Obama within Striking Distance in South Carolina

Last month Rasmussen Reports polling showed John McCain leading in South Carolina, though underwhelmingly, by a 48 percent to 39 percent margin. Today, Public Policy Polling released data showing McCain's lead over Barack Obama to be just 45 percent to 39 percent, with Bob Barr pulling in 5 percent of the vote.

Barack Obama is keeping it closer than other Democrats have in recent years in South Carolina, but still trails John McCain by six points.

The demographics fueling Obama's ability to stay within striking range are the same ones that allowed him to win a dominant victory in the state's Democratic primary. He leads 77-10 with black voters and 54-32 with voters under 30. John McCain leads within pretty much every other subgroup.

If there is a path to victory for Obama in South Carolina it includes maximizing turnout from those two groups favorable to him, and also hoping that more conservatives unhappy with John McCain will turn toward Bob Barr.

As you can see, it appears that PPP is likely underestimating Obama's support within the African-American community. If you estimate Obama's support at closer to 95 percent, which isn't by any means out of the question given Obama's strength in the community and the fact that Kerry won about 85 percent of the African-American vote in the state in 2004, and all of the sudden it's a 44 percent to 44 percent race (keeping everything else the same). Does that mean that South Carolina is already on the map for Obama, or that the state's electoral votes are key to Obama reaching 270 (or even 300 or 350)? No. But the more states like South Carolina that McCain has to think about, the easier it is for Obama to become President.

Tags: 2008, SC-Pres, South Carolina (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Re: Obama within Striking Distance in South Caroli

I thought the Arizona poll with Obama within 4 was pretty hilarious as well.  Bob Barr is getting a decent amount of support so far, but I am assuming that will taper off as we get closer to November.

In any case, I am feeling quite good about the O man's chances come this November.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:12PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama within Striking Distance in South Caroli

Zogby's internet poll had Obama LEADING in Arizona. It's BS though.

by elrod 2008-07-15 08:58PM | 0 recs
Anyone see Obama

on Larry King?  I think he's the best one-on-one interviewer in the party (I would actually rank HRC as the best speech-maker in the party).  Didn't think it was Obama at his best tonight.

Obama should make an ad of Sanford being unable to state any differences between Bush and McCain for fifteen seconds and run that baby in SC.  Unfortunately, I have a feeling that Bush is still popular in South Carolina.  If it were Bush v. Obama, I have a feeling Bush would just win seven states, with South Carolina being one of them (the other six would be Idaho, Wyoming, Texas, Utah, Alabama, and Kentucky).

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Anyone see Obama

Yeah, I don't think I could rank HRC above Obama on speech making, but she is definitely very good.  She is awesome on focus and debating.  As much as I opposed her in the primaries, I had an immense amount of respect for her ability to whoop ass in a debate format.  But hey, to each their own I guess.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:32PM | 0 recs
I think she's a

great debater (significantly better than Obama and McCain) but I wouldn't put her at the top of the party.  She can, as can everybody, get tripped up on foreign policy questions (e.g. name the Russian president) and bs personal questions (e.g. tax returns, library donors) where she can come off as really defensive.  I thought Biden was the best debater among the dems.

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: I think she's a

Biden is just super smart.  But I am biased and have a lot of respect for him.  

So how would a Biden vs. Romney VP debate go?  It would be interesting to watch our solid foreign policy guy go against their supposedly solid economy guy.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:42PM | 0 recs
I just think Romney

is such a shitty candidate; he's actually a pretty good debater and I would rank him better than Obama.  The problem with Romney is that he's so easy to throw off; you just have to go negative against him and Biden (or Clinton for that matter) would not need to be restrained in what they say because no one is going to shed a tear if Romney gets insulted.

McCain is a useless debater but the guy is a first-class insult tosser; he had that gem to Romney "you are the candidate of change."  Watching Huckabee and Guiliani pile on slick Mitt was funny as hell.

