Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

Remember how George W. Bush was going to reshape the electorate by bringing Hispanic voters into the Republican Party, and how John McCain was going to continue the Bush legacy in this regard? Remember how the fact that Hillary Clinton bested Barack Obama among Hispanics during the Democratic primaries augured poorly for Obama's chances among the demographic during the general? Well apparently it's just not the case.

Hispanic registered voters support Democrat Barack Obama for president over Republican John McCain by 66% to 23%, according to a nationwide survey of 2,015 Latinos conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center, a project of the Pew Research Center, from June 9 through July 13, 2008.

[...]

Obama is rated favorably by 76% of Latino registered voters, making him much more popular among that voting group than McCain (44% favorable) and President Bush (27% favorable). Hillary Clinton's ratings among Latino registered voters are 73% favorable and 24% unfavorable; Obama's are 76% favorable and 17% unfavorable.

Also, more than three-quarters of Latinos who reported that they voted for Clinton in the primaries now say they are inclined to vote for Obama in the fall election, while just 8% say they are inclined to vote for McCain. That means that Obama is doing better among Hispanics who supported Clinton than he is among non-Hispanic white Clinton supporters, 70% of whom now say they have transferred their allegiance to Obama while 18% say they plan to vote for McCain, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

This is a remarkably poor performance for McCain, one that seriously threatens his ability to win this fall. In 2004, George W. Bush received at least 40 percent (.pdf), and perhaps even as much as 44 percent, of the Hispanic vote. Even in 2006, when the Republicans (particularly in the House) were running a strongly anti-immigrant campaign, the GOP still pulled in about 30 percent of the Hispanic vote. But John McCain, a candidate assumed at the outset of this race to have particular strength among Hispanics? McCain has roughly half the support of George W. Bush among Hispanic voters and even a quarter less support within the community than Republicans received in 2006.

And in case you don't think these numbers matter, think again. Just look at McCain's home state of Arizona -- where McCain has been forced to campaign. If McCain were only able to manage 22 percent of the Hispanic vote in Arizona, just doing the math he'd have to pull in about 63 percent of the White, Asian-American and "other" vote in the state to reach the 50 percent marker (Jon Kyl received about 55 percent of the White vote in his 10-point reelection victory in 2006, for reference). Even if McCain only needed to hit the 48 percentage point mark to win because of third party participation, he would still need to get over 60 percent of the non-Hispanic and non-African-American vote in order to hit such a plurality. Let's say that mark is just 45 percent. McCain would still need to get 56.4 percent of the White/Asian-American/"other" vote -- again, above Kyl's performance in 2006.

This is just one state, Arizona, a state that McCain should win. Now extrapolate these numbers across the country, particularly in other states with large Hispanic voting blocs, and you see McCain's immense problem. If the 22 percent mark were to hold in a state like Texas, and Obama were to receive a respectable though not shockingly high 90 percent of the African-American vote, McCain would need to pull in close to 60 percent of the remaining vote to earn a majority of the overall vote. Even if McCain were just shooting for a 48 percent plurality, he'd still need 57 percent of the vote outside of the Hispanic and African-American communities.

I'm just playing with numbers based on the 2006 exit polling, and you can shift the turnout in one direction or the other, or the percentage share of the African-American vote received by Obama up or down. Nevertheless, it's fairly clear that McCain would have difficulty earning 200 electoral votes, let alone 270, were he to receive just 22 percent of the Hispanic vote this year.

Tags: Hispanic Voters, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

Interestingly, Krauthammer in today's WAPO basically admitted Obama is almost certain to be the next president.

by ottovbvs 2008-07-25 05:12AM | 0 recs
A twisted, evil man

n/s

by iohs2008 2008-07-25 05:59AM | 0 recs
I don't Know

Personally, I think this is great news for Senator McCain.  It just shows that he's willing to stand up to constituencies like Hispanic Voters.  What a Maverick!

by HSTruman 2008-07-25 05:13AM | 0 recs
Obama favorables

Higher than Clinton's among latinos.

