I'm really sorry that I just didn't stay home to blog the DNCC. I had a laptop w/o a ethernet connection and wound up just soaking up all the speeches with good seats in the Denver hall, with no ability to blog... then the walk time from the hall to the wireless... it just made for wanting to watch the convention in the hall, party till 2 am, and then sleep some in-between (the Ramada had a nice outside pool too).

For the GOP, I watched the TV speeches tonight in full, and have just one word.


We have met someone that we will be doing battle against for a decade or more. Seriously. I've never seen a woman, or a man for that matter, speak that way, prime time, national, convention, live, ever. She blows away Hillary Clinton. Sorry, but that's what it is. Palin's deft speaking style is like watching visceral connective tissue being torn-- with a child in arms [understand that the Clinton comparison is within the context of contra Obama].

OK, so my guess. Come November, and Obama's glorious victory, Palin is who they pronounce as the '12 nominee against Obama. Either that, or Palin is Prez after McCain croaks on a pretzel from 2 years of the WH.

Palin captured the GOP's heart and flag tonight. She hit it 456 ft into deep right field, and way friggin outside the park.

Romney? Huckabee? Giuliani? Amateurs all. Nada comparison (I can't believe I even put Whitman in Palin's league). Anyone that thinks McCain could have chosen better than Palin, among the GOP ranks, is on drugs.  Talk about a cultural war that's on again!

Also, "Drill baby Drill!" wtf is that?

Update [2008-9-4 1:31:30 by Jerome Armstrong]:Joe Klein as an off-the-kuff blogger is sooo lacking, but on reflection, gets it better:

The more I think about it, Palin's was an authentic, sarcastic, white working-class voice--absent the economic pain at large in the country, the fact that median families have lost $2000 in disposable income during the Bush presidency. The Democrats are betting that the pain will trump the sarcasm this year; the media reaction you're seeing, including my own, comes from the knowledge that sarcasm has trumped pain so often in recent history.
Of course, anyone who has the ability to claim basis with "the media reaction" is part of the problem with its success too. This was sooo predictable.

Tags: RNCC, Styrofoam Greek Columns (all tags)



Drill Baby Drill

Maybe that's what Rudy's mistress use to say. There's no doubt that she just leapfrogged over Romney in the line of succession for nominees, but I don't think she attracted any Democrats or Hillary supporters.

by RandyMI 2008-09-03 09:20PM | 0 recs
we can worry about that later

after Obama has appointed two or three Supreme Court judges.

The next president will inherit a huge mess, and it will be a challenge for anyone to be successful.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-03 09:36PM | 0 recs
Re: She doesn't have to

Reagan was successful because he was truly and deeply tapped into the zeitgeist of his times, much to our regret.

Palin, by all appearances, seems to be deeply tapped into the zeitgeist... of Ronald Reagan's time.  Liberals have this ingrained reaction like "oh no, this is a winning message for their side" but the country simply isn't in the same place it was two decades ago.

Palin has a lot of political talent but fundamentally she is fighting yesterday's battles.  Reagan was not.

by Steve M 2008-09-03 10:12PM | 0 recs
Re: She doesn't have to

Hit the nail on the head.

by fogiv 2008-09-03 10:23PM | 0 recs
What is going on here?

Have I stumbled on to the site of The Onion?

I didn't understand all the borderline hate the blogosphere had for this unkown persona when her selection had been announced, and I don't understand the consternation now.

What were you expecting, stagefright?

She's an average speaker with limited appeal, even among the conservative base. She has little experience, and another four years as the Governor of Alaska is not going to give her that. And that doesn't even begin to address her potential legal troubles.

For my money, 2012 will be a battle royale between the monied (Romney), and the cultural conservatives (Huckabee). I don't know what Huck's future is, but I've got the feeling he's yet to play out his role. I suppose Crist is the only question mark.  

Anyway, you guys need to stay away from the caffeine for awhile...

by Zach in Phoenix 2008-09-03 10:43PM | 0 recs
Re: What is going on here?

I do not mind JA's contrarian take- but often it is oversimplified- if been an effective newsreader is all it takes, Brian Williams would be president.

by RAULC 2008-09-03 11:14PM | 0 recs
Really! She was a sportscaster...

and has been giving political speeches for a while so why the surprise she can read from a teleprompter. I think the sarcasm was way overdone and will be offputting to undecideds who want to hear substance not high school snark. She can fire up the base but those rabid culture warriors are always fired up-doubt the rest of the country really feels like going there.

by berkshiretrueblue 2008-09-04 05:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

This speech clearly played well in the hall but I would be surprised if that level of nastiness was appealing to independent voters watching at home. I think it was clearly a well constructed and well delivered speech but I feel like they are trying to open up cultural issues that they will lose on. And I think that there is much more scrutiny to come on her record in Alaska that will further damage her qualifications for this office. I predict we hear nothing significant from her once they lose the election in November.

by wasder 2008-09-03 09:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Seriously. Her speech was not that great when you weren't surrounded by cheering fans. Republicans... LOVED IT. I predict nobody else did. Palin is far too conservative to plausibly serve on the national stage. She's a relatively talented politician, but she has about 200 books to read before she can make it on the main stage without a crutch.

by vcalzone 2008-09-03 09:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

it's her ideas, not her personality.  She hasn't won Hillary's voters, if any of Hillary's voters vote pug, it will be to give a message to Howard Dean and the DNC, because between now and the election they won't show they've learned. Barack can win them, by embracing Hillary, not by attacking Sarah's character or her tone or whatever, and Hillary would be glad to help him and her supporters would be glad if she were really admired by him and by the DNC.  We're Democrats, we want out of Iraq, we want universal health care, we want a strong advocate for reproductive rights, we want government to work, so we want competence first.  Sarah is an interesting person and she reads a speech very well, she's a bundle of energy and she's a hard worker, but her ideas suck.  Barack has enough time to make competence his centerpiece, to announce who will be with him in his administration, and to embrace the Democratic ideals.  It's now clear that mandates work, so he needs to say that and embrace mandates.  And he needs to consult with all the smart people, Hillary and Bill first of all. They  know how to win, and they want him to win.  

by anna shane 2008-09-03 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I predict we hear nothing significant from her once they lose the election in November.

Remember that prediction.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 09:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I will. And you remember yours. We can compare notes in a few years, though we will probably know after the GE if she was judged a successful national politician. I certainly don't pretend to have any better info than you do but I don't see how that one speech has you thinking she is the future of the Republican Party. There are so many open contradictions in her record and positions that she should be easy to take down.

We should have a sneak preview into who is right on this when we see how this speech filters out into CW. I just think its not going to play well in the homes of middle class independents.

by wasder 2008-09-03 09:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Actually, I make them so often, that I try to forget.

I just read the rightwing blogs to know where they are, and it seems pretty obvious on this call.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 09:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Oh I have no doubt they love her. But they are not a majority party any more.

by wasder 2008-09-03 09:56PM | 0 recs
I just had a little old lady from down the block

come over and ask if we were having the Obama meeting at my house tomorrow night as she wanted to come.  I said yes and she said she wanted to help work to get Obama elected because she doesn't like the woman McCain picked as VP.

So I guess it's all in your point of view, eh?

by GFORD 2008-09-03 10:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Remember when we all thought that Santorum, Frist, and George Allen were the new standard-bearers of conservatism?

by indythink 2008-09-03 10:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

"we"? No.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 11:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight


by reebus 2008-09-04 02:24AM | 0 recs
But will it carry?

In 2004, Barack's speech was widely believed to have both carried well beyond the Fleet Center and resonated with America.

When I heard Barack speak, I predicted he would be the next President of the United States (knocks on wood)

It has been evident since the announcement that the wingnuts love this woman. That's necessary, but ultimately insufficient to win this election.

When I see her, I hope she's the next Republican candidate, because I don't feel peoples' minds being changed or resonance in Independents.

The coming days will see if we are right.

by iohs2008 2008-09-04 06:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I don't agree with the prediction, but I also don't think she'll stay long in elected politics.

That woman's headed for acerbic talk radio/punditry.

In this election, she's a perfect match for McCain: they both come off as angry, vicious and mean.

by jonweasel 2008-09-03 09:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

She works, but her policies do not.  Unless she morphs away from the RepubliJesus routine by 2012 America will be over that kind of politics.

by proseandpromise 2008-09-03 09:24PM | 0 recs
I halfway agree with you

I thought the first half of her speech was balls out excellent in terms of delivery but then she got nasty...and then she got wooden.

She is no Hillary and she is certainly no Obama.

I have no problem putting her up against Obama in 4 years.

by JDF 2008-09-03 09:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Wow, that's quite the hyperbole.  You do know that at least parts of the speech were prepared well in advance of her candidacy, and for a male candidate, right?

Not anticipating that McCain would choose a woman as his running mate, the speech that was prepared in advance was "very masculine," according to campaign manager Rick Davis, and "we had to start from scratch." tent/article/2008/09/03/AR2008090301176. html?hpid=topnews

by rfahey22 2008-09-03 09:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Interestingly, "man" was one of the most used words in her speech tonight.  Not sure if that means anything at all, but it made me look twice.

by thatpurplestuff 2008-09-03 09:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

That's a really cool image. How did that get created? Is that from Many-Eyes?

by afertig 2008-09-03 10:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight ... I'm a pretty big word nerd and love running big speeches through it.  Most of the time the most common words are also ones that I would not have anticipated.

by thatpurplestuff 2008-09-03 10:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I nominate you to produce a wordle diary(ies), showing and discussing the speeches of Obama, Biden, the Clintons, Palin, McCain, et al. Pretty please?

by itsthemedia 2008-09-03 11:47PM | 0 recs
Obama's acceptance speech


by GRO 2008-09-04 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

That is why we need to politically destroy her... if not now, in the future.... she is a walking wedge issue against us, and is incredibly dangerous to not only progressives as a whole, but specifically the women's movement.

I'm hoping that the scandals at some point will take her down...  we shall see... she's a corrupt as any other republican... no wonder she's on the ticket...

by LordMike 2008-09-03 09:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

she will turn every attack onto Barack. The thing to do is ignore her.  Keep her out of the news, at least from us.  

by anna shane 2008-09-03 09:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I'd take a different tack.  Tie her firmly to McCain in temperament.  Her biggest weakness is she has a mean, vicious streak -- as does he.

McCain/Palin: The Angry Alternative.

by jonweasel 2008-09-03 09:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Tie her to McCain in  tempermerment? ABSOLUTLY!! My thoughts exactly as I sat there and watched..and thats no spin either.Thats the reality of it.

by Lodgemannered 2008-09-04 12:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Obama didn't select Hillary and notified Biden with a 3 am phone call.

