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Re: Open Thread

Any worries about losing Congress?
From the latest USA Today Gallup poll:

"The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general."

by esconded 2008-09-07 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

no

by lori 2008-09-07 06:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Absolutely not! If their congressional candidates are helped, it means we pick up fewer seats than expected. We will not suffer so much as a net loss.

by Nathan Empsall 2008-09-07 07:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Is it true that MSNBC have demoted Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews?

Reason?

by newmexicodem 2008-09-07 06:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Are you seriously asking why Chris Matthews would be demoted? Keith Olbermann I get, he was pretty good, even if he didn't quite have the gravitas one might want. But Matthews? Sheeeeit, Zell Miller shoulda followed through on that slap.

by vcalzone 2008-09-07 06:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

As long as Rachel Maddow is still on board, I'm fine. Nothing really wrong with David Gregory.

by vcalzone 2008-09-07 06:27PM | 0 recs
David Gregory?

Rove's backup dancer?  The guy who never misses a chance to ask, "Is this bad for Obama, or worse for Obama"?  

by Tangie3 2008-09-07 07:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Gregory has to be one of the biggest douchebags on tv (and that's some serious competition). He's the king of the concern troll frat house.

by recusancy 2008-09-07 07:13PM | 0 recs
I still give the credit to Palin

rather than McCain for this bounce, which will go down in history as the second biggest bounce in recent election history.  Obama was artificially close to McCain in his support among men and McCain's lead among men grew back to where it probably will remain after McCain's speech.

What happened, at least according to Scott Rasmussen's numbers, is that Obama's double-digit advantage among women dropped to almost John Kerry's advantage after Palin's speech.  It's a crying shame too, Obama was tying this tool among white women, who are the ones I suspect moving to McCain.  All the focus groups in the world may say something different about Palin's support among women but the polls seem to be telling a far different story.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-07 06:32PM | 0 recs
Re: I still give the credit to Palin

Yeah, I agree, even if I still don't get it or think it will last. They really do need to send somebody to hammer away at her record. God, I thought they were sending out Sebelius, Wasserman and Napolitano this weekend, not next year.

by vcalzone 2008-09-07 06:39PM | 0 recs
Let's see what HRC

says tomorrow and on Tuesday; so some "unnamed Clinton advisers" who are too chicken to put their names on record say she won't hit Palin.  I am hoping she does what Biden should be doing with Palin but if Obama isn't asking her to do so, I think that's a mistake on his part.  She won't do it unless he asks.

If the media narrative of next week is HRC hitting Palin hard, above the belt of course, then I think that's good for Obama.  Sebelius doesn't seem to like Palin at all but she couldn't get in the news if her life depended on it.  Only two people can get into the news for hitting Palin and that's Obama and Clinton (even freaking Biden cannot get the media to cover him).

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-07 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Let's see what HRC

Hillary is the happiest girl in the Democratic Party - She was right, Obama can't win.

Hillary vs Sarah 2012 - wouldn't Susan B. be proud!

by oliver777 2008-09-07 06:46PM | 0 recs
Keep on trolling oliver

Look, I'll say that she was a better matchup against McCain and leave it at that.  Obama would have been a better matchup against Huckabee.

That's a pretty tough matchup for HRC though in your hypothetical 2012 scenario, unless the country is in an absolute shitter.  It is in one right now but people do not seem to be buying McCain-Palin equals Bush-Cheney thus far even though over 60% of the public according to this disastrous USA today/gallup poll believe they'll push Bush-Cheney policies.

Obama is going to need his Reagan moment at a debate if we are to get back into the lead we had prior to the conventions in my opinion.  Or we'll need a Jeremiah Wright for Palin to emerge as I suppose her church and associations aren't controversial enough for the public right now.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-07 06:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Let's see what HRC

"She was right, Obama can't win."

Self-fulfilling prophecy?

by ProgressiveDL 2008-09-07 07:29PM | 0 recs
We're losing...

That's the story of this weekend. We're losing.

That doesn't mean we're going to lose and it doesn't mean we should panic, but it should absolutely be a kick in the ass for us, the progressives of this country, and the Obama campaign in particular.

