Gallup: Dems Jump Back in 2010 Lead

This doesn't yet seem to be garnering the type of round-the-clock coverage received last month when Gallup showed Republicans narrowly leading on the 2010 generic congressional ballot, and I'm not holding my breath for it either, but today Gallup released new numbers showing the Democrats retaking their lead ahead of the 2010 midterms as Independents begin swinging away from the GOP.

Democrats have regained the slim edge they enjoyed earlier this year over Republicans in the latest update of Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, and now have a slight 48% to 45% lead among registered voters. After having been behind in July and October, Republicans had moved ahead by four points in a Nov. 5-8 poll conducted just after the off-year elections.

The major cause of the movement between November and the current poll is the changing preferences of independents. In the latest poll, conducted Dec. 11-13, independent registered voters tilt only slightly toward the Republican candidate, by 44% to 40%. In the November poll, independents' preference for the Republican candidate was 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain the allegiance of their bases, with 93% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and an identical 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.

I have a request in for the regional breakdown of these numbers so we can get an even better sense of where movement is occurring around the country. But for now it appears that with Independent voters cutting their preference for the GOP by a net 18 points over just the last month -- a month rife with Republican obstructionism on key issues ranging from healthcare reform to Wall Street regulation -- the Democrats' hopes in 2010 are looking rosier.

Tags: Generic Congressional Ballot (all tags)



Re: Gallup: Dems Jump Back in 2010 Lead

This is good news...

for John McCain!

I'm surprised they didn't poll the tea-party party.

by vecky 2009-12-14 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup: Dems Jump Back in 2010 Lead

Apparently Independents have slept a little since the New Jersey and Virginia state elections.

by spirowasright 2009-12-14 01:33PM | 0 recs
I get the impression it's still very fluid

But good news nonetheless.

I would be very surprised if the losses in 2010 turn either house (or come that close), even with a setback on HCR which appears to be happening.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-12-14 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup: Dems Jump Back in 2010 Lead

Can't really explain the day to day movements, but it certainly helps that the Republicans are a really really lousy alternative.

by Steve M 2009-12-14 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup: Dems Jump Back in 2010 Lead

Exactly! Like what is the GOP health care plan anyway?

DeMit was on the other day talking about the need to privatize social security and turn medicare into a voucher system.

by vecky 2009-12-14 05:40PM | 0 recs


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