Obama's Choice

John Kerry announced his choice of John Edwards for VP on July 6, 2004, exactly 20 days prior to the first day of the 04 Democratic convention. If Barack Obama follows the same schedule, he will announce his choice on Tuesday, August 5. Certainly one suspects the announcement will come prior to the commencement of the Olympics on Friday, which means the likelihood is that the announcement will come some time in the next 5 days (just not on Thursday, Barack, OK?, I'll be on a plane.)

But who will it be? First let's look at the short lists. From The New York Times:

Evan Bayh
Joe Biden
Hillary Clinton
Chuck Hagel
Tim Kaine
Sam Nunn
Ed Rendell
Bill Richardson
Kathleen Sebelius

The Wall St Journal strikes Hagel, Nunn, Rendell and Richardson from their list and adds:

Jack Reed
Chris Dodd

The latest buzz has been Tim Kaine, a prospect that has been just about universally panned throughout the blogosphere and one that has been picked up by the trading markets.

From Justin Wolfers:

"The vice-presidential shortlists are getting a lot shorter -- and, on the Democratic side, prediction-market traders are moving sharply towards a new favorite. Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who rated only one-in-ten odds a week ago, is now given a one-in-three chance of winning the number two slot.

Even though Democratic operatives have floated a shortlist with seven possible picks (Senators Biden, Bayh, Dodd, Clinton and Reed, plus Governors Kaine and Sebelius), prediction markets suggest there are really only four serious candidates. Beyond Mr. Kaine, Mr. Bayh is the second favorite with a one-in-four chance, followed by Ms. Sebelius with a one-in-six chance, and Mr. Biden with a one-in-eight chance."

While the WSJ market gives "the field" -- in other words, anyone other than the top 4 -- only a 20% chance, I share Wolfers's skepticism about this CW top 4.

Even though I think the markets have the candidates in the right order, I would still be shorting the favorites, as it remains likely that someone pulls a rabbit out of a hat.

Sean at FiveThrtyEight concurs:

For my own gut sense, I have never been comfortable with the conventional wisdom surrounding Obama's VP pick. There's something nagging about it, and no hard numbers to support my feeling. Perhaps it's the "think different" approach to many aspects of the campaign - the next-level social networking, the unprecedented 50-state massive organizer approach, the generalized no-leak culture among decision-makers, etc. It strikes me that in multiple important key ways, the Obama campaign has made conscious departures from the conventional wisdom norm.

For me, my skepticism about the Kaine/Sebelius buzz is that I've never really bought into the "reinforcement" theory of VP choice. Some prominent bloggers have said, essentially, that Bill Clinton had it right when he chose another Southern young white dude because it reinforced his strength as opposed to shoring up his weaknesses. Barack Obama, the theory goes, needs to pick someone who reinforces his core message of change rather than worrying about using the VP pick to allay people's fears about his lack of national security experience. The problem with this is that Gore actually did fill a void in Clinton's resume; Gore had a ton of what Clinton lacked: Washington experience. I think the Obama campaign has calculated that he needs to do the same thing.

My gut tells me a couple of things. First of all, Barack is not going to pick someone who needs to be introduced to the country. He has enough of an uphill climb introducing himself to the nation, is he really going to pick another unknown quantity for the ticket? So that leaves us with a different list, which, let's say for argument, looks like this: Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, Wesley Clark, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Sam Nunn.

Among these possible picks, some are known thanks to their extensive Washington, DC resumes (Clinton, Biden, Nunn, Dodd), some are not (Clark, Edwards, Richardson.) So, which list will Obama pick from? You'll recall that in the primary, Barack ran against Washington experience and turned what Hillary thought would be her top selling point into an albatross around her neck with one very effective line: "are we just going to keep sending the same people to Washington and expect a different result?" In other words, if you've spent a lot of time in DC then how can you expect to change it? He could and should be using the same line against McCain, but he's not. The other day I noticed him almost say it at one of his townhalls, but he caught himself. Why? My gut is that he's leaning toward picking a Washington insider for his VP. My guess is it's Biden.

So if I were a betting man -- actually I am, but I'm not betting on this -- I'd short the top 3, buy up some Biden and not count Clinton out just yet. I'm not holding out some real hope that she'll be picked, mind you, I'm just not convinced that the signs of her demise as a possible VP pick -- e.g. her speaking on Tuesday at the convention, the shuttering of VoteBoth -- are dispositive. But contrary to CW I'd put her as more likely than Kaine or Sebelius at this point but I really don't expect it to be any one of the three of them.

What's your gut telling you?

Update [2008-8-3 4:23:10 by Todd Beeton]:I'm realizing I should have included Evan Bayh on my Washington insider list but he strikes me as really not well known and, well, a really boring pick. I've also always thought the psychological benefit of simply putting a Hillary supporter on the ticket was overblown. But two strategists on CNN tonight are predicting Bayh.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, vp choice (all tags)

Comments

216 Comments

Re: Obama's Choice

Some commenter on 538 mentioned Jeff Bingaman as
a possible choice.  He could be valuable on the energy issue.  And apparently McCain is vetting Eric Cantor (Jewish, VA but unknown outside his state).

I'm still hoping for Hillary.  How do you make up
the deficit among Democrats?

by esconded 2008-08-02 03:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I think the Keynote means that she is off the table. Too bad. She is such a huge political talent.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:09PM | 0 recs
the keynote means nothing

and is not written in stone. This could easily be a fake-out so the story isn't about Hillary Clinton until he nominates someone. Dick Cheney was the guy who was supposed to pick Bush's VP, which after should have "meant" he wasn't gonna be VP. WRONG. Bush Sr. gave a keynote address before the 1980 GOP convention, when everyone still thought Ford was gonna be it. Well I hope people thought again. This keynote address thing means nothing.

by Lakrosse 2008-08-02 05:31PM | 0 recs
Hillary Would Mean Nothing To Obama

Unless He Totally Changed His Campaign To Let Her Attack!

Hillary would have found a way to call McCain a senile old coot by now. She wouldn't let a day go by without launching another attack ad on "my good friend John McCain."

That might be more fun for Democrats (me included), but not necessarily better.

But, it would mean a total reversal of his entire election strategy which is focused on non-traditional Red states: picking up Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, New Mexico, Nevada and Iowa. In all of these he's either narrowly trailing or leading. Picking Hillary would sink him in most of these.

Hillary's campaign would be all about Ohio, Florida and Arkansas. Adding those three states would pick up 58 electoral votes, so even subtracting Michigan and New Hampshire from Kerry's 252 leaves (310 - 21 EV = 289 EV).

But you have to run a completely different campaign to secure them. Obama might win Ohio, but Florida is out of reach and Arkansas so far out of reach as to be in orbit.

He would need to let her loose on McCain. If she's bound and gagged and forced to take the "high-road" it's pointless to take the hit of choosing her in the first place.

Never going to happen in a million years.

by Cugel 2008-08-02 08:26PM | 0 recs
Re: the keynote means nothing
I agree with Lakross. Clinton is still in this.
In my opinion he will choose Clinton or Biden.
by Politicalslave 2008-08-03 01:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

The most logic non-name never seems to come up. It seem quite obvious a surprise is coming. And it seems quite obvious the surprise is Obama's first big time mainstream supporter. Someone with experience both in foreigh affairs nd the economy. And government. And is still an outsider. Today anyway.

TOM DASCHEL

by ObamaNation 2008-08-03 05:58AM | 0 recs
i think its gonna be sebelius

even though im not happy about it.

by omar little 2008-08-02 03:44PM | 0 recs
Re: i think its gonna be sebelius
Sebelius buys him nothing.
It makes no sense.
by demwords 2008-08-02 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: i think its gonna be sebelius

Boy, I hope she doesn't get it.

As the diary said, Obama has enough on his hands just introducing himself.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I think there very well could be a surprise.  So what if Clinton is scheduled to keynote? It's not as if that's impossible to change.

That said, I think Clinton as vp is unlikely in large part because of Bill's business dealings.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I've been thinking there may be another surprise this week in the form of a prominent Obacan endorsement.  

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

My boyfriend was saying that exact same thing today.
He thinks it will be Colin Powell for the following reasons:

1)Obama and Hillary are going on their bus tour in Ohio so that will dominate a few days.

2)Powell comes out and denounces McCain and his tactics so if the media gets bored with the bus tour they have Colin to talk about.

3)The Olympics start in six days and it sucks all the oxygen out of McCains free media gimmicks. The media hates Hillary but loves to focus on her and combined with a Powell endorsement, McCain will be lucky if he gets ANY media coverage before the debates(he can't get his negative message out).

by sweet potato pie 2008-08-02 04:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Powell is the name that's come to my mind as well. I wouldn't be surprised if McCain's antics push Powell to do this.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 05:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
I hope you are right. I would love to see Powell
go after McCain.
by Politicalslave 2008-08-03 01:22AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Choice

Actually choosing Powell as a VP might be a good strategy for McCain.  In fact, if I were McCain, I think that's who I'd pick.

by LIsoundview 2008-08-03 02:45AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Choice

Powell wouldn't be on a McCain ticket.