He better go on offense, and not just empty offense. The biggest mistake of his convention speech was failing to make at least one truly bold proposal, something we hadn't heard before and that would redefine at least one element of the race. I don't know what that would be, just something, anything that the Republicans would have to react to.

So I want to see a big proposal from him, something that gets the McCain camp scoffing and talking issues instead of character for a week. We need to lure them into an issues debate or we're looking at a McCain rout and 12 years of McCain-Palin.

by Siguy 2008-09-07 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: We're losing...

Not panic?  Are you kidding me?  Yes, it is time to panic - Joe and Barrack are, why shouldn't you?

by oliver777 2008-09-07 06:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I am 100% confident Barack Obama and Joe Biden will win this election by 3-4 points. This convention bounce, notwithstanding.

As consolation, look at the difference between the head-to-head for LVs and RVs. The amazing organizing apparatus the Obama campaign has been building for months will have a tremendous impact on the final results.

by blueflorida 2008-09-07 06:42PM | 0 recs
Alaska Senate Seat Remains Republican

McCain-Palin saves at least one Senate seat - Alaska. Teddie gets carried over on Sarah's skirt.

Also, Colorado and New Hampshire are now back to being toss-ups and Louisiana might be a pickup for Republicans due to the "Palin Effect".

Dem's easily take New Mexico and Virgina

Obama should have listened to Shumer by picking Hillary. Heck, Lieberman is going to go Republican. It's possible for the Dem's to win two and lose two (LA and CT).  What a turnaround - all due to a moosehunting mother of five no one heard of 10 days ago.  Only in America!

by oliver777 2008-09-07 06:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Alaska Senate Seat Remains Republican

Could you try to be a little more pessimistic please?

No really, I think it would help.

Anyone who thinks that 2 days in the first week of September somehow decide this election is insane.

by JDF 2008-09-07 08:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Would be interesting for somebody to ask Palin if she endorses Stevens' reelection bid.

by neko608 2008-09-07 06:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Or if she would veto a bill with an earmark from Alaska in it.

by vcalzone 2008-09-07 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Bingo!! That's the counter-attack. Expect it in a few days...

by blueflorida 2008-09-07 07:03PM | 0 recs
Senate outlook
Right!  And Boehner is the new Speaker of the House.  While I don't think that's going to happen
(yet), it could.
by esconded 2008-09-07 06:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I hate to cite Drudge but the NY Times is going to have a front page story on Palin's fifth baby tomorrow.

Is the shit about to hit the fan? Why would they write a front page story about her baby unless something was up ala Vicky Iseman something.

by sweet potato pie 2008-09-07 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Just to have one I suppose. I really don't think it's going to be anything big. In fact, is this the article?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/08/us/pol itics/08baby.html?_r=1&hp&oref=s login

by werd2406 2008-09-07 07:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Good christ, it's a BOUNCE. Is really everyone not used to this happening every election cycle?? The Republicans just had a week full of press coverage where no one could debate/respond to what they say. That's about to change now that the conventions are over and its now back to policy vs. policy.  Give it a few days to a week. Let everyone get back to the issues and the candidates and comparing/debating. This convention was nothing but a week of Republicans talking about themselves and they were able to change the truth as much as possible and no one was able to respond to them. That's about to change.

by werd2406 2008-09-07 07:15PM | 0 recs
Sheesh.

First off, McCain threw a curveball no one saw coming, even GOP insiders.  Give the Obama campaign time to adjust before jumping out of any windows.  They were ready for Romney or someone else REASONABLE -- who could possibly predict McCain would start shaking out the trailer parks in Alaska looking for a running mate?

In the immediate -- she's new, she's untested, no one knows much about her except she's different and there's no toilet paper on her shoe just yet.  She's everyone's newly unwrapped gizmo, give them some time to get tired of her.  (god knows I am already)  And give the herd of reporters in Alaska time to do their jobs.  Once the American people come down off their Palin high her extremist positions are going to start to sink in -- she hates polar bears and has lied every time she's opened her mouth fer cripes sake.  Give this some time.

There's a good reason they are limiting her explosure right now...duh...they know themselves she'll wither under it.  But she can't hide forever and she doesn't have the real battle experience.  Sure, she looked great (not to me, but whatever) reading a script, let's just see how she does fielding serious hardball questions.

