NY-23rd & NY Mayoral Results Thread

This is really the Rahm Emanuel vs Glenn Beck contest.

Results here locally at the Watertown daily.

With just over 3,000 votes tallied, Rahm is ahead of Glenn:

Bill Owens-- 50.8%
Doug Hoffman-- 45.5%
Dede Scozzafava-- 3.7%

Update [2009-11-3 21:55:37 by Jerome Armstrong]:
Now at 10,000 votes casted, and Rahm has pulled into a 10% lead over Glenn:

Bill Owens-- 53.2%
Doug Hoffman-- 43.2%
Dede Scozzafava-- 3.6%

If this holds up, there will be gnashing of Michelle Malkin teeth on the conservative blogs tonight.

Update [2009-11-3 22:0:18 by Jerome Armstrong]: Haha, it's turning into a route of centrist proportions in the Catskills tonight, with about 18,000 votes in:

Bill Owens-- 57.1%
Doug Hoffman-- 37.5%
Dede Scozzafava-- 5.4%

This is also the ACORN vs Movement Conservatives contest, we are told: “There are reports that they’re bringing in the troops and they’re bringing in ACORN,” said Hoffman." ACORN is kicking it and taking names, with 25K votes in:

Bill Owens-- 56.4%
Doug Hoffman-- 5.2%
Dede Scozzafava-- 38.4%

Update [2009-11-3 22:20:17 by Jerome Armstrong]: Oh yea, who could forget, it's round II of Biden vs Palin too in NY-23rd. Go Joe, 40K votes in:
Bill Owens-- 53.6%
Dede Scozzafava-- 4.8%
Doug Hoffman-- 41.6%

I just read that the NY Mayoral race is tight; woulda coulda shoulda for Dems if we barely lose to Bloomberg there.With 63% of the vote in, the Democrat Thompson is behind by 8,000 votes.

Update [2009-11-3 22:34:33 by Jerome Armstrong]:The latest, and it all depends on Owens to keep away a trifecta win tonight, with 205 of 606 Precincts Reporting - 34% of the vote and about 50k votes in:

Bill Owens-- 51%
Doug Hoffman-- 5%
Dede Scozzafava-- 44%

Update [2009-11-3 22:44:20 by Jerome Armstrong]:Still tightening, but Owens looks like he will pull it out, and that Scozzafava's tally maybe be the spoiler. 377 of 606 Precincts Reporting - 62% from 90K votes:

Bill Owens-- 49%
Doug Hoffman-- 5%
Dede Scozzafava-- 45%

Update [2009-11-3 22:49:30 by Jerome Armstrong]: Owens is comfortably ahead, but there were voting problems in NY-23rd today, and I read that multiple locations would be late in being counted, so this will likely extend into tomorrow, and not show up as an (assuming) Owens victory till then. As such, its not going to be in the lead story.

Tags: Hoffman, Owens (all tags)

Comments

39 Comments

Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

I wonder what the media narrative would be if Owens actually won this race.  I'm torn between "we've stopped caring because it doesn't fit the storyline" and "Hoffman's strong showing nevertheless portends trouble for 2010..."  Take your pick, I guess!

by Steve M 2009-11-03 04:53PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

It is a funny monkey wrench that might cause them a meltdown of thinking too much of how to do a simplistic meme.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 04:56PM | 0 recs
Thank you

This thread has me smiling broadly. I pray this lead holds up.

They've spent days trying to construct a broad referendum on Obama from three (3) races, and this messes everything up!

And I'd take Rahm and a swift kick to the nuts any day over Glenn Beck.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 05:05PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

"It demonstrates that the Blue Dogs are the  best way for Democrats to win districts like this."

And, no, it does not matter whether Owen is moderate or conservative or liberal or not. That will be the narrative :)

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:05PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

Well, it probably is the best way to win districts like that, which is why I agree with you that winning a district like that is not particularly helpful as long as the Democrats enjoy a solid majority anyway.  Still, maybe a Blue Dog can be their gateway drug.

by Steve M 2009-11-03 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

I think it is an irrelevant race personally because it changes none of the dominant narrative.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:10PM | 0 recs
Are you kidding?

It is a wholesale rejection by Republicans of the extreme right party hijackers.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Are you kidding?

Yeah I got a unicorn to sell you too.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:15PM | 0 recs
Explain

How an upset conservative party loss in NY-23 doesn't change the narrative, as you so claim. In 500 words or less.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Explain

Short answers are for slogans and American Idol voters.