Even mean and bitter boomerang to Obama

by dtaylor2 2008-09-04 01:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

should read notified supporters with a 3 am phone call.

by dtaylor2 2008-09-04 01:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Get a clue. CNN was breaking the story a little after midnight.....

by xodus1914 2008-09-04 10:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Most people don't have an impression of Obama as mean.  So I think this is a little off.

by jonweasel 2008-09-04 02:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Yes, i think so.  If John is like bush and sarah is like John, how can this help the economy?  McSarah?  

by anna shane 2008-09-04 10:04AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

She blows away Hillary Clinton. Sorry, but that's what it is.

You know this by watching one speech given on her own turf?

Hillary Clinton had the crowd eating out of her hand at the end of the primary season. She went toe to toe with the Obama phenomenon.

Sarah Palin couldn't even try on Hillary's pantsuits.

by spacemanspiff 2008-09-03 09:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I agree with the rest of your post though. We have to try to take her out now. Either way, she's the Republicans Obama.

You think having her upstaging McCain will be a good thing? It will def help her cause for the future, but it effectively torpedoes his campaign.

by spacemanspiff 2008-09-03 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I don't know that she's the new Obama. I think at best she's the new Huckabee, appealing mostly to one segment (albeit a vocal segment) of the base, the religious right.

Running in a general against other Republicans taking their best swipes at her -- I don't see how she dominates the field in 2008. Obama wasn't just a fresh face with good speaking abilities; he had ideas for how to remake the party and frame our agenda and how to run a disciplined campaign.

Palin's a fresh face and can nail a speech but she's being puppeted up by the people who know what they're doing. She's just following the lead of the party elders, not leading herself. I haven't seen a single new idea she's bringing to the table. She just runs the Republican playbook, but doesn't rewrite it, and it's going to need to be rewritten if they hope to return to power someday.

by indythink 2008-09-03 11:05PM | 0 recs
She's NO Obama

Obama's appeal is that he is about uniting the country and uplifting Americans.  

Obama has universal appeal not on in this country but throughout the world.

Palin is about division, hate and mockery which is totally opposite of Obama.  She couldn't get 80,000 people screaming about how to improve this country if she tried.

After an Obama speech, you feel good.  People in general didn't feel good after the Palin speech (expect for the GOP base).

I think that she is the anti-Obama.

by puma 2008-09-04 01:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight
SHE BLOWS CLINTON AWAY?????? WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU SMOKING? She's  not fit to  even be mentioned in the same sentence as Clinton,and I'm not now ,nor have I ever been a Hillary supporter ,but I recognize the brilliance of her oratory skills,her intelligence,and her political astuteness, and I'll tell you  something for nothing ,PAlin has got NOTHING ..let me repeat this..NOTHING WHATSOEVER on Hillary Clinton. Same gender.. thats precisely where any comparisons  or similarities are cut dead... and end.
As quickly as her star  has risen,thats how quickly it will fall.
by Lodgemannered 2008-09-04 12:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I agree. Jerome chill out.  Sarah Palin has zero foreign policy experience and doesn't even have positions on the hot-button issues, other than "Hi, Im a soccer mom and I am pro-life".

I am a dyed in the wool Obamacrat. But watching Palin speak I said to myself.."My respect for Hillary  has just increased exponentially". Hillary, was good on the stump and even better in a debate. She was a policy wonk, and probably will be the reason why Obama blows McCain out of the water when they start talking details in the debate.

They will protect and coach her and shelter her from the press because besides being a cute  face and full of ambition, she has nothing. Hillary, was smart. Period. Ultimately, her arrogance got the best of her but Hillary had a reason to be arrogant. However, Sarah Palin probably believes the hype and that will be her downfall. If McCain doesn't win, she will go back into obscurity for  being the flash in the pan that she is. Probably after the first interview with Tweety, Hafferty or Olbermann.  

The woman can't even take Hillary's pantsuits to the cleaners.

by xodus1914 2008-09-04 09:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I don't think you understand where this country is headed. I wasn't sure of that until this post.

by bruh3 2008-09-03 09:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I don't think anybody really knows that.

Some people confuse their opinions and bias as reality but that doesn't make it so.

Palin is far right.  Charm moves the electorate only so far.  

Nobody knows what the future holds. But don't stress. Have a little faith.  

by dMarx 2008-09-03 09:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

ok. since the entire premise of the diary is about her being a political star of the future- maybe you should write that to jerome.

by bruh3 2008-09-03 09:49PM | 0 recs
Reagan v. JFK?

Perhaps I can buy that but would Reagan have defeated JFK if he was introduced just sixty days to the public before the election.

I guess what Jerome is claiming that the parallel is 1976 with the difference being that Ford (McCain in this case) actually choosing Reagan (Palin in this case).

I'd take back the HRC comment Jerome; I'd love nothing more than a HRC-Palin debate.

by Blazers Edge 2008-09-03 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan v. JFK?

I wish I could, but HRC's not there. Now, I would clarify that what was in my mind in the comparison was the ability to go after Obama effectively, which is the context.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 09:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan v. JFK?

That's not really a fair basis for comparison though, is it?

I mean, as prevalent as the meme was that Hillary Clinton would stop at nothing to defeat Obama, in reality she was very limited in what negative campaign tactics she could use. She could not afford to alienate half the Dem base, and the media was gleefully whipping up racial tensions at the slightest opening. As it was, she went with some very standard kinds of attacks that "well established" candidates use against "fresh faces", and was crucified in the press even for those.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, is expected to go after Obama and be as viscious as she likes. She is not trying to win over any of Obama's voters, just excite the Republican base. Of course she can more effectively attack Obama.

by itsthemedia 2008-09-04 12:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan v. JFK?

A HIllary-Palin debate would be fun, but painful to watch.  Clinton would shred her.

To that end, do you think Hillary will be utilized to take the shine off Palin, and to what extent?

Honestly, I can think of few better suited for the job.  The Repub mouthpieces have been quick to cry sexism as the slightest criticism of Palin.  It would be easy to make that charge against Obama or Biden, but Hillary?  Puh-leeeze.

by fogiv 2008-09-03 09:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Reagan v. JFK?

Hillary would definitely shred Palin on specifics during a debate. Palin is passive in debate setting and relies on a relaxed warm style with big picture themes. That can be very effective and I think she'll give Biden fits.

Just my instinct, but I think Hillary would know how to adjust in a debate vs. a woman, and make Palin look flimsy.

In terms of speech making, Palin has a great conversational style, better than Hillary but not better than Bill. Hillary at her convention best was superior to Palin, but that's not necessarily representative.  

I'm not convinced Palin is our long term obstacle. Assuming Obama wins, she would be masochistic to challenge him in 2012 as an incumbent. Far more astute to wait out her two terms, take a couple of years off to build a foundation, then try to survive the GOP primaries in 2016. But so far removed in Alaska I'm not sure that would allow a major presence for 8 years. Too much chance to drift behind someone else. Also, by 2016 many of the states like Virginia and Colorado could move to our camp in demographic terms, the Emerging Democratic Majority finally released from 9/11 slowdown.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-09-03 11:00PM | 0 recs
Palin is a verified National Enquirer source...

away from being a political afterthought and punchline for a decade. If she's a philanderer - she's done in GOP politics for good.

by johnnyappleseed 2008-09-03 09:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Palin is a verified National Enquirer source..

My gut feeling is that there is nothing to that National Enquirer article.

by dMarx 2008-09-03 09:36PM | 0 recs
They got it right on Edwards.

Whether true or not a lot of people will trust them on this one.

by GFORD 2008-09-03 10:12PM | 0 recs
Palin is a verified National Enquirer source...

If she's a philanderer - she's done in GOP politics for good.

Really?  I thought that was a prerequisite.  Or maybe that was just for the menfolk . . .

by blueAZ 2008-09-03 11:05PM | 0 recs
verified National Enquirer source...

Maybe she will grow a penis, then she can f*ck around all she wants.   The GOP seems to like their men on the unfaithful side.

by gavoter 2008-09-04 05:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I think you are ignoring the problem- at the heart, she is a wingnut extremist, from a fairly non-viable electoral part of the country.  I see her being the nominee in '12, and that could get interesting, but what happens when Biden cleans her clock in the debate?

by Bob Beard 2008-09-03 09:28PM | 0 recs
she's a good debater...

if you go back and look at that 2006 Knowles race.  Her answers are crisp and informed.  On issues where she is farther to the right, she says that's what I believe (and dares you to do something about it).  

I agree with Jerome, she is formidable and could be a future threat to our Party.  A red meater with a baby (a special needs baby) in her arms.

She will be able to finesse all these little things that have come out the past few days (that we know about).  

Biden has got his hands full at that debate.  He should stick to the issues and tie to her the failed ideas of McCain and Bush.  She mocked Biden tonight and the Obama campaign has to make sure he keeps his cool.  

by mboehm 2008-09-03 10:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

"She blows away Hillary Clinton."


She reads a speech from a teleprompter and she is the second coming of Reagan?

Jerome, you need to get laid or something, she is not that good....

by WashStateBlue 2008-09-03 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Hillary clinton was pretty awful in public speaking years ago. She got better only in recent years where she learned to tone down her voice. Face it. That is something most politicians need to get a command of if you are running to be leader of such a big country.

by Pravin 2008-09-03 09:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

True. How Bush got elected twice while only barely being able to speak english is a mystery.

by dMarx 2008-09-03 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I think that's where Dems underestimated him. He spoke the language of the  base.

BTW, as much as I expected this Palin performance, her way of talking does grate a little. That slight nasally accent. Like a semi Fargo. I wonder if the extreme cold does that to accents. heh.

by Pravin 2008-09-04 05:22AM | 0 recs
she improved dramatically

over the past year. It was phenomenal.

Palin seems to be more naturally gifted as a speaker. Hillary had to work hard to get that good.

I disagree with Jerome that Palin was better than HRC. I wasn't even a Clinton supporter, and I literally cried during part of her DNC speech.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-03 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: she improved dramatically

Palin's had plenty of practice.  She was a sportscaster, and from what I've heard she's been professionally trained as a speaker by GOPAC.

What I saw tonight was that she can deliver a speech that's handed to her without too many slipups.  But I'd rate Ann Coulter as more engaging.

by jonweasel 2008-09-03 09:55PM | 0 recs
Re: she improved dramatically

Palin's initial stints as a sportscaster are on youtube. Pretty amusing to see her where she was kind of amateurish.

by Pravin 2008-09-03 11:43PM | 0 recs
Stop with the Reagan crap

I don't know if you're too young to remember Reagan, but I get tired of people assuming that Reagan was this gifted speaker. He was not. He was an average speaker when given a speech to read from a teleprompter. If he had to speak off the cuff, like at a rare news conference, he was absolutely the worst I've ever seen in that setting.

