Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

One pollster does not an election make, but its interesting to look at the trend of Rasmussen's 'likely voter' national polling since the first week in June, when this became an Obama - McCain GE race:
Summary of Weekly Polling Results
Rasmussen Reports
7,000 Likely Voters Per Week

                 No Leaners             With Leaners        

Wk Ending        Obama    McCain        Obama   McCain

Aug 3            44       43            47      46
Jul 27           45       41            48      45
Jul 20           44       41            46      46
Jul 13           44       41            47      45
Jul 6            46       40            49      44
Jun 29           46       40            49      44
Jun 22           46       40            49      43
Jun 15           46       40            49      44
Jun 8            46       40            49      44 
We can revisit this at the beginning of the week, but with todays results, it looks like this week will result in the following:
Aug 10           44       44            47      47
All tied up. No doubt, Daschle is right is saying that Obama took a small polling hit from the McCain attacks on Obama as a lightweight celebrity candidate. But I believe the bigger result was that the attacks energized the Republican base to more strongly favor McCain.

It will be interesting to watch the reaction to the potential of Lieberman being the VP for McCain, now that we can read Lieberman's on the McCain shortlist, but here's a sample. This, like traveling with Ridge in PA next week, is likely a floater more than a real option. I don't believe that Romney is going to be chosen either now (too late to get his money). Palin is mentioned a lot by conservatives, but not by the McCain campaign. Is Cantor for real? He's seen as a lightweight in VA. Pawlenty may get it by default.

Tags: Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags)

Comments

42 Comments

Can't get excited by general election polls

especially from Rasmussen.  It's the state polls that matter and right now Obama is still doing well in the state to state matchups.

Chuck Todd looked at the state to state matchups this past week and Obama has moved up compared to last month.

by puma 2008-08-09 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Can't get excited by general election polls

Agreed. It's still an electoral college election.

And as for Rasmussen, they have been especially ridiculous this season, actually lowering their number of represented Democrats last month.

Would I like it to be a blow out? Of course. Am I genuinely surprised that John McCain managed to generate support from even 2% of the country? You betcha. Am I frustrated by the traditional media's need to have this be a close race? Oh. My. Gosh. Yes.

But one thing I'm not is afraid. Our ground game is insane. Our volunteers are happy and excited. Our voter turnout plans are unlike anything this country has ever seen.

Polls can only measure preference, not passion. All "likely voter" models (and they are getting creative) are thrown out the window this year (we had nearly 40 million voters in the PRIMARY). So polls don't scare me. And Rasmussen downright makes me laugh.

by not Brit 2008-08-09 08:55AM | 0 recs
It's gonna be Joe!!!!!!!!!!!

I knew it. I knew it.  I knew from the moment Lieberman said that he wouldn't take the VP spot on McCain's ticket that he was going to be the ONE.

God this gets me more fired up for Obama than ever.

by ArkansasLib 2008-08-09 08:49AM | 0 recs
That would explain

the Eric Cantor headfake.

He's an untelegenic guy no one outside his district has ever heard of - how could he possible be a credible VP?

But floating his name makes sense if the GOP wants to get buy-in from the GOP base for the idea of a conservative Jewish candidate...

... who ends up being named Joe.

by bob fertik 2008-08-09 09:30AM | 0 recs
IMHO - McCain will attempt to cut into BO's
base where Mc has nowhere to go but up -
look for woman, Jewish or latin VP pivk (if there's any available that wont PO the X-ian right).
Thank God the GOP bench is so thin !!!!
by kosnomore 2008-08-09 08:50AM | 0 recs
BTW - You realize you're a McPuma troll - -

for pointing out the obvious, right?

by kosnomore 2008-08-09 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Quick question:

Is this due to shifts in battleground states or McCain gaining a bigger lead in large red states (like Texas)?

by TCQuad 2008-08-09 08:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

They dont release state by state results, and there's not enough week-to-week state polling in general done at this point, to really say for sure.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-08-09 08:55AM | 0 recs
Precisely. McCain's lead in his states is far

larger than the leads Obama has in his states.  Thus, nationally it can be tied with Obama still way ahead in the EC.

by jgarcia 2008-08-09 12:13PM | 0 recs
Polls still show that the enthusiasm gap

between the Dems and the Repubs is HUGE.  Plus the GOP is so far behind in their ground-game compared to Obama.  