Powell supports Obama.

by lojasmo 2008-08-03 03:43AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Choice

Powell didn't like Bush much, and took a job in his cabinet.

If offered the job, I don't think he'd say no.  In which case, he wouldn't be endorsing Obama.

Which for McCain, would be a double plus.

by LIsoundview 2008-08-03 03:50AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Choice

I think what he learned from serving in Bush's cabinet is that taking offers with people you have fundamental disagreements with is a bad idea. Lest you forget, not only did they tarnish his name, they made him into a bad guy and all but fired him. John McCain once showed signs he would not behave that way, but no longer.

by vcalzone 2008-08-03 05:29AM | 0 recs
Do you have confirmation

of that bus tour?  I cannot find any information about it.  Would they be doing joint townhalls together?

by Blazers Edge 2008-08-02 05:40PM | 0 recs
If it was Powell I would barf my guts out.
I would turn inside out in disgust. But it will never be. Obama might accept, with little comment, his endorsement --- maybe. Encourage him to go the route of Scott McClelland, explaining and delineating the lies he was party to, the deception he foisted on the world, the unnecessary slaughter he created with his deceptions. Then I would hope Obama could fulsomely accept his participation in the prosecution of war crimes, until then I would hope, that the democratic party, and the Obama campaign would have little to do with him. BTW on his lies to the world, no one outside the U.S. believed him. Even Blair's government knew they were fabrications as the Downing Street Memos reveal, and the millions marching all over the world demonstrate that the lie was obvious to others.
by Exiled 2008-08-03 05:36AM | 0 recs
Re: If it was Powell I would barf my guts out.

It's funny, anytime Powell's name is brought up as a potential endorser/veep for Obama, everyone always mentions his speech in front of the U.N. promoting the Iraq War as a disqualifying factor.  Yet other candidates for vp like Evan Bayh and Joe Biden are taken very seriously and their votes in favor of the Iraq War are never even brought up.

Despite being one of the top 3 or 4 people in the world most responsible for making the Iraq War happen, choosing Powell for vp would at least have some major PR value in a "reaching across the aisle" sense.  That alone would make him preferable to Evan Bayh IMHO.

by Will Graham 2008-08-03 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: If it was Powell I would barf my guts out.
Voting based on documents that were, as Scott McClelland and others have exposed, is different from, knowingly spreading those false statements, cherry picked fabrications and distortions. It is one thing to say, "really? this is what's happening?" then voting, trusting the source, and being the source of the fabrications. And Powell has said he knew "at least some" of the facts he peddled were lies.
by Exiled 2008-08-03 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Who would be endorsing? Powell?

by Politicalslave 2008-08-03 01:12AM | 0 recs
I agree.

He's been pulling her down since last fall.

by psychodrew 2008-08-02 05:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Evan Bayh is my prediction.

Clinton is out of the running.

by lori 2008-08-02 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

On the Veepwatch front, nothing's on Obama's schedule yet, but the traveling press registration e-mail has us flying to South Bend at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and not leaving until 3:25 p.m. the next day.

It seems seems like an awfully long time to be in one place. (Where exactly is Evan Bayh?)
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/08/02/1243444.aspx

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 03:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I don't believe he is going to go the road of shoring up his " weakness " by picking a long term member of washington .

Bayh is half way in between fresh face and insider , he can help in Indiana and helps some with the clinton folks.

by lori 2008-08-02 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

A random thought on this one, but there's been some speculation that Obama may pick from "the field", i.e. someone not receiving major (if any) play on Intrade, Rasmussen Markets, etc.

With this news, I think its worth mentioning that former Indiana Congressman and 9/11 Commission Member Tim Roemer is a South Bend native and received his M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Notre Dame.

Roemer, who has solid national security credentials along with a pro-life voting record, is a strong Obama backer and had been mentioned as a dark horse VP possibility.

by Practical Progressive 2008-08-02 05:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Roemer is Catholic and is the president of a national security think tank that just gave awards to Joe Biden and Brent Scowcroft.  Previous presidents of that think tank include three former U.S. Secretaries of State, Madeleine Albright, Edmund Muskie and Cyrus Vance.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_ National_Policy

http://www.cnponline.org/

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 05:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Roemer falls into the category of someone who could help Obama govern and he's between being an insider and an outsider. Here's some personal information.

Tim Roemer married Sally Johnston in 1989 and they have four children: Patrick, Matthew, Sarah and Grace. They attend St. Thomas a' Becket Catholic Church and live in Great Falls, Virginia.  Roemer enjoys coaching his children's basketball teams, reading history and biography, playing sports, and collecting old, used first edition books.
http://www.cnponline.org/ht/d/sp/i/1321/ pid/1321

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice (and an anti choice VP? No.)
Come on.
by Exiled 2008-08-03 05:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Except the gov is a repug and that flips a seat. And it looks like Indiana is already running strong for Obama.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I could live with Bayh, and it hurts McCain in a state he should be able to count on otherwise.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

surprise.

by QTG 2008-08-02 03:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

My gut has been saying Biden all along.  Obama is remarkably gaffe-free and that would be a major concern with Biden, but assuming he can avoid putting his foot in his mouth, he is a pretty straight talker for a senator and checks enough foreign policy boxes to shore up some skittish undecided voters.  And most of all, I think he easily passes the god-forbid-but-he-could-be-president test, which after all should be the threshold measure.  

by snowback 2008-08-02 03:55PM | 0 recs
1988 plagiarism scandal

Any concerns about that with Biden?  Even though an insider, he's my second choice along with Gen. Clark.  He would be great in attacking McCain.  Not so sure about that with Bayh.

by esconded 2008-08-02 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: 1988 plagiarism scandal

I agree. Bayh seems to nice. Biden and Clinton would be good attack dogs.

by Steve24 2008-08-02 04:08PM | 0 recs
Re: 1988 plagiarism scandal

I think the teeth have been taken out of the plagiarism issue after the dem primary this year.  I don't think McCain wants to be digging up scandals from the 1980s or he is going to get hit in the mouth with Keating -- which he should anyway.  Biden is a tough and sharp surrogate and has the same kind of straight talking tone as McCain, which could be an effective response tool.  Main drawback is that he doesn't help deliver any states.

by snowback 2008-08-02 04:12PM | 0 recs
We should be hitting him in the mouth

with Keating anyway

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:05PM | 0 recs
Picture a debate with Romney vs Biden...

Biden put the final nail in Rudy with  ( "...a noun, a verb and 911.")

Even if Joe may have borrow a line or two, his delivery is effective and from the gut. His heat is a good counter balance to Obama's coolness.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Picture a debate with Romney vs Biden...

I like Biden a lot. He can twist the rhetorical knife with a smile.  And he did a fabulous job in leading in passing the Violence Against Women Act.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 05:28PM | 0 recs
Not Biden

Two plagiarists on the ticket would be too much.   Ouch.

Actually I think that Biden would be a good choice, and that the plagiarism charges are not big deals in the general scheme of things.  

But I think it will be Bayh

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Not Biden
Plagerists hahah what silly stuff. No one cares--of course. No one should, of course.

We have an economy collapsing, we have Republican corruption pouring billions out of the treasury, we have global warming, we have good paying jobs exported and replaced with WalJobs and McJobs, we have an illegal war on Iraq, we have 4 dollar gas and an auto sector collapsing because it wont give up on gasoline, we have hypocrisy, collapsing bridges and "Family Values Crusaders"(TM) molesting Senate pages, we have 47 million Americans without healthcare, veterans sleeping under bridges and a geriatric old man pretending he still has the capacity to remember the names of countries he is "an expert in", we have schools acting as holding pens, food covered in salmonella, mercenaries and war profiteers:

but voters are going to be upset with the fact that speeches calling for and describing solutions are "all too similar."
by Exiled 2008-08-03 05:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Not Biden
Since they all use speechwriters they are all plagarists to some degree anyway. Even Obama, who can write, uses speechwriters.
JFK had Sorenson write a whole book for him.
by demwords 2008-08-03 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: 1988 plagiarism scandal

If Obama's going to pick someone who voted for the Iraq War as Biden and Bayh both did--which would be a huge mistake in my view--he might as well go with Hillary.  At least he could sell the choice as a "unifying the party" move.

How is Obama going to convince voters that his judgment in opposing the Iraq War means anything when his own vp freakin' voted for it?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 06:48PM | 0 recs
Re: 1988 plagiarism scandal

That isn't a General election issue.  It won him the primary and its done.  

by dtaylor2 2008-08-02 10:23PM | 0 recs
Re: 1988 plagiarism scandal

I seriously doubt anyone cares about plagiarism. This is the age of the internet. Everything gets plagiarized.

by vcalzone 2008-08-02 08:37PM | 0 recs
Re: 1988 plagiarism scandal

Plagiarism doesn't seem to be much of a concern any more.  Heck Obama and Patrick's speech borrowing is closer to plagiarism than what Biden did in 1988.  

