Open Thread

I'm about to board my flight back to the Bay Area, so for now take a look at this:

Now it's important to note that Chuck Todd is right -- live by the Gallup tracking poll, die by it. These things, perhaps even more than other polls, are snapshots in time rather than predictions of the future. That said, it's never bad to see a 10-point net shift over three days.

Anyway, for now consider this an open thread... What's on your mind?

Tags: Open Thread (all tags)

Comments

56 Comments

Re: Open Thread

I won't be satisfied till he goes over 50%...

MORE!!

by MNPundit 2008-08-29 10:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

This  is  a realignment  election, imho obama will get more that 50 .

I was deeply affected by the speech  last night. Change doesn't come from washington, it comes to washington.

I dont know about you but I am taking Obama's message to heart. Its time to kick ass and take names.

I mean, seriously. In the end, government is just another public office. When the numbers clock over 50 percent,  IMVHO we will have all figured out, we'd better start improving our country.

That line about change, hit me hard.
That one and the barney smith line. That was a classic.

by Trey Rentz 2008-08-29 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

So what else is new?

Most of these posters won't be satisfied with anything their party does.

by spirowasright 2008-08-29 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

MNPUundit probably wounldn't be satisfied if Obama went over 100% in the polls.

by spirowasright 2008-08-29 02:06PM | 0 recs
I am bemused.

Sarah who?

Never heard of her.

Good thing Cindy got that prenup.

by emsprater 2008-08-29 10:31AM | 0 recs
I got the daughter-in-law opinion.

My d-i-l was a big Hillary supporter.  After Obama was she was still going to vote Democratic but a real downer to be around.  She's a high school graduate in her forties (Hillary's demographic) who only started voting in 2006. A low information voter.

Called my son and asked what his wife thinks about McCain picking Palin.  Her response "Who does he think he's fooling?"

So that's that.

by GFORD 2008-08-29 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I'm happy about the Palin pick!

I'm predicting a small bounce for McCain since he's announced it but then that will die down...and then where do you go from here? McCain's main argument was "experience" and now that that's gone, what do you do? Pray that voters will want 4 more years of the past 8 because a woman is running?

The fact that she herself said she doesn't really know what the vice president does is another treat to bring up in the ads as well as her ongoing investigation.

Personally, I think Romney wouldv'e been "tougher" just because he might've really taken Michigan and further complicating the election.

Let's get the ads rolling!

by werd2406 2008-08-29 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

McCain is running a dog and pony show.
He's going to bounce down on this one, probably two points.

And yes, announcing his VP the day after obama's speech - he's trying to blogstomp Obama. Isn't going to work.

At least the way he thought it would work.
Prediction:

2 point drift DOWN in the polls for McCain

by Trey Rentz 2008-08-29 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

What's on my mind?  I think Palin could be problematic, but not for the reasons that everyone thinks.

She's going to be McCain's attack dog.  A two-years Governor that nobody's heard of.  And day in and day out she's going to belittle Obama - "I think I can teach Barack Obama a thing or two about..."; "Let's see if Barack Obama has the guts to..." etc.

She was picked because she IS such a novelty.  Because she's seen as not serious.  She's a GIRL.  They just ramped up the "celebrity theme" by picking their own media darling, and from now until November she's going to be a pitbull around Obama's neck, questioning his experience, his manhood, while McCain runs the "respectful, mature campaign" that he keeps talking about.  Archie Bunker's going to eat it up.

What do we (and what does he) do about it?

by Jess81 2008-08-29 10:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I don't see how that would've been any different no matter who he chose as his VP? Wouldn't all the VP candidates be attacking Obama and vice versa?

by werd2406 2008-08-29 10:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

But she's SUCH a lightweight, and that happens to be the charge against Obama right now.  They question his experience, his seriousness, his machismo, everything.

Don't you see how having a Sarah Palin attacking him on those themes is so much worse, and qualitatively different than say, Mitt Romney?  Or even Kay Bailey Hutchinson?  She'll drag him down by proximity.

by Jess81 2008-08-29 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I see what you're saying. They might be hoping that it lowers him just to have someone like Palin coming after him.

by Cincinnatus 2008-08-29 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I see what you're getting at, but does that really work?  Maybe in a commercial for car insurance or washing machines, but as VP?

I can see it now:

Palin -"Obama doesn't even know as much as me, and I don't know anything at all!"

Crowd - "????"

Palin - "I'm tougher than he is and I'm a girl!"

Crowd - "????"

by the mollusk 2008-08-29 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Haha, you might be right.

Of course it would be more artfully put than that.

by Jess81 2008-08-29 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

bah!

sexism is running rampant again.

by alyssa chaos 2008-08-29 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Maybe I should have put "a GIRL" in scare quotes.  I'm a girl.  Without the scare quotes.

