Indiana Is Looking Very Swingy

Barack Obama has been campaigning and organizing in Indiana, as well as investing in advertising in the state even as John McCain has decided against going on air, so perhaps it shouldn't come as much of a surprise that the state is looking more and more like a swing state as we get closer to election day. Take a look at the latest numbers from the land of the Hoosiers:

ObamaMcCain
Rasmusseen Reports4749
Big Ten4347
CNN4551
Selzer4744
ARG4447
Average45.247.6

The Obama campaign still has work to do to get closer to the 48-49 percent range in which victory is more clearly visible on the horizon -- where they don't have to rely on the support of the vast majority of the undecided voters, which they are highly unlikely to get -- but for now they cannot be too unhappy with the state of the race in Indiana, which John Kerry lost by more than 20 points just four years ago. As we saw during the Indiana primary back in May, Obama has a strong organization in the state, which is certainly helped by the fact that Illinois, and Chicago in particular, are very close by, so if they can get close to the cusp of majority support in Indiana they just might be able to pull of a real shocker.

Tags: IN-Pres, Indiana, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

5 Comments

Re: Indiana Is Looking Very Swingy

I like the Selzer poll. Ann Selzer's the best, Although she said there are a lot of shifty dynamics, Obama's chances in the state are solid.

She polls for the DM Register in Iowa and was one of the few (if not the only) pollsters to accurately predict the Iowa Caucus results.

by rapcetera 2008-09-19 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Indiana Is Looking Very Swingy

Is Indiana Obama's Minnesota?

Seriously the neglect we are getting from the Obama team is beginning to scare me.

by MNPundit 2008-09-19 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Indiana Is Looking Very Swingy

Looking at pollster, it seems to me that all the scary recent polling out of MN comes from the timeframe that was the height of McCain's bounce. And still shows Obama with a lead, just a shrinking one.

If new polling from here on out still shows it close now that McCain's bounce has reversed, then I'll start worrying.

(Not that I have anything to do with MN, I'm just your standard poll junkie)

by sab39 2008-09-19 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Indiana Is Looking Very Swingy

I think that all of those Democratic activists who agonized over the Obama-Clinton contested Indiana primary this past spring may want to consider that the formerly sleepy (Democratic-wise) state may have come to life.  

Amazing what a contested election with some life, vitality, advertising and political personalities does to a state.  

It's a 50 state strategy, just not how they thought...

by IrishAlum 2008-09-19 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Indiana Is Looking Very Swingy


I think Indiana did an overshoot for Republicans in '04 by maybe 2-3%.   So it probably will outperform the national trend of 4% Democratic shift since then due to deaths of the elderly and new GenY voters.

I'll be surprised if Obama gets 48%, but 45-46% seems reasonable to me and suggests the state will be a de facto swing state in 2012.

It's the last true national Republican foothold in the North, i.e. north of the Ohio and Rappahannock- an outlier, a cultural anomaly.

I think Arizona will also surprise and Democrats will get to 48-49% there this election.

by killjoy 2008-09-20 07:19AM | 0 recs

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