The problem in 1988 is that he didn't launch a great defense against the bs plagiarism charge--but in 1988, there was no alternative press/media/blogosphere to back him up, either.

by LIsoundview 2008-08-03 02:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Biden, please.

by danIA 2008-08-02 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Over the past week, I kept thinking---'If Biden were the VP candidate, how would he swat down McCain?'  Biden often cuts through the baloney and gets to the meat of the discussion.  There is no one McCain could pick that could rival Biden's experience and tenacity.

by Marie Smith 2008-08-02 07:06PM | 0 recs
Biden

Biden's smack down of Guiliani was masterful..I'd love to see him out there doing the same to McCain.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2007/10/30 /biden-rudys-sentences-c_n_70509.html

"And the irony is, Rudy Giuliani, probably the most underqualified man since George Bush to seek the presidency, is here talking about any of the people here. Rudy Giuliani... I mean, think about it! Rudy Giuliani. There's only three things he mentions in a sentence -- a noun, a verb, and 9/11. There's nothing else! There's nothing else! And I mean this sincerely. He's genuinely not qualified to be president."

by LIsoundview 2008-08-03 02:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Biden will make some mistakes but he is so passionate that it's worth it.

by Politicalslave 2008-08-03 01:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
I pray to god that it is Hillary. Please Barack put Hillary as VP.
This ticket will mean victory and that is all I care about.
by W126 2008-08-02 03:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Hillary is a great talent...but I think giving her the keynote means that she is out of the running. I suspect that's Bill's finances around the library might be compromising.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

That IS true. If they were being objective and looking at finances, I'm sure Bill has been up to some manner of scoundrelry since he left office.

by vcalzone 2008-08-02 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I opposed Hillary during the primary run, but I have to admit that she is an extremely polished campaigner and would make a very effective attack dog as well.  I have no doubt she would win the vp debate hands down.

If Obama and Hillary could keep Bill under wraps, I would probably advise him to wait until the first day of the convention and then surprise everyone by announcing Hillary as veep.  I'm sure the DNC crowd would absolutely eat it up.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
Yes which is why he should choose Senator Clinton.
If he announced this at the convention it would be game over for the Republicans. Can you imagine the excitement it would generate?
by Politicalslave 2008-08-03 01:26AM | 0 recs
No way it can be Hillary unless the Clinton's

come clean on their finances, and ARE clean.  

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Personally, I don't want her to take that thankless job.  OTOH, if Obama really cared about the country, about solving problems, he wouldn't consider anyone else.  He'd ask her and give her a serious portfolio and let her run with it.

Additionly, he could actually win with her.  Without her it's a tossup.

by Tolstoy 2008-08-02 06:00PM | 0 recs
My Guess Has Been Biden Too

...his sharp critiques of the Iraq policy, his independence, his working class catholic roots, his brilliance all seem to be factors that will align with Obama. He is an DC guy, but hasn't gotten rich by doing it. He's got a great personal story.

I also think that there is a natural synergy between these two.

by demwords 2008-08-02 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: My Guess Has Been Biden Too

Obama has spent the past year saying that Hillary's foreign policy experience didn't mean squat because she voted for the Iraq War and therefore had poor judgment.  Wouldn't he look like a hypocrite if he chose a vp who voted for the war as well--as Biden did?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:03PM | 0 recs
Re: My Guess Has Been Biden Too

Biden did express regret for his AUMF vote, something Clinton has never done.

Clinton's place on the ticket would create a serious dissonance in that regard. Choosing someone like Clark who also opposed the war would put the ticket in perfect synch.

But a choice like Biden would effectively split the difference, welcoming aboard someone who's since been able to admit the mistake. That strikes me as the kind of message Obama might want to send, both to Washington and to the country.

by BobzCat 2008-08-02 09:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

First of all I think we are close to an endorsement from Colin Powell.  

In regards to VP, I think it is asking US citizens enough to accept voting for a black man for the first time for President ... to add a woman in the mix as VP is just asking too much and is TOO much change.

I think it is Bayh or Kaine.

by Monkei 2008-08-02 04:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

You may be right. After all, how many times did we see Obama roll out a very well timed endorsement? Powell and Hagel together, talking about Obama's judgment and leadership, would be so great to see - and would so deflate McCain.

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 05:30PM | 0 recs
Gut Says Biden, Brain Says Bayh, Heart says . . .

Bob Graham, former FL Senator. I would rather see him on the ticket than either of the other two, but the clues point to either Biden or Bayh. The flight scehdule provided above may be the clincher.

by Davidsfr 2008-08-02 04:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Gut Says Biden, Brain Says Bayh, Heart says .
But what is in Graham's spiral notebooks?
I think that he might have some mental health issues that would exclude him. Even though I like him.
by demwords 2008-08-02 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Gut Says Biden, Brain Says Bayh, Heart says .

As they say "go with your gut."

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:45PM | 0 recs
Biden and Bayh both Voted for the War

Do you think Obama's "judgment over experience" argument will be muddled by the fact that both Joe Biden and Evan Bayh voted for the Iraq War?

Shoot, Bayh even joined a pro-Iraq War propaganda group which included John McCain, Joe Lieberman, and William Kristol.  I think it's fair to say that choosing Bayh for veep would send a very mixed message to voters.  I mean, really, how many times has Obama said that the Iraq War "should not have been authorized"?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Gut Says Biden, Brain Says Bayh

They both sound good to me.

Bayh could bring a state that McCain would otherwise not have to worry about, tho.

That's something to think about.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:30PM | 0 recs
No Wes Clark?

OK, I've liked Ed Rendell since I got familiar with him in the primaries.  He was a bull-dog of a fighter for his candidate, and stayed out of the mud but short of that pulled no punches whatsoever (which is precisely why he drove us Obama supporters so crazy).

I like the guy.  He's got meat-hooks for hands and blue collar appeal and you could see him buying the next round, telling the best jokes, and knocking senseless someone who raised a hand against one of his friends before they had time to hear the wind of his fist.  He'd go over like free beer in the heartland.

Richardson I like, but call me a wilting lily but even I am afraid that the first black guy and the first latino may be asking too much of the American voters all in one bite.  Same, perhaps, with any female candidate.

Mostly I'd like someone who is the answer to the most pressing concerns the undecided fence-sitters have.  Someone reassuring, solid and experienced.  Or at the very least, completely non-contenscious.

-chris

by chrisblask 2008-08-02 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: No Wes Clark?

I like Rendell too..and it puts Florida back in play and helps in Ohio  too. I don't see the chemistry that Obama would have with Biden,

Richardson has a bit of a skirt chasing problem...which is still a bit under the radar...but it wouldn;t stay that way.

The latin is a plus, but the other issue rules him out.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: No Wes Clark?

No, Rendell can't be it. McBush would use an ad with him standing behind Hillary bobbing his head, during her "Shame on you Barack Obama" meltdown.

by venician 2008-08-02 04:27PM | 0 recs
Re: No Wes Clark?

bobblehead was Strickland of Ohio.

by parahammer 2008-08-02 04:31PM | 0 recs
Re: No Wes Clark?
I'm just thinking all roads are leading to Biden at the moment.
...and on the other side Romney.
by demwords 2008-08-02 04:41PM | 0 recs
Re: No Wes Clark?

Also, isn't there video of Rendell introducing and them praising Louis Farrakhan.  Obama doesn't need anymore Nation of Islam stories.

by lamh3176 2008-08-02 07:32PM | 0 recs
Re: No Wes Clark?

Rendell would be a problem, unless Obama thinks Pennsylvania will be "iffy."

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Bayh or Sebelius, unless he surprises us with a turnaround and picking Clinton.

I don't think he'll pick Biden or Kaine, as both of those have negatives within the Democratic party and he needs to hold the base. Kaine -- who is not pro-choice -- could be the last straw for Clinton supporters.

by Coral 2008-08-02 04:18PM | 0 recs
What negatives does Biden Have...

...with dems? I dispute that strongly. He has been a vocal opponent when Obama and Hillary were shrinking from the fight. He has dedicated his life to doing good...except for the bankruptcy bill...but he is from Delaware.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:24PM | 0 recs
Re: What negatives does Biden Have...

"Senator MBNA."

He was an early and vocal supporter of the bankruptcy bill, and has generally been as business-friendly as any good Republican.

With that in mind, I still think he's the best choice. He's awesome (and always has been) on foreign policy, he'll give the businesspeople a bit more reason to sit this one out, and he'll put McCain in a really bad comparative light thanks to his vigor and intelligence.

by dal20402 2008-08-02 05:04PM | 0 recs
Re: What negatives does Biden Have...

Yeah. I already captured that one in my post. Even though he can't be MBNA anymore since it was sold to B of A. But Delaware is the incorporate state for banks.

by demwords 2008-08-02 05:11PM | 0 recs
Re: What negatives does Biden Have...

What about the fact that Biden voted for the Iraq War?  Do you think that will distract from Obama's message of change?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: What negatives does Biden Have...