Like everything else about him, his rhetorical skills have been exaggerated more and more as the years have passed. Same with his popularity. He spent much of his presidency with low approval ratings, and was considerably less popular at the end of his presidency than Clinton was at the end of his. Quit feeding this Reagan mythology.  

by bouvougan 2008-09-04 04:53AM | 0 recs
Palin predictably impressive but............

I have saying this for days now. Dont underestimate this woman. I am not in the least surprised by the delivery. I am just shocked some seem to be.

I have been on the record as saying that I wish McCain chose lieberman because that would have killed the base.

Having said that, Tracy Flick sure gave enough stuff for Obama to attack back

  1. Question her command of the facts. She made some heartwarming references to common folk aobut to be burdened by Obama's tax increases. Someone should cut an ad with that part and then cut away to Obama promising middle class tax cuts. And then a voiceover questioning Palin's command of the facts and then ask "who really is all style and no substance here?"
  2. Someone should cut another ad with Mccain talking about the need to get rid of torture and then cut away to Palin making fun of Obama on this issue.
  3. another ad where facts are trotted about the Iraq war, and then to this woman who blindly talks about McCain's judgement on this war without adding any of her own.

by Pravin 2008-09-03 09:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Palin predictably impressive but............

Nah, she opened up our line of attack wide open by lying through her teeth. McCain and Palin both are running on a record they don't really have, and it'll actually be easier to use Palin's record to further McCain's flip-flops.

THEY are liars and schemers who will say whatever it takes to get elected. And nobody actually knows what they will do. That's our line of attack, focused ENTIRELY on McCain, even when it includes Palin.

by vcalzone 2008-09-03 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I had a different feel really.  To compare to Hillary, think about when Hillary was near the end of the race and could kind of really let loose and didn't have to worry about discipline.  

I think it was a poor introduction to the country, too cynical by half it came off as mean.  I think people will remember mean, sharp not much else.  

How do I know?

My wife who is not involved in politics only turned to the convention at 10:00pm came down stairs after 10 minutes and said, she's mean and arrogant.  She said We've seen these other people, who is she to stay this stuff?

No kidding...

by nextgen 2008-09-03 09:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I gave you a 2 because admidst Jerome's insiders view of thing- I think what's gets lost is what people who aren't involved in politics see.

by bruh3 2008-09-03 09:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight


I who watch this stuff all the time thought some of the jabs were excellent and her timing great but we are the minority.  

I'm going to call my born again, pro life, sister in law tomorrow and get her opinion.  

My wife's "I don't like her, she's mean" was not a drive by comment.  She said it, then came back and said.  "She's sarcastic, I don't like her"  

I don't like her is what shocked me, not I don't like what she's saying, or how she's saying it but I don't like her.  


I think women have a special sense of when other women are pretending to be nicer than they really are and see cynicism where I don't.

by nextgen 2008-09-03 09:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Yeah- its striking what works for politicos versus what works for non politico types. I learned that lesson with Shiavo.

by bruh3 2008-09-03 09:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Glad to hear about Mrs. Nextgen. Nice to know I'm not only woman whose reaction to Palin's speech was that if you'd put her in a vacuum tube and brought the temperature down to 0 Kelvin, you'd have the international platinum-iridium standard for a total bitch.

by MollyNYC 2008-09-03 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Same with the people I know outside of politics. They don't like her and tonight didn't change their minds one bit.

by vcalzone 2008-09-03 09:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I think the problem is she was n't gradually introduced so much as thrust among the voters, and they did so with all this baggage. I am trying hard not to look at this in a partisan way- I just don't see her appeal with where the country is going to head in the next few years.

by bruh3 2008-09-03 09:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight


They didn't lay any foundation for that house to sit.  She came out of left field throwing hay makers against a guy with pretty high positives.  

Worst combination, if people think she's unprepared and out of bounds.

by nextgen 2008-09-03 10:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

The problem she faces in the long term is that her brand of conservatism will increasingly come under attack as the GOP tries to rebuild itself should it lose this election and 2010.

by bruh3 2008-09-03 10:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight
my grandmother said the same thing....
"after he was so nice about her daughter....
by epiphany 2008-09-03 11:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

She just gave Biden the green light to go straight after her.

by RandyMI 2008-09-03 09:33PM | 0 recs
no no no

Biden should ignore her and keep going after McCain. We don't want to make her into the victim. Let the beltway journalists keep going after her.

by desmoinesdem 2008-09-03 09:41PM | 0 recs
Re: no no no

I like what Sullivan said on this subject. In this race, Joe Biden has truly become the reliable, stable and steady voice. Joe Biden.

by vcalzone 2008-09-03 09:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Better still, I'd like to see Hillary go straight after her.

by fogiv 2008-09-03 09:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

One speech does not a great leader make.

I, however, do believe that the ability to speak effectively and succinctly should be a required skill for our nation's highest delegate.  But this is only a tool that should be used to deliver on the positions of the official, not the sole qualifying trait.

I'd take Hillary's mastery of the issues over Sarah's canned speech delivery any day.  I'm very interested in seeing what she does without the prompter, one-on-one with the voters of the heartland.  She performed well tonight.  However, if voters think you're only performing, it doesn't sell.  

This is why Barack has been so successful.  When voters get up close and personal with him, they fall in love because they realize that it's not just performance.  He can turn off the orator long enough to be human with folks.  Like or despise him or his politics, this is the whole of his gift.  

I'm not sure she's this kind of threat.  For Pete's sakes, she just learned what the VP does a week or so ago!  Hillary would run circles around her - despite the oratorical edge Palin may have.

by ILean Left 2008-09-03 09:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I agree with you on Obama and his charm power.

This is why McCain went for Palin.  He needed some charm on his ticket.  Like you said, we still don't know how good she is.

I think it is a mistake to esteem her as a dummy.  What she did to the oil companies in Alaska made her popular even with many Dems ... and it showed savy.  I think the latest polls showed she has an 87% approval rating in Alaska. Crazy.

by dMarx 2008-09-03 09:42PM | 0 recs
The Debate

We will find out how she is on the issues during the debate.  I would not underestimate Palin, I doubt Biden is.

by Classical Liberal 2008-09-03 09:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The Debate

I'll make the prediction right now:

The expectations game on foreign policy will be such that a correct pronunciation of "Ossetia" will be sufficient to earn her praise from the media, and on economic policy she'll do what any halfway competent Alaska pol would and pivot to energy, where she'll again do what any halfway competent Alaska pol would and talk drilling.

The debate setting will be fine for her unless Biden presses home an effective line of attack, or she makes a serious unforced error.

by Jay R 2008-09-03 09:59PM | 0 recs
Re: The Debate

I was thinking about what an effective line of attack would be, in a debate sense, and I've been going back and forth.  I don't think he should be waiting for her to stumble or look uncomfortable on TV and make the arguments for him.  He's going to have to set a few traps for her to fall into, and here's what I see as the most likely one.

1. Get her to overplay the "outsider" card.  He can be courteous and gentlemanly to her and at the same time point out that just being an outsider isn't enough.  Bush was an outsider and was governor of a state with a much bigger budget than Alaska's and look where the country is now.  He appointed an outsider to run FEMA, and look what happened in New Orleans with Katrina.

2. Get her to overplay the sarcasm.  Again, courtesy and kindness (but not into condescension) is key here.  Biden should smile a lot, and when she takes shots at him or Obama he should chuckle, say "Actually, that's pretty funny.  My compliments to your speechwriters." and then defend himself and Obama on substance.  Use just enough personal story to match up with Palin's family stuff to warm up the viewing audience (if he can find a way to work in losing his first wife and finding the strength to work through it, so much the better but don't force it).  It's even better if he can get her to attack him on some family-related issue and then tie the response back to it.

3. Get her to show lots of hubris.  Biden should be a humble, "aw, shucks" regular guy in his manner who can then pull out facts and point out inconsistencies in McCain's record and his promises, and say things like "Maybe you should be the candidate" to get her to slip up.  I bet she already thinks she should be the one running instead of him, and it wouldn't be hard to tap into the latent misogyny that lots of Republican men still feel.

by beerwulf 2008-09-04 06:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Also, this is funny. I've a cousin who's husband is the son of Palin's preacher in Alaska-- not the crazy guest one but the Sr. Minister. Yea, but not blood!

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 09:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Heh. Small world.

by dMarx 2008-09-03 09:43PM | 0 recs
OK, but ...

How does Kevin Bacon fit into this scenario?

by itsthemedia 2008-09-03 11:44PM | 0 recs
Historical basis for sarcasm trumping pain?

Because, quite frankly, I can't think of a single election where this has been the case.

by Homebrewer 2008-09-03 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight
Not sure if this is tonight's open thread, but after the vapid nastiness of tonight's GOP speakers I thought some might appreciate something light-hearted (but still biting):

I think this may be my favorite political ad of the season (so far).
by moreperfectunion 2008-09-03 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome, your off the farm on this 1.

The Hillary Clinton campaign is disgusting J.A.  She has no future in the GOP after the Enquirer and investigating Journalist get a hold of her skeletons.  Jerome your also missing the visual dude.  Palin does not come across as someone who could hold the political stature aka pantsuit membership.  Dude she looks like a constrained m.i.l.f, most normal nonpolitical men look at her and find it hard to take her seriously.  Then finally the GOP honestly doesn't give much credence to the roll of women in their party, thats why you can count the total # of them serving in the Congress and the senate on 2 hands.  So, dude her future is now, the next 60 days then after that she'll be headed back to Alaska to go cook up some more moose stew.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-03 09:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome, your off the farm on this 1.

 (correction) The comparison to the Hillary campaign...

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-03 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome, your off the farm on this 1.

There are enough valid issues we can hit Palin on, there isn't any need to be degrading to women in the process.  Seriously.

by Tenafly Viper 2008-09-03 09:46PM | 0 recs
The Soft Bigotry of Low Expectations

rears its ugly head.  Try to chew the hype just a little before you start gobbling it down.

by JJE 2008-09-03 09:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Sure there were plenty of people who were excited tonight...they were all in that hall...they were all looking through an intensely blind partisan Republican filter, because anyone else would realize that she lied about her own record and that of the Democratic nominee.  Her aggression might excite the base but it will not bode well with anyone not of the Republican persuasion and let's be honest when we make this about the issues, who is a repug anymore:

Americans are pro-choice (67 percent)

Americans support the Geneva Conventions with regards to torture (57 percent)

Americans don't want the government snooping in their bank and internet records (67 percent)

Americans support protecting the environment at the expense of economic growth (55 percent)

Americans believe that global warming is happening (86 percent)

Americans believe that it's the government's responsibility to provide health care (69 percent)

Americans support the decriminalization of marijuana (55 percent) and support the legalization of medical marijuana (78 percent)

Americans are opposed to attacking Iran (68 percent, according to a CNN Poll)

Americans support labor unions (60 percent)

Americans want government funding of embryonic stem cell research (56 percent)

Americans believe rich people and corporations aren't paying enough taxes (66 and 71 percent respectively)

by Tenafly Viper 2008-09-03 09:42PM | 0 recs
If voters really cared about issues,

we'd have a permanent majority.

