Tracking Poll Update: A 6-8 Point Dem ID Edge
by Jonathan Singer, Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 09:46:17 AM EDT
Here are today's numbers:
The Battleground tracker (.pdf), which covers the last three days but also last Wednesday and Thursday, shows John McCain leading 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, while a Washington Post-ABC News survey of likely voters (which I will discuss a little more in a moment) gives Barack Obama a 9-point lead, 52 percent to 43 percent. An Ipsos (.pdf) poll of registered voters for McClatchy shows Obama leading by a narrower 44 percent to 43 percent margin. Update [2008-9-24 14:36:58 by Jonathan Singer]: A Fox News poll puts Obama up 45 percent to 39 percent among registered voters.
The McCain campaign did not like the results of the WaPo-ABC poll, and so they sent out their pollster to do some push back by way of conference call. But as Marc Ambinder notes, the spin from the McCain campaign was not by any means overwhelming.
McInturff told reporters this morning that he considered the poll problematic because party identification trends were not factored in the results, undecided voters were pushed to choose a candidate, and the 16 point party identification gap was much too big. McInturff said that McCain will win of the party ID gap is reduced to four points or so -- today, he estimates that Republicans are down six to eight points.
But so does ABC News. Their measure of unleaned -- as in -- non-pushed -- party identification among their likely voter sample was 37% for Democrats and 30% for Republicans -- a spread of seven points.
It's worth underscoring a point from the quoted section above: McCain's pollster believes that the current partisan identification spread within the electorate is 6 to 8 points in favor of the Democrats. This means that the WaPo-ABC survey the McCain campaign is working so hard to deny is right in the zone of where the campaign sees the race currently sitting, in terms of partisan breakdown of the electorate, and the R2K polling for Daily Kos is not very far outside of the range, either, with the Democrats holding a 9-point edge in self-identification. Gallup, which now gives the Democrats a 10-point edge (up from just 5 points in the immediate aftermath of the Republican National Convention), might be a tad on the high end at this point, at least if McInturff's view of the race holds true.