He's an ego-driven, long-winded, blow-hard who has spent most of his career protecting the banking and credit card industries. Other than that, he's golden!

by LakersFan 2008-08-02 05:06PM | 0 recs
Re: What negatives does Biden Have...
Like I said, other than that he's golden.
Obama's got his Goldman Sachs pals in droves...
...but that isn't stopping progressives from supporting him.
by demwords 2008-08-02 05:12PM | 0 recs
Re: What negatives does Biden Have...

It stops me from being enthusiastic about him. And Biden would make me even less enthused.

by LakersFan 2008-08-02 05:28PM | 0 recs
i think it's between

Biden, Kaine and hopefully Clark.

Honestly, if it were going to be Hillary than I think they would have already announced it.

by highgrade 2008-08-02 04:19PM | 0 recs
What is the fascination with Bayh?

Man I would be so fucking disappointed if he were the choice. We need a pitbull for a VP - someone who is going to every state in the union and rip McStain a new one with every speech. We don't need some guy who has been auditioning for the spot for the last 10 years. No more political dynasty types.  

by highgrade 2008-08-02 04:21PM | 0 recs
Re: What is the fascination with Bayh?

Don't forget about this:

The Committee for the Liberation of Iraq (CLI) is pleased to welcome Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) as an Honorary Co-Chairman. Bayh becomes the third U.S. Senator to join the committee after Sens. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced their participation on January 28.

I think this would muddle Obama's message of "changing the mindset that got us into the Iraq War".

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: What is the fascination with Bayh?

Hillary supporter.

Good resume.

Indiana.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

On the surprise front, I still really want it to be Napolitano. As the hugely popular democratic governor of McCain's home state she'd be a great shot across the bow, and her only baggage seems to be that she's single, which I'm really hoping the American people could get the hell over.

by Cincinnatus 2008-08-02 04:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

It's always the single=gay meme at work.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

...yeah..
Just wondering...
Edwards has not disqualified himself..
(and he more than others has staked out an area=poverty that he could focus on)

That aside...
A female progressive who maintains popularity as Gov
in fucking Kansas...

by nogo postal 2008-08-02 04:31PM | 0 recs
Sebelius will do nothing for him

She won't even be able to carry her own state in the GE for him and it will leave Kansas, and all the Democratic gains there, in a shambles.

by dcrolg 2008-08-02 04:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Damn I wish it was Hillary!! If not I hope is Joe!  Biden that is.  We need to unite!

by nzubechukwu 2008-08-02 04:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

What is interesting is seeing how strong the feelings are for it being Biden across a wide array of opinions. Sometimes ...there is wisdom in mobs.

by demwords 2008-08-02 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

How would Obama explain away Biden's vote in favor of the Iraq War?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Unless somehow I forgot the past three or four years, Biden has been the toughest critic of the Bushies and particularly Cheney. Go back and check. Certainly more critical than Bayh, who slept walked through the past 3 or 4 years. No one in the serious pack voted against the war. Even Obama voted to fund it every time but the last time.

Joe has the strong bona fides as a war critique...and given his temperment, it was not polite senatorial civil-dribble.

by demwords 2008-08-02 07:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I don't know, I think Biden would be vulnerable to attacks of being yet another typical Johnny-Come-Lately flip-flopping political opportunist.

You don't see it that way, though?  

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

"Biden's not setting policy, I am."

"He's helping me carry it out and he is the most qualified Democrat for that job."

"I don't want my administration filled with yes men. That's what's wrong with the current administration."

yadda, yadda, yadda.

GW Bush called Reagan's economic proposals "voodoo economics," and they still won how many states?

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I don't know.  I'm still skeptical.  If Obama wanted to go the elder-statesman-with-lots-of-gravitas-an d-FP-experience route, why not go with former Senator Bob Graham or former Congressman Lee Hamilton?  They both check that particular box and wouldn't have Biden's Iraq War vote baggage.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:06PM | 0 recs
My gut tells me

that Obama is in serious trouble.  He has already damaged his "brand," by moving away from the change message (FISA, offshore drilling, etc.)

My gut tells me he needs to pick someone who is seasoned, battle-tested, and conversant with international and military issues.  Of the names suggested that would mean Clinton, Biden, Dodd and maybe Richardson.

What he doesn't need is a candidate who is going to elicit widespread moans and cries of "Who???"  

by Radiowalla 2008-08-02 04:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
We know Clinton is out since she has the keynote.
Dodd is out because the gov of Conn is a repug.
Richardson has a reputed skirt chasing problem.
That leaves only Biden on your list.
by demwords 2008-08-02 04:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Biden's plagiarism enhances the Obama's not ready tact giving McCain the ability to attack Biden and then direct that at Obama and focus on the you can't trust what they say how would you let them run the government theme.

Clinton on the other hand cancels that out because people think well it wasn't so bad when She did run the government...

by dtaylor2 2008-08-02 10:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Why do people care about plagiarism? And according to Wikipedia, didn't he actually just forget to cite the source one particular time that happened to be filmed? If this "scandal" happened today, there'd be video evidence exonerating him.

by vcalzone 2008-08-03 05:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

And besides all of that, just.... why would you think anyone cares about plagiarism as a campaign issue? When done 20 years ago? Bush snorted coke and was a multiple drunk driver. Nobody cared because it was old news.

by vcalzone 2008-08-03 05:33AM | 0 recs
Wes Clark is a standout

He knocks McCain off his game.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-08-02 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Wes Clark is a standout

Personally I think this guy is a charm...but he is very green when it comes to real campaigning.

by demwords 2008-08-02 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Wes Clark is a standout

Wes Clark did actually win a state primary in 2004, which is more than Biden and Bayh put together.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Wes Clark is a standout
If I remember that was Oklahoma and it wasn't much of a contest.
I like Clark, but he doesn't have the political chops to do battle in this field.
by demwords 2008-08-02 07:47PM | 0 recs
Re: Wes Clark is a standout
Actually Clark is pretty good at the type of campaigning we are talking about.
This is surrogate campaigning. Not look at me, look at my boss. Clark does that pretty well.
I find it funny that people dump on him for the Shot Down stuff in the same week Obama's Dollar Bill became the race card.
by Judeling 2008-08-02 08:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

My gut says Clark, and I would not be disappointed with that.  

I think Hillary took herself out (to Obama privately). I don't think Obama eliminated her, and I think she would be a great choice if it were to be.  Of course, that is just my hunch.  I have no proof such a conversation took place.

by NJIndependent 2008-08-02 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Not that anyone cares but....

MY LIST FOR OBAMA'S VP (IN ORDER OF MY FAVORITES)

1. HR Clinton

  1. Richardson
  2. Clark
  3. Edwards
  4. Dodd
  5. Sebelius
  6. John McCain

J/k on number seven, but wouldn't that be hilarious?  Kind of a big "f**k you" to everyone.  I really didn't care much for Clinton until somewhere around the Texas primaries, but she really grew on me.  Richardson has always been a good VP choice, IMO; shoring up the Latino/a vote especially out West.  Clarks' no wimp and would really clean someone's clock in a VP debate.  Edwards was my favorite going into it but I'm just not sure if he'd be baggage as a VP nominee left-over.  Dodd got my attention with his stand over FISA and seemed like a pretty reasonable guy during the early debates.  I don't know Sebelius very well, but she's a governor of a pretty important state and people on this blog tell me she's a progressive too.

WHO DO I THINK OBAMA WILL ACTUALLY NOMINATE?

1. Clinton

  1. Sebelius/Kaine
  2. Clark

Everyone else has about 10% in my highly un-scientific analysis.

by jlars 2008-08-02 04:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

" I don't know Sebelius very well, but she's a governor of a pretty important state and people on this blog tell me she's a progressive too. "

- Why is Kansas a pretty important state ?

What's the matter with Kansas ?

lol

by lori 2008-08-02 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Edwards, Edwards, Edwards. He doesn't cost a senate seat, and he brings a certain gravitas/perspective that reinforces Obama but is still differentiated from him. Oh, and if the rumors were true, don't you think Faux News would be blasting it 24/7?

by onlinesavant 2008-08-02 05:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

As an Edwards supporter since 2002 I would welcome that. But I am curious about what happened and why he hasn't fought back.

Some of things connected with this make no sense.

If it were true why would he create a living DNA trail right when he has prepping a run for prez. Makes no sense.

Why the BH Hotel? The least discrete location is all of LA outside of the Venice Boardwalk. Makes no sense.

Why hasn't he struck back. Makes no sense.

In terms of electoral calculus Obama/Edwards would be game over for the repigs.

I wish I knew what was going on.

by demwords 2008-08-02 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Oh, and if the rumors were true, don't you think Faux News would be blasting it 24/7?

I think this is only because John Edwards isn't currently an office-holder or a candidate for office--in other words, he's just a regular private citizen.

If Obama chose Edwards as his vp, this story would absolutely explode in the MSM.  There's no way Obama would want to take on that kind of baggage.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:24PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Disagree. Edwards is a well known Democrat, and that being the case, the corporate owned media (Especially Faux News.) would JUMP at the chance to expose some sort of perceived hypocrisy.

by onlinesavant 2008-08-03 05:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Edwards is poison at the moment. Rumors of a love baby are just rumors, but still, they are in the newspapers. POISON.

by shellius 2008-08-03 03:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Still up for a cabinet spot, though.

by vcalzone 2008-08-03 05:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

My gut still says Clinton,.