Unfortunately, American voters are stupid.

by Geekesque 2008-09-03 09:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Yeah--one of the things that really creeped me out this evening was when at least two speakers (Romney and Palin) expressed their contempt for due process. (Romney referred to it as a "liberal" idea.)

Biden might bring up her obvious disdain for, and probably ignorance of, the Constitution.

by MollyNYC 2008-09-03 10:36PM | 0 recs
Just to be clear ...

Due process of law is a liberal idea. So is everything else in the Bill of Rights, and most of the rest of the Constitution. But you knew that, right?

by itsthemedia 2008-09-03 11:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

> Americans support the Geneva Conventions with regards to torture (57 percent)

That item in particular makes me want to break down and cry. 43% of Americans either condone torture, or are not sure? That is awful.

by itsthemedia 2008-09-03 11:42PM | 0 recs
Sarah Palin is a star

And we ignore that salient fact at our peril.  Don't view Palin through blue tinted glasses - because underestimating her would be a grave mistake.  Far too many Progressive bloggers have been dismissing Palin, calling her the `Yukon Barbie'.  It just won't wash, folks.  Kerry dismissed the swiftboaters as beneath his contempt - and look where that got him.  Palin has one hell of an appeal - and to more than just the Jerry Springer crowd.  She sounds like anybody's neighbor - but a neighbor who can make clear points and debate them.  Mainstream America gonna just eat this up. Go ahead - ask your neighbors if they heard her speak - and if they did - did she appeal to them?  I'm betting she goes over better than anyone thinks.  The woman has an 85% approval rating in Alaska.  That's gonna translate.  People find her likeable.  What we have to do is convince them she's not right for the job.

To do that, we really have to get beyond the school-yard taunting.  Palin is a real-time danger.  And I agree with Jerome - she will indeed be the 2012 Republican nominee (barring something monumentally stupid on her part).  But then, I think she may have `Bubba' appeal (a la Bill Clinton) - the ability to shake off scandal like droplets of water.  So we need to try and take her out now - diminish her appeal.  Hammer Palin on how out of step with mainstream America she really is.  Point out the differences between her stated opinions and everything Obama and Biden stand for.  But do not dismiss this woman out of hand.  And above all (for the love of God!) - do not attack her gender or her family.  It will turn people off and make Democrats look like misogynistic bullies.  

by The Fat Lady Sings 2008-09-03 09:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

I worked for Jerry Springer in '03 when he was thinking about running against Voinovich for '04. I still believe Jerry would have won, so does every other consultant that was doing the advising at the time. The underlying poll dynamics at work in his favor were mind boggling.

Your neighbor. Are they more likely to talk to you in the tone of Obama, Clinton, or Palin when just sitting around? Palin's speech is talk.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 09:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

You do understand that this post essentially reduces the process of picking a VP down to nothing more than finding someone with a complimentary speaking style, right?  That anyone who can deliver a well-rehearsed speech in an acceptable tone is a good pick for the #2 job in the Executive Branch of the United States government?

Palin wasn't a bad pick because of her speaking style, or because she's generated nearly a week of wall-to-wall negative coverage, or because of family scandals.  She was a bad pick because she's not someone the American people are going to trust to serve as President if the need arises.

by Jay R 2008-09-03 09:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

I will admit you have better insight than me having worked with Springer but I don't see it.  I see her more like a pro-life female Giuliani than a Springer.

Springer looks and sounds "warm" she just looks warm.  

Kind of on the same topic. I think Guiliani did her a real disservice by going long, her Bio Movie would have gone a long way to softening the edges of tonight.  

We will know pretty quick (not tracking) but focus group feedback on her performance.  I'm going to bet people are going to be surprised with the big negatives.

by nextgen 2008-09-03 09:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

Who knows, they might just play the bio tomorrow night and have her into McCain's bio, they might as well cut McCain short to dish more Palin.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 09:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

True, true but I think it would have been much more effective as a frame, rather than a post script.  

I'm sure they expected to have that speech juxtaposed with the bio, now that would have been really effective.

I saw a poll today we can use as the best available baseline.  

Is your opinion of Sarah Palin favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Sarah Palin yet to have an opinion?

      26% Favorable (8/29-31: 22%)
      13% Unfavorable (11%)
      15% Undecided (7%)
      45% Haven't heard enough (59%) favorable_rating_912.php

I'm sure they plan to follow-up

by nextgen 2008-09-03 10:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star


You really worked for Jerry Springer?

by Stipes 2008-09-03 09:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

yea, fun stuff. We flew around with him on his private plane eating M & M's one day.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 10:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

It would have been a shame to waste him on Ohio.  Run his ass in Florida.  Springer v Martinez sounds like fun, n'est-ce pas?

by Jay R 2008-09-03 10:49PM | 0 recs
My neighbors sound like Palin, I'm afraid

Exactly like her.  That's why we don't have political discussions.  I'm an anomaly down here.  Everybody's Republican and consider themselves 'rednecks'.  Funnily enough - when I lived in a suburb of Chicago - my neighbors there sounded exactly the same - redneck and Republican.

I think Palin's gonna really appeal to a certain section of mainstream America.  Her addition to the ballot has really hyped it up down here in Georgia.  The people not already committed to Barr are now on board with McCain.  I've said this woman was a threat from day one.  We can beat her (if we stay on message) - but it won't be a walk in the park like some seem to think.

And I auditioned for Springer's show back when I was a working actor.  I liked the man.  For all the show was an orchestrated three ring circus - he was a classy act.

by The Fat Lady Sings 2008-09-03 10:03PM | 0 recs
Re: My neighbors sound like Palin, I'm afraid

he's a total class act. the show is nothing to him but what he shows up for and gawks alongside everyone watching the freakshow.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 10:22PM | 0 recs
Well, except for the hooker thing,

Other than that, class all the way!

by JJE 2008-09-03 10:32PM | 0 recs
They are more likely to talk to

me like Obama or Clinton.  But then my neighbors are not raging conservatives. They are educated people who care about real issues like healthcare and the environment.

by GFORD 2008-09-03 10:21PM | 0 recs
None of them

my neighbors generally don't read from a script when I talk to them.  This analogy doesn't work.

by JJE 2008-09-03 10:31PM | 0 recs
Re: None of them

Mine generally respond to questions about what they're saying, too, as opposed to just reciting lines to me.

But I suppose People Magazine does hard-hitting political journalism sometimes, right?


by Jay R 2008-09-03 10:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

She is no star fat lady.  Your off.  Please Rassmussen just released a hypothetical poll in a head to head matchup Hillary beats her by 12 points.  What you and Jerome seem to forget is that the GOP doesn't think a womans place is as POTUS or CIC.  That's the reality.  To win all the democratic party has to do is put up a Mark Warner who would attract GOPERs or put up HRC and it's game over.  Honestly could you imagine if roles were reversed and Palin was a dem and was going through all this shit.  Her future would be similar to that of John Edwards.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-03 09:55PM | 0 recs
You overlook one thing...

She sounds like anybody's neighbor - but a neighbor who can make clear points and debate them.

The "neighbor who can make clear points and debate them" is generally the neighbor that everyone else in the neighborhood tries their best to avoid.

by JDWalley 2008-09-03 10:46PM | 0 recs
I hope you're right -

But I still say Palin needs to be taken seriously.  Underestimating her would be a huge mistake.  Obama and Biden have to design a strategy and go after her - on policy.  I only hope their surrogates don't think the Clinton line of attack will work here.  She's not Hillary, she won't remind people OF Hillary - so they have to attack Palin on HER grounds.  It aint gonna be easy.  As much as everyone here or at Kos say she's annoying and no one will like her - I disagree.  I fear that's exactly what WILL appeal to people.  She comes across as someone willing to get their hands dirty to get the job done (whatever that job may be).  True or not (useful or not) - that working class image is what Palin projects.  Lots of people will respond to that - positively.  I don't have specific advice for them - but Obama and Biden MUST fight her on those grounds.  Ignoring or belittling the woman will only come across as bullying.

I'm actually rather worried.

by The Fat Lady Sings 2008-09-03 11:03PM | 0 recs
Re: I hope you're right -

Or perhaps she can repeatedly play the race card against Obama like Hillary Clinton did.

I don't actually mean that, but your post comes off that way. "Obama can't get all sexist on her.  He has to attack her on POLICY."

by Jordache 2008-09-04 12:46AM | 0 recs
And that's the problem in a nutshell

You sound like a Republican zealot.  Take off the blue blinders and think.  Bashing Hillary (or me) won't help get Obama elected.  If that's all it's about for you - then anything I've had to say (or could say) will fall on deaf ears.  Defeating Sarah Palin should be what's more important here.  

by The Fat Lady Sings 2008-09-04 12:59AM | 0 recs
Re: You overlook one thing...

we don't sound like that in my neighborhood...but then i'm on the upper east side

by epiphany 2008-09-03 11:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Sarah Palin is a star

What monumentally stupid thing does she have to do, do you suppose?

Because from where I stand, taking your teenage daughter out of school, then making her take on the child-care responsibilities for the Downs baby that you decided you just had to have, then making her marry some unemployed gum-snapping jackass, all at an age when any mother  who didn't completely suck would be getting her girl ready for college, sort of looks like emotionally abusing your kid in public.

by MollyNYC 2008-09-03 10:55PM | 0 recs
I agree

But remember - it's not what you or I think is egregious - it's what certain independent voters label as over the top.  From another point of view - her family problems look like a lot of other people's family problems.  It makes her look more like them - and that's the part of her appeal that may escape some people.  Take my neighbors, for instance: one family's dealing with two drug addicted sons, one of whom was enough of a fuck-up that he got booted from the Navy before even being deployed.  Another's going through a nasty divorce resulting in the pampered child from hell (nasty little git's gonna be in jail someday, I'm sure).

