Gallup: Dems Jump Back in 2010 Lead
by Jonathan Singer, Mon Dec 14, 2009 at 12:01:08 PM EST
This doesn't yet seem to be garnering the type of round-the-clock coverage received last month when Gallup showed Republicans narrowly leading on the 2010 generic congressional ballot, and I'm not holding my breath for it either, but today Gallup released new numbers showing the Democrats retaking their lead ahead of the 2010 midterms as Independents begin swinging away from the GOP.
Democrats have regained the slim edge they enjoyed earlier this year over Republicans in the latest update of Gallup's generic congressional ballot for the 2010 House elections, and now have a slight 48% to 45% lead among registered voters. After having been behind in July and October, Republicans had moved ahead by four points in a Nov. 5-8 poll conducted just after the off-year elections.
The major cause of the movement between November and the current poll is the changing preferences of independents. In the latest poll, conducted Dec. 11-13, independent registered voters tilt only slightly toward the Republican candidate, by 44% to 40%. In the November poll, independents' preference for the Republican candidate was 52% to 30%. Both parties maintain the allegiance of their bases, with 93% of Democratic registered voters preferring the Democratic candidate and an identical 93% of Republican voters preferring the Republican.
I have a request in for the regional breakdown of these numbers so we can get an even better sense of where movement is occurring around the country. But for now it appears that with Independent voters cutting their preference for the GOP by a net 18 points over just the last month -- a month rife with Republican obstructionism on key issues ranging from healthcare reform to Wall Street regulation -- the Democrats' hopes in 2010 are looking rosier.