazy.  And what does that do to her crazy base?  It'll peel away at least some of them.  I think her star has risen to its apex.  She may run.  Hell, she may even win the primary,  but that could very well be the end of Sarah Palin.

by the mollusk 2009-12-10 06:51AM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

She won't run for the simple reason she can't run and only do interviews on right-wing radio and Faux. And the debates, let's not forget the debates.

But I hope she runs. I do hope...

by vecky 2009-12-10 09:40AM | 0 recs
Re: RightWingNews poll

If George Bush can debate, Sarah Palin can debate.  What's that saying?  "The Presidential Election isn't Jeopardy, it's American Idol".

by the mollusk 2009-12-10 09:51AM | 0 recs


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