Then there's the perpetually pixilated old lady down the road, and the rednecks who get liquored up and shoot off their guns from the back porch every weekend.  These people all vote, believe it or not - and they usually vote Republican.  Oh yes - Palin's gong over gangbusters down here.  Those family problems only make her more attractive - not less.  I do not understand it - but there you are.  What would she have to do to turn them off?  Something that comes across as anti-family or un-American in my opinion.  Were she caught cheating on her husband, say - or burning the flag.  That would stop her chances here in redneck country right quick.  Barring that - I'd say she's a hit.

by The Fat Lady Sings 2008-09-03 11:24PM | 0 recs
Re: I agree
I have no doubt that Palin will attract the republican base, especially evangelicals (though some are probably disappointed that god wasn't in that speech more). That isn't going to hurt us, they weren't voting for Obama anyway.
The question is, will she attract independents/swing voters?
The speech I heard last night was attack Liberals on all the same old talking points (yes, she even threw San Francisco in there)- I've been hearing that same speech from republicans for 20 years.
She lied when talking about the bridge to nowhere, when talking about reform, and when talking about Obama.
She'll make a great republican, but I don't think she's going to win many more votes from people that are losing their homes, losing their jobs, and looking at a hopeless future.
by skohayes 2008-09-04 03:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I suspect there are those behind the scenes much less surprised by Palin's emergence as a candidate.  She is right out of central casting in the sense that she's the perfect diversion for Big Bad Johhny McCain to hide behind. Some in the right wing press (e.g. NewsMax) have been working behind the scenes to get her on the ticket.

The GOP push in this case may be less about women voters and more about creating an acceptable mate for McCain who is "new" and who can help secure fear votes after the GOP's ruthless 527s unleash the furious attacks on Obama.  In other words they needed a "new" face to push the reform image.

Don't forget the race card. McCain ain't seriously chasing votes from any minorities right now.  So the "play" is about making white independent voters who are still undecided, scared about Obama, and comfortable with the Republican alternative.

I actually found Palin's speaking style annoying in terms of her delivery. She often appeared snotty and very condescending. At points she sounded more like a teacher speaking down to kids, than a candidate speaking to voters.  But, for tonight she gave a crowd that wanted red meat exactly that.

I would agree that she will be on the scene in 2012 regardless of what happens this year.  However, any notion that she "blows away" Hillary is sheer delusion.  Hillary, quite frankly, would clean her clock.  

One of the challenges a man (in this case Biden) has to overcome is not appearing to be overly aggressive like he's trying to bully a female opponent.  

I would bet you'll see Palin set that trap with debating style of interrupting.  But, if Biden interrupts her in return, he becomes the bad guy.  

Remember 2004?  John Edwards tried to be nice with Cheney and made a very supportive comment about they way Dick and Lynne have supported their gay daughter.  It was intended as a nice gesture.  One day later Edwards was ruthlessly attacked after the GOP advisers taught the Cheney's how to act offended and outraged at what was characterized one day later as a mean spirited slight.  It was all baloney but Edwards took a hit and never regained his footing.

Hillary would not have such a problem and you're hearing this from someone who did not support her this year.  

It's too early to predict Plain's future.  It could be good or her numerous controversies could make her a one year wonder.

Final thought. It's still largely about McCain.  If he shows up tomorrow, gives an OK speech, but repeatedly cracks that "Tales From The Crypt" smile of his, he could blow it all.  

by bob4NJ2008 2008-09-03 09:46PM | 0 recs
Jerome, I love ya buddy, but...

...this post makes no sense.

So I'm guessing it's brilliant snark above my pay grade.

Her speech was lame. It completely lacked any gravitas. I'd vote for her as PTA prez in a heartbeat...but next in line for Commander in Chief? Seriously?

by Scan 2008-09-03 09:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Jerome, I love ya buddy, but...

i am afraid I am outing my ignorance too, but I cannot find the punchline in the diary I was waiting for, so now I think it must be snark....right?  

by KLRinLA 2008-09-03 10:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Anyone that thinks McCain could have chosen better than Palin, among the GOP ranks, is on drugs.
On drugs, or thinks that the likelihood that a VP might have to assume the top office in a time of crisis necessitates someone with a modicum of relevant expertise.

I've been saying since the pick was announced that we underestimate her as a candidate at our own peril, but that doesn't make her a good choice for an important role in a Constitutional government.

We've known her for a week, and in that time we've had a scandal a day, no interviews, no firm policy answers, and no idea what makes her think she's capable of serving as President should the need arise.  The only way "Anyone that thinks McCain could have chosen better than Palin, among the GOP ranks, is on drugs" makes any sense is if you think none of those facts--especially the last one--matter.

by Jay R 2008-09-03 09:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Exactly J.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-03 10:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

But surely it's not news to anyone here that the GOP cares more about winning elections than governing the country.

by Steve M 2008-09-03 10:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Exactly.  So does Jerome think we should stop pointing that fact out because the one they picked this time around knows how to play to the most favorable audience imaginable?

by Jay R 2008-09-03 10:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I can't tell if this is a joke or not. My boyfriend and I both watched her speech and thought she was rather boring. On style alone she spoke too slowly, paused in areas that needed more punch and was all over the place. She shined compared to the other blowhards in her party, but saying she is a great speaker is laughable.

by Dari 2008-09-03 09:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

She won over the hardcore socially conservative right (who were going to vote McCain anyway), that in turn injected some energy to the voters who were gung-ho McCain already. It basically "fired up" the GOP base.  Unfortunately the GOP is well behind the Democrats in party affiliation.

Lets face it there are about 10-12% truly undecided voters out there, and they're moderates.  I saw nothing in any of the speeches tonight that talked about specifics on fixing the economy, addressing our long term energy dependence or Palin's knowledge of Foreign Policy.  This is what these undecideds are looking for, and all the got was the same old "mud-slinging".

If their goal was to fire up the base using one liners and smearing Obama...mission accomplished.  If their goal was to appeal to the moderates of the election (who are more educated on the issues)...They failed.

by hootie4170 2008-09-03 09:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Yeah, exactly.

What they effectively got tonight is a good week of fundraising among the far right. They saw the pretty girl, they loved the red meat, they logged onto the Internets with their MasterCards, and they sent Grampa McCain some cash tonight. That'll keep going for a couple of days.

While I tend to agree that Palin made herself known nationally tonight, and that she's the new star of the right, I'd like to see how she connects with people on the campaign trail before I anoint her the Chosen One. Right now, all she's proven is that she's able to go on the attack. Alan Keyes is good at that, too, but I'm not placing any bets on his political future.

by Jaxon 2008-09-03 10:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

So among political candidates with vaginas, it's Palin 1, Clinton 0 on your scorecard. Good to know, I guess.

You could have easily made your point -- that Palin is a national playa now, and she's going to be one for awhile -- without the swipe at Clinton. Palin's young. How does she compare to Schweitzer? Isn't that a more valid (and interesting) comparison? How does their party's future measure up against our party's future?

Frankly, who gives a shit how she stacks up to Clinton? Why is that even relevant? If the stars somehow align, and Palin somehow winds up running against Clinton in 2012, then a direct comparison makes sense. Until then, it's really just you spouting off that you feel Sarah beat Hillary in the Political Olympics, Female Category.

Such myopic comparisons aren't necessary. Both Palin and Clinton get to run against men, too.

by Jaxon 2008-09-03 10:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

the comparison with Clinton was contra Obama.... don't get sexist on me.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-03 10:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Fair enough.

by Jaxon 2008-09-03 10:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I think Palin hit it out of the ballpark, I was truly surprised as I had no idea what to expect...


I do like the "fighters" and that she is....a pit bull with lipstick!!! (great line)....

However, she is NO hillary clinton....

Hillary's speech last week was inspiring and about unity

Hillary can also be a pit bull in "pantsuits" and knows how to attack and fight....(slumlord rezko comes to mind)....

I believe Obama's biggest mistake is his FIRST big decision...he shoulda picked hillary for VP....

I will be watching with great anticipation her future speeches and can't wait for the debate...

I actually think she will blow Joe Biden out of the water.....

by nikkid 2008-09-03 10:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Yeah, but Jerome seems to believe that Sarah Palin, Great Mastermind of All Democracy, would carve Hillary Clinton up into tiny bits and leave her for dead. After all, Sarah Palin gave a great big speech in front of a friendly audience and everything.

Sarah Palin can't even pull off one-on-ones with local media types effectively. She's a stuttering nincompoop when the cameras from the Anchorage NewsChannel 5 show up at her offices. Right now, I think we should can some of the hype and view her for what she is -- a very hot prospect who was rushed to the bigs early. This sort of thing happens all the time, but they don't always pan out. Just ask Elliott Spitzer. Or John Edwards. Or Dan Quayle.

Some people wrote a speech for her tonight, and she read it effectively. It is what it is.

by Jaxon 2008-09-03 10:10PM | 0 recs

"I actually think she will blow Joe Biden out of the water....."

Is this snark?

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:25PM | 0 recs
Re: What?

To keep up the metaphor:

The expectations game will require Biden to make an incredibly well-aimed shot directly into her powder magazine, whereas she'll already have a mine strapped to his hull and a remote detonator in her hand.

In other words, she just has to stay afloat to 'win' that matchup.

by Jay R 2008-09-03 10:33PM | 0 recs
Re: What?

I understand the expectations game is quit a different standard. But are we to beleive that Joe Biden doesn't have a better grasp of what's at stake? I'm sure he can do that without sound too paternalistic. This whole argument that Biden has to take it easy or that somehow her expectations are so slow that showing up is good enough is fallacious at best.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 11:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What?

I think it's irrational, though not necessarily fallacious, since we're talking about massaging the media as much as anything else when we talk about the debate.  What will generate good press for one is not the same as for the other (though, I agree, our best bet is to let Biden loose and watch him simply dominate on national policy--he'll be able to trap Palin on the internal inconsistencies as long as Ifill doesn't stop him, and that should make for good TV)

by Jay R 2008-09-03 11:21PM | 0 recs
Never said Republican or Democrat

Giuliani said "Republican" once, referring to Palin's challenging Republican corruption in Alaska.  He said "Democrat" three times, referring to the Iraq war.

Palin never said either word.

That matters.  They are scared.  They have listened to the people, read the polls, and they know that voters want no more Republicans running the country.

by DML 2008-09-03 10:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Never said Republican or Democrat

Why do you think McCain was choosen to run?

by Classical Liberal 2008-09-03 10:06PM | 0 recs
They are hoping he will be the

new Barry Goldwater and Palin will come sweeping in and start the new "Reagan (Palin?) revolution.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:24PM | 0 recs
Re: They are hoping he will be the

Do you think McCain is like Goldwater?

by Classical Liberal 2008-09-03 10:33PM | 0 recs
Re: They are hoping he will be the

Not at all. Goldwater was what the Republic party used to be.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:54PM | 0 recs
I meant in the sense

of the electorate.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 11:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Never said Republican or Democrat

McCain wasn't chosen to run.  He wasn't the choice of any of the GOP bigwigs.

He won because Romney and Huckabee split the traditional Republican voters.  Normally the activists of the party would pick a winner and stick with them, but it just so happened that Huckabee turned out to be SO charismatic and Romney was so... not.