Also, a few days ago NYT had an article in which it showed that Repub registration was DOWN in many key swing states compared to Dems and Indies.  

I still say that this election will be won on the ground.

by puma 2008-08-09 08:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

I don't want to personalize this, but you give me no choice:

a) What is the likely voter screening model? We both know why you didn't provide that since it's been discussed at length on multiple polling sites.

b) Aggregate polling rather than relying on one pollster is the preferred model for pollster.com, rcp, chris bowers, fla dem, etc. Why not you?

c) As Bowers noted, the data in the national tracking polls are incompatable with the state polling data. As Florida Dem noted over at Open Left in his normally excellent polling analysis, when given a choice between state and national numbers, one goes with the state numbers because 1) it's more accurate and 2) as Singer posts infers from earlier today- we are an electoral college. Candidates fight state by state battles, not national.

Like I said, I don't understand your posts in the context of the wider data that I know you get because of who you are.

by bruh3 2008-08-09 09:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

I'm not going to get into the perennial "likely voter screen" dispute, but relying on the aggregate of polls has it's own weaknesses. It's not the best method for spotting trends, which is why pollster.com does so much massaging of their aggregates to try to find trends. Looking at a single poll over time is more likely to reveal a trend.

At this point in the campaign state polls are too infrequent and unreliable to depend on. Typically they lag behind the national polling trends by a few weeks. This does not mean state polls are worthless, they are probably accurately reflecting Obama's current strenght, but they aren't particularly predictive.

by souvarine 2008-08-09 10:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

No polls are predictive.  Polls only provide a snapshot in time.  

And since we don't elect Presidents with a national vote, national polls are really only good for obsessives like us to obsess over.

by fbihop 2008-08-09 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Well that's interesting. I haven't heard an argument that poll trends are irrelevant. Care to sketch it out some more?

by souvarine 2008-08-09 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

poll trends just like anything else are only as relevant as methology. a likely voter model this far out is normally considered bad polling. a national poll is normally considered to be secondary to individual state polling. if you have sources other than the one I site that refute this , please provide them. Having read the other sources, I am not going to take your word for it.

by bruh3 2008-08-09 11:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

fivethirtyeight.com
pollster.com
realclearpolitics.com

I don't think your post is credible. Why should one trust one poll over many? Who gets decide which poll to trust? for that matter, how does one trust a trend line without scrutinizing the methology that went into the polling data? How does one prevent cherry picking? The reason by the way  , I provide you with the list of polling sites above is that these are just a few of which I've been visiting since Apr. Ylur argument about the frequency of state polls is also false.

Anyone curious about real polling data- I suggest checking out a real polling data site.

by bruh3 2008-08-09 11:17AM | 0 recs
There have been 150 state polls

since mid-june.  If you understand how to analyze them, you understand they are far more frequent than a tracking poll from 1 pollster.

by fladem 2008-08-09 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

I truly don't trust Rasmussen on this daily tracking thing. While today's Rasmussen poll is showing McCain up by 1,Gallup is showing Obama widening his lead by 5 points  

by omosege 2008-08-09 09:13AM | 0 recs
We shouldn't get excited about tracking polls

Rasmussen has it tied while Gallup has Obama up to McCain by 47 to 42 today.

by puma 2008-08-09 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

We need less people whining about polling mechanics and more people who should assume that Obama has an uphill battle.

While I still believe that in the end, Obama will win in an electoral landslide, it is becoming abundantly clear that this election will no longer be a cakewalk.  Wake up people.  We complained about polls in 2004 saying they couldn't possibly be accurate instead of fighting harder.  We lost.

I am not sure if Obama is saving his money for October, but he needs to go on the attack.  This is politics.  Have a 527 raise questions about McCain's affair with Cindy McCain while he was still married to his first wife who was in a wheelchair.

