Ambinder: McCain Has a White Male Problem
by Jonathan Singer, Thu Aug 07, 2008 at 04:55:12 AM EDT
Remember how Barack Obama was supposed to have been uniquely weak among White voters -- despite the fact that he runs ahead of both John Kerry and Al Gore among the demographic? Well, it turns out that it isn't Obama who is having the real problem with White voters, it's John McCain. Here's Marc Ambinder:
The Gap -- And There Really Is Only One Gap
It's white males. McCain wins them by double digits, he wins the election (probably). Obama keeps the margin to ten points or less, then he wins the election (probably). Time's latest polling gives McCain a seven point lead in that group with leanrers factored in. Even with a 3% percentage point racial premium fudge factor, it helps explain why Obama still leads. McCain is underperforming right now among white males.
Time magazine might spin a 5-point Obama lead as ominous for the Democrats' chances at the White House, and others might think that his 6-point lead in the latest CBS News also bodes poorly for him. In fact, despite the fact that Obama has led in virtually every national poll in the last two and a half months or so -- you can count on one hand the number of surveys in which McCain has led, and not all of them are particularly reputable -- and that Obama holds a a significant lead in the electoral college count almost regardless of whom you ask, it must be that it's Obama, and not McCain, who has got to figure out how to connect with voters. Unless, of course, it's not the numbers lying but folks in the establishment media misreading them, and it is McCain who is underperforming among key GOP demographics (including White men), who is struggling in the polls, and who is having difficulty cobbling together 270 electoral votes.