McCain skated through between them.  Why do you think Republicans have been so gloomy, and why do you think they're going apeshit now if he was really their choice?

by Jordache 2008-09-04 12:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Jerome, you give Ms. Palin WAY too much credit...  You're practically fawning all over her.  I realize that she may be a very good speaker (although, her voice is like fingernails grating the chalkboard to many), but a good speaker does not a leader make.  Her policies are SO extremely far out of the mainstream that it's very, very difficult to see her playing well to most Americans.  She may be ready for prime time, but her ideology is past its prime.  She doesn't hold a candle to Hillary Clinton, and I frankly wonder about your health for so adamantly declaring the contrary.  Great speech or not, she's still an inexperienced governor with radical right-wing views who finds herself steeped in controversy and scandal.  Clearly she dazzled you, but I give Americans more credit than that, and believe that most will easily see beyond the sparkle and charm.

by CooperCraigM 2008-09-03 10:01PM | 0 recs
I am of the different opinion

I think the speech was very bland and average. She didn't impress me and she was basically reading off a laundary list of talking points. It's hard for me to tell what other purpose she would serve other than being McCain's attack dog. She doesn't bring anything of value to the country and most voters will see through it.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:22PM | 0 recs
Re: I am of the different opinion

And if she's McCain's attack dog, then it means she'll be fair game, no matter what the pundits say. If Obama tries to take the high road and she pushes him to the ground, nobody sane will consider it sexist if he pushes back. So long as he does it in a more dignified manner than she's doing it.

by vcalzone 2008-09-04 03:46AM | 0 recs
She will be a leading General

in a doomed culture war.

I think she would have been a brilliant pick 4 or 8 years ago. But the era of the GOP just running roughshod is coming to an end.

I would bet you the Dem fundraising and recruting is going to spike over the next week. She has inflamed more than HER base.

by Neef 2008-09-03 10:02PM | 0 recs
Red meat with a side of mashed potatoes

People keep saying the speach was all red meat, but it was more than low punches.  It was targeted attacks with interwoven logical arguments.  You have to understand there is a whirlwind of information out their and it is hard to see through the clutter.  Her attacks were aimed at the 'gut feeling' of the electorate.

I read through the speech again looking at the political jabs and they really are reasoned and with very specific messages targeted at middle america. ns/Story?id=5720910&page=1

by Classical Liberal 2008-09-03 10:04PM | 0 recs
They are not reasoned at all.

Most of what she said was flat out bullshit. Especially when she started talking about taxes. I almost threw my mug at the TV. Targeted? Absolutely, that was the whole point in picking her. The Republics know that voters won't and can't relate to John McCain, especially not after the whole 7 house-gate.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Red meat with a side of mashed potatoes

The line about Obama being worried about reading terrorists thier rights is a crock. That is the type of bullshit lie that the Republicans use all the time. There was no well reasoned argument there, just misrepresentation.

by gert 2008-09-04 02:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

We need to take her down quickly.  I thought she showed a lot of appeal to white, working-class women and men in rustbelt states.  She worries me in Ohio, PA, Michigan, Missouri.

Not her issue stances, but her personality and story is very appealing and very relatable to those crucial voters.

Having the media and others mock her only make her stronger.

by bdog 2008-09-03 10:04PM | 0 recs
But that was the whole in picking

her in the first place. To appeal to those very same people you are talking about. However,once they see how far to the right she really is, I am confident she will fail.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Let's be careful here. She gave a powerful speech in front of an enthusiastic crowd.

But unlike Barack and Hillary, she hasn't gone to all the states and met the people she intends to govern.

Hillary speaks from her heart and relates the personal stories of people who have suffered.

Palin simply reads a teleprompter very well, and actually dissed people of all political persuasions who try to bring some hope to people in need.

Her enemies are straw dogs - let's stay on message.

by mo 2008-09-03 10:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

It's funny watching the 'pugs bash liberals for their hero worship of Obama, then turn right around and bow down at the altar of Sarah Palin, like she's the savior of the Republican Party or something.

The 29 percenters may love her, but the rest of the country thinks she's a joke.

by JK47 2008-09-03 10:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I do not understand where anyone would get the impression that the American people are yearning to launch another culture war.

Sarah Palin may be the future of the Republican Party, but does the Republican Party have a future?  Not if they go in that direction, they don't.  America is not going to vote for a hardcore evangelical even if she makes a great first impression.  After 8 years of Bush, the polls all tell us that people are yearning for more separation of church and state, not less.

I remember when, for at least a couple days, liberals were terrified that the GOP had discovered some awesome wedge issue with the Terri Schiavo situation.  And then the polls started to come out and we quickly learned that three-quarters of America was simply repulsed by the spectacle.

If the evangelicals get to call more and more of the shots in the GOP as time goes on, what's going to happen is that you're going to see more and more Ken Blackwell types winning every primary.   And I hope people remember how Ken Blackwell did in the general election.

Liberals need to stop getting spooked by the mythical power of the GOP base already.  Independents are less and less likely to go for this crap with each passing day.

by Steve M 2008-09-03 10:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I completely agree, and by picking Palin, John McCain has opened up a direct line of attack: that he is not a maverick at all, but a far-right wing, stinking, dirty REPUBLICAN.  Team Obama is going to do everything it can to paint McCain as a real wingnut, and McCain just made it a hell of a lot easier.

This election just turned into "wingnuts vs. everybody else."  It's over.

by JK47 2008-09-03 10:13PM | 0 recs
You are spot on

The Republic base is getting more and more to the right. As this happens only far right wingnuts are going to come through in primaries. We may see a Republic future where they slowly become a regional party. However, I was at the bar and as far as anecdotals go the Republics there were very very impressed with her. However I believe you are right in that if the GOP keeps pushing these far right wedge issues it will turn off indies and any moderate republics still left casting even further to the right. It will take probably a good generation until recover.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

She has a future only if her scandals don't destroy her first, and only if she moderates her fringe-radical views.

I think the republican reaction to her is partly a matter of low morale.  Given how down the repubs are this year, someone with just a different bit of spark can seem like the second coming of Ronald Reagan, their own version of the real deal, Barack Obama, or even Hillary Clinton.  

It's also a problem for McCain that it seems like the repubs are enthusiastic for a Palin/McCain ticket, not a McCain/Palin ticket.  Is anyone really excited about tomorrow's speech?  Whenever I see McCain speak, he's either deathly dull or scary/angry/bitter.  He's got a great delivery with telling jokes, but, that can't sustain him through the entire speech.

But, before we proclaim Palin the new leader of the Republican party, let's see how well she does in the last two months of the campaign.  

by ProfessorReo 2008-09-03 10:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Exactly right.  It's a bit presumptuous to declare her future secure while she has a full legislative investigation into her misconduct, a litany of other scandals, AND a (Lord help me for typing this) National Enquirer team investigating a possible sex scandal right now.

Not to mention the most obvious fact: Sarah Palin never had Mitt's minions spending Mitt's millions running a full-court, intraparty attack on her.  How she'd fare under that scenario is unknown.

by Jay R 2008-09-03 10:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Though Palin went hard on elitism, I noticed she did not at all talk about any social conservatism.  No abortion.  No same-sex marriage.  Nothing.

It was all small town, working class stuff.  A full frontal assault on elitism.

If this is how she continues, she will be a big problem for us.  

We need to paint her as an extremist asap.

by bdog 2008-09-03 10:21PM | 0 recs
I am sorry Jerome

But Palin is no Hillary Clinton. All she did was proven she can handle her own. I found her speech bland and average. She was basically reading off a laundary list of talking points. Now that is not to say we should take her lightly, but I am sure she will not be some rock star.

by SocialDem 2008-09-03 10:28PM | 0 recs
Wife just had a good line

Might as well have Obama write her a speech and let her deliver it to a room of Democrats. The result would tell you exactly as much as you know tonight.

She can read well.

by Neef 2008-09-03 10:39PM | 0 recs
Sarah vs. Hillary

I was stunned at Jerome's claim that Sarah Palin's speech blew away Hillary Clinton.

I'm no Hillary fan, but Gov. Palin came across as a candidate for Student Council president. She had no gravitas at all. She was reading a speech scripted for her by McCain's Bush advisers.

McCain and Palin will be blown out in 2008, and I'd be surprised to see her back on the national stage again.

by JD Lasica 2008-09-03 10:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Wow, take it easy, Jerome. She was entertaining. Secondarily, but perhaps more memorably, she was surly.

And how is all of this going to look two weeks from now, after the pastor problems, the book-banning, the profoundly creepy vid of her addressing a Jesus Camp and declaring a pipeline to be "God's will," and the Iraq War a "task from God"?  And what happens when she has to take a real question from a real live reporter? And even an average level of scrutiny of her record (not to be confused with the pablum she was reading this evening)?

Sure, she might be around in 2012. Then again, she might have long since been dismissed as a delusional, not to mention dishonest, version of Jean Lundegaard.

A little perspective, maybe?

by watchgeek868 2008-09-03 10:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Yes, let's see how she does handling hungry reporters.

by indythink 2008-09-03 11:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight
I'm glad somebody seems to get it. Palin is dangerous. She has the right look, the right voice, and the right personal narrative to craft a political persona for herself which can resonate with a lot of people. The power of perception can be very powerful in politics. On top of that, she's demonstrating a keen instinct for the jugular and the ability to articulate Republican talking points. She's not Barack Obama or Bill Clinton, but she's one of the best public speakers the Republicans have had in years. With all that being said, however, Palin has several key weaknesses: (1) She does have a lack of experience. The Republicans are trying to spin that away by saying that she has more experience than Obama (she doesn't) and by claiming that only executive experience counts for anything (a standard which means that John McCain has an experience problem). It's very important that they don't win this battle. Palin is inexperienced and she needs to remain defined in that way through this election cycle. (2) She has given two major speeches since being named as the VP nominee... and each of those speeches has been riddled with blatant lies. Those lies (and any lies she chooses to tell in the future) need to be repeatedly emphasized so that her credibility can be (quite rightfully) destroyed. (3) She has several rather significant scandals hanging over her. Troopergate, her involvement with the AIP, the book-bannings, and the politically-motivated "loyalty" firings cannot be allowed to fall to the back-burner. (You'll notice that none of the pregnancy nonsense or "mommy shouldn't be allowed to go back to work" foolishness is mentioned above. That's because those are, frankly, red herrings that provide nothing but distractions from the more meaningful and substantive narrative.) The next week is going to be pretty crucial. If Palin can be defined in terms of her failures, her lies, and her scandals then she'll be effectively neutralized in this election cycle. (Although her ability to fire-up the Republican base is not irrelevant, particularly if it ends up allowing McCain to finally skew back towards more moderate positions.) But, yeah. I fully expect Palin to be a major mover-and-shaker in the Republican party in the future. And I agree that she's a viable consideration for a Presidential run in 2012. There are really only two scenarios which I can see preventing that: (1) One of her scandals breaks big. If Troopergate were to result in a criminal conviction or impeachment or if a video were to emerge of her explicitly endorsing the AIP's secessionist platform, that would be probably be sufficient to tarnish her political reputation in a way that would take years to recover from (if she ever could). (2) The McCain-Palin ticket is blown out by the Obama-Biden ticket in the kind of political impotence that destroys careers. We're talking the kind of political whipping that McGovern received in '72; Mondale and Ferrara received in '84; or Dole and Kemp received in '96. I don't consider either of these scenarios likely.
by Justin Alexander 2008-09-03 10:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Jerome, it's ridiculous to proclaim her the best VP pick available on the basis of one speech, which clearly was not written by her. If she manages to maintain the attack dog style effectively when she actually has to debate with people or answer searching questions without a teleprompter by her side then you might have more of a point, but right now it's far too early to say. I didn't even think the delivery was that good - she fluffed a few lines and her voice is thin and nasal. You seem to be right up there with the "wow, she can talk!" brigade of analysts.