But seriously, because it will change nothing the wingnuts will do (they are still going to run their crazy routine within the GOP- if you think crazy people are stopped by rational things like outcome of elections then you don't appreciate crazy) and it will change nothing regarding the Democratic strategy (it validates it). Rather than looking at a Deeds in VA to say "hey maybe we shouldn't run to the right, this then allows the Blue Dogs to say "yes we can to winning in conservative districts). It changes none of what we see in either party's internal dynamics. Or the overall media narrative.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Explain

Short answers are for slogans and American Idol voters.

But seriously, because it will change nothing the wingnuts will do (they are still going to run their crazy routine within the GOP- if you think crazy people are stopped by rational things like outcome of elections then you don't appreciate crazy) and it will change nothing regarding the Democratic strategy (it validates it). Rather than looking at a Deeds in VA to say "hey maybe we shouldn't run to the right, this then allows the Blue Dogs to say "yes we can to winning in conservative districts). It changes none of what we see in either party's internal dynamics. Or the overall media narrative.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Explain

I agree that the lesson from VA-Gov for Democrats should be "don't run milktoast moderates in statewide races", but I'm just not seeing NY-23 as fertile ground for a grassroots progressive.

If we win NY-23 tonight, it's precisely BECAUSE Owens is a milquetoast moderate, not in spite of it.  It's a moderately conservative leaning district in terms of how they vote for their Congresspeople.  Hoffman will lose partly because he's from the crazy far right, but also because he's a carpetbagging douche being funded by outsiders.  If we had put up a Democrat who is as liberal as Hoffman is conservative, I'm not sure we win this race.

Blue Dogs suck, but in some districts, it's the only shot you have of getting a Democrat elected.  Try to run a staunch liberal in places like NY-23, and the seat goes to the Republicans.

by Obamaphile 2009-11-03 06:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Are you kidding?

If nothing else, Democrats losing 2 to 1 is a hell of a lot less interesting to the press than a blowout by Republicans.  This may not be a big win, but it's about perception at this point.

by thatrangeofshadesbetweenredandbluestuff 2009-11-03 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Are you kidding?

I agree that it helps with short term narrative.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:20PM | 0 recs
Okay,

I agree with you then.

Yes, it helps with the short-term narrative, but I don't believe there are any long-term narratives that can be taken from tonight, other than: incumbents watch out.

The conservatives will not be deterred by this loss.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Okay,

I am about the long term.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:27PM | 0 recs
Both matter, though.

If No on 1 wins and the Conservative loses NY-23, it is a pretty clear rejection, to me.

Will this stop them? Lord no. They can't be stopped.

But short-term, it is a setback.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Both matter, though.

They are not the paradigm shift that needs to happen. Maine is a separate paradigm shift than the economic issues that the Blue Dogs will use these elections to validate their claims. Tomorrow or soon you will hear claims that "see the American people do not want the public option." Indeed, that was already voiced today or yesterday by some blue dogs. This is where it is of value. You must learn to parse how these narratives are used. The gay rights issue plays a factor in convincing people to vote against their economic interest, but it ultimately is not the fulcrum for Blue Dogs or conservatives on economic issues. They simply use simplistic constructions of voters to then say "see this mean everything I say on economics is agreed to." Well that or saying nothing and letting Democrats screw themselves.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:53PM | 0 recs
How are you going to get a paradigm shift...

...from 3,4 data points?

I do think a worthwhile short-term narrative can be constructed from the Maine No on 1, if it holds on to win, and NY-23, vis-a-vis rejection of the Glenn Beck conservatism.

However, the flip side to tonight is that yes, republicans and moderate democrats can point to the other two decisions (NJ and VA Governorships) as a rejection of Obama's apparent left agenda items, even though the VA Governor ripped off Obama's campaign message and campaigned as a moderate.

So yes, sadly, tonight is a victory for moderation, IMO.

While I will take a Blue Dog democrat any day over a Republican, we must remember that Progressives have carried the public option this far. In the face of this victory for moderation, we just have to redouble our efforts. We're not going to get much help on the matter.

I've long since realized we're going to have to do the heavy lifting ourselves.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 06:18PM | 0 recs
Re: How are you going to get a paradigm shift...

Tonight is a victory for status quo. That's not the same thing as moderation since moderation is the public option according to the American public, but which the Blue Dogs will now claim based on these races that the public does not want a public option. That's the switcheroo.  We won the election based on the two party system (so Americans have a limited way to show their discontent), and that proves that they supported us rather than that they have limited choices.