Biden would be a most ironic one, as he was the first to suffer the 'race card' at Obama's presence in the process. I don't see it, I mean, Biden has been in DC for like 4 decades.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-08-02 05:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Clinton seems like a no brainer but you would have to get a new gut because it won't be her and I don't think she was ever seriously considered .

He basically ran against everything she " supposedly represented " in the primary , I don't see him putting her on the ticket .

I believe Clinton not being on the ticket is an integral component if the mccain campaigns road to victory including Ohio and Michigan , which makes Romney his VP.

by lori 2008-08-02 05:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

When you're running on a message of "change" as someone who represents the future, it's going to be hard to bring on board someone who's most strongly identified with the sucesses of the past.

Clinton undercuts Obama's message on that front, as well as on the war. That's two strikes. I don't see her even being offered a third pitch. I could be wrong, but I think it's a gamble, despite her success in the primary.  

by BobzCat 2008-08-02 09:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

He ran against everything Clinton represented by inference, but it turns out he's more conservative than she is on a lot of things.  (FISA)  Clinton is now being described on AAR and elsewhere now as the populist candidate.  She could bring Obama back to the left and at the same time give him the appearance of being centrist like Bill Clinton was, just by her presence on the ticket. She doesn't even have to do anything.  

She'd be a winner for him, but I doubt he'll  pick her for the reasons you stated -- it goes against his perceived "change" theme.  She would actually put him over the top, which is important because this is going to be a close, close race.

by shellius 2008-08-03 03:10AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I'm not a big Hillary Clinton fan, but at this point I think she would be a solid vp candidate.  She would be a stay-on-message, gaffe-free campaigner and the DNC crowd would absolutely go crazy seeing the two of them standing together on stage.

But then there is always the long shadow of Bill...

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

He's really a curse for her, isn't he?

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Both a curse and a blessing, I would say...

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I think Bill's funding for the library might expose some unseemly contributors. I think that's the factor that sinks it.

Giving her the keynote. I think pretty well signals that it is not her.
Which is unfortunate since she is a champ when it comes to campaigning...and an ace on issues.

by demwords 2008-08-02 07:50PM | 0 recs
I wonder how much of a role she will play

campaigning.   Obama could use her and Bill (in the right setting in his case).   But my sense is that the Obama people haven't been helping her out with her debt all that much and that will impact her enthusiasm for campaigning on his behalf.

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I'm with Jerome on this one. My gut says he chose Clinton awhile back.

by Politicalslave 2008-08-03 01:44AM | 0 recs
Clark or Biden

With regards to the economy, energy, education, and health care Obama has a 10-20 point advantage. His goal has to be to try and level the national security/foreign policy shortcoming he has vis a vis McCain. I agree with BO on most of his foreign policy and when people are actually asked about the specifics, more people favor BO's positions than McSame's. The problem is that McCain is seen to ahve more gravitas.

Obama's VP choice has to be his #1 surrogate on this issue and use the VP debate to hammer this point home. The only ones who have strong credibility on this issue are Wesley Clark or Joe Biden who I'd like to see as VP. Sure Nunn does (but his social views are more Dixiecrat) and while Dodd would have been a good choice, I think that the Countrywide stuff would tag him.

I supported Obama through the primaries but I have always liked Hillary. I think she'd be the best VP candidate because she has national security credibility and she is more persuasive on economic issues than Obama. I think that the problem is Bill's library and financial dealings. And I think that some of what Hillary said against Obama would be fodder against him.

Kaine or Sebelius have no national security/foreign policy credentials. Kaine's got 50/50 approval numbers in VA and ran very weak in the western part of the state. I think Kaine and Sebelius don't really add much to the ticket. I think Bayh is better than either of them but he doesn't really go after his opponent.

Obama needs a pitbull -- Clark or Biden.

by chatters71 2008-08-02 05:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Clark or Biden

I would love to see Obama choose Clark as his veep because it would just be so darn delicious watching the elite Beltway pundits collapse on their fainting couches en masse.  Maybe he could simultaneously have a case of smelling salts delivered to the CBS studios as well (c/o Bob Schieffer).  

Man, what an F-You to the Establishment that would be!

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Clark or Biden

I think Obama has a 10-20 point disadvantage on ethnic cultural issues. Despite what people tell pollsters, the national security edge has been erased by 7 years of repugs getting everything wrong.

by demwords 2008-08-02 07:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Clark or Gary Hart

Clark or Gary Hart  , He's younger than McCain.  Too intellectual however.

by buffalo soldier 2008-08-02 08:46PM | 0 recs
Re: Clark or Gary Hart
Talk about a skirt chasing problem!!!
Hart was the first to public with it.
by demwords 2008-08-02 09:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Clark or Gary Hart

Just about the same time as MCCain.

by buffalo soldier 2008-08-03 03:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Clark or Gary Hart

Yeah. But McSame is one of theirs!!!

by demwords 2008-08-03 09:00AM | 0 recs
Clinton is by far the best pick

and the keynote address thing can easily be changed. Lanny Davis lays all the reasons out very well. I concur fully with him.

by Lakrosse 2008-08-02 05:36PM | 0 recs
Biden

My gut is saying 'Biden, please.'  Biden has solid progressive stances on most important issues, foreign policy creds up the wazoo, a good campaigning style and he's a charmer that could shore up the over 60 vote.

Although my gut also likes Clark (get off the fence, gut!)

by GFORD 2008-08-02 05:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Biden

Do you think Biden's vote for the Iraq War would hurt Obama's change message?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Biden

See my response to you above.

by BobzCat 2008-08-02 09:51PM | 0 recs
Maybe.

But I don't see Obama's change message as being about Iraq.  I see it as about special interests and lobbyists.  

by GFORD 2008-08-11 01:30AM | 0 recs
We don't want to lose Jeralyn's

suport by picking Biden.  I'm just joking but I really do like Jeralyn's post though talkleft has become a wasteland for people suffering from ODS.  Biden is a pretty polazrizing figure on the roots; the populist and criminal defense crowd hates him while the national security/foreign policy crowd loves him.

It's crazy how unifying a figure Clark is in the blogosphere, including the Obama crowd considering he wasn't gentle at all with Obama's foreign policy team during the primaries as I remember he had harsh words for Power and Rice.

The two best things about Wesley are that 1) it's personal between him and McCain and 2) he doesn't have a record on domestic and social issues so he can just adopt all of Obama's views.  It's striking how close Wes and Obama are on foreign policy, you would almost think supported Obama during the primary based on his foreign policy views.

by Blazers Edge 2008-08-02 05:50PM | 0 recs
Re: We don't want to lose Jeralyn's

I think Obama/Clark would easily be the Dems' strongest ticket since Clinton/Gore.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:43PM | 0 recs
Re: We don't want to lose Jeralyn's

They were never strong enough to win without a third party hurting the repigs. Hopefully, we'll do better and actually win a majority this time.

by demwords 2008-08-02 07:54PM | 0 recs
Not surprising

Since Clinton and Obama basically mimiced each others' policy positions and left it to a discussion about "fresh change" vs. "experience".  For the record "fresh change" won the contest 49 to 48.

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:19PM | 0 recs
I'd also short Biden and Clinton...

but go long on Bayh.

by BJJ Fighter 2008-08-02 05:51PM | 0 recs
Re: I'd also short Biden and Clinton...

Do you think Obama would have a difficult time explaining this?

The Committee for the Liberation of Iraq (CLI) is pleased to welcome Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) as an Honorary Co-Chairman. Bayh becomes the third U.S. Senator to join the committee after Sens. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) announced their participation on January 28.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:46PM | 0 recs
Not especially.

Everyone is falling all over themselves at this point to talk about how wonderful the surge is. Iraq will rank about fourth of fifth in terms of voter concerns this fall; at this point, it's all about the economy and energy. People vote their pocketbooks.

by BJJ Fighter 2008-08-02 08:47PM | 0 recs
Re: I'd also short Biden and Clinton...

I'd short Clinton and Bayh.

by demwords 2008-08-02 07:55PM | 0 recs
Obama should pick Bob Rubin.

This election is going to be about the economy. Plus, Rubin is Jewish, which doesn't hurt.

by Hesiod Theogeny 2008-08-02 05:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

excellent overalll post.

will be very disappointed if it's not Hillary. time for Obama to get serious: we need to win this election. she gives him the best shot at it. get real and do it, Barack.

my betting money, sadly, is on Biden (though I think he's ok)

by CalDem 2008-08-02 05:57PM | 0 recs
My gut tells me it will be Bayh, possibly Clinton.

But of the two, far more likely Clinton, for different strategic reasons than those most would give.