It was a punchy speech from a partisan perspective, so she showed that she can trade blows. It will fire up the base, but then her candidacy has already fired up the base. Will it help with independents? Not so sure. I thought that she had to use this speech to show that's she's ready to be C-in-C. And I didn't see too much of that. She rather showed that she's ready to come out swinging like any other partisan politician. It would have been a fine speech from an already established figure. But she is not established, so I doubt it was the right speech for her; I don't think it will do much to allay the doubts of those who suspect she's unprepared. She also came across as pretty mean and nasty. Is that really the image they want to be projecting?

by al1 2008-09-03 11:22PM | 0 recs
Um... No.

You give yourself away, Jerome. We all know that you dislike Barack Obama (though you have been skirting around that fact lately). It's not a secret and you can stop pretending to be objective. That you honestly thought Sarah Palin out-attacks Hillary and (for heaven's sake) is even in the same league as Ronald Reagan just goes to show that you are still a sucker for a solid Obama slam.

The truth is, she bold-face lied (bridge to nowhere) and stayed relentlessly negative. Ronald Reagan was a lot of things, but negaive wasn't one of them. Hillary is a lot of things, but liar isn't one of them.

Palin's voice is jarring, her rhetoric is tired, and her role in this campaign is a transparent political maneuver. Do you really think that in a field as empty as the Republicans she will survive the primaries in 2012? Because, frankly, that's stupid.

by not Brit 2008-09-03 11:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I'm sorry guys.  I'm totally not seeing it.  I watched her speech a couple times, and her appeal is limited.  Very limited.  She rallies their base and is good at it, but she doesn't move the middle one bit.  At least not the Sarah Palin that appeared on stage tonight.  They gave her some solid lines, but there's nothing in there for independents other than, "those guys are horrible, bad people".  She's biting and sarcastic, and probably too much so for her major introduction to America.  And did anyone catch the picture of the burning forest fire that flashed in the background during her speech?  Weird.

Nate at 538 characterized her as being tapped into the zeitgeist of Ronald Reagan's era.  I think he's 100% right about that one.  This isn't a speech, or to be honest, a person, that addresses the needs of 2008.

The media wants to toast her tonight, and they might as well since they've spent the last few days digging into who she is, and that's only going to continue.  But she's got ethical issues back home that aren't going away, character issues that are just now being uncovered, and a very limited amount of time to learn everything that she needs to know to be of assistance with a national campaign.

I honestly wish her well, but this person is no Hillary Clinton.  Jerome is WAY off base with that.  The one thing that she did tonight was quiet all the speculation that she'll be dropped.  She won't be, win or lose, she's an asset to McCain.  But she's not anything close to what Jerome or some of the talking heads want to make her out to be.

by hello world 2008-09-03 11:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

During Palin's announcement speech on Friday, Frank Luntz focus grouped Palin's appearance with undecided female voters, half leaning Obama, half leaning McCain.  Her entire speech went over like a lead balloon... there was noo approval, and everyone asked "who is she?"  For her convention speech, according to politico, EMILYS List conducted a similar focus group which came to the same conclusion.

And despite what the pundits are saying I don't think she's really tapping into Middle America.  In my experience, politicians need to build a cursory level of trust before they're accepted in this region. And that trust needs to be built on the campaign trail, not in the convention hall. Palin would have been far more effective if she had invested several months on the trail before giving her speech to "seal the deal" with voters.  Instead, she left a lot of people scratching their heads.

With that said, I have a feeling she's going to run for president as a formidable opponent in 2012 if she can weather the scandals.  

by Homebrewer 2008-09-04 12:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Did I steal that line from Nate, or did Nate steal it from me?  Because I said the exact same thing above :)

by Steve M 2008-09-04 04:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I don't even think it is a Reagan era speach, I think it is a Pat Buchanan 1992 style speach.  This really is about an angry base that is unhappy with the head of the ticket.  

I think the meaner than she is, the more likely Obama is to win.   Remember that people hated Al Gore's sighs in 2000, people are not going to like a nasty Palin.  I think for a lot of independents it is going to be even harder on Palin to go nasty because she is a woman.

by gavoter 2008-09-04 05:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Jerome's comment is so over the top I could have sworn he was trying to be sarcastic.  Then I saw him  attempt to honestly deride Hillary as secondary to a politician who most likely will be under sanction at the very least come 2 days before the General Election and I realized he has absolutely lost it.

Some Democratic Party blog MyDD is. It isn't that I disagree with his opinion, which I do, it's that he is so clearly blinded by his delusions that I don't have to come back here to be stupified. I can just go to Powerline and get it there.

by fenwaysteve 2008-09-03 11:49PM | 0 recs
A saner version of Coulter

with good delivery skills, and I think many underestimate her effectiveness. We need to go after her on substance and veracity - non-existent for her, as with most GOP mouths.

by Sumo Vita 2008-09-04 12:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

You have to really hate Barack Obama to rank that speech above "competent", let alone "I HAVE JUST HEARD THE REINCARNATION OF CICERO".

by Jordache 2008-09-04 12:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight
I think she delivered the speech well, but it was a speech that was written for her to deliver.
What it failed to achieve, in my opinion, is pulling independents and undecideds over. It was a very partisan speech with those flashes of sarcasm that harkened back to the last two ugly general elections. What's more, once her far-right beliefs make their way into public awareness, she will only serve to bring the base of the GOP to the polling booths.
Gov. Palin is not the disaster some people thought she would be, but I don't see how she expands the ticket's appeal.
by GrahamCracker 2008-09-04 12:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

The next 60 days will indeed be telling.  I suspect Gov Palin will implode and remain a "hero" only to what's left of the rapid right wing of the Republican Party.  If that means she becomes the Republican nominee in `12 and beyond then that should extend that party's exile in the political wilderness for many years to come.

by bms 2008-09-04 02:01AM | 0 recs
I have a very low opinion of the average voter...

I think in general many, probably most American voters are stupid, selfish, and self-absorbed with little thought given to how their choice will affect anyone but I have no doubt any consideration that Palin is spectacularly unqualified will go by the wayside for them.

Having said that, I think you are overestimating the power of her speech and of her as a speaker. We'll see...

One thing is certain, if McCain-Palin is elected in November, my long time suspicion that voting is a waste of time will finally be confirmed.

by SaveElmer 2008-09-04 02:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

palin better than Clinton!?! WTF!!! Jerome, I know this is your blog and all and that you are one of the brightest minds in the DEM "net world, but I am starting think your hatred of Obama is starting to cloud your judgment. Just the other night you said you were "off to elect democratic senators" and made no mention of electing a democratic president! I mean your a guy well respected on the 'net and have much to offer in electing Dems across the board...but palin better than Hillary? Come on...

Lets see one has a lifetime of service to her country and community and is respected around the world. Her claim to statesmenship is too numerous to list. The other, has been introduced to the world stage as someone who eats moose burgers...and was on the PTO. PLEASE!!!

There was nothing in that speech that would wow independents. I watched it with my wife who has been undecided. Her response...that she was waaaaay too sarcastic. And my wife noticed that she didn't say anything about issues that would help her make a decision. Let me be frank...if my wife (who is like the average American when it comes to politics...pretty indifferent) noticed that...then so did a LOT of other independents.

Yea, she can read but most people are no red meat repubs....and those people were already in the bag, no matter what they were saying. But the rest of America....its a good bet a majority were not too impressed.

by helo 2008-09-04 03:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

palin better than Clinton!?! WTF!!! Jerome, I know this is your blog and all and that you are one of the brightest minds in the DEM "net world, but I am starting think your hatred of Obama is starting to cloud your judgment. Just the other night you said you were "off to elect democratic senators" and made no mention of electing a democratic president! I mean your a guy well respected on the 'net and have much to offer in electing Dems across the board...but palin better than Hillary? Come on...

Lets see one has a lifetime of service to her country and community and is respected around the world. Her claim to statesmenship is too numerous to list. The other, has been introduced to the world stage as someone who eats moose burgers...and was on the PTO. PLEASE!!!

There was nothing in that speech that would wow independents. I watched it with my wife who has been undecided. Her response...that she was waaaaay too sarcastic. And my wife noticed that she didn't say anything about issues that would help her make a decision. Let me be frank...if my wife (who is like the average American when it comes to politics...pretty indifferent) noticed that...then so did a LOT of other independents.

Yea, she can read but most people are no red meat repubs....and those people were already in the bag, no matter what they were saying. But the rest of America....its a good bet a majority were not too impressed.

by helo 2008-09-04 03:02AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight
Since the speech was boring, as I watched C-span, I was looking at the crowd. The women were very excited (for obvious reasons), the men, for the most part towards the end of the speech, looked bored.
I predict McCain will get an average bounce and a lot of donations.
Will McCain be jealous of Palin getting all the attention and reel her in, or will his strategists send her out across the country to give her convention speech for the next two months?
I look forward to the VP debate.
by skohayes 2008-09-04 03:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I think this speech will be so loved by the MSM that Palin will go into the VP debate as the overwhelming favorite to crush Joe Biden.  Good.  Let everyone think Palin is the 2nd coming of Reagan.  Build up expectations for her.

I want people thinking that Joe Biden is some absolute nobody POS when they step on the stage to debate and actually discuss real issues.

by Will Graham 2008-09-04 03:45AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Your standard of good and bad speeches is sorely lacking.  You compare that speech to Obama's acceptance and 2004 speeches... quality of speech and oration is not in doubt, OBAMA blows her out of the water.

Now if you are talking about her ability to whip up the GOP base, THAT I'll grant you.   She is Bush with Breasts.

by yitbos96bb 2008-09-04 03:58AM | 0 recs
We have met a dangerous siren of the right

A woman who can relate very well to the average American, talk plainly about their concerns - all the while ripping their heart out.