They voted out of anger over the economic situation but then they voted for people who then will rationalize that situation to continue with even worse policy now. That's how the perception/narrative dance works.

Conservadems  will say this was  referendum on the PO (the press will agree) although tonight was not a referendum on the public option.

It was a referendum on a shitty economy, the thing caused by neoliberalism. So yes, perceptionally, "moderation " as DC defines it in the form of centrism had a good night. But this tends to create a feed back loop that leads to further defeats. We have seen this play before. It was called the Clinton years.

Anyway- it is late. I need to run a business so that I can not be tied this this screwy country anymore.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 06:42PM | 0 recs
Re: How are you going to get a paradigm shift...

I skimmed the headlines at Yahoo, and then there was as if in manna from the Gods something that illustrates the winds and where they are blowing:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_health_car e_overhaul

Reid says will not decide before next year on healthcare. I will leave it to you to figure out what this means. Hint- this did not go well for Clinton. Irony- in trying not to be Clinton, Obama became Clinton. There is something zen about that.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 06:47PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

Of all the races tonight, including my own governor's race, I think I would rather win the Maine vote most of all.

Hey, by the way, if Bill Thompson somehow loses a nailbiter that's a result people can actually blame Obama for!

by Steve M 2009-11-03 05:23PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

That's about the only race tonight that matters. It changes a narrative.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:24PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

bloomberg and thompson race is very interesting . 49/48 , who would have thougth...

by lori 2009-11-03 05:05PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

No shit, Bloomberg might lose tonight.  Very anti-incumbent-party mood.

by Vox Populi 2009-11-03 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

That would be interesting indeed. I thought Bloomie was going to win.

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

If the Republicans lose this race it will be hysterical. It could also embolden some more moderate Republicans to stand up to Beck, Limbaugh... in my opinion, it will 100% undercut any notion that tonight was successful for Republicans if they win NJ as well as Virginia if they lose.

I soooooooo hope Owens wins.

by Graham1979 2009-11-03 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

MSNBC had to uncall Bloomberg/Thompson

by MNPundit 2009-11-03 05:07PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

Damn this is a close one.  Owens is up 2,500 votes with 20% in.  This one is going to be a nailbiter.

by thatrangeofshadesbetweenredandbluestuff 2009-11-03 05:10PM | 0 recs
Hoffman

I get the feeling that if Hoffman does lose then a) they will blame Acorn and b) feel like the whole night was a loss even if they win in NJ.

by Charles Lemos 2009-11-03 05:13PM | 0 recs
Jon Corzine lost NJ..AP calling...

by louisprandtl 2009-11-03 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Jon Corzine lost NJ..AP calling...

Dump Geithner. Replace him with Corzine.

by Charles Lemos 2009-11-03 05:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Jon Corzine lost NJ..AP calling...

Nice call.

by Jerome Armstrong 2009-11-03 05:22PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd Results Thread

wow- tonight is becoming the night of the anti-incumbent. A pox on both your houses?

by bruh3 2009-11-03 05:16PM | 0 recs
This I agree with.

Yes, it is frighteningly clear that there appears to be an anti-incumbent mood.

by NoFortunateSon 2009-11-03 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd & NY Mayoral Results Thread

From Dave Weigel:

The mood is getting darker at NY-23 Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman's election party. Results from Jefferson County-Republican territory that John McCain carried-show Owens in the lead. And the Syracuse suburbs-Madison, Oswego, and Oneida County-are not showing the blowouts that early polling suggested. The first results from Oswego show Hoffman at 2800, Owens at 2000, and Scozzafava at 324. The final Siena poll had Hoffman leading Democrat BIll Owens 51-28 in this region.

I am sadden by Corzine, heartbroken, really.

by Charles Lemos 2009-11-03 05:36PM | 0 recs
We gotta hold on in NY-23

We have to win this one.  Im holding onto this with every bit of hope that i have.  

by Kent 2009-11-03 05:38PM | 0 recs
Um...

It's not a holdon...

It's a win.

by Khun David 2009-11-03 07:10PM | 0 recs
Re: NY-23rd & NY Mayoral Results Thread

NY-23 and the Mayoral race is surprisingly close. I hope we could pull it off in NY-23.

by RJEvans 2009-11-03 05:46PM | 0 recs

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