by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Sep 05, 2008 at 01:16:48 PM EDT
Steve Lombardo over on Pollster has a real good birds eye view of whats happened in the past month of so of the campaign.
There are now three tracking polls.
Hotline has it at 46-40, Obama over McCain. That's a combined movement of 3 percent, from 48-39, in their poll prior to the tracking poll's beginning.
Gallup has it at 48-44 today, Obama ahead, a combined movement of 3 percent since yesterdays. Rasmussen has it at 48-46, Obama ahead, also a combined movement of 3 percent since yesterdays.
We'll have to wait till Monday's results to have the full post-convention picture. Obama met the bounce he needed imo, going from 45% to 49% in the poll of polls on RCP, a solid 4% bounce that put him higher than he's ever been.
Nevertheless, the poll of polls has closed quickly thus far, with 3% being shaved off Obama's lead in the past two days, now with a lead of 2.6 percent.
For John McCain to meet Obama's bounce, he'd need to exceed 47 percent, which would mean a similar 4% bounce from where he started at 43 percent. Right now, he's at 44% for a 1% bounce thus far.
He can't complain that they didn't see him speak. The news out today is that 500K more people watched McCain speak than did Obama.