14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast - How many after November?

From the diaries - Todd

The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.
We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!

Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.

Well now 14 members of that most endangered of species the Northeast House Republican. And can you believe 5 open races in more or less Democrat friendly districts - WOW!

And so on with the show:
CT-04 - D+5 - Shays
It is appropriate that the first race we look at is one of the most competitive, CT-04, pitting Chris Shays against our guy Jim Himes. This one will be a barnburner which makes it curious that I can't find any polling of the district. Located in the Southwest part of the state it overlaps the New York media market and many people who live in the 4th commute to NYC for work.
As the only GOP survivor in New England Shays seems to be popular but as the Iraq war becomes increasingly unpopular Shays' fervent support for the war and the President himself makes this one race to watch. Both candidates are cashed up and either could win.
CT-04 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

DE-AL - D+7 - Castle
GOP incumbent Mike Castle is considered safe and I see no reason to not beileve that. Whilst Dem Karen Hartley-Nagle will run a solid campaign this district is unlikely to flip this time around. Of more interest to me is whether Castle will switch parties after the election or retire in 2010 (He had a stroke in 2006). Or if Lt Gov John Carney or Attorney General Beau Biden have a crack Castle may be vulnerable if he runs again in 2010.
DE-AL is another of the 8 districts that Kerry carried in 2004 occupied by a House Republican and in fact this is the district with the highest Kerry vote - 57% - occupied by a Republican.

NJ-02 - D+4.0 - LoBiondo
LoBiondo doged a bullet when Democratic State Senator Jeff Van Drew opted not to run against him in this district that Bush won by less than 1% and that is occupied by 2 Democratic State Senators.
Our candidate David Kurkowski will have a real slog to get this race on the radar with the open races in the 3rd and 7th. Look for Van Drew to run and win in 2010.

NJ-03 - D+3.3 - OPEN
The first of our open races this one sees Democratic State Senator John Adler running against Chris Myers. Bush won this district 51-49 and Adler has a massive COH advantage - 1.46M to 155K. Polling indicates a tight race but I expect Adler to win comfortably as he is well known through the district and genuinely popular.

NJ-04 - R+0.9 - Smith
This central Jersey district was won by bush in 2004 56 to 44 but was won by Gore in 2000 50 to 46. With a plethora of other competitive races around this one has not been on the radar and probably won't be. Josh Zeitz is to be applauded for having a go but 2008 probably won't be his year. 2010 maybe?

NJ-05 - R+4 - Garrett
A district that shouldn't be on the radar is so largely because our guy Dennis Shulman is a blind rabbi who has been getting a lot of media attention. Won by Bush in 2004 57-43 this is one of two districts in New Jersey that are considered generically safe for Repubs. If Shulman can pull it off then expect a lot of house districts to be picked up by us on election day. Shulman is down 3 to 1 in COH which is ok but he really needs to step up the fundraising.

NJ-07 - R+1 - OPEN
Another open race this one pits 2006 candidate Democrat Linda Stender against State Senator Leonard Lance. Michael Hsing, a conservative republican is also running as an independent which will take votes from Lance. Both camps have released polls that show their candidate is winning. Despite the fact that Bush won this district 53-47 in 2004 I expect Stender to win at her second time at bat as she only lost by about 1000 votes in 2006. Stender has a massive COH advantage - 1.2M-88K btw and that can only help!

NJ-11 - R+6 - Frelinghuysen
This district that Bush won 58-42 in 2004 is the safest GOP in New Jersey and unlikely to flip. Our guy, 2006 candidate Tom Wyka, is putting in a valiant effort but will most likely fall short. This district is a rarity in the Northeast, a safe GOP district.

NY-03 - D+2.1 - King
This Long Island based district is not on the radar for 2008. Democrat Graham Long hasn't set the world on fire and won't with all of the oxygen being sucked up by the 13th. This race may have been competitive if 2006 candidate Dave Mejias had run again be he is running for the State Senate instead :( Look for Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi or Mejias to run in 2010. King has said that he will running in the gubernatorial race in 2010 so we should pick this one up then.

