Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes First Gallup Lead in 11 Days

Here are today's numbers:

ObamaMcCain
Diageo/Hotline4542
Gallup4745
Rasmussen Reports4748
Research 2000/dKos4844
Average:46.7544.75

There hasn't been a whole lot of movement overall in the polls -- the R2K and Rassmussen polls look exactly the same today as they did yesterday, and the Hotline poll moving just a point -- though Gallup shows Barack Obama leading (albeit within the margin of error) for the first time in 11 days. In short, this remains a close race, with the apparent national lead John McCain appeared to hold in the few days following the Republican National Convention completely evaporating.

Tags: Tracking Poll Update, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

21 Comments

Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes First Gallup

a 3 point swing in a 5 day tracking poll could be pretty significant...

Keep fighting, stay on message, and don't get complacent!  

by neko608 2008-09-17 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes First Gallup

Obama picked up 1, but McSame lost 2. That's pretty significant tanking in McSame report, especially since he'd been holding stead at 47. Assuming he was 47 each of the two days previously, that means he could be down at 40 or 41 in the last sample.

Your word of caution, though, is well taken. These people were stupid enough to flock to McSame after the RNC because of Palin. They may be abandoning him now, but IMO, they won't hesitate to return if given an excuse.

by iohs2008 2008-09-17 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes First Gallup

Gallup Daily Tracking Poll is a 3 day rolling average, not a 5 day rolling average.

The 3 point swing is definitely significant, but not as significant if it were in a 5 day rolling average poll.

I'm hoping that Obama can get up to a 4-5 point spread by the weekend on the GDTP.

by Obamaphile 2008-09-17 03:57PM | 0 recs
The O campaign

needs to smack John McCain upside the head - HARD.

Mr. Deregulation - from the S&L mess right up through Phil Gramm's ramming through of the investment bank rules loosening - now wants to claim he's John Q. Oversight McRegulate?

Give.  Me. a. Break.

You want to change your position?  Fine - but let's not pretend that for 26 years you were on the damn opposite side of this equation.

Obama needs to quit saying he "doesn't fault John McCain" -- because John McCain and Republicans like him are PRECISELY at fault.  These are exactly the jackals who insisted that unfettered market would correct itself.

Well, it didn't.  It didn't and now we're dumping trillions into nationalizing the companies that the Grammies insisted should be allowed to police themselves.

Nail to that liar's forehead -- this is YOUR mess, John.  You helped create it.

by zonk 2008-09-17 10:48AM | 0 recs
Obama Takes First Gallup Lead in 11 Days

The trouble in investment banks and AIG is a clear opening for any Democrat, let's see how Obama takes advantage of it. I think his speech yesterday is more on point in the states that are at stake now than today's two minute ad.

by souvarine 2008-09-17 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update

Palin is now a net negative and the msm are sick of McCain's lies. They feel used by a guy who they thought actually had some integrity.  Just like when this sort of thing happens in real life, folks don't recover trust very quickly.

by politicsmatters 2008-09-17 11:15AM | 0 recs
Polls

These day to day national polls are virtually meaningless.  We just need to work hard and not give up working hard until election day.

The significant and -- for right now -- scary polls are the state by state polls.  We have to battle hard in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.  All are currently threatened and losing even one of those could be fatal.

This election, like 1980, will come down to the debates.  The candidate that comports himself the best in the debates will pick up the independents and win this thing.

Also, bear in mind that this year could very likely be another 2000 in which the electoral vote winner (and therefore the winner) isn't the total national popular vote winner (another reason why we have to stop living and dying by these national polls, when they are this close they truly indicate nothing).

by OurYear2008 2008-09-17 11:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Polls

National numbers are aggregates of state numbers, so if the national numbers move, that movement has to be reflected somewhere in the state numbers.  The state polls haven't caught up to the national trackers yet.  (The same was true a few weeks ago, when the trackers nosed down before the states did.)

by KTinOhio 2008-09-17 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Polls

Sorry but state numbers are NOT aggregates of state numbers.  The polling company determines a demographic cross-section set (which is why all the nonsense about cell phones that people start each campaign is just silly) and then assembles a group to match that set and reports the numbers.  The group can even be all in one state.

A national poll moving,  particularly as small as they move lately has virtually no meaning as to what is occuring state by state.  For example, Obama's increase could all come from California and New York.  But, so what, he'll carry those states anyway.

