House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

I'm trying to figure out how the Republicans are supposed to have a legitimate shot at retaking the House in 2010 but am still getting stuck on the math. As I noted last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was, as of the latest numbers, sitting on a net 5.5 times more money in the bank than the National Republican Congressional Committee, with the NRCC holding roughly enough money to competitively play in -- no joke -- one or two congressional districts. And where is the NRCC spending money right now? Not on offense but on defense.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is up on radio airwaves with a spot blasting Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D), who announced earlier this year that he is challenging Rep. Charlie Dent (R) in the eastern Pennsylvania 15th district.

The NRCC would not divulge the size of the buy, but their early purchase signifies that this is likely to be one of the top targeted races of the 2010 cycle. The radio spot, "It's a Callahan Christmas," follows Dent's 10,000 robocall "offensive" against Callahan earlier this month.

If the Republicans need to pick up more than 40 seats in order to retake the House, their campaign arm only has enough money to play in a couple of races, and at present the place where the NRCC is spending its cash is in a district with a vulnerable GOP incumbent -- a defensive rather than an offensive move -- how, again, are Republicans supposed to regain the majority?

Tags: Fundraising, House 2010, NRCC (all tags)



Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

THey will not pick up 40 seats due to demographic issues etc. But they will pick up 20 or more seats. The only reason why we are not going to see a blood bath is structural advantage. That's your party has left.

by bruh3 2009-12-15 03:55PM | 0 recs
a net loss of fewer than 20 seats

would be a good night for us. Losing 30 would not surprise me. I don't think we will have enough open seats to defend to give the Rs a realistic shot at winning the majority back.

by desmoinesdem 2009-12-15 04:36PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

" how, again, are Republicans supposed to regain the majority? "

Because progressives and liberals will take their balls and go home and sulk.

by vecky 2009-12-15 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

The party has the power to change that outcome. But because you tend to blame the voter rather than the leadership, that will not happen. Thus guaranteeing the outcome you whine about. As I told someone else who attacked me for pointing out my feeling over the party- if the polling is right, and the returns from this year are right- you can whine as much as you want, but you will either deal with this now or next year at the ballot box. It is unto you. Not me or anyone else who sees the party as now captured by the right.

by bruh3 2009-12-15 04:09PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

If you think the democratic party has been captured by the right, then your not very familiar with the right. Maybe you should attend a couple of tea-party meetings.

by vecky 2009-12-15 04:32PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

You may have a point. I don't think this will be that much of a blood bath, but if you listen to all the widdle Blog Birchers and on the rest of the web, one might get another idea.

by spirowasright 2009-12-15 04:15PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

Yes, I and other bloggers are making up the polls that say the Democratic base is demoralized and we made up the results in NJ and VA. You got us.

by bruh3 2009-12-15 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

Corzine was a highly progressive Governor

Deeds was a highly conservadem candidate

Democrats still won in Ny-23 even though the bloggers were meh and the right was energized.

Those results had to do more with local situations and the economy rather than anything happening in Congress.

by vecky 2009-12-15 04:46PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

The base did not show up in either VA or NJ. We only won NY 23 due to a crazy nut job on the other side. The races tell us a lot about the view of the base about the party.

by bruh3 2009-12-15 05:05PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

Crazy-nut job on the other side represents the majority of the GOP. So if that is all it takes to win, we're safe.

by vecky 2009-12-15 05:09PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

One of them won in Virginia.  The crazy nut job can win if our base is demoralized. That's zero sum game of win or lose voting, attacking your base and piss poor policy making. Polling has been done on the public option and the health care bill. 30 percent of Democrats said they are less likely to show up next year because of a bad health care bill. While you and others are busy protecting President Obama, you ignore what his policy compromises will be doing to the rest of the party. Reid and Dodd are gone. There will be more. Just like Clinton before him, Obama will protect his own interest at the detriment of the party.

by bruh3 2009-12-15 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

He ran as a moderate. Which he isn't, but that's how he ran.

But I'm sure your happy. Teach those Dems a lesson!  Clinton was a pretty popular president. It's sad the so called base abandoned him.

by vecky 2009-12-15 06:13PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

Congrats, you got me! Zing!

I am all about personality, being petty and being a partisan over personality. Indeed, you can go back to find my arguments changing week to week to week depending on what personalities  say and do- oh, wait, uhm-

That's why my diaries focus on policy like whether junk insurance will truly prevent deaths, wage deflation, neoliberalism, wage stagnation, health care cost containment, negotiation strategy for winning the public option, gay rights,  supreme court appointments and much much more.

It is all a Trojan horse to lull you into a false sense of security about my "true interests." That's why Steve M corrected you last night.

The bottom line is that the base did not show up. The polling data backs up the view that the base is demoralized.  Deal with or not. Blame me and bloggers for all you want. You still lose if they don't show up next year.

by bruh3 2009-12-15 06:33PM | 0 recs
Re: House Republicans Forced to Play Defense

It's nothing to be with personality, it's all about governing. Clinton, moderate-dem though he was was way better than the alternatives - Bush, Perot, Dole. And he was a hell of a lot better than the guy who came after him. Maybe folk thought there was no difference. Well maybe not, but the rights can do a hell of a lot more damage.

by vecky 2009-12-15 07:30PM | 0 recs
Re: depends on the demos

Im just very nervous because of Obama's 30% approval rating...30%.

Whatever house races you're working on should fire your ass.

by lojasmo 2009-12-16 02:40AM | 0 recs


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