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:44PM | 0 recs
Re: I just think Romney

McCain is a pretty big jerk in debates and it seems to work for him.  I agree that Romney is a great debater.  But you are right, he just comes across as that sleazy used car salesman who also tries to cop a feel on your girlfriend while at the lot.  

Clinton would probably destroy him and Biden would do quite well if he was able to get him mad.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:47PM | 0 recs
Substantively

Romney can match Clinton but HRC is pretty darn good in terms of her ability to mix substance with style during debates.  She is excellent at getting out soundbytes but making sure there's some substance in them.  I just think that going negative, without coming off as a jerk (e.g. McCain), is what you want to do during a debate and that Biden is probably comes off better than HRC in going negative.  Biden's line about Rudy's entire campaign was missing one phrase "noun, verb, 9/11, and Hillary Clinton."

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Substantively

laugh, I remember that one now, that was classic.  I can't wait for the conventions and the debates.  All of this pre game type stuff and arm chair quarterbacking is driving me crazy.  

I am off to bed though, have a good one and I will look for you in the open threads again.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:52PM | 0 recs
Obama's issue

during debates seems to be coming off as far too overconfident and smug.  There's self-confidence but then Obama seems to take that to another level during debates (sans the Philly debate).  McCain's problem is that his disregard for his opponents is so apparent.  Both guys suffer from an arrogance issue, but it gets manifested in different ways.

It should be a pretty funny debate between two guys, McCain and Obama, who just absolutely love themselves.

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:54PM | 0 recs
Obama's red state tour

continues tomorrow in Indiana.  Unfortunately, he's hanging out with Nunn and Bayh.  Let's really hope that these two are just smokescreens.

When is the last time Obama has campaigned in a blue state, besides hanging out with Hillary in New York?  His internals must really show him with fairly comfortable leads in the Kerry/Gore states.

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama's red state tour

Yeah I am not a big fan of Bayh either.  I am glad he is on our side, but he is pretty uninspiring to me in a lot of ways.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:33PM | 0 recs
Bayh as VP would be another

shot at the 'roots considering that he voted against the Dodd/Feingold amendments on the FISA bill.

How much will it kill McCain to have to praise Obama before the NAACP tomorrow in Ohio?

by Blazers Edge 2008-07-15 07:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Bayh as VP would be another

Its going to make my day.  I will give him props for speaking there though.  If I remember correctly, Bush did not accept their invitation to speak last time he was running.

It seems like things are slowly shifting in Obama's favor.  His pivot today with Afghanistan was brilliant.  First time in a long time that I have seen the Republican following the Democrats lead.  I am sure Obama will have a lot more bad days, but today was a good one in my eyes.

by Xris 2008-07-15 07:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Bayh as VP would be another

Bayh would be barely acceptable as VP.

Nunn would be totally unacceptable.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-07-15 09:34PM | 0 recs
Striking Distance in South Carolina

Go Bob Barr !!!

by Bush Bites 2008-07-15 07:39PM | 0 recs
Distance in South Carolina

This is somewhat off-topic, but when do we find out what Obama raised in June?  We're halfway through July now...

by Vox Populi 2008-07-15 08:23PM | 0 recs
Re: Distance in South Carolina

The twenty-first, from memory.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-07-15 09:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama within Striking Distance in South Caroli

South Carolina is too far gone. We always get fed nonsense like this, several months out, states that may deviate from natural tendency. It's garbage. The partisan index has been roughly mid teens red in every recent cycle. You don't overturn something like that minus an absolute national avalanche.

Again, the most simple criteria is to focus on the percentage of self-identified liberals and conservatives. That is the foundational reality in every state, numbers that swat flimsy current polls. In 2004, South Carolina was 15% liberal and 39% conservative. That's about 5% too low and 5% too high, compared to a true swing state. And that's massive.

South Carolina always has an atypically high percentage of female voters, which should favor Obama or any Democrat, but the white women vote almost identical to the white men.

by Gary Kilbride 2008-07-16 12:43AM | 0 recs

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