The point is that the core of the celebrity attacks on Obama is that he's a sissyboy.  He's fussy.  He's hysterical.  He's a starlet.  These are all words that Tucker Bounds has used in criticizing Obama.  Having Sarah Palin call him out constantly is going to reinforce that theme enormously.

by Jess81 2008-08-29 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

nah wasn't even talking about your comment. i was more referencing the comments of: 'mccain's wife had better watch out.' or like 'she was only picked because of her good looks' I just wonder what it would be like to be a guy and not have to have your looks be factored into job appointments. I mean it must be nice to not have to deal with that shit.

and well in reference to your comment now, they will probably try to hit him along those lines. thats how they always try to paint democrats [pansies, really gutless, not manly] while of course republican will try and paint themselves as patriots; big macho warrior types. Its subtle things like being called out by a girl thus making him less of a man, is what they are trying to achieve.

by alyssa chaos 2008-08-29 10:59AM | 0 recs
It applies to guys as well, just not as much

One of the main reasons Quayle was chosen for VP was his (supposed) good looks. Wikipedia quotes John McCain as saying, "I can't believe a guy that handsome wouldn't have some impact."

Well, hopefully his choice of Palin has the same effect

by MILiberal 2008-08-29 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I see it more as an attack on McCain who ran around on his first wife and then dumped her for a younger, richer version.  McCain isn't loyal to his own wife, how can he be loyal to you?

by blueAZ 2008-08-29 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I have to hand it to McCain.  I took today off from work so I get finish my homework before my fridy poker game.  Instead, I spent all day researching Palin and trying to figure why the heck he picked her.  Still haven't done my homework:P

My major concern with Palin is that she has not gone through the gauntlet like every other VP candidate from both sides had.  The thought of her suddenly taking McCain's place is very scary to me.  Had she been subjected to the rigors of a national primary campaign, then I would feel more comfortable that even if I disagree with her on policies she could do the job.  

In regards to her gender, that stuff makes no difference to me.  A right wing religious nut job who happens to be a woman is still a right wing religious nut job.

by Xris 2008-08-29 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Screw primary vetting, she wasn't even fully vetted by the campaign.

by vcalzone 2008-08-29 02:26PM | 0 recs
Before They Loved Hillary

From Ben Smith:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0 808/Before_they_loved_Hillary.html?showa ll

I said it before, HRC and her supporters didn't come this far for Sarah Palin to take advantage of their hard work.

by NJPolitico84 2008-08-29 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Before They Loved Hillary
I hope to god this is the attitude they take.   If Napalitano and Sebelius and McCaskell were all unqualified to be VP, why is Palin so qualified?
What has she done for women?
Is Palin going to fight for Health Care?  Is Palin going to fight for reproductive Choice?
by gavoter 2008-08-29 11:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Before They Loved Hillary
Because they're Republicans - Palin wasn't picked for her intelligence or her stance on the issues.
They absolutely think this is a winning pick, because they think people voted for Hillary because she is a woman.
by skohayes 2008-08-29 12:03PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Just keep putting that investigation for abuse of power out there - just like the current Bush VP, one that abuses power.  Help the media define her as under a cloud of scandal.

by MtnFrost 2008-08-29 10:50AM | 0 recs
Lilly Ledbetter

Someone needs to ask Palin about the Ledbetter act.  I'd like to hear what she has to say about McCain's vote.

by NewOaklandDem 2008-08-29 10:55AM | 0 recs
by blueflorida 2008-08-29 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

well their glasses were most definitely separated at birth.

by the mollusk 2008-08-29 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

c'mon didn't you think that was a little bit funny?

by the mollusk 2008-08-29 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Actually I definitely thought it was funny, and I thought I'd given you mojo. Turns out something weird happened and I ended up troll-rating you. Please accept my apologies.

by blueflorida 2008-08-29 02:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

The way the Gallup "daily" tracking poll works is they take a 3-day rolling average.  So, when McCain has a really good polling on day 1, and Obama has decent polling on day 2 and day 3, the average comes out more or less tied.  However, the instant day 4 comes, day 1 is no longer in the average, and suddenly the average jumps up.

It's goofy as hell and I don't know why we put so much emphasis on the "daily" tracking poll.

Over at DK they've estimated that most of this bounce is due to a single day of polling, Obama by double digits, that is skewing the sample, and once a couple days go by it should drop back to Obama up by 1-3 points.

by Skaje 2008-08-29 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

What a shock, Texas Darlin loves the pick.

by Bobby Obama 2008-08-29 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

On the rec list at DKos right now..."Palin: Hillary Clinton is a Whiner"

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/29/ 144749/984/664/579036

Maybe TD will have a change of heart?

by mnl1012 2008-08-29 11:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

And, thankfully, on the rec list here too =).

by mnl1012 2008-08-29 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

The elephant in the room is, how can a guy who's had 4 bouts with cancer choose such a lightweight as his possible successor?