Obama has a problem with a part of the base, but it's not the C4O diehard blogger types.  The Harriet Christiansens out there are not going to decide this election.  There's a different part of the base that he would do well to watch out for, and that's the old guard party infrastructure die-hards, many of whom did vote for Clinton and may feel threatened by a campaign that seems to kick them to the curb.  It's not their votes that he has to fear losing, but their mechanical support in terms of party work and GOTV at a critical moment in the general election.  He may decide he needs to keep them on board with somebody that they consider part of the party inside.

And Bayh would fit that bill very well.  I say that as somebody who hates Evan Bayh and have personal emails to the DLC prove it.  Bayh, in particular, is an important part of the Clinton functionary base, the kind of person that would appeal to the Carvilles and Begalas, perhaps not so much to the Harriet Christiansens, but again, it's not the Harriets that can botch this election for him.

Furthermore, Evan Bayh is very ambitious.  Should Obama/Bayh lose in 2008 (not likely), we can well foresee that there will be a Bayh campaign in 2012, co-opting part of the Clinton machine in a succession struggle.  That's not good for Hillary's chances should any be hoping for Obama to lose and her to run in 2012.

I would much prefer Clark, also a Clinton insider, but Bayh, in particular, I think, would have this co-opting effect.  And should Obama win (most likely), Obama is less likely to be in a state of permanent contention with Clinton old-guard forces in the Democratic Congress if he can turn to his own veep for support without seeming to be yielding to an opposing faction.

by Dumbo 2008-08-02 05:57PM | 0 recs
Bayh, ugh

Please don't let it be Bayh:

Bayh would, to put it very charitably, muddle Obama's message. It's true that Bayh was said to have subsequently removed himself from the group. But Obama's campaign is partly about -- and rightly so -- the judgment he made, and others didn't, in the run-up to the invasion.

The McCain campaign and the Repubs would have a grand time mocking the choice. Indeed, the McCain camp is already trying to make an issue of Bayh's past.

"We know Obama isn't interested in the facts on the ground in Iraq, but one would think he'd at least be interested in the facts about those rumored to be at the top of his VP list.," McCain spokesperson Michael Goldfarb emailed us about Bayh. The Obama camp didn't immediately comment.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Bayh, ugh

Many winning tickets have had Presidents and Veeps who didn't see eye to eye on substanative issues.

That's what ticket balancing is all about.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:56PM | 0 recs
Re: Bayh, ugh

Yeah, I know but damn, it would be nice if the Dems could actually offer voters a clear choice and a clear alternative to the Republicans--especially when it concerns one of the top issues of the campaign.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:22PM | 0 recs
Perfect analysis

I agree w/your reasoning 100%.  Bayh's the guy (among the big names discussed - always possible for a dark horse to emerge).

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:21PM | 0 recs
Re: Perfect analysis

You don't think Bayh's agitating in favor of the Iraq War is a problem?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:24PM | 0 recs
I don't but based on the number of times

you posted the same comment, you clearly do!

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:36PM | 0 recs
Re: I don't but based on the number of times

True, I obsess but I believe it's a damn important distinction.  I think the key to winning for the Dems is to offer voters a very clear alternative to the Republicans.

I feel like not voting for the Iraq War should a litmus test issue for the veep, just like being pro-choice is a litmus test issue.

Look, I'm not saying Obama has to choose Dennis Kucinich or Michael Moore as his running-mate, but it seems to me there are plenty of very plausible candidates available who didn't vote for the war.  Why not go with one of them?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:44PM | 0 recs
Kucinich was my first choice

Though more for the fact that he is a fighter than his stance on the war.  

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:50PM | 0 recs
To me, war and torture are the two big issues,

BUT, I can compromise when it comes to Veep choice.  Veeps don't run the country.  And, honestly, if he has to pick somebody from the Clinton faction (I don't think so, but they may think so), then I would rather it was Bayh than Hillary.  At least with Bayh, we wouldn't have competing power factions in an Obama presidency.  

If the Obama campaign does not think it is a high priority to coddle the Clinton machinery, he might choose somebody who was against the war, like Clark, which I would vastly prefer for the same reasons as you.  But there is a complicated balancing act going on in this choice, and I'm willing to prepare myself to not be personally satisfied with it and just try to have faith in the strategy of their choice.

by Dumbo 2008-08-02 10:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Of all the names mentioned above, the only ones who excite me at all are Hillary Clinton, Kathleen Sebelius, Colin Powell and Ed Rendell. Biden, Richardson, and Dodd all have a tendency to bloviation that doesn't wear well, and Bayh is just boring.  Actually, Kathleen is kind of boring, too, but she and Obama seem to like each other and I think that would create some positive energy. Also, she's a really good, progressive governor who knows how to work with Republicans or stick it to them - whichever works best. I really like that about her. Colin Powell would be a hell of a choice - he's the only Republican Obama could pick who wouldn't make me not vote for him. If he picked Hagel he could kiss my vote goodbye. One could argue, I suppose, that Powell would put a dent in Obama's anti-war cred, but Powell seems to feel he was manipulated into advocating a war he now believes was a mistake. If he really came out and said that, I think he would actually add to Obama's strength in that area. I adore Ed Rendell - I've had a crush on him ever since the Florida recount, and I think he'd bring a lot of high-octane energy to the ticket. Of course, my first choice is Hillary, but I think the time to have picked her for maximum impact has passed. If Obama had picked her right after the Unity speech, the amazing symbolism of it would have meant we'd be coasting to victory right now, but I just think that moment has gone. So sad.

by Not the only Dem in KS 2008-08-02 06:04PM | 0 recs
My Gut is talking

and it says Rendell is the man. He makes the most sense of anyone in reality. He brings a lot of help in PA (and potentially neutralizes the choice of Tom Ridge,) he has a ton of administration experience is a big Clinton supporter, and a real pit bull.

Rendell is my choice.  

by JDF 2008-08-02 06:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

By the way, Politico is reporting that McCain is vetting Eric Cantor of VA, the only Jewish Republican in the House.  He's about Obama's age.

During his first term in office, Cantor was selected to serve as Chairman of the Congressional Task Force on Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare. He has also served on the House Financial Services Committee and on the House International Relations Committee and the very powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Since his second term, he has served as chief deputy Republican whip, the highest appointed position in the Republican caucus.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Cantor

by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 06:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
And here's the link to the Politico article
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/080 8/12264.html
by politicsmatters 2008-08-02 06:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

McCain picks him and he loses.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 07:59PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

The deal has already been cooked. The Bush family and the money repigs have already anointed Romney. Otherwise Mccann doesn't get access to the bundlers.

by demwords 2008-08-02 09:06PM | 0 recs
My gut thinks like your gut....

Yep...these are pretty much along my sentiments...but, I have to think there's at least one (possibly two) other person, that nobody's been mentioning frequently that these folks have front and center in their thinking, as well. I don't think it's Easley; perhaps Bob Graham. Maybe not...maybe someone like Bill Bradley.

But, I'd say Biden's at the top of the "real list" right now, maybe along with Clark, with both of them being the best pitbulls, save for Clinton, on the list. It's either one of these three, plus one or two others we aren't focusing upon...that's my gut.

And, my gut instincts are fairly decent when it comes to this type of thing...not awesome, but decent.

by bobswern 2008-08-02 06:31PM | 0 recs
Re: My gut thinks like your gut....

I think Bob Graham would be a very very solid choice, despite the age difference between he and Obama.

At least all the up-and-coming Dems would know that Graham wouldn't be a threat to run for president in 4 or 8 years.  In that sense, he'd be a lot like Cheney.  (Let's hope the comparisons end there though.)

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:54PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Wes Clark or Ed Rendell

I thought it might be Tim Kaine but he started blabbing so much, it must have been a head feint.

by cmpnwtr 2008-08-02 06:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Ed Rendell would lock up PA, which is pretty darn important, but I'm not too sure he'd be able to stay on message consistently.

It may be a moot point anyway, because I don't think Obama is even vetting him right now.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 07:57PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I never thought I'd say these two things, but (1) I agree with David Gergin that (2) Obama needs to rethink Hillary Clinton as a choice.  Not to appease the PUMA people.  He needs an attack dog, and she's the best.

And it's worth it for the theater.  None of the Republican choices are as dynamic as her, and it would fit in well with Obama's Lincoln cabinet theme.

I was absolutely not in this place a month ago, but if Hillary fends off the bullshit, Obama can stay above the fray and do what he does best.

And let the GOP be polarized.  It would be a glorious campaign!

by Drummond 2008-08-02 06:45PM | 0 recs
I say Hillary

And I wasn't one of her supporters.  However, I think he needs to wait until convention to announce it.

Look, the biggest issue on voters mind walking into the booth on November 5th is going to be "Will this person fix the economy?"  And while Obama is currently trusted more than McCain on the issue, he really needs to hammer the issue home.  He needs to remove the risk and make it a no-brainer for your average voter.