"Drill baby drill" was the biggest applause moment of the night - doesn't that say everything about the Republican party?

by activatedbybush 2008-09-04 04:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

 I think the shark jumped Jerome.

by QTG 2008-09-04 04:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

OK, am I the only one who feels that what we saw was just putting her journalistic skills into play??  So she can read a script, who cares!!!  There was not a word in there that was sincere.  I've never heard so many out right lies in one speech, and the information that was left out was incredible.

I nearly choked when she said that being a mayor gave her reponsibility.  You mean the responsibility to run your town into the ground?  The responsibility that was almost taken away from you?  The responsibility that was handed over to a supervisor???  PLEASE!

The press need to stay on top of her, not about her family, but about HER!  About the huge wholes in her record and the incredibly stupid things she's done, like distribute a surplas and borrow for projects.  The woman doesn't have a clue!

by Pa Woman 2008-09-04 04:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Her speech and her message may or may not win voters.  McCain's ticket may or may not win the election.  This country may continue embracing the nasty self-indulgent stuff the GOP puts out, at least for a while.  We are not going to change the Republican party, and we must not change our own to mimic them.

What will change, at some point, hopefully now, because it has to, is the nature of this country.  I feel like we are still suffering from the cold war perception of the Democratic party as weak; it's kind of a knee-jerk thing, that we are not bullies enough.  That is only going to change when the need for specific solutions to our problems inspires the perceived need for a different style of leadership.

Hopefully that's now.  If not, nothing we do and noone we run short of GOP lite maybe, will win this, and it is not worth winning under those conditions.

by mady 2008-09-04 05:31AM | 0 recs
GOP 2012 primary started last night

Did anyone else take away the sense that Mitt and Huck were quietly laying down the cases for themselves for 2012?

Huckabee for sure is starting his 2012 pitch.  Consider his speech, where he lays out more of his own story than McCain's story.  Last I checked, that's a big no-no if you whole-heartedly are backing the candidate.  I don't recall Clinton getting up there and talking about her time in Arkansas, right?

Mitt sure seems of the same mind, too.

And you have to wonder, given the precedent from 1976, how many GOPers can resist assigning a parallel between themselves and Reagan?

by jcjcjc 2008-09-04 05:47AM | 0 recs
Each Election Cycle Is Different

Palin gives a pretty good speech and it is clear the Repubs know the only way they can win is through identity and wedge politics so they are going to play it to the hilt.   Is that a winning message in 2008?

In some elections during good times you have trivial pursuit of the Presidency such as in 1988 and 2000 where personality matters most.  In other years, fear is a driving factor such as 2004.  

And in some years issues and what you plan to do as President take center stage such as 1980 and 1992.  My takeaway from this year is that 2008 is a lot closer to 1980 and 1992 where people are far more interested in issues than identity politics.  

People are hurting economically, they are pissed about Iraq and they are sick of Bush.  In short they want something different and I am not sure how the speeches last night get them there.  There was no mention of the economy, discussion about staying in Iraq and general mockery of Obama despite the fact the guy showed incredible competence and tenacity in defeating the Clinton machine.

It played in the hall and fired up the base but did it connect with general voters?  The polls will tell us shortly.

The Repubs will try to knock us off our game but we need to stay focused.  In 1992, "it was the economy, stupid."  Despite the efforts of the Rs to make America think we are in the last year of the Gore Presidency, people know that Bush is President.  The Dems need to keep hammering McCain=Bush.  As long as we do that we will win in Nov.

by jmnyc 2008-09-04 05:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Each Election Cycle Is Different

I agree completely.  Palin is just another chapter in the endless attempt to distract the voters, which is the McCain campaign.  When it comes down to it, most undecided voters I talk to... and I knock on over 50 doors every weekend, talk about their job security, their health care coverage, rising costs of living and their fatigue with the wars.  At times they may doubt Obama's ability to improve their situation, sure, but FFS the McCain campaign isn't even addressing their concerns.  In the end, I think, they'll only see one choice.

by NMMatt 2008-09-04 06:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

We are not electing someone who looks good on TV.
We're electing someone who can bring about change.

Palin TOOK THE MONEY from the bridge to nowhere. Then she stood up and told you in a slick made for TV voice that she DID NOT.

What is wrong with you , Jerome?

by Trey Rentz 2008-09-04 05:54AM | 0 recs

Jerome is not making a case for Palin, simply presenting the picture of who she is and what she appeals to.  

I don't think this will change unless the country has changed.  I think it has.  We'll see.

by mady 2008-09-04 06:41AM | 0 recs

People who love Bush love her.  People who were already going to vote for McCain love her.  There was very, very little moderate/ independent appeal in a sarcastic, nasty speech like that. Moderates and independents who look at her actual record will find her even less appealing.

by deepee 2008-09-04 06:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Really Jerome?

This is a woman who is a complete culture war reactionary - from abortion to creationism.  Her views are just not that popular, despite the interesting package.  She's essentially a more down to earth and female Pat Buchannan.

So she gives a nice nasty speech in her quirky Fargo accent.  That's about the extent of her appeal.

by NMMatt 2008-09-04 06:43AM | 0 recs

palin's speech and the crowd reaction was like listening to someone give a speech for high school or maybe even Jr. high school class president.

It was not even on the same level as Hillary Clinton.

Sorry Jerome but you are wrong on this one!

by kevin22262 2008-09-04 07:23AM | 0 recs
It's called an aircard

PCI or PCMCIA.  If you're going to go off live-blogging with any seriousness you should spring for the $60/month and get one.

by chrisblask 2008-09-04 07:46AM | 0 recs
Major Marketing of Sarah!

Can't believe all the males falling over themselves to heap praise on this conservative, anti choice, ultra religious, women that is for creationism in schools, abstinance only (duh-that worked well?.)
She wants to remove (ban) books from the library and threatens to fire the librarian.
She brags about her executive ability and that she will help McCain-really humble isn't she?
The town of Wasilla had no debt when she became Mayor.  She ran on giving them infrastructure like Sewers!  Now the town is 22million in debt, and they have a expensive sports complex that does not pay its way and guess what-NO Sewers!
She is very vindictive, very refengeful, uses her seat of power and weilds it against anyone that disagrees with her.  She has loyal followers because if they don't agree they will find themselves without a job.  A government job in Alaska is priceless.
She used her previous training for beauty contests for that speech last night.  Most women can see right through most of it.  Lots of untruths about Obama, but who cares-shes a babe.

Lets hope McCain does not get a twisted neck while he keeps checking out his "new partner," he showed his first decision with purely poor judgement!  She she "gives a good speech."  Now where have I heard that before?

Every story has a beginning, a middle and a end, we are only to the Intro with Palin.  Still the stars in the eyes phase...

Come on, don't let this extreme fundamentalist women fool you, she has a agenda and its the Supreme Court.  Wake up fools!
(I stole that last line from Kucinich)

PS, those 99% white folks at that R Convention do not look happy, they show their contempt openly for anyone that does not agree with them.  Are they desparate or what?

They made their bed, now they can sleep in it=
McCains desparate choice!

by lja 2008-09-04 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

I have to agree with Jerome - partly.

I am watching Palin's speech on the internet. I'm only about 15 minutes into it and I can see that she will really appeal to small town America and to many in the working class. She is speaking the language of small town America and doing it very well.

She's good.

She's no Hillary Clinton. And I don't agree with her positions. I think she was a purely political choice and a good one at that. She will only help McCain. The scandals don't matter. When was the last time Republicans cared about their own scandals?

She is a beauty pick, just like Dan Quayle was. But she's no Dan Quayle, my friends. She's smart, and funny and will have broad appeal. And remember, Dan Quayle was Dan Quayle and even he managed to get elected VP.

by carrieboberry 2008-09-04 08:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Oh, and with the hair up, she's hot. I'm sorry, but she really is.

by carrieboberry 2008-09-04 08:11AM | 0 recs
Repubs will have to reinvent themselves in 2012

i just have one thing to say: this is not 2004.  we must stop living in the reality that was the last election cycle.  social conservatives do not define America anymore, especially at a time when there are real "bread and butter" issues overwhelming the hot button issues.  what everyone should take away from this convention -- which i believe will go down as an abysmal failure -- is how it is reinforcing all the assertions made by the Democratic convention last week.  first and foremost, that Republicans and McCain are out of touch.  heard much about the economy?  heard anything about Afghanistan?  how about the deficit?  health care anyone?  heard any new ideas for the future, or new ideas how to fix our problems?

unless we suddenly vault back into peace and prosperity in 4 years, what the Republicans will go with next time is someone like Huckabee, who has that Arkansas folksy likeability combined with a natural populist appeal and an outsider image.  an angry, Buchanan style social conservative like Palin is always going to have much more limited appeal, no matter how pretty the package or sweet the lies.  remember, GWB clawed his way to office by offering himself as a "compassionate," "uniter not a divider" Republican palatable to moderates and that still didn't get him over 50%.  his reelection had more to do with lingering fear of terrorism.  hard core social conservatives alone do not have enough numbers to win in normal circumstances, and their numbers are shrinking, not expanding.  go ask everyone you know under 30 what worries them more: gun control, abortion, gay marriage, taxes... or jobs, health care, the environment, housing market.  the culture wars are the previous generation's obsession, that's why they are becoming a losing strategy, and the Republicans of the future will have to learn how to placate their rabid Dobsonites at the same time they offer solutions to problems that appeal to moderates beyond just railing about taxes and calling the opposition names.  i simply don't see Palin as being a part of that kind of strategy because of her attachments to the current manifestation of the Republican party.

by dasmeer 2008-09-04 08:52AM | 0 recs
Shrill and Negative

It certainly fired up the base but probably lost independents. Sarah Palin is no Hillary Clinton.

by NJDEM1 2008-09-04 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Tonight

Hey Jerome-
Not getting enough sleep?

You seem a bit cloudy on this review of Palin.
Not your usual critical self?

I suspect you are taking the position on purpose as a "wedgie."

Nice try-I see through it.  

by lja 2008-09-04 09:50AM | 0 recs
Uh uh

Jerome -- Tin ear, speaking as a white working class guy. She's more a hit with the guys than the gals, so that's one off right there, but a lot of guys will feel emasculated as this develops. The women in my family see her game viscerally and are getting a pretty good hate on. She is a smart cookie, no question there, but she missed her moment -- her team is on the decline. I agree that she is stealing the show and making this election about her, but that is not good for McCain.

If the Republicans lose the election, she will be considered as a good part of the reason. If she and hers take over the party, game on -- New Deal territory and out in the wilderness for a generation.

by MikeB 2008-09-04 10:03AM | 0 recs


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