Never mind the other elephant, why is a guy who's had 4 bouts with cancer even a nominee for president?

by Obama44 2008-08-29 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Not to rain on the happiness, but shouldn't this have been expected?  A 10 point convention bounce should've been expected.

How things stand in 2 weeks (1 week after Minneapolis will be more telling).  There will be a Republican bounce, probably 6-8 (my guess), to close the gap back and then where we stand in a week after is where we may start to see how people feel.

I, for one, think the Obama campaign may have to shift some strategy.  I think Palin was a superb pick for McCain.  Look, I think she's wrong on many issues, but I also believe she's the type of New Republican that Bush claimed he was (and wasn't).  I respect her hard work, and after reading through the stuff on the ethical issue right now, I don't put too much credence into that.  Look, irrespective of all issues, a state trooper that is guilty of gross misconduct and drunk driving, or drinking on the job (saw two different reports) is not someone I want on the street.  Now, how this plays on Monegan firing will be key, but I doubt there will be any real evidence that suggests Palin was behind this.

I think people are overlooking the amazing impact of the Palin pick for McCain.

1)  Adds youth to the ticket.  Adds charisma as well.

  1.  Doesn't change the foreign policy argument - people vote for the top of the ticket.
  2.  Much as I don't like it, drilling is decently popular with the peopl.
  3.  Adds a blue collar person with a great story.
  4.  Gets their base going - but this is a lady that has made inroads to the middle, at least, in Alaska.
  5.  A lady with a track record of fighting corruption.

There's other factors, and the female factor exists, although I don't even think it's as important as it will be made out to be.  I may not agree with her policies, but I respect the heck out of Governor Palin.

One of the things Democrats have struggled with is selling their short term economic vision.  The long term vision is fine, but people want results.  Obama started tightening that up with his speech, so we'll see how this plays.  More than ever, he needs the Clintons, who are amazing economic sellers, to help him out in this area.  

The selection of Palin refocuses the final push.  Rather than a strong focus on foreign policy, McCain is pivoting to a reform mantle.  Whether you buy it or not is what America will decide in November.  He's going after blue collar workers.  I think there's been an undercurrent that Sarah Palin won't be able to fight in the VP debate.  In fact, I expect her to do real well, and to perhaps even "win" against Joe Biden, and like Bill Clinton, I love Joe Biden.  This is a strong pick, and I think Democrats would be wise to be wary of what Sarah Palin can do in an election that will be about the blue collar working families.  The thing about elections has always been that, it is not always about what's right, it is about who can sell that message better.

There's a saying I go, I forgot who said it once.  Be wary of what you don't know (well, the saying goes on).  Don't underestimate Sarah Palin.  She can really change the political landscape.  She can remake the Republican Party.  She can push the party forward.  Whether or not the Republicans will follow, that's to be seen, but she has that ability to be, in many ways, Thatcher-esque, IMO.

by toonsterwu 2008-08-29 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I'm a troll?  Really ... how is my statement even being trollish at all.  I'd be very curious about that.

by toonsterwu 2008-08-29 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

It wasn't.

by vcalzone 2008-08-29 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Thatcher went to Oxford. She had years of national experience. McCain screwed Palin over and she screwed herself over. Had she waited four years to prep for national politics, she would have been unstoppable. Now, she is very much stoppable

I agree about Biden and the debate, though. They're setting her up to be the "HOLY CRAP SHE DID SURPRISINGLY WELL" candidate, and they need to get the media to downplay Biden's debate abilities somehow.

by vcalzone 2008-08-29 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Obama had better have a "bump" at the end of the convention.  It will be interesting to see what McCain's "bump" is after the Palin announcement.  I'll bet he's above Obama after today.  The polls are close but the Reps have their convention next week.  Let's look at the polls after that.

I think the Palin choice has fired up the Rep base.  The inexperience thing is not a good thing to bring up. The bottom of the Rep ticket may not have experience, but the top of the Dem ticket doesn't either.

by Cal in California 2008-08-29 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I'll be somewhat surprised if McCain is leading in the next few days.  Announcing Palin is one thing - selling and presenting Palin is what comes next.

by toonsterwu 2008-08-29 11:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

A 10 point convention bounce should've been expected

It was and it's been delivered. It's one less GOP talking point for people like you to spout that there was no bounce.

As for the rest of your McBush ad, it's as full of holes as a donut.

by Obama44 2008-08-29 11:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

"The inexperience thing is not a good thing to bring up."

