Another VP thread
by Jerome Armstrong, Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 01:03:13 AM EDT
Obviously, some sort of deal got worked out, Clinton said she would not put her name up for nomination, and Obama agreed to reinstate the FL & MI delegates. I think that many, if not most of us probably see the value of Hillary Clinton as the VP, but that's certainly not the signal of the CW. There's an article just pasted with resentment (and threatening), over Obama's signal that if it is not Clinton, VP pick may chafe Hillary supporters. I was a 'last opposition left standing' Clinton supporter (against Obama) in the primaries, but I wouldn't describe myself as 'chafed' if he chose someone else, I'd just still be on the fence about predicting whether Obama is going to win this election or not.
Obama is definitely the weakest nominee that Democrats have put up this decade. If you doubt that, just imagine what the polls would be showing if Bush had an approval rating of 45% right now. I am partisan enough that I don't care if who I wanted to win the nomination didn't get it, but the party is not fully unified. Many of the undecided are going to look at his VP pick for an assessment of 'judgment' on his candidacy. This seems pretty right on for a lot of voters:
"I'm sorry to say this but I do think [the Democratic divide] is sort of significant," Hoff said. "It could have an impact. It's not that you need a lot of them," meaning Clinton supporters who will sit out the general or vote for McCain. "You just need enough of them in key places."
Hoff compared the current dynamic to the Republicans in 1976, when Ronald Reagan's supporters never fully rallied to Gerald Ford, and the Democrats in 1980, when Edward M. Kennedy's supporters never fully warmed to Jimmy Carter.
"Ford lost because the neoconservatives sat on their hands and didn't turn out to vote. The real worry is that [Clinton's supporters] are going to sit on their hands, the older feminists," Hoff said. "I'm telling you they're mad."
It'll be interesting to see which way Obama goes. Usually, these VP signals from the CW are right on for the top three. In 2000, it was Kerry, Edwards, or Lieberman. In 2004, it was Edwards, Gephardt or Vilsack. Right now, Sebelius seems to have faded, and its Kaine, Biden, or Bayh.
I'd still stick with Kaine, out of those three. If Obama's going to go with Biden, then I really don't get him at all. Biden is as far away from 'change' as you can get, in Democratic politics. Biden was running for President before many of Obama's supporters were even born. I admit though, that seeing Obama choose the DLC's Bayh would be a theatrical display-- watching the mental gymnastics of his ardent supporters, lest their heads explode. If Obama really believes that he's got the stuff and doesn't need Clinton, he shouldn't choose someone that's a lesser breed. He should go with whom he really wants-- Kaine.
One more thing, if Obama is going with Clinton, it'll be because he's decided at the last moment (and not announced till like the 21st), and that its because he's come around to believe he needs her to win. Because if you read between the lines in Bill Clinton's "I am not a racist" interview, you can't see it. Personally, for Clinton to feel like he has to say that, brings me down quite a bit. We may get a situation like '60, when Kennedy realized it was necessary to offer the VP slot to Johnson, not realizing that he'd take it.
A poll, between Bayh, Biden, and Kaine, is attached for your vote.