Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Here are the latest swing state numbers from CNN and Time:

Michigan (September 7-9, 966 RVs, MoE 3.0%)

John McCain (R): 45 percent
Barack Obama (D): 49 percent

Missouri (September 7-9, 940 RVs, MoE 3.0%)

John McCain (R): 50 percent
Barack Obama (D): 45 percent

New Hampshire (September 7-9, 899 RVs, MoE 3.5%)

John McCain (R): 45 percent
Barack Obama (D): 51 percent

Virginia (September 7-9, 920 RVs, MoE 3.0%)

John McCain (R): 50 percent
Barack Obama (D): 46 percent

Looking through the write up of the polling linked to above, one piece of data jumped out at me from the Virginia survey:

Obama is leading in southeast Virginia, where he spent Wednesday campaigning, 54% to 41%, despite the Arizona senator's strong military background; the area is home to the Naval Mecca of Norfolk as well as several Army and Coast Guard bases.

The full internals of this poll have not been released, but doing some triangulation it's likely that the margin of error for the subsample of Southeast Virginia is in the neighborhood of plus or minus 7 percentage points, meaning that these numbers are likely right on the edge of statistical significance. That said, if it is indeed the case that Obama is leading by about 13 points in the region, it's hard to see him losing the state. Note that back in 2006 Jim Webb carried the Southwest portion of the commonwealth by a 53 percent to 47 percent margin. So it's definitely worth keeping an eye on polling from Virginia to see if these numbers showing Obama particularly strong in the Southeast portion of the commonwealth are borne out in other surveys.

Anyway, overall this remains a close race.

Tags: MI-Pres, MO-Pres, NH-Pres, VA-Pres, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

44 Comments

Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Your numbers are reversed for NH.

by Steve M 2008-09-10 01:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Thanks.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-09-10 01:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

You need to flip those NH numbers

by Lokichilde 2008-09-10 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Thanks.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-09-10 01:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Down 5 in MO is not bad for Obama, if that is not an outlier. Last poll I saw had Obama down 10 in that state.

by lalawguy 2008-09-10 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

i'm not sure I agree with you regarding the virginia beach/norfolk/newport news area.

Despite having a strong military presence, that region is very Democratic outside the city of Virginia Beach. It was a huge bastion for Obama in the primaries in fact.

What Obama will not do relative to Webb is outperform in the western portions of the state that are in Appalachia.

by alex100 2008-09-10 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Agree. The Scots-Irish connection that Webb had in rural Virginia is even more so with McCain. Throw in Christain conservative Palin, mix the strong navy background (Virginia is not a military state, it is a NAVY)and the chances of Obama taking Virginia are very small indeed.  Everyone needs to remember McCain is going to do OK in suburban VA - he won't win that section, but he will do much better than Bush did.

by oliver777 2008-09-10 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO
I disagree with your premise for a few reasons. First of all, Mark Warner is on the ticket and we will see some reverse coattails in play.
Obama's campaign is much better organized than McCain's in general and this is still true in VA.
There will be three big names supporting Obama in VA, who does McCain have their? Jim Gilmore?
I am not saying that we WILL win Virginia. I am saying that it is very likely in play. NOVA is going to go to Obama the question is by how much? I think the answer is going to be "by more than expected."
by JDF 2008-09-10 02:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

All of these numbers presume that Palin is going to seem just as good in November. I don't think that's true. Frankly, if she goes the next several months without making a(nother) serious gaffe that belies a fundamental policy ignorance or misunderstanding, she DESERVES to be President, because she will be the smartest person ever to run for office.

by vcalzone 2008-09-10 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

We will know after the Charlie Gibson interviews if she has the stuff to make it through the gauntlet. One note of caution for Obama supporters regarding these interviews.  They are making the same mistake as they did in the days leading up to her acceptance speech at the Republican convention. By the time she gave the speech, expectations were so low she could have read the phone book and looked good. Obviously, she did better than good.  What happens if Palin nails the Gibson interviews? (over two days, no conditions).  The Obama people have set her up for another, higher, round of acclaim IF she pulls it off.  I've seen her unscripted interviews on YOUTUBE and she does the one on one interviews better than Obama, Biden, or McCain! If she pulls this out it could launch the ticket to such a lead, Obama would not be able to catch them in 7 short weeks.

by oliver777 2008-09-10 02:49PM | 0 recs
Oh, it takes more than that.

The press isn't stupid. They won't be fooled by this, even if the people are. And if they're not on board, it really WILL make a difference. There's an uprising that's already begun, and everyone has already said they don't expect this to be hard-hitting. What they want is a chance to ask her questions that haven't been prescreened WITHOUT a huge team of advisors available to feed her the answers.

