Tracking Poll Update: The Race Settles
by Jonathan Singer, Tue Sep 23, 2008 at 12:39:24 PM EDT
Here are today's numbers:
The Battleground tracker (.pdf), which is not yet daily (but will be included in the daily average above when it is, so that the average accounts for the same window of time rather than a period of three days for four polls and a period of about a week for the fifth), shows John McCain leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 46 percent, and a CNN poll of likely voters that was in the field over the weekend gives Obama a 4 point lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.
Looking at an average of the four daily tracking polls, Obama's lead is the same as it was two days ago and four days ago, with Obama's numbers fluctuating between 46.75 and 48.25 over the last week and McCain's numbers fluctuating between 44.00 and 45.25 over the last week. In short, the race appears to have settled over the course of the last week after a period of a lot of movement in the preceding month.