2012 & Iowa for Republicans
by Jerome Armstrong, Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 12:00:26 PM EST
Would it be surprising, if this trend continues, to see a poll that shows Palin leading Obama in 2012 (Would that jolt Obama even further to the right)? Its not as far off as you'd imagine.
Via Rasmussen, some 2012 numbers:
44% Romney, 44% Obama
45% Obama, 41% Huckabee
46% Obama 43% Palin
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 48 / 51
Mitt Romney: 49 / 38
Mike Huckabee: 58 / 30
Sarah Palin: 46 / 49
Its kinda goofy that Huckabee would have that high a favorable and trail Obama by slightly more than the other two. Opinion Dynamics has the Palin favorable numbers higher than the others:
Sarah Palin 47%
Mike Huckabee 45%
Newt Gingrich 38%
Mitt Romney 38%
The Gingrich numbers, if he does get in, will likely be worse than any of the others running. Which brings us to the Iowa caucus-goers poll of favorables/unfavorables.
First, I have to wonder if, given that Obama will not be challenged, a lot (many or some?) of those 2008 caucus-goers that attended the Democratic caucus, 230K or so, might caucus with Republicans in 2012? It certainly wouldn't be surprising to see the Republican '80's turnout records shattered in '12.
There are three groups in the Iowa poll that cluster in the favorable ratings of "not sure" for the answer (among all Iowans):
Palin is in a world of her own, but I continue to believe she will flirt with running, but not actually run in the end.
It looks to me like Huckabee is going to be strongly favored to win Iowa. His overall favorable rating is 54% positive, while Gingrich (42%) and Romney (40%) trail. Among only Republicans/Moderates (those who would attend a GOP caucus) the favorables:
Unless I'm totally wrong and Palin does run (they would split the social conservative base in half), the polling shows Huckabee with nearly a lock on the Iowa caucus. I thought ( a few months ago) that Gingrich might have an opening in Iowa, but not with these kind of numbers. What seems more likely at this point is that a longshot might come up (maybe not even on the radar yet being still 25 months away, and be the story with a close 2nd/3rd to Huckabee. My guess is Gary Johnson. I could see a lot of Ron Paul Libertarian Republicans backing him, and a lot of Libertarian Democrats showing up to caucus for him, that boost his numbers (if his campaign does the targeting/organizing).On Iowa, I just finished David Plouffe's book, and its probably (their voter-targeting in Iowa) my favorite part of the book. I've got a couple of in-depth drafts up for posts on it that I'll do in the next few days.