by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Sep 06, 2008 at 02:57:17 AM EDT
There's nothing that tells you more about which states are being targeted as 'high priority' than where the Presidential candidate is going. I'm going to continue to focus solely upon the Presidential candidates, and not the VP's in their visits (on that VP note, news out that Palin plans on doing 30 fundraisers over the next 60 days, and McCain only doing 4). That's probably then not going to give the full picture, but it'll do the job. Also, because the WaPosts candidate tracker is only doing the Pres. candidates.
Here's the third installment (previous) of looking at where the candidate have spent their days in the last months (where they do public events):
Here was 6/5-7/5
2 visits: MO, OH, MI, NH
1 visit: CO, ND, MT, MN, NV, NM, FL, WI, VA, PA
3 visits: FL, PA
2 visits: LA, VA, OH
1 visit: NH, CT, NJ, MO, MN, NV
Here was 7/5-8/5
3 visits: MO
2 visits: OH, VA, NY, GA
1 visit: MI, FL, IA, NC, CA, IN
3 visits: OH, CO, WI
2 visits: PA, NH, MO, CA, ME
1 visit: SD, FL, VA, MI, NV, NM, LA, NY
Here is 8/5-9/5
2 visits: CO, PA, VA
1 visit: HI, MN, IN, WI, OH, MN, MT, MO, IA, IL, FL, NC, NM, NV, CA
4 visits: OH, PA
2 visits: MI, CA, MN
1 visit: IA, CO, FL, LA, NM, MO, AZ, WI
The main reason for the disparity between Obama and McCain, is that Obama went 9 days, from visiting MN on 7/7 to NV on 7/17, without visiting a battleground state. Meanwhile, McCain camped out in OH and PA. Similarly, during the previous month, Obama had 10 days less, due to his global trip and a short vacation. But Obama also has campaigned harder when he's on the trail, while McCain consistently takes time off during the week, so it pretty much evens out.
Over the past month, Obama had 13 visits in '04 red states and 7 visits to blue states. That 13:7 ratio is off the aggressive one done last month, at 13:4, but better than the 11:7 ratio in the month prior.
Obama remains consistent in being able to be more aggressive in campaign visits. In fact, he had public visits to 18 states, vs the 13 for McCain, even though he had one less visit over all in the past month, 21, vs 22 for McCain.
McCain had 9 visits to '04 blue states and 13 to red states. A 9:13 ratio that is his least aggressive of the past three months (13:14 and 7:11 for the prior two months).
McCain remains on the defense. What jumps out is that he didn't visit New Hampshire at all during the last month. He's very much narrowed his focus of blue states to the midwest, and specifically to Pennsylvania and Michigan. McCain still doesn't act as if he's overly concerned about VA or FL flipping to Obama, though he has started buying TV ads in the latter state this week.
It seems to really be coming down to Michigan in the midwest. If McCain can't win there, he has to run the table of the other 6 battleground states (CO, NV, OH, IN, VA, FL), assuming that IA & NM are safely for Obama, and NH is off the table. And there's been a lot happening in MI this week, for another post.