Start hitting him HARD or we really could be disappointed.

by agpc 2008-08-09 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

While I still believe that in the end, Obama will win in an electoral landslide, it is becoming abundantly clear that this election will no longer be a cakewalk.

Ok, let me get this straight he "will win in an electoral landslide", but it is "clear that this won't be a cakewalk". Huh...Heh...Color me confused, or I'm really missing something...

by hootie4170 2008-08-09 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Perfectly consistent statement.

Look at 1980.  It was not a cakewalk for Reagan most of the way, but IN THE END he won in a landslide.

by BlueEngineerInOhio 2008-08-09 12:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Bullshit...It was a piss poor comment...

by hootie4170 2008-08-09 06:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

I agree that Repub Noise Machine is starting to successfully demonize Obama with the Conservative faithful.

(They've obviously given up trying to make McCain appealing and are concentrating instead on making Obama unthinkable.)

Don't think much of Rasmussen's "likely voter" model, tho.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-09 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

It had nothing to to with McCain's attacks...

It has everything to do with McCain taking Iraq off the table...  Now that he's endorsed withdrawal, he's been able to steal some of Obama's "anti-iraq" appeal.

It's not drilling, it's not celebrity, it's all Iraq.

Fortunately, the GOP camp is missing this, so they aren't exploiting it more.

by LordMike 2008-08-09 09:33AM | 0 recs
This election was never about Iraq

The primary was.  This election will be all about the economy.

by puma 2008-08-09 09:57AM | 0 recs
the reason to pick Romney...

is not for his money (with public money, it doesn't make any difference) but because he can be a relentless attacker allowing McCain to modulate his attacks.  Romney will do anything Steve Schmidt - read Karl Rove - tells him to do, he wants it that bad.  

Romney won 11 States -  most in the north geographic tier of the country which includes many challenge and hold States for McCain (plus Nevada and Colorado).  Also, Romney has the quiet support of all three Bushes and is an acceptable National Review crowd choice.  Romney may hurt in the southern States but probably not enough to tip the balance to Obama.  

Romney's one big problem is that McCain thinks he's a mook.  That might be enough to keep him out because if McCain is going to lose, it might as well be with someone he enjoys being around.    

The more you learn about Pawlenty, the more you see what a lightweight he is.    

by mboehm 2008-08-09 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: the reason to pick Romney...

Yeah, Romney is my big worry.

He'll do anything to get the White House and talk about his "business background" could con a lot of dumb people into voting Repub on economic grounds.

(Or, at least, shore up McCain's perceived weakness on economic issues.)

by Bush Bites 2008-08-09 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: the reason to pick Romney...

yeah, i'm a little concerned about Romney as well.  If no Romney, I fully expect O will carry Nevada and Colorado.  But both of those states, especially Nevada, have a not insignificant Mormon vote.

by jgarcia 2008-08-09 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: the reason to pick Romney...

I've seen this over and over again and it just doesn't wash. Nevada and Colorado Mormon population are both 3% or under. Just how many of them do you think would vote for Obama if Romney is not on the ticket. Mormons are also pretty strongly motivated social issue voters. I just don't see a big swing.

by anoregonreader 2008-08-09 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: the reason to pick Romney...

you have a solid point.  and i hope you're right.  and, in addition to what you wrote, there's probably over three percent in each state that won't vote for the ticket because of his Mormonism.

by jgarcia 2008-08-09 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

"One pollster does not an election make"

                  Enough Said!

by venician 2008-08-09 10:02AM | 0 recs
McCain's VP box

Already, due to Sen. McCain's age, his VP picks is going to be subject to a great deal of scrutiny. But I think, by pursuing the narrative that Obama is a lightweight, Sen. McCain further boxes himself in, for it makes it very difficult to nominate someone who can be described as a lightweight. I think Jindal, Palin, Cantor, Crist, and even Pawlenty can be painted as such.

I can't imagine pro choice Lieberman will fly as VP. Same with Tom Ridge (who I think would be McCain's far an away best choice)

Romney's tough because of the high level of animosity in the primary, all captured on the YouTube.

I still think Kay Bailey Hutchinson makes the most sense.