It also has the added advantage of forcing the Republicans to reboot their Obama strategy.  Right now it's to make this election into a referrendum on Obama.  Once you put Clinton in the picture, Republicans will be falling over themselves trying to attack her, knocking their Obama messaging off course, and force them to fight a negative battle on two fronts.  The sort of attacks that work against Obama don't work on Clinton, and the sort of attacks that work on Clinton don't work on Obama.  You can't lump them together and say "Well they're <blank>!" unless by <blank> you mean Democrats... in which case yes they are!  And that's a good thing to be in 2008.

by Homebrewer 2008-08-02 07:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Obama said recently, in one of those interviews he did at the end of the BigTrip, that his VP was going to be somebody who "would tell me if he got it wrong".  I didn't pay much attention to that at the time, but it was the first of like 3 things he said, and in saying it, he kind of smiled, like it was an understatement. Something coy and cute.  

And... wow.  I never in a million years thought I would be thinking this, but after all of you going on about the different people... how can that not be Clinton? (And I wanted it to be Biden SO much -he's the perfect attack dog!)...
I am going to have a lot of trouble with this personally, because from the get-go I never could stand her!  But I guess I like Obama too much to let a ... (gritting teeth) "little thing" like picking the Empress of the World as a VP choice... (still gritting, sweat pouring down my face)... to bother me... (eyes bloodshot and sore)... and, yes, (near collapse)... I'd still vote for my man Obama...

(under my breath)... but I won't be happy...

by soithoni 2008-08-02 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

But Biden wouldn't be a yes man, either, and Obama knows that.

That's why he goes to Biden for advice now.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 08:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

So no one here believes that Clinton on the ticket will energize Conservatives and turn off Independents. I mean she is certainly a good choice in terms of "experience", but the "clinton hatred" amongs Conservatives is real.  I live in Texas, so I work with a lot of Republicans, and during the Texas primary, many of them did not like McCain, so they were not going to waste their time voting, but the one thing that riled them up was the fact that if Obama wins, obviously Clinton would lose the nomination fight.  They can't stand her.  For completely unwarranted reasons in my opinion

by lamh3176 2008-08-02 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

sorry:  correct Obama quote to be:  somebody who "would tell me if I got it wrong."

by soithoni 2008-08-02 07:46PM | 0 recs
My gut's telling me I'm hungry

But besides that, it is screaming out "seasoned white male with foreign policy/security experience."  

This leads me to a few possibilitites.   Biden is one of them, but he is just so inside the beltway that I think it won't work.  There is Bayh, who has security experience and was a governor.  And it doesn't hurt that he is from the "Clinton camp."  My money's on him.  There is absolutely Clark.   And then there is Sam Nunn.   All fill in the background well.   But my money's on Bayh.  Successful Red State D gov, security experience in the senate.  Projects Presidential readiness.  Not exciting but "clean."  First rule of VP selections: do no harm.  I think that Bayh is the guy.    

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:01PM | 0 recs
Re: My gut's telling me I'm hungry

First rule of VP selections: do no harm.  I think that Bayh is the guy.

Not too sure about that:

The McCain campaign and the Repubs would have a grand time mocking the choice. Indeed, the McCain camp is already trying to make an issue of Bayh's past.

"We know Obama isn't interested in the facts on the ground in Iraq, but one would think he'd at least be interested in the facts about those rumored to be at the top of his VP list.," McCain spokesperson Michael Goldfarb emailed us about Bayh. The Obama camp didn't immediately comment.

"A lot has changed since 2003," Bayh communications director Eric Kleiman told TPM's Eric Kleefeld. "And Senator Bayh has acknowledged if we knew then what we know now, he wouldn't have cast that vote."

Not sure that'll be enough.

"And Senator Bayh has acknowledged if we knew then what we know now, he wouldn't have cast that vote."

John Kerry tried to thread that needle and it didn't work too well for him.  Just sayin'...
 

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:31PM | 0 recs
Yup. I hear your point

But I think that this issue alone doesn't disqualify him.  It did hurt Clinton in the primary, but I don't think it was the reason she lost.  Let's face it - a sizeable number of democrats voted to authorize force in Iraq.  I don't think it's a killer issue.  

by activatedbybush 2008-08-02 08:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Yup. I hear your point

Let's face it - a sizeable number of democrats voted to authorize force in Iraq.

True, but there were a lot of Dems who voted "no" on the war too.  There are some good solid veep candidates who didn't vote for the war (Kaine, Sebelius, Clark, Reed etc.) so why not go with one of them instead?  This is the issue that pushed Obama over the top against Hillary.  It's a winning argument for him and would be completely delegitimized by choosing Bayh as vp.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 08:52PM | 0 recs
Roll this around

From NBC's Mark Hudspeth and NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
On the Veepwatch front, nothing's on Obama's schedule yet, but the traveling press registration e-mail has us flying to South Bend at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday and not leaving until 3:25 p.m. the next day.

It seems seems like an awfully long time to be in one place. (Where exactly is Evan Bayh?)

Bayh's home town is near Terre Haute, Ind. -- about four-hour drive from South Bend. But South Bend is a nice geographical point between Illinois and Ohio, and just south of the Michigan line

Obama communications stretegist Robert Gibbs says all that shoudl be taken from it is that "Indiana is competitive and winnable for us," he said.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2 008/08/02/1243444.aspx

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 08:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

The last time Obama visited South Bend, here's who introduced him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NT2zQUxVE 2Y

My gut says South Bend native Tim Roemer.

by davisb 2008-08-02 08:11PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

A 9/11 commission member.

That wouldn't be bad.

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 08:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Roemer endorsed Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries and campaigned vigorously for him, particularly in his home state of Indiana, where he joined Lee H. Hamilton in support of Obama. Roemer's moderate, bipartisan politics, and national security experience have led to speculation (from Chris Cillizza and Ben Smith) that Roemer may be considered a possible vice presidential running mate for Obama. [1] [2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_J._ Roemer

by Bush Bites 2008-08-02 08:27PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I think its either Kaine or Bayh. With indications that McCain is leaning towards Rep. Cantor of Virginia, that could make Obama move towards Bayh, who has a lot of political experience and would satisfy conventional wisdom that Obama must choose a boring white guy. Obama probably feels most comfortable with Kaine, because Kaine is a lot like Obama. However, I think Kaine is a risky pick. With polls now showing that women are now getting behind Obama, I doubt he'll pick a woman.

As for Clinton, I don't think she ever was seriously in the running. Obama just doesn't feel comfortable with her.

My guess the list is: (1) Bayh, (2) Kaine, (3) Dodd, (4) Biden, (5) Hagel, (6) Rendell and (7) Salazar

by Zzyzzy 2008-08-02 08:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

kaine would be replaced by a repig lt. gov.
Bayh would be replaced by a repig senator.

Neither is worth it.

by demwords 2008-08-02 09:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Obviously, I think Obama would be more concerned with losing a senator than a governor.  Plus, VA's governor will hopefully only be a Republican for one year.  Most of that time he will be a lame duck.

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 09:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I also think that Kaine lacks the national heft that a Jim Webb would carry. I know that he is older than Obama, but some how he strikes me as being more of a kid. Not sure what it is about him.

Making the lt gov an incumbent, if even for a year in a swing state is a bad idea.

by demwords 2008-08-02 10:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Kaine lacks foreign policy experience, but he does bring other things to the table.  For example, he speaks fluent Spanish.  Don't discount how important this is and how endearing it would be to Hispanic voters.

Obama could send Kaine out to heavily Hispanic areas of New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Texas, Florida, drive up the the turnout among Latino voters and knock McCain's share of the Hispanic vote down to about 25 percent and win some crucial swing states with ease.

The Republican brand is toxic with Latinos right now, and I believe Obama could be poised to swamp out the Hispanic vote.

by Will Graham 2008-08-03 04:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

If it were really about latin votes and the southwest it would be Richardson, who is also a world player.

by demwords 2008-08-03 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I want to know how he thinks he can unify the party if Hillary Clinton is not the VP?

He is going to have days/weeks of backlash from that: supporters will be angry, loud, reporters will love it. It will be THE news.

He claims to be a uniter. Well?

Anyone he picks, if it's not hillary - everyone will say - then why not hillary?

If he picks Biden - DC insider, the story will be why not hillary?

If he picks Sebilus the story will be why not hillary?

No one can deliver so many votes as Hillary and no one deserves the spot more than her.

Otherwise -

she should fight on the convention floor for it.

by nikkid 2008-08-02 08:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Go away you ignorant little troll.

by yitbos96bb 2008-08-03 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

My gut says Biden, Dodd or Clark.  Of those Clark is my #1 fav, followed by Dodd then Biden.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-08-02 09:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Do you know if Clark has confirmed whether or not he has been asked to submit documents for vetting?

by Will Graham 2008-08-02 09:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Haven't seen anything either way.  That being said, people lie about it all the time.  That's why I don't think its Kaine... He was WAY too vocal about it in sharp contrast to the Obama campaign.  I think he was a distraction.

by yitbos96bb 2008-08-03 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

It won't be Dodd because it will cost a senate seat.

by demwords 2008-08-02 10:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Dems have a veto-proof majority in both CT houses so that could be fixed...

by micha1976 2008-08-03 01:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
That's being a bit pre-mature.
There are problem dems in the caucus including Nelson in Neb.. Lieberman and Nelson of Fl. We need 62.
by demwords 2008-08-03 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

A seat which would be won back very quickly.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-08-03 10:20AM | 0 recs
General Zinni

General Tony Zinni.  Please read "The Battle for Peace" and tell me you don't think this guy needs to be in the administration.

by Countificus 2008-08-02 10:23PM | 0 recs
Re: General Zinni

Clark is more multi-dimensional and a more appealing character.

by demwords 2008-08-02 10:42PM | 0 recs
Re: General Zinni

I heard his name put forth before.  That would be as surprising as Dick Cheney being picked.

by yitbos96bb 2008-08-03 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

For me Bayh or Clinton.

by Graham1979 2008-08-02 10:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice
It won't be Bayh because it would cost a senate seat.
And it won't be Hillary since they gave her the keynote slot.
by demwords 2008-08-02 10:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

I'm thinking Biden, Rendell, or Clinton.