The woman who beat her out for Miss Alaska said it herself. They're MADE for those kinds of interviews. It's what they train for. It doesn't mean they necessarily can go any deeper than a 10 second soundbite.

My prediction, we'll see a couple of easily understood foreign policy issues where she can break from the talking points without really hiccupping, and we'll see her go deep into pipelines and oil drilling (but probably NOT deep into alternative energy, wind, solar or nuclear).

by vcalzone 2008-09-10 03:01PM | 0 recs
Gibson's awful
Gibson's going to toss softballs. The only time he's ever been forceful is when he needed to press Obama on his flag lapel pins (wonder if he'll press Palin on why McCain didn't wear a pin at the convention...?).
by mikeinsf 2008-09-10 03:06PM | 0 recs
Except

Charlie Gibson does not interview GOPers.

He blows kisses.

by Trond Jacobsen 2008-09-10 03:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Strongly disagree. Remember, Bush won Virginia with a healthy 54% of the vote in 04' and Kerry took 70% of the NOVA vote in 04'.  Obama just isn't going to do much better. Bush was very unpopular in N Virginia in 04' whereas this is McCain's stomping grounds and he is very well liked there. Overall Obama might pick up a couple of pts statewide due to his GOTV, but it won't be enough against the McCain-Palin ticket.

by oliver777 2008-09-10 02:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

The Democrats inability to attrack the Scots-Irish vote has a problem for decades and unfortunately it carries on in this election.

Obama or his surrogates needs to spend time in Appalachia and connect with the economic populist themes that will work there.  Look, he's an outsider.  Everybody knows that.  But if he respects the culture and gives real solutions to the economic problems that have been hurting Applachia forever, he can limit his losses.

Obama must limit his lossses in Western Viginia, SE Ohio, Western NC, if he wants to win these states.  

Forget Florida, send the Big Dawg to Blacksburg.  

by Eric11 2008-09-10 05:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Agree. I'm voting in VA from abroad, and am excited that it's not a given as a red state this time, but even as the Palin bounce hopefully dissipates somewhat, I'm expecting southwest VA will go heavily for McCain.

It's not the southeast I'm worried about.

by mimi42 2008-09-10 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Maybe if you put the state numbers according to the order you mention them in your title?
I was pretty confused at first.

But I think at this point those numbers are good. Let's not forget this is McCain's Palin shock and attention to lose. I'm already over both of them. No, really, for the first few days I thought it was a media curiosity. Palin turned out to be a marketing ploy, a fraud at best who ain't living like any housewife or middle class woman I've ever met. After Fannie Mae and WaMu and Lehman anyone who votes Republican has only two reasons they ever wake-up from their daze: beer and football. But I know a lot of those guys and they aren't voting Republican so Fox must be hypnotizing people.

by Jeter 2008-09-10 02:04PM | 0 recs
Rasmussen nos. for NM

The Rasmussen numbers for NM are out.

McCain is up within the margin of error.

Obama needs NM!

NM is one of those states where it's gonna come down to a few hundred votes, so I'm biting my nails through November....

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-09-10 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen nos. for NM

If Obama only wins New Mexico by a few hundred votes, this election is over.  I'm as negative as they come, but Obama is not going to lose this state.  It's only one poll, taken in the middle of the convention bounce and basically is the only poll that shown McCain with a lead.  

Don't believe it.  The real state to focus on is Colorado.  Obama wins NM, CO, MI, IA, NH, and WI it is game, set, match.  

by Eric11 2008-09-10 06:02PM | 0 recs
Not Very Soothing

Especially with a new poll showing Obama up in Pennslyvania by only 2 points. Looks like some up for grab red states such as Montana, Indiana and North Carolina are now firmly in the McCain column. Michigan and Pennslyvania are now toss up states.

Also, there is probably a Bradley effect, but my guess is that the Palin pick reduced this effect by giving many people the feeling that they wouldn't look racist by telling posters that they were voting for McCain since they now can say that they are voting for the first woman vice president.

Hopefully, the excitement over Palin will die down in the next couple of weeks and everything will return to normal, with Obama holding a slight but significant edge.

by Zzyzzy 2008-09-10 02:27PM | 0 recs
I was at the Daily Kos

and someone wrote that it was the newly released Battleground Rasmussen poll. So technically, from my point of view, I'm using hearsay evidence.

