McCain's Organization Gap Persists

There has been a good deal of talk about the enthusiasm gap facing John McCain, which potentially makes it significantly more difficult for him to be able to keep the White House in Republican hands this fall. But as important, or even perhaps more important, is the substantial organizing gap his campaign faces.

I have noted that the Obama campaign is on track to have something like ten times as many organizers in Missouri as the McCain campaign -- a number that underscores why this year the state looks more purple than red. The numbers around the country don't look too different. Here's the The Indianapolis Star:

The election is four months away, but for now the score in Indiana is Barack Obama, 6; John McCain, 0.

Zero campaign offices, that is.

Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, has opened five campaign offices -- in Evansville, Fishers, Fort Wayne, Muncie and South Bend -- and will open a sixth in Bloomington on Monday.

Jonathan Swain, a spokesman for Obama's campaign in Indiana, said plans are to have 25 to 30 campaign offices in the state.

It's part of a push by Obama to become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win Indiana's electoral votes since Lyndon Johnson did so in 1964.

Here's Marc Ambinder:

A Michigan source sends along a memo from the Obama campaign's Michigan state director, Amy Chapman -- an "update," she calls it, on what the campaign is doing. And what they are doing is bringing jobs to Michigan:

To date, the campaign has hired more than 90 paid staffers and plans to hire another 80 by the national convention. There will be five full-time "constituency voter coordinators" who work with coalitions and affinity groups, like women, gays and veterans. All in all, the campaign plans to pay more than 200 people in Michigan. That's about twice as many staffers as the Kerry-Edwards effort did in 2004.

And here's what's happening in Florida from The Orlando Sentinel:

John McCain's Florida problems may be growing: Democratic voters have out-registered Republicans by a nearly 7-to-1 margin since January.

State totals show Democrats gained a net of 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the GOP -- a shift that could muddle any McCain campaign math that banks on a Florida win to gain the White House.

New Democratic registration outnumbered Republicans in six Central Florida counties -- even heavily Republican Seminole County.

There's a reason why polling out of a state like South Dakota, which the Republicans tend to win by about 20 points in presidential elections, shows Obama within 4 points. There's a reason why the polling in Indiana, a state that the Democrats haven't carried in more than 40 years, shows Obama tied or leading. Organization matters. Having boots on the ground moves numbers. And for as effective as television ads are, as well as a national media strategy, having actual people actually meet voters makes a difference.

Tags: FL-Pres, Florida, IN-Pres, Indiana, John McCain, MI-Pres, Michigan, Organization Gap, SD-Pres, South Dakota, White House 2008 (all tags)



Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

First video of a GITMO interrogration.
It's not nice.

by W126 2008-07-15 03:31AM | 0 recs

This link sure looks suspicious.

Maybe the promised clip, maybe malware, maybe trolling, maybe more sophisticated offerings from our friend with the Chinese electronics.

by January 20 2008-07-15 04:22AM | 0 recs
by W126 2008-07-15 04:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Hmm...

Much better than the anonymous posts from a new member with absolutely no prior history.


by January 20 2008-07-15 04:37AM | 0 recs
But to the meat of this story...


This is just about what I was expecting from his campaign's performance to date.

Of course it's even less than I expected from McCain.  I know his team is somewhat out of their league here, but considering the 3 month advantage they had it's humiliating.

by January 20 2008-07-15 04:41AM | 0 recs
Elections are won on the ground game

and right now Obama is whipping McCain's but on the ground.

by puma 2008-07-15 04:06AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

Another thing that makes a difference is the media's  spin on the elections ongoing events.  The failure of the MSM to point out these important structural differences explains why this election appears so close to the general public, yet when you factor in each of the campaigns organizations we know Obama has the edge.

by nzubechukwu 2008-07-15 04:13AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists


Many in the media (as well as several pollsters) failed to account for the 2004 Bush campaign's vastly superior voter targeting and ground game.  The result was a shocking (to many) albeit close victory for the president.

This year, as far as a meaningful ground effort goes, Obama is the only game in town.  His is the kind of organization which lays the groundwork for a landslide.

It continues to baffle me that the MSM is reticent to point out just how untellably shitty McCain's campaign has been.  Once Obama wins, they'll all write their post postmortems and pretend like it was evident all along.

by enr37 2008-07-15 04:47AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

Here's where I'm having trouble putting 2 & 2 together. Supposedly Obama's fund raising is down; the RNC is sitting on all this money. Yet it's Obama's campaign that's deploying this onslaught of paid staffers.

by Bob Miller 2008-07-15 04:57AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

McCain has outspent Obama on the Air by a pretty hefty margin the last couple months.  I think McCain has already spent 10 Million on paid advertising since Obama clinched the nomination.  Significantly, his advertising hasn't moved the polls at all.  

by HSTruman 2008-07-15 05:04AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

Good point.

I'm quite grateful that we're facing McCain, and not Huck or Romney. They could both honestly run an "I'm not another George Bush" campaign. With McCain, it's an old man version of Dubya.

Something else gives me hope about Obama. Although he has no formal, executive experience, he has, by far, run the best campaign of anyone out there. Here's hoping those organizational skills stay with Barack into the Oval Office because the primary function of the Executive Branch is to run the government.

by Bob Miller 2008-07-15 05:27AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

Now that's putting two and two together.

by Shaun Appleby 2008-07-15 05:31AM | 0 recs
Creates Buzz

When these offices open, it creates a buzz of free publicity in the local media.  When Obama visits, it creates days of stories.  Obama is coming to Indiana to discuss computer security issues and new terrorist threats at Purdue, host of a prominent computer security center.  

Obama is making quite the counterpoint to McCain who can't find the entrance ramp to the information superhighway?

Will this portray McCain as too old to understand the threats of the future?

by bakho 2008-07-15 05:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Creates Buzz

Rec'd for no other reason than the "entrance ramp" quip.

by Bob Miller 2008-07-15 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain's Organization Gap Persists

Best news yet! Who needs Evan Bayh? :P

by Nathan Empsall 2008-07-15 07:28AM | 0 recs


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