Yes, Biden has foot-in-mouth disease and some old 80s muck-ups AND he voted for the war, but he's as sharp and effective a critic of the Bush/McCain foreign policy doctrine as we have.

Obama needs someone who can balance being an attack dog without looking like he's being dirty, and Biden is that man. He attacks, but on the issues. He argues points and ideas, he doesn't sling mud. Also, he's got a reassuring look to him that I think would make people more comfortable with Obama. He just looks like a serious dude.

Rendell -- I have to admit, as a jew, I like the secret jew angle. What I mean is, he's jewish, but doesn't really look or act or have a name that sounds Jewish. So racists don't know, but jewish voters in Florida do.
It's complete BS but this would probably allay a lot of fears of jewish voters with regard to Obama and Israel. I can't stand that my ethnic group is so pigheaded about this issue, but this would definitely help.

Hillary -- This is the riskiest and in some ways boldest choice. She may be too big a distraction and drive away more people than she brings it, but what I like about it is the explosion of it. Just imagine the energy when she's introduced. Imagine the feeling of the two of them together. Anyone McCain picked would pale in comparison. The star wattage of Obama/Clinton would completely flush McCain right off the stage. But I'm not actually sure that's a good thing. The election is already too much about Obama and not about McCain's terrible awful policies, so this might hide McCain's weaknesses ever more.

Also good: Picking her is the only way my mother will vote for Obama.

by Siguy 2008-08-02 11:43PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

My favorites so far on the merits are Schweitzer and Sebelius, not necessarily in that order.

If I were totally confident that Bayh could make at least 2% difference in Indiana and/or Ohio, I could be happy with him too. Likewise, if Richardson could be counted on to bring in Colorado and NM.

The ones I really don't like, regardless of their electoral vote advantages are:

Chuck Hagel
Tim Kaine
Sam Nunn
Ed Rendell
Ann Veneman

I like Biden, but don't think he'd help in the important states enough. We need serious help in either OH/IN/MO or in CO/NM/NV/MT or in VA/NC.

I don't suppose there's anyone who could be counted on to bring in Florida, but if there were ...

by obsessed 2008-08-02 11:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Siguy:Also good: Picking her is the only way my mother will vote for Obama.

In what state, pray tell, does dear old mum reside?

by obsessed 2008-08-02 11:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Oddly, I'm not too concerned about who Obama picks. Our bench is deep, and all the choices are good. Even the obscure option of Chet Edwards could be interesting:
http://www.newsweek.com/id/150485

But, the list probably looks like:
Biden
Bayh
Kaine
Clinton
Sebelius
Richardson
Dodd
Wes Clark
or
Chet Edwards
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chet_Edward s

(doesn't matter if the recent tabloid rumors are true or not about John Edwards, it's enough of a cloud to make him unlikely -- which is sad.)

Biden should help from PA, OH, and Michigan, as well as nationally. (He was born in Scranton, PA.) He should make for a great attack dog. The way he destroyed Rudy was impressive.

Dodd would be great, if not for the whole Countrywide problem. Plus, Obama probably doesn't need a New Englander.

Bayh is dull but, I suppose he'd help in Indiana. He's not my favorite, but he might have upside potential. He looks good on TV, for whatever that's worth.

Kaine may deliver VA, but he just doesn't seem like the right pick.

Sebelius is from Ohio, and reinforces the midwest, perhaps helps in MO as well. Could be strong. If she gets the nod, to smooth things over with HRC supporters she has to say, "I wouldn't be here in this position if it weren't for trailblazing women like Hillary Clinton."

HRC would be a pick that would be a surprise, and really could be really exciting. (I didn't support her in the primary, I voted for Obama.) I think the downside is the possibility of her husband making unfortunate and unscripted press comments. He's great when he's on message. When his anger gets the better of him, not so good. Upside for Hillary, is that she'd be great on the attack.

Richardson helps improve already great Obama numbers with Latinos. Maybe enough to help in Florida?  He certainly helps out west with NM, CO, MT, and the Dakotas, and possibly Alaska. (An A rating with the NRA.)

Chet Edwards may be a smart and nice guy, maybe he can even deliver Crawford? But unless he can deliver the whole state of Texas, I doubt he makes the cut.  

Wesley Clark would be interesting. Clearly he knows how to get under McCain's skin, so that's a plus.

Anyway, I think they're all pretty acceptable. There are no totally terrible Lieberman type picks... though Bayh or Kaine might be the hardest to sell.

That said, I'd bet on Biden, Bayh, or Sebelius.

But, I also expect to be surprised.

by LoganGawain 2008-08-03 01:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice

Evan Bayh is cute and better known than anyone else on that list except Hillary. Seriously, that's all it takes for him to "add something".  The people who would add the most to Obama's ticket would be Hillary and Biden and he probably won't choose them. Kaine would be a disaster because he's very religious, knows little of foreign policy and is against abortion. DISASTER. Frankly, I'm really sick of all the religion on politics lately. I wish he'd choose an atheist, or at least someone with some self-restraint in the religion department.

I hope in fact the he chooses Bayh or Sebelius.  It's good that people don't know much about them. It will keep the press busy covering Obama again.  Anyone well-known is going to eclipse Obama at this point and the press is just waiting to cover McCain,  The wild card could be Clinton because the press would go crazy over her too.  

My prediction of his timing -- the DAY AFTER McCain makes his VP announcement. Obama is really good at one-upping.

by shellius 2008-08-03 03:05AM | 0 recs
I hope it is Schweitzer

I just like to hear the guy talk.  He is a riot.

As long as it isn't Hillary Clinton I will be happy.  I don't think VP makes much difference but Hillary's negatives are so high they would bring Obama down.  I don't see much down side to any of the others except for Hagel.  We don't need a Republican on our ticket.  But again, I'd rather have Hagel than Clinton.  

by Blue Neponset 2008-08-03 04:24AM | 0 recs
Bayh might make sense politically

He might help to swing Indiana to Obama. From what I see, Obama has two paths to 270 +. Win Virginia or put together a string of small states like Montana, Colorado and Indiana. Although I do agree that he is a boring choice and am not sure if he will bring any bump in polls.

by ann0nymous 2008-08-03 04:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice


The most logic non-name never seems to come up. It seem quite obvious a surprise is coming. And it seems quite obvious the surprise is Obama's first big time mainstream supporter. Someone with experience both in foreigh affairs nd the economy. And government. And is still an outsider. Today anyway.

TOM DASCHEL

by ObamaNation 2008-08-03 05:58AM | 0 recs
Obama's Choice: Edwards or Gore
Anyone need explanations?

Obama, who is a wonderful candidate and will be one the great Presidents, will benefit from the two strongest VP candidates. That they are the two strongest is beyond doubt. But they are also the two candidates that best project change in America and that is the central idea, and need, of this campaign.

They are also very very popular, very very well known, vetted, checked and approved in their own winning presidential elections.

Change with comfort, change with assurances of competence and honor. Change and Hope.

Although this isn't my idea, having read it elsewhere, I am in total agreement.

Don't ask why someone would serve in these times of crisis, people who are as aware as these great men know that if they are needed they will serve, and have stated that.
by Exiled 2008-08-03 06:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice: Edwards or Gore

GORE DOESN'T WANT TO BE VP!  ITS A DEMOTION FOR HIM!!!

That's about as realistic as me saying... "Hey I want FDR for Obama's VP!

by yitbos96bb 2008-08-03 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's Choice: Edwards or Gore

Why the caps? And why it it a demotion to serve? If one has honor, if ons purpose is to serve, if your President asks, where is the "demotion"?

There is much to do. Some want to be remembered for the things they have, some for the things they do. Service is not alien to these people.

by Exiled 2008-08-03 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: I think its Biden

I was an earky Biden supporter and I worked on his son's Delaware Ag campaign

I've gotten three e-mails (One from the Presidential campaign, one from his son's campaign and one from Joe's Senate camapign) touting Obama, blasting the GOp and pushing his legislative agenda.

The Presidential campaign website has been dark since March, the Senate cmapgn has been pretty regular and the last time I heard from his son's campaign website was February.

Smells like Joe's in the top three contenders...My guess is Richardson and kaine are the other two

by kmwray 2008-08-03 06:31AM | 0 recs

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