NY-13 - D+1 - OPEN
No race in the country has been more of a soap opera than NY-13. I will spare you the details and say simply this. Democratic candidate Michael McMahon will win and win big over a divided dispirited Republican party and their 3rd tier candidate. McMahon is even endorsed by GOP powerbroker Guy Molinari. And he lives on Staten Island a vital prerequisite in this district unlike his republican opponent. Chalk this one up as a win for team blue.

NY-23 - R+0.2 - McHugh
John McHugh is a safe bet for re-election here over a low profile candidate, Mile Oot. The attenton in upstate New York will all be focused on the 25th, 26th and 29th. Sheesh even the unions endorse McHugh who seems genuinely popular. He was rumoured to be retiring in 2008 and may do so in 2010. Either way expect a competitive race here in 2010 not 2008.

NY-25 - D+3 - OPEN
Democrat Dan Maffei never stopped running since 2006 and is considered very likely to win this open seat over Republican Dale Sweetland. He has about $1M COH and of course upstate New York is rapidly bluing. The one poll I have seen had Maffei only a point in front but that was back in April. I think that the NRCC has given up here and with good reason, Dan's gonna win. NY-25 is one of 8 districts carried by Kerry in 2004 occupied by a House Republican.  

NY-26 - R+3 - OPEN
There was a huge shock here when Democrat Kryzan won a bloody primary over DCCC preferred Jon Powers. Nonetheless Kryzan came out reasonably clean and may well pull it off in a district where Bush won 55-43 in 2004. Kryzan needs to step up her fundraising a lot but again the DCCC has weighed with advertising expenditure. When we see some polling we will get a better sense of how this one is playing but this district is still very much in play as Gopper Chris Lee hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Watch this space.

NY-29 - R+5 - Kuhl
Democratic 2006 candidate Eric Massa is back for a rematch in this upstate district that is the most GOP friendly district in New York. Bush won 56-42 in 2004. Don't discount Massa though as incumbent Randy "shotgun" Kuhl is certainly vulnerable (and repellant). Haven't seen any public polling here but the candidates are basically at parity in terms of COH and the DCCC is stumping up for advertising big time. Expect a close race.

So whilst the Northeast won't provide much excitement at the Presidential level this year the House races (and Senate BTW) will be all the fun of the fair. I think that we will probably win between 4 and 7 of these races further decimating an already shredded GOP. The Northeast is well on the way to becoming a one party region and this year will see further shifts in that direction.

Tags: 2008, CT-04, DE-AL, Elections, House, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-04, NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-03, NY-13, NY-23, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29 (all tags)



The Northeast

Can't wait to see this list get halved on election night!

by BENAWU 2008-09-20 04:12PM | 0 recs
ny-13 is NOT a soap opera.

  it's an episode of law and order in the making :P.

by Doug Tuttle 2008-09-20 05:13PM | 0 recs
the Northeast - How many after November?

LOL aint that the truth.

by BENAWU 2008-09-20 05:31PM | 0 recs
How'd you get that definition of the Northeast?

How'd you include Delaware but not Pennsylvania or Maryland?  That's just odd, eh?

by umcpgreg 2008-09-20 06:01PM | 0 recs

I used the same regional definition as the US census.

by BENAWU 2008-09-20 06:06PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast - How many

Bear in mind that in gerrymandering safe Democratic districts with strong urban cores of democrats, Republicans often receive stronger districts as well.  This is likely to be an election year when a lot of dems outperform previous cycles, but in some cases we'll lose districts because they're overwhelmingly rural and republican, while Democrats in neighboring districts enjoy easy races because the line was drawn to make them both safe seats.  

In my district, for years we suffered with Republican enabler Connie Morella, largely because Al Wynn in the next district East insisted on having his district cover a big chunk of liberal southeast Montgomery County, so he could post 70-30 wins in the general without doing much beyond a district wide postcard mailer 6 weeks out.  When he finally relented and gave up a few democratic zipcodes in Montgomery county, Chris Van Hollen was able to finally beat Morella who had defeated two great Democrats in Ralph Neas and Terry Lierman in the two previous elections.  

by Headlight 2008-09-20 06:39PM | 0 recs
Re: In New England

Yep agreed allthough the NY maps were drawn to protect incumbents.

by BENAWU 2008-09-20 10:51PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 GOP House Reps in the Northeast -8

Great post. Do all the regions please!

