McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerry States

John McCain has been investing big dollars on advertising in both Michigan and Pennsylvania, outspending Barack Obama in the two states, both of which John Kerry won in 2004 -- and which are key to Obama's electoral strategy. And just how are McCain's efforts coming along? The latest numbers out of Michigan can't be too reassuring for the GOP.

Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.

The trend out of Michigan, as captured by, doesn't look any better.

Yes, that appears to show Obama moving noticeably and consistently upward in the state and McCain failing to move his numbers even an inch. How about Pennsylvania?

In the Keystone state, Obama continues to see a similarly upward facing trajectory as he is experiencing in Michigan. However, unlike Michigan, in which McCain's numbers are at least staying flat at a time when he is outspending Obama in the state, in Pennsylvania, McCain's numbers are actually moving South.


Tags: MI-Pres, Michigan, PA-Pres, Pennsylvania, White House 2008 (all tags)



Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerr

And this is just now in the dull dead of summer. Another consistent element is the 'undecideds'.

They are the ones who actually answer random calls to tell the pollster to stop bum rushing their decisions which they will make sometime after the convention or labor day.

The real useful stuff will come then but, for now, the consistency of trend lines will do.

by chris rich 2008-08-09 06:51AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerr

Obama's energy plan is a surefire winner in Michigan.

by Steve M 2008-08-09 06:54AM | 0 recs
Perhaps this is the "Paris effect"

or the "Moses" revenge.  ;)

Doesn't look like the Rove celebrity strategy is paying off for McShame.  

by NeciVelez 2008-08-09 06:57AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Up Nationwide Today

Our President is chosen by the electoral college, right?

I love the fact that Rasmussen has Obama winning the Bush states of Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, has the Bush states of NV, OH, and VA as "toss up," has Obama winning all of the Kerry states, yet wants us to believe that McCain and Obama are tied nationally.  I wonder which set of numbers the media will talk about?

by deepee 2008-08-09 07:22AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Up Nationwide Today

Don't bother.

Look at the comment history there.

He/she is just here to rip Obama.

Even on threads that have nothing to do with Obama, he/she rips Obama.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-09 07:27AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers

Wonder how much of Pennsylvania is Hillary supporters coming back to the party after finding McCain unacceptable?

by Bush Bites 2008-08-09 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerr

Remember when people thought he couldn't win the "big states" he lost in the primaries?  That theory appears to be going down the toilet.

by deepee 2008-08-09 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerr

This points more to the fact that Pollster has weak charts than it does to the reality on the ground.

The last three McCain PA polls are higher than the previous three, and the trendline is going down? In MI, the last two are higher than the trendline.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-08-09 08:00AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerr

McCain has polled above 45 percent in a single poll in Michigan since the beginning of the year -- and that was back in January. Pennsylvania isn't too dissimilar, with McCain failing to top 45 percent since April -- and in a non-Republican poll since February.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-08-09 08:12AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Failing to Move the Numbers in Key Kerr

According to RCP, John McCain led in all but one poll in March, April and May. He hasn't been ahead in one since.  I would say that MI is not looking as good as it once did for McCain.  

Then again, even though I voted for Sen. Clinton, I am not dying to put a negative spin on every piece of data about Obama.

by deepee 2008-08-09 08:32AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain

Just logged into to say thank you. You are one of the few reasons I come to this site in terms of real analysis. I dont expect people to always agree. But I do expect them to admit to obvious facts. Whether Obama can sustain this is uncertain. But the fact that he is doing so well certain belies any claims that he is the weakest GE candidate we've had in a decade.

by bruh3 2008-08-09 08:21AM | 0 recs
Wasting Money in PA

I was just up in Central PA / Harrisburg-Lancaster-York-Gettysburg Media Market.... High Republican territory--Think the straight line of the notorious 'T' of PA....

McCain was runing ads at the pace of something 6-1 over Obama. If he can't move numbers (which I think he can't--you should have seen the Ron Paul signs in the primary) then he campaign is just buring a lot of money for nothing.

PA IMHO is long lost even with Ridge--(they were doing interviews about Electric Deregulation and how it was going to double your cost with Ridge as the 'source' of the Deregulation Legislation and Rendell as trying to solve it with 'new energy' like wind)

Anyway if Philadelphis puts out like it has even in last election 400000+ the state is Democratic... Philadelphia will easily put that out and more for Obama not to mention Democratics have now a 1 million Registration edge with is just growing day to day...

PA is going Democratic even though my vote will be in Maryland where I now live. McCain may just break even or lose Lancaster County which is a major Republican County. Watch the Central PA and Philadelphia numbers on election night if Philadelphia is over 400,000 the state is won. If two of the three counties around Philadelphia its all over (they report early) if McCain can't carry Lancaster County the state is lost. Any of these three 'indicators' will give the state to Obama. If all three of these indicators fall to Obama it will be a 55-60% win and litterly crush Republicans all over the state even in Republican territories.

The Primary was the Primary even though it went to Hillary it will go to Obama now... Those numbers are real and growing... McCain is just wasting money (Thank you John!)

by K Robert Schmitt 2008-08-09 07:26PM | 0 recs


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