And let the American people grow accustomed to the idea of a professional hockey mom as CiC.  Again, it's all novelty right now --give it a bit to sink in to another level.  Remember, we progressives tend to be out ahead of the curve.

Also, McCain has to be getting a huge "pity the poor POW" bounce right now.  That too will wear off once the campaign gets serious.  Every indication is Obama is going to take him apart in the debates.  

And the country is suffering right now from Obama fatigue.  I actually think the entire Palin hoopla came at exactly the right time to blow itself out on schedule.  By the last week of October folks are going to be sick and tired of Mooseskinner Barbie and her schtick and the once strange Obama is going to seem like the elder statesman in comparison.

Remember, for many of those folks swinging around right now it's all about identifying with the candidate.  Sarah Palin might be fun for the first twenty minutes of a party to loosen things up a bit, but towards the end of the evening she's the woman in the room everyone wishes would just shut the fuck up.  

right now the non-partisans don't know what to make of her -- it seems like a nifty idea and this whole "small town mom made good" thing is intriguing to them.  but if she keeps riding that pony for too long -- or anything dire happens anywhere -- it's going to occur to folks that the presidency is not a Miss Congeniality contest.

Lastly -- the polls this cycle are fer shit.  they aren't fairly accounting for the youth turn-out and they can't factor in the GOTV effort.  IF you ask me Palin did more to unite and energize the Democratic base than she did the GOP.  Some of them are still scratching their heads and trying to figure out if and how far they should distance themselves from this freakshow.  The Democratic base has spent the weekend clearing their calendars in horror.  John McCain was one thing; this Palin piece of work is quite another.

At the end of the day it's going to come down to who gets their people to the polls.  

by GRO 2008-09-07 07:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Sheesh.

Good points, though on one I do hope you're especially right on. The debates one, I hope Obama is able to tear him apart and if we had to go by on speaking alone, he would...but, this is something i noticed when he was debating Clinton as well, Obama gets agitated very easily it seems and it comes across poorly on tv. I hope he's been able to correct this and will be ready for McCain. Again, on paper it looks like he should tear him apart but hopefully he's worked on some of his style and is actually a better debater than he was against Clinton....lord knows he had the best practice.

Also, many people don't know how extreme Sarah Palin is. Many have just seen the press coverage lately/the convention and go "Aww...she eats mooses! She's a hockey mom! She wears cute glasses!, omg she's like SUCH a nice woman".....yeah wait till they find out she doesn't believe in abortion even in cases of incest and rape and likes to ban books she finds "too controversial"......again, if I was Obama's campaign, I'd focus on this and not rely on the media to you know, actually do its job...something it's been fearful to do when a Republican calls them a name. Also, troopergate isn't even in full swing yet though I think the positions are the main thing the campaign should focus on.

Again people, this is a BOUNCE. This was EXPECTED. Now the conventions are over, it's right back to policy vs. policy/the candidates.

by werd2406 2008-09-07 07:46PM | 0 recs
Enquiring minds want to know

I'm taking solace in the notion that her current super stardom sets her up nicely to sell many many pieces of print -- oversized print with lots of pictures.  And I just have to believe the Enquirer is turning over rocks in Alaska looking for dirt on Sarah Palin. That and just imagine what trash on Palin or the husband is worth to the National Enquirer right about now.  Think anyone is Alaska is hard up for money?

Who believes the National Enquirer?  Well, to start, half the hockey moms and low information voters in America -- and the other half gets a viral email from the first half and believes it.

I'm praying they find out Sarah once claimed she was abducted by aliens or a some old photo of her kicking a kitten surfaces.  ummmm......toasty photos through the steamy windows of a F-350 with someone other than Mr. Palin?  fingers and toes crossed.

Remember, this person wasn't PLANNING to become a national figure anytime soon.  She was PLANNING to run her little queendom in Alaska where scandal never seems to prevent repeated reelections.  And her "bridge to nowhere" position of late is costing her more than a few old supporters.  

by GRO 2008-09-07 08:06PM | 0 recs
Hey, Todd...