Now that the students are getting back to campus, I hope that Obama can really mobilize the college students. Last winter, before I moved, I was my precinct caucus chair who supported Hillary. But the Obama supporters just stormed in and took over the caucus. I hope he can recapture that early energy.

by Zzyzzy 2008-09-10 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

It's good to see hes up in MI and NH. I'm kinda surprised at that VA number....i do agree if he wins southern Virginia, he wins the state.

Right now I believe the best option is to spend the most time and money in the kerry states and CO,NM,and IA. It seems the most viable at this point too.

by werd2406 2008-09-10 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Agree with CO and NM.  Forget IA.  McCain has too much ground to make up and has never been popular in the state, going back to 2000.

He needs to spend time Appalachia and SW Viginia.  He limits his losses there, he might be able to put something out of his bu** in VA.  

by Eric11 2008-09-10 06:05PM | 0 recs
So much for changing the map

god I remember when Obama was telling everyone how he was gonna change the map and he was gonna do this 50 state bullshit. So much for that. Did anyone expect Obama to win Montana, Indiana, or North Carolina? Those states don't have really any precedent for going Dem in the last 40 years. If Obama would air decent ads, at least he could fight for OH, keep PA, and he better win NH, or he's done.

by Lakrosse 2008-09-10 02:31PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map
Such Concern.
by mikeinsf 2008-09-10 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map

Yeah, I did... and if McSame picked some lame white guy, we could've won some of those states...  North Dakota gave us a three point edge after OUR convention...

Regardless, the fifty state strategy is a long term strategy.... it's designed to give us more Testers and Schweitzers in the long run... it's about a lot more than just the presidential campaign...

by LordMike 2008-09-10 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map

"... if McSame picked some lame white guy, we could've won some of those states... "

Since you started with the "ifs" here's another if:

if Obama picked some balls-of-steel white gal, we could've won some of those states...  

by wasanyonehurt 2008-09-10 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map

Actually, if he did that we'd lose all those western states.... they are definitely anti-hillary...

by LordMike 2008-09-10 03:47PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map

Yeah, it's over.

Dear lord... it's tough to figure out whether you're a concern troll or just a chicken little sans even the chicken little head.

Indiana is over?

There's not one single poll ANYWHERE that has ever shown McCain leading IN in single digits.  The most recent IN poll?   Howey-Guage is our most recent poll -- released just last week -- has the race at 45-43 (M-O).   Exactly what is that leads you to believe Indiana is "over"?

MT?  Hey - you're right - the most recent Rass poll is very discouraging... but - it didn't include Ron Paul - who will be on the ballot.  It also captured the very essence of the convention bounce.  Let's see what the next poll gives us.

NC?  Well... PPP says it's 4 points.  SUSA says it's 20.  Everyone else says its single digits.  What's the truth? Probably 6-8 pts -- but nowhere in the calculus is NC even part of the plan.  

by zonk 2008-09-10 03:22PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map

PPP is based in NC. I think it considered it a point of pride to go out and repoll that result. I'm inclined to go with them.

by vcalzone 2008-09-10 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: So much for changing the map

RCP poll average Indiana has McCain +4.7

Howey-Gauge 08/29 - 08/30  McCain +2
Rasmussen 08/19 - 08/21  McCain +6
SurveyUSA 08/16 - 08/18 McCain +6

Unfortunately everything in Indiana is pre-RNC if you want to assume Palin had no effect that's fine, but it's plausible that she hurt us there too.

by wasanyonehurt 2008-09-10 03:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up

Hold serve in the east plus pick up IA, Co or NM and we win.  

PA is the wild card right now it seems.

Obama is only up 2, a 7 point drop since the last polling coming out of PA.  

At the end of the day Obama has more ways to work the map.   Stii this thing shouldn't even be close if Obama would just get some decent help to run his campaign.

by RichardFlatts 2008-09-10 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up

If McCain wants to spend millions in PA please do so.  While he's at it, go buy some ad time in New Jersey.  

by Eric11 2008-09-10 06:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up

McCain is going to have to expand his map somewhere.  With western states trending more Democratic with each passing year the Republicans are going to have to find a way to flip a Michigan or a PA or see their hopes for the White House dashed for a long time.

by RichardFlatts 2008-09-11 05:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

2 days after the nadir of McCain's bounce, and we're obsessing over polls?

Give me a break.

by lojasmo 2008-09-10 02:46PM | 0 recs
How can you not be happy with these numbers?

Up outside the MOE in NH and MI?

Great news.  

He's only down 5 in MO?  That means MO isn't out of play yet -- I was thinking it might be.

The VA number is a little discouraging in that it's the first poll I've seen in month that shows McCain up outside the MOE -- but still, 4 pts?