Interesting.

by lojasmo 2008-07-25 05:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama favorables

Clinton almost certainly would have gotten the same numbers.  This surge has been building for a while.    

by IncognitoErgoSum 2008-07-25 05:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama favorables

I guess all that Concern during the primaries was either unwarranted or dishonest.  Say, have there been posts lately from any otters or my favorite darlin' from Texas?

by mikeinsf 2008-07-25 08:52AM | 0 recs
Was totally gonna write a diary on this yesterday

THe most interesting part of the whole poll is how Hispanic voters rank the issues most important to them. While the economy is at the forefront, Hispanics dont rank it as their number one issue. EDUCATION edges out the cost of living for the number one spot. While the war in iraq and immigration round out the top seven.

by alyssa chaos 2008-07-25 05:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

A Baselice poll from May 29 had McCain winning 64% of the white vote against Obama and Clinton, with 9% still undecided, and that seems right to me, because George Bush won this demo by approx. 3-1.  Think it's only a matter of time before the Dems win Texas (people forget that before '92 California went GOP in 9 out of 10 elections--demographics is destiny).  But this year?  Think Obama is more likely to win South Carolina and Mississippi (and those are long shots).

by IncognitoErgoSum 2008-07-25 05:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

its possible. If AAs,Hispanic, and youth voter turnout is high enough I could actually see that happening. But I think with attention turned to other swing states like NM, it doesn't look like it will happwn this year. There isn't a big GOTV operation going on in TX from what I can tell [at least where Im at, we're training people here in TX to go register voters in NM; ironic]

You get the feeling from people on the ground here that they have already conceded the state.

by alyssa chaos 2008-07-25 05:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

Are you saying we are going to lose California this year or that Texas, SC, and MS are in play?

by JDF 2008-07-25 08:23AM | 0 recs
To those who think person befor party...

...it was a necessary conclusion that "spurned" Latino/a voters would simply abandon the democratic party when Sen. Clinton (officially) lost the battle for the nomination.

The rest of us knew all along Latino/a voters were smarter than this.

The argument throughout the primary wars that racial demographics governed all is in essence a condescending argument; people are ready to put party before person.

by iohs2008 2008-07-25 05:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

well, he has 90$ mil, might as well focus on arizona.  he has to spend the money somewhere.  

by Doug Tuttle 2008-07-25 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

the argument that Latinos wouldn't vote Obama was always stupid IMO. It's not at all surprising seeing Obama poll well against a party that has been so hostile to immigrants and social programs.

Regarding AZ, considering the state is mainly older, more conservative and have their homestate senator on the ballot should account for something but the demographics are brutal to McCain if 2004 exit poll numbers and current state demographics are to be believed.

RACE | current%of state population | (%of 2004 vote) | bush% | kerry%

White | 59% | (79%) | 59% | 41%
........................................ ..................
African-American | 4% | (2%) | n/a
........................................ ..................
Latino | 30% | (12%) | 43% | 56%
........................................ ..................
Asian | 2% | (1%) | n/a
........................................ ..................
Other | (5%)

If we assume that Latino's total share of the electorate jumps to 20%, that blacks become 3% and Asians & "Other" comprise 7% of all AZ voters, then the share of white voters will drop 9 points to 70%.

If Obama wins 65% of Latinos, 90% of blacks and 55% of asian and others, McCain would need to win 56% of white voters.

by alex100 2008-07-25 06:29AM | 0 recs
In Arizona

"Other" is probably most Native Americans.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-07-25 08:42AM | 0 recs
MostLY Native Americans, that is

by Angry White Democrat 2008-07-25 08:42AM | 0 recs
(Comment Deleted)

This comment has been deleted by an administrator.

by 3918 john 2008-07-25 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

all caps!!!! shut up!!!

by alyssa chaos 2008-07-25 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

yes, I as a Latino would definitely pick the candidate that I feel would not only enact rational immigration policies but be a humanist, work better with labor (and expand it), and expand worker's rights, health care attainment and civil liberties.

those are the things that will help Latinos (and all people). Not some past event that does nothing for millions in the coming years.

by alex100 2008-07-25 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

Check out this hopeful Obama video from Maria Muldaur's "Yes We Can!"   Tons of friends, too, like Amma, Joan Baez, Jane Fonda, Holly Near, Phoebe Snow, Marianne Williamson, and more.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZLVXxGMG3Fw

http://www.concordmusicgroup.com/albums/ 83672/

by telarc 2008-07-25 08:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Obama Crushing McCain Among Hispanic Voters

I'm not at all surprised that Obama is doing well among Hispanics--that was always a narrative without factual basis.  What is somewhat surprising is how poorly McCain does.  For him to be well below how Republicans generally fared in 2006 is shocking.  Before the R nomination fight, McCain had always done well among Hispanics, much better than Rs generally.  Of course, he's also strongly associated with the attempt to provide a path to citizenship that other Rs slammed.  Of course, he's tacked hard right and this has a lot to do with it.  But, I suspect an even bigger problem for McCain is the "R" beside his name on the ballot.  If Democrats can continue to solidify their standing among Hispanics, the Republican party as we now know it will disappear.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-07-25 01:17PM | 0 recs

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