I like our chances in 5 of those races, and think we've an outside shot at the 26th and 29th in NY. Especially the 26th, Kryzan seems to not need the money to win big.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-09-20 07:00PM | 0 recs
Re: 14 GOP House

Will try to do the others but flying to the USA next weekend to volunteer in IL-10!

by BENAWU 2008-09-20 10:50PM | 0 recs
Massachusetts already cleaned house

No Republicans in our Congressional delegation for years!

by TrueBlueMajority 2008-09-20 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Massachusetts already cleaned house

Now that's just bragging. :)

by BENAWU 2008-09-20 10:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Bragging?
We say in Texas,
"It ain't bragging if it's true!"
by Woody 2008-09-21 08:23AM | 0 recs
And yet despite all this

Susan Collins is going to coast easily to another term. Unconscionable.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-09-20 11:21PM | 0 recs
Re: And yet despite all this

One thing that I really would like for Obama to do when elected is offer entrenched Republicans, in what should be Democratic areas, plump positions. I don't think Susan Collins is a smart enough person for an Obama Administration, but Olympia Snowe definitely is. Choose her to head, I dunno, the EPA or Commerce or whatever she'd take.

It'd earn lots of brownie points for Obama among the commentariat, add a seat to help us get a Democratic Senate (though, I don't know Maine's law regarding appointing replacements. ME's gov is a Dem, though), and be a genuine first step at center left bipartisan government.

by Zephyr 2008-09-21 02:00AM | 0 recs
Re: Good idea, work on it

I think we could pry loose a couple of Repubs from the Senate. First, get harry Reid to sound them about about switching parties. If no go there, then a nice appointment to the Cabinet or the Court.

Olympia Snowe is Target A. I'd say Arlen Specter of PA is Target B. His term is up in 2010, and he is 78 years old, with serious health issues, so he may not run again. But why wait for 2010? He'd love to sit on the Supreme Court for a couple of years, and Obama could get nice play for the bipartisan appointment. Then when Specter resigned for health reasons, Obama would name his replacement as well. Chuck Grassley of IA is Target C, also a high-ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, probably temptable with a Court seat. Harder to find targets after these, isn't it? The others will either be heading for defeat like Voinovich in Ohio (well, OK, I said why wait, so maybe he's Target D), or too old to bother (Lugar in IN), recently re-elected (probably Susan Collins ME and possibly Norm Coleman MN and Gordon Smith in Oregon), or impossibly reichty wingnuttery (most of the others). But Kit Bond of MO or Mel Hernandez of FL or another might want to jump before being crushed in 2010.

Kay Bailey Hutchison is talking about running for Gov of Texas, apparently bored being in the Senate minority, maybe not entirely comfortable among the wingnuts (she's quietly pro-choice). Maybe she is just running from her current job. Let's see if she'd take Secty of Transportation (she's pro-Amtrak, another reason to be uncomfortable among the remaining nuts in the Repub Party). Hutchison's vacancy would trigger a special election. Maybe Rick Noriega could get serious money for a second race in April with help from a President Obama.

by Woody 2008-09-21 09:02AM | 0 recs
Chuck Grassley is not qualified

to sit on the Court. He doesn't know jack about constitutional issues.

by molly bloom 2008-09-21 10:25AM | 0 recs
Re: 14 GOP House Rep

I don't think it would be a good idea to put more Republicans on the Supreme Court regardless of the gains in the legislative branch.  The Court is already a little scewed against us in my opinion and I don't want it to emain that way.  They happen to live through Obama's first term, something happens, a Repub wins the White House some how and we lose the court for an entire generation.  It would be over.  The Supreme Court is perhaps the biggest reason we must win the White House, lets not throw that away.

by goodleh 2008-09-21 12:59PM | 0 recs


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