I agree - you guys just surrendered on that one.

by Jess81 2008-08-29 01:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

The GOP base was already cemented. If they still thought they needed to do that, they were mistaken.

by vcalzone 2008-08-29 02:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

This is a classic convention bump. And these numbers don't take into consideration last nights acceptance speech. So tomorrow's numbers should be even bigger. But still, we should not get too worked up about late August tracking polls one way or the other. There will be a convention bounce for McSame and Pales-in-comparison and we should prepare ourselves for that.

by wasder 2008-08-29 11:32AM | 0 recs
I notice the Palin choice has caused

some dissent at Alegre's Corner. E.g. one or two people expressing that maybe voting democrat would be ok. Some of the louder voices are busy stamping it out, of course...probably won't last long...

by kydoc2 2008-08-29 11:34AM | 0 recs
50 and 45

It has been said somewhere -- perhaps on this site -- that an indication of true movement for either candidate would be if Obama could get beyond 50% or McCain could climb over 45%.

Sure, it's a one-day snapshot, but what I like about it is that our guy is almost to the point of having reached a significant milestone.  Their guy is going the other direction.

Still, if we see these same numbers next Friday then maybe we'll really be seeing something.

by Dmitri in San Diego 2008-08-29 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: 50 and 45

If we see the numbers next Friday, then things are good.  That would mean that Republican convention failed horribly and Obama would be on his way to the Presidency.  I don't expect such a gap come next Friday, but I'll be pleased if it's there.  I do expect Obama to be in the lead, though.

by toonsterwu 2008-08-29 11:45AM | 0 recs
What will we be talking about next Friday?

1) Hurricane Gustav hitting the Gulf Coast at the beginning of the GOP convention

2) First NFL game getting better ratings than McCain's acceptance speech Thursday night

by Fluffy Puff Marshmallow 2008-08-29 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

The DNC was amazing and I was impressed, moved and just plain fired up. Voted for Hill in the primary and am now solidly behind BHO. As for Palin, she is obviously a Hail Mary pass of desperation and cynicism. Clever but gimmicky and proof positive of McCain's utter and complete lack of judgment. I would never vote for him, period, no matter what woman he chose for Veep but this one in particular does not appeal to me as a woman or as a candidate. How can ANYONE who supported Hillary not support Obama? They have very similar views, ladies and gentlemen. Please do not be fooled by the that man behind the curtain. It's Karl Rove and he will be rubbing his hands together in delight if he can trick female Dems into voting against their own interests. Palin may be a nice person but she is not fit to be Veep and McCain should retire to one of his houses and enjoy his booze heiress wife instead of damaging our country further with 4 more years of madness.Vote out of hope and intelligence- not fear or resentment. The GOP says "Country First" but really they mean corporations and the people who own and run them. Remember vote for the President who will help Barney Smith and not Smith and Barney.

by Justgirl 2008-08-29 12:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread
I was listening to Wasington Journal this morning and heard two or three people call in that were undecided voters that watched Obama last night, and have decided to vote for him.
I think we'll see this in polls next week.
by skohayes 2008-08-29 12:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

The McCain camp is really rolling the dice here; Palin could very well end up turning into a total disaster.  Forget about her experience in politics-- she has ZERO experience on the national stage.  Who knows if she's going to turn into a gaffe machine?  She's young, inexperienced and has totally wacky beliefs.  

This is a pander to the wingnut base and not an appeal to centrists/independents.  It won't work.  The Repugs should have stuck with the "two white guys with lots of experience" theme.  I would have been more fearful of Portman or Ridge, who would have put Ohio or Pennsylvania in play.  This pick moves the Repugs more to the right, while the Biden pick helped move the Dem ticket to the center.  This election is going to be all about GOTV and independents, and while Palin may help McCain with the former, it will kill him with the latter.

by JK47 2008-08-29 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

I was TERRIFIED of Ridge.  But then again I don't understand the Republican base.

Palin, on the other hand, is more of a strict ideology pick, which I'm not afraid of - the Republican Party has shrunk and the Democrats have grown.

But then again, I don't understand how the Republican party works.

by Jess81 2008-08-29 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

One caution on the the Gallup poll:

It appears this was the breakdown of the three days:

8/26:  O 48, M 39
8/27:  O 53, M 39
8/28:  O 46, M 45

So day three of the convention wasn't so good for Obama.  Perhaps Biden is a drag on the ticket, giving the Clinotnistas some second thoughts after his speech (as good as it was).  I'm hoping
Obama's speech last night will trump Palinmania,
otherwise we're in trouble.

by esconded 2008-08-29 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Source for those figures?

Also, this is a tracking poll.  They are absolutely volatile and can be all over the place.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-08-29 01:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Open Thread

Some calculations on my part.  They are estimates, so they may be slighly off.

by esconded 2008-08-29 01:08PM | 0 recs

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