As for the tightening of the national polls... finally, some good news for Obama.

1. The state by state breakdown, a much more accurate method to assess the presidential race, reveals a much stronger picture for Sen. Obama.

  1. The likely voters screens are going to hugely favor McCain, due to the fact Sen. Obama is targeting those who have past been considered "unlikely" voters - youth and first timers.
  2. Press is more likely to criticize McCain (I said more likely, not like they will do it)
  3. For Obama, he has always been a much better candidate when he's fighting, and much worse when he is the frontrunner and playing prevent defense
  4. For McCain, he gets lured into thinking his short term snark is somehow the winning election strategy. The words that would scare me most right now would be "McCain campaign shake up!!" Right now, McCain's campaign is running the same campaign as Steve Schmidt ran for Arnold for gov in California (referredum on other guy) and I assume that the debate will be very similar to Lieberman/Lamont in 06.  

I think both the debates and the convention speech will be big bumps from Obama, and offer a very striking contrast between the candidates. Plus, if the "celebrity" can hold his own with the "maverick", it completely undercuts all of McCain's messaging on Obama being a lightweight airhead.

by Benstrader 2008-08-09 10:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Its just so funny how Jerome will cherry pick the one poll showing the race to be a tie when all the other polling shows Obama with a 3-6 point lead.  Its completely intellectually dishonest and beneath what the standards of this place should be.

by Marylander 2008-08-09 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Rassmussen Final 2004 Tracking Poll Spot On

did something happen between 2004 and 2008?

by bruh3 2008-08-09 11:21AM | 0 recs
Did Something Happen?

Yes, McCain lost his damn mind and Democrats actually nominated someone who wasn't a spud.

by vcalzone 2008-08-09 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Did Something Happen?

Well the lost of the GOP brand is one. The 2006 wave year another. There are others, but frankly,  I just checked out NealB's commenting history. I can see that its not about the numbers. He has an agenda other than understanding trendlines and numbers. On the advice of a fellow poster I have started to look at other posters history to see if they are really interested in conversation or just have a bias. ie, there is this by Neal B

"[new] Who knows what Obama stands for? (none / 0)

I have no idea whether Jerome Armstrong has a beef about Obama, but I do. Obama has no principles. For the life of me, the further we get into this campaign, the less I know about the guy. For all we know at this point, the worst rumors of the wingnuts may be true. Obama doesn't seem to actually stand up and fight for anything. I fail to see how he's much different from McCain. They're both befuddled.

If we get Obama elected I honestly have no idea what we'll be getting.

None of us know what he stands for."

by bruh3 2008-08-09 11:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Jerome - - you have absolutely got to be kidding me.  

Gallup went to +5 today.  Three major national polls this past week showed +5 or +6 nationally.  The state polls are looking very good.

And you want to talk about one poll - - and it's the silliness spun out by well-known Gooper ScottyRazz?  

Construct another thesis.  And find something else to talk about.  

by wavery2001 2008-08-09 04:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

Looking at RCP, the average of the three LV polls is a tie.  The average for RVs is a five-point lead for Obama.  Maybe there is an enthusiam gap--Republicans are more excited than Democrats right now, because of McCain's attack ads.

And the fighting is South Ossetia could benefit McCain.

As for McCain's running mate, it could be Pawlenty or Cantor.

by esconded 2008-08-09 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

LIKRLY NOTER MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE USE LESS

by BDM 2008-08-09 05:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Rasmussen National: Trending to Tied

I don't know what a LIKRLY NOTER is, but I like the sound of it.

But yes, likely voter models are useless.  Not just this far out from the election--they're useless in this election.  The turnout is going to be very different from the turnout we've ever seen before.  More new people, more young people, more minorities.

We got almost 40 million votes in the primaries.

That's two-thirds of the way to beating Bush's record turnout in 2004.

by BishopRook 2008-08-10 08:14PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's VP

He'd be foolish not to choose a woman, either Chistine Todd Whitman or Kay Baily Hutchinson
by moevaughn 2008-08-10 06:40AM | 0 recs

Diaries

Advertise Blogads