Big Ten Poll
by Jerome Armstrong, Thu Sep 18, 2008 at 11:45:51 AM EDT
This looks like it'll be a good set of polls worth diving into, with plenty of research and details, but it also looks like its not going to tell us anything other than the race is very close in the midwest.
The top line looks like:
Iowa Minn. Wisc. Mich. Ohio Ind. Penn. Illinois Obama 45 47 45 48 46 43 45 53 McCain 45 45 44 44 45 47 45 37Charles Franklin has some top-line analysis on the Big Ten Poll website. The MOE is +/- 4% and was taken Sept 14-17, and "included a nationally representative sample of 1,114 respondents, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a 1-point margin over McCain." So close, except for Illinois. The other not as close states are Indiana (McCain) and Michigan (Obama), the states of Minnesota and Wisconsin seem to be the ones where McCain-Palin have gained the most traction since the conventions. This Iowa finding is contrary to a lot of other polls out there, and the Pennsylvania poll shows a tie as well.