The state polling "lags" only because no one is taking  them every day.  Look, I would rather have Obama lead in these daily tracking polls than not, if for no other reason than the effect it has on the media and people.  But, its the state by state polling that matters, and I want everyone on their game and realizing that all the movement lately state by state had been very helpful to McCain.  This must be reversed.  That's all I am saying.

Oh, and one more thing.  Let's not forget about the Bradley effect (some call it the Wilder effect, for more info on it read here:  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_eff ect).  If there is a Bradley effect of only a few points in Michigan and Pennsylvania, it could spell disaster.  Okay, I'm done worrying out loud... for at least a couple of minutes.

by OurYear2008 2008-09-17 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Polls

Your point about national polls being far less significant than state polls is correct, but if the national polls keep moving Obama's way, the logical deduction is that the state polls will follow.

McCain jumped way up in the national polls while still lagging in the state polls and the EV map trackers at the beginning of last week.  As the week moved on, McCain's national polling leads started to show up in the EV map trackers.

If Obama keeps it up with the national daily tracking polls for several more days, you can count on seeing him start to regain ground on the state polls and the EV map trackers by the start of next week.

by Obamaphile 2008-09-17 04:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Polls

Technically speaking, you're correct; individual states aren't considered when drawing the sample.  But I was talking about the population which the sample is intended to represent, and I stand by my statement.  If the real national numbers - which are estimated imperfectly - are moving, there has to be a corresponding movement somewhere in the state numbers.

by KTinOhio 2008-09-17 09:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Polls

Unfortunately (though probably fortunately for us), by "comports himself the best in the debates," means "whomever the media deems as having the best style and tone."

by ProgressiveDL 2008-09-17 11:54AM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes First Gallup

And it turns out that McCain's post-convention bounce was...just a bounce.  As we all knew it would be.

by Skaje 2008-09-17 11:33AM | 0 recs
But that didn't stop the deadenders

Man, they couldn't wait to write Obama's political obituary over a meager 5 point bounce.

by iohs2008 2008-09-17 12:34PM | 0 recs
Diageo
Who is Diageo hotline anyway?
This election is the first I heard of them
by gil44 2008-09-17 11:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Diageo

Diageo is a huge beverage company - Guinness, Johnnie Walker, Tanqueray, Captain Morgan.  The Hotline is a campaign related Web site/newsletter published by the National Journal.  They just launched their daily tracker a couple of weeks ago.  Unlike the other three, they don't publish on the weekends.  FD (fd.com) is the firm that does the actual polling - don't know much about them.

by OGLiberal 2008-09-17 11:50AM | 0 recs
Off topic but I couldn't resist sharing

Obama today in Nevada delivering a great zinger.

by DPW 2008-09-17 11:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Off topic but I couldn't resist sharing

Awesome!  

With what we've heard this week, it's apparent that Obama and Biden complement each other perfectly.

My favorite is still when Biden said "I would walk around East Lansing all day and nobody would tell me that the fundamentals of our economy are strong, unless I ran into John McCain!"

by neko608 2008-09-17 11:52AM | 0 recs
CNN.com headlines as of 4:34PM EDT 9/17/08

Agenda much?

Poll in 5 key states show McCain, Obama close
CNNMoney: Oil jumps as investors flee Wall St.
iReport.com: What are you giving up?
Nobel winner: 6 ways to fix Wall Street
Tainted formula kills 3 babies, sickens 6,000
Investigation finds FAA rushed jet approval
Video shows piglets slammed to floor
Al Qaeda blamed for U.S. Embassy attack
People: Actor Ryan O'Neal and son arrested
White House rips Democrats' energy bill
Cindy McCain lashes out at 'The View'
 
Martin: Four essentials for the middle class
Ticker: Palin takes first impromptu question

Am I reading Drudge or CNN? Not one point mentions Obama's favorability. I know they have a financial advantage to keeping this race close, but CNN.com has become so pathetic and irrelevant.

If we make enough noise, they cannot get away with this.

by iohs2008 2008-09-17 12:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes

where's Jerome now??

by Metrobot 2008-09-17 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Lead may be due to Hurricane Ike

McCain lost his lead in several tracking and non-tracking polls  because of Hurricane Ike. Hurricane Ike started in a big Red State Texas where 4 million people lost power and telephone connections. After leaving Texas/LA, Ike traveled through several Red states (OK,MO,OH) and caused similar problems. Therefore the poll results skewed in favor of Obama. The state polls on the other hand were not taken during this period which shows a McCain lead. The national poll leads MAY disappear next week and state polls may still show a McCain lead.

by Avistan 2008-09-17 07:12PM | 0 recs

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