Y'all have a lot of concern trolls on your site today. It's kinda fucked up how many there are.

by sricki 2008-09-07 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Hey, Todd...

they're all fired up coming out of the convention.  Besides, now they have a new poster to hang over their bunk bed next to their Anne Coulter.

mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm. I did good for you, didn't I Sarah?

by GRO 2008-09-07 07:45PM | 0 recs
what is Gallup's likely voter screen?

If it depends on a voter having voted in the last presidential election, they could be underestimating the huge number of newly registered voters this year.

If I recall, Gallup has always been the most favorable poll for McCain. Let's wait to see some other national and (more importantly) state polls before we assume Obama has blown it.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-07 07:45PM | 0 recs
"Blown it"?

You have got to be fucking kidding me.  

by GRO 2008-09-07 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: what is Gallup's likely voter screen?

They describe their LV screen here, which seems reasonable to me. They do not appear to depend on 2004 vote history.

by souvarine 2008-09-07 07:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I agree, but could you tone down the NC-17 languarge?

by spirowasright 2008-09-07 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

...add in the fact that Palin was such a surprise.  Introduced right after the Dem. Convention, a radical change in how the Repubs. do business, and then Palin pulls off a really good speach.  People had such LOW expectations for the GOP convention that the Palin introduction was like a bomb going off.  Average voters were NOT expecting it and they got taken in.  The only question is wether or not they will like what they see...I say they sour on it all when more info comes out, which it will.  Now that Palin has achieved celebrity status, people will be looking into who she is, what has she done, what will she do.  She has indeed eclipsed McCain and with style and form.  But will her exploits as Mayor and Governor sit well with the general voting public?

Pit-bulls, lipstick or not, tend to be looked at as dangerous things, not freindly.  And they are alsoknown to bit their "masters", (as are hockey moms...ask me how I know from living in northern MN).

As I stated before, the Republicans are riding a very, very dangerous tiger here.  If they pull this off, they deserve the win.  But then again, they will never, NEVER be the same republican party again, and personally I would like to see a good and decent opponent rise out of the horrifying ashes that the Repubs have become.  

I do NOT like McCain's style, and Palin makes me want to puke, but honestly, I just cannot see that even they, with a Democratic Congress (escpecially ones with close to super-majorities) could drag us lower if elected.  That is not a challenge and it would TOTALLY suck if Obama lost.  

But the word I am hearing from independants here is they would prefer a Repub. president vs. a strong Democratic congress rather than a administration that can run the tables on legislation.  In retrospect, and against my desires, it may be that the country is just not ready to take the next step forward without some crushing event to make us.  9/11 could have been that moment, but George wasted it.  I will never be able to respect a man who puts corporations before country, even in our time of need. The Republicans DO NOT deserve a second, third, whatever chance to lead this country, but the people they represent DO deserve to be respected in their desire or fear not to move forward to fast.  I cannot hate them for that even if I am frustrated to see so many good people seemingly flock to the banner of reactionism and fear, and racism (yes, that is out there too...)

But...

...this is also Obama's time to shine.  He is being given a platform, much like Palin was at the GOP convention, to take a step higher and really LEAD us forward.  If he can step up and really BE the leader we all think he can be, he really can overcome this.  There is a storm of "change" growing, waiting for the right "master" to harness it and use it to move us back to where we belong, to take us up the path we have always worked hard to take.  I think that leader COULD be Barak Obama, but we shall see if he can rise up to the occasion.  

I believe he can.

by Hammer1001 2008-09-07 07:48PM | 0 recs
USA Today/Gallup

USA Today/Gallup poll has McCain/Palin at 54% opinion.

Wow.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-09-07 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: USA Today/Gallup

It's a Republican bounce poll though. Those numbers won't hold.

More then likely well be at 48/48 in a week or two.

by kristoph 2008-09-07 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: USA Today/Gallup

We keep saying it will get better, and yet it doesn't seem to get better, does it?

by LordMike 2008-09-07 10:54PM | 0 recs
When will Obama release...

his August fundraising numbers? I have a feeling they will be another record breaker and could potentially stomp on McCain's convention bounce...

by Kula2316 2008-09-08 12:14AM | 0 recs

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