That's doable.

That's very doable.

Folks, forget the atmosphere, forget OMFG!!1 WE SHOULD UP 50 wailing and moaning... The GOP KNOWS it's not going to win back the House.  They know the Senate is gone.

The GOP was ALWAYS going to focus on the Presidential race -- and as much as the GOP base may not particularly like John McCain --- do you really think they were just going to let EITHER Obama or Clinton (or Obama/Clinton, or Clinton/Obama, or Obama/Kaine, or Clinton/Bayh, or whatever) simply waltz into their last remaining federal firewall?

Of course not.  

This was always going to be a tough race.  

Obama is holding the two firewalls here -- MI and NH.

He's challenging two states that aren't particularly a part of his path to victory.

Obama's firewall is all Kerry states + IA + NM + CO.   Flipping VA, FL, or OH effectively ends John McCain.

by zonk 2008-09-10 03:16PM | 0 recs
There goes McCain's electoral strategery,

McCain needs Michigan and New Hampshire to make Ohio irrelevent.

If Obama holds those, and picks up New Mexico and Nevada, I think he gets over the top without Ohio,

by Hesiod Theogeny 2008-09-10 04:31PM | 0 recs
Re: There goes McCain's electoral strategery,

One problem. McCain is now up in New Mexico and with the Palin selection Nevada, Colorado, and Montana were lost.  Obama needs to sweep Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, N.H., and Virginia.

by oliver777 2008-09-10 04:44PM | 0 recs
Re: There goes McCain's electoral strategery,

1)  Colorado is not lost.

2)  People need to stop being so scared of Palin.  Think Republicans crawl into a hole everytime something doesn't go there way.  

Seriously, grow a spine and fight back.  

by Eric11 2008-09-10 06:09PM | 0 recs
Re: There goes McCain's electoral strategery,

Ummm...no.

Obama can win without Viginia if he takes Ohio.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2008-09-11 08:53AM | 0 recs
Re: The REALNESS.

The reason Obama is ahead in southeast VA is because the military is SCARED SHITLESS of PALIN.  They are AFRAID McCain will DIE in office and leave PALIN as commander in chief.

by nzubechukwu 2008-09-10 05:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Up in MI and NH, McCain Up in VA and MO

Hard to take state polls seriously. I have idea why everyone obsesses over them. The majority of the best political bets I've ever made have come when idiotic state polls have altered the trading price to absurd territory.

Indiana was an example about a month ago. I've got plenty of Indiana contracts at 60 average for McCain to carry the state, and if that isn't theft I don't know what qualifies.

The tragedy is Obama supporters were allowed to get away with all the ignorant crap from the primaries, assertions that Obama fared better than Hillary vs. McCain and it would always remain that way. The early state polls were idiotic, implying that Obama would fare 8 to 12 points better than Hillary in some states vs. McCain. Newsflash: it's Democrat vs. Republican in a polarized era and 85% are locked in place. There's no such thing as one Democrat faring many points better or worse than the other. It's along the margins and we're gambling like hell that the 1 or 2 percent that Obama will be weaker than Hillary in states like Ohio and Florida doesn't come back to bite our ass.

Do you really think Hillary would be on the defensive right now, obsessing over lipstick? When the economy is by far the overriding concern, give me a Clinton making the case and I'll take my chances.

Sorry for the vent but I wanted a relatively easy ride and Obama has confirmed some of my concerns, masochistically on the defensive, seemingly without energy, and an aimless wander day to day with pathetic commercials. If he were a superior debater I would be less annoyed.

But I agree with an earlier post in this diary that we need to wait and let the bounce subside. The small but sweeping situational edge should be enough. And I still have no idea why polls are taken between conventions. Nothing could be more worthless. I've got money on Obama at 53 and 48 and frankly, I'd rather transfer all of it to McCain at 60 to win Indiana. One is gambling and one is a pickup.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-09-10 05:47PM | 0 recs
Re: I call shenanigans
I agree. I saw a stat not long ago that was particularly surprising: Barack Obama was outfundraising John McCain by 6 to 1 in the  military. Obama was the top dollar getter followed by Ron Paul.
If Obama is even tied with McCain in the Hampton Roads area, then McCain has lost the state. Northern Virginia and Richmond is Obama country. With the exception of Charlottesville, western Virginia is McCain. Hampton Roads was McCain's firewall.
by xodus1914 2008-09-10 06:17PM | 0 recs
I wonder why Jerome didn't post this?

oh, right! it's not bad news for Obama, so he's not interested....

by scorinaldi 2008-09-10 07:15PM | 0 recs

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