Dems Continue to Lead on Generic Ballot Question

From the latest Ipsos poll (.pdf) commissioned by McClatchy newspapers:

I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the elections in 2010, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live? (IF "CANDIDATE FROM ANOTHER PARTY/WILL NOT/DO NOT PLAN TO VOTE/DK/REF", ASK: If you had to choose, would you lean more towards the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?)*

Initial Democratic Candidate: 43 percent
Lean Democratic Candidate: 5 percent
Lean Republican Candidate: 6 percent
Initial Republican Candidate: 36 percent

Total Democratic Candidate: 48 percent
Total Republican Candidate: 41 percent

These numbers don't look too different from the overall trend, per

If the Republicans are on the verge of a major comeback in next year's congressional elections, shouldn't they be improving rather than sinking relative to the Democrats in the generic congressional ballot questions?

Tags: Generic Congressional Ballot (all tags)



Suffice to say

"Reading too much into it" might be a significant understatement with regards to these elections.

The only thing that really delivered an unexpected result tied to national politics, in my estimation, was the NY-23 race, because the national super conservatives threw the kitchen sink at that one, and ended up losing what should've been a Republican giveaway.  

All politics is local.

by Dracomicron 2009-11-05 08:26AM | 0 recs
There has to be a typo

here.  46 (initial GOP candidate) plus 6 (Lean Republican Candidate) is 52, not 41.

by fladem 2009-11-05 08:31AM | 0 recs
Re: There has to be a typo

There is indeed a typo.  The number is 36, not 46.

by Steve M 2009-11-05 08:33AM | 0 recs
Re: There has to be a typo

Indeed. Thanks for the catch.

by Jonathan Singer 2009-11-05 08:48AM | 0 recs
Yep, it's a Typo (there's actually 2 mistakes)

Great work by Jonathan, but the number in the Ipsos report is 36, not 46 as he typed in the diary.

It is a rounding error too in the Report that makes 36+6=41. That is a mistake by the report.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-05 08:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead on Generic Ballot Questi

What this confirms is that Democrats should be running toward rather than away from being Democrats, and should be running away from rather than toward what the GOP offers the public. That's the lesson.

by bruh3 2009-11-05 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

A breakdown by region would be interesting.  

Good news though.

Hopefully we can get health care done before year end and then focus on some simple, easy to understand issues, that exploit the moderate / wingnut divide in the Republican party. ... Lets wedge the hell out of them.

by RichardFlatts 2009-11-05 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

This is precisely the wrong lesson from the info. How does one get from a poll that says the GOP is less likely that one should be more like them? I don't get DC think.

by bruh3 2009-11-05 08:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

Where did I say be more like them?


I am talking about exploiting political weakness ... you know politics ... how government gets done.  How elections are won.  

How do you think Pelosi, Grayson, Weiner, Shumer, Obama, Kuchinich got where they are and stay where they are?   Playing softball?  

by RichardFlatts 2009-11-05 09:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

"that exploit the moderate / wingnut divide in the Republican party"

How do you propose to do this exploitation? IMO, the above statement by you in the context of a base year election where your generic  numbers are higher than the other guy is the wrong formulation of what the Democrats should be doing. They should not be appealing to moderation. They should be appealing to the base, and engaging the passions of that base with the generic advantage. That advantage says to me that if you get your people out to vote for you, then you will win.  They need to be doing contrast, contrast, contrast. That's what the generics are telling me rather than appeals to what might affect the GOP.

A practical example - a second stimulus to fully bring more domestic jobs here would appeal to those voters who are facing economic hardship.

by bruh3 2009-11-05 09:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

Fact is Christie and McConnell both were allowed to run as moderates, pretty much down the middle.   The one time Deeds challenged McConnell on social issues he managed to gain a few seconds of traction and dent the polls for a short while, too bad he didn't have any ideas to follow up with.

So yes you need actual ideas.   But you also need a hard political edge.   By wedging the Republicans social issues you can put a lot of them in a hard place in a tight election, in a moderate or liberal district.  

McConnell had a big lead, he could ride out Deeds attack.   But in a tight election a Republican will have to worry about his or her base and won't be able to dismiss or explain away radical rightwing social positions, he or she will have to own them.

I would like every Democratic canidate to make sure that his opponent is forced to clearly state his position on the following:

1) Should abortion be illegial?   Not do you think it is wrong, but should it be illegial.  Should people be put in jail for abortion.

2) Does the Republican support federeal funding of stem cell research?

3) Does the GOP candidate believe in evolution?

4) Does the Republican believe that Obama is a socialist and does he believe that Obama was born in Hawaii.

Back to ideas for a minute.  I ideas in the next election will mean concrete proposals to solve problems.   I give Obama a TON of credit for '08 but voters are not going to buy hope, change, and post partisan bullshit in 2010.

by RichardFlatts 2009-11-06 04:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

The first line is so delusional regarding the Virginia race that I am not able to respond to you. Good luck.

by bruh3 2009-11-06 06:11AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

You are as bad as a wingnut.   You are out of touch with reality.

by RichardFlatts 2009-11-07 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

Chris Bowers discussing my point better than I am : s-not-about-what-congress-does-it-is-abo ut-what-congress-causes

Contrast here means governing in a way that creates emotional loyalty about things you are personally doing for the most voters. So they will have an emotional reason to show up for you.

by bruh3 2009-11-05 10:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

Sure, all well and good.  Lets break out the acoustic guitars and sing songs.   Lets run John Kerry style campaigns, where sure you are right, but nobody can hear you because your opponent is making too much noise repeatedly punching you in the face.

by RichardFlatts 2009-11-06 04:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

When you resort to snark, it means you have nothing really instructive to say. Honestly, I figured that out with the robotic go right, do moderate. You are saying nothing that every other Democratic insider says every election.

It is not about going right, and nor is "not going right and moderate' a belief in unicorns.   You have to say that because otherwise your "advice" is crap.

by bruh3 2009-11-06 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Dems Continue to Lead

It ain't beanbag.

by RichardFlatts 2009-11-07 08:13PM | 0 recs
health care questions

Interesting that support for a "public entity" to compete with private insurance is at 51%, while opposition to "health care plans currently being discussed" increased to 49%.

My interpretation:  a weak, watered-down plan that doesn't cut costs much (if at all) could be as bad as no plan.  

by esconded 2009-11-05 08:58AM | 0 recs
If we can get them to vote....

The most telling thing I've read about Tuesday's election is this statistic from Virginia: in 2008, Obama carried the state by 9 points. In 2009, the people who actually voted had voted for McCain by 9 points.

I suspect that's what the GOP pins its hopes on when it sees the generic poll: likely votes vs registered voters vs random people on the street. That came out in their favor this week.

The thing is, I'm not sure how to get the base out to vote. I want to see a good health care bill pass as much as anyone. But I can't imagine that there's a lot of people out there who will be wondering if they should vote next November 2nd and go vote as a thank you to the Democrats for fixing health care.

Policy-wise, we need to do the right things because they are the right things to do. Politically, I'm not sure what we need to do.

by fsm 2009-11-05 09:53AM | 0 recs
Re: If we can get them to vote....

Contrast what would happen if the GOP takes over with good policies already passed by Democrats that are already having positive influences in ways that matter like the jobs market.

by bruh3 2009-11-05 09:57AM | 0 recs


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