Shifts in Colorado

According to the Pollster.com trend estimate, Barack Obama now holds a 42.5 percent to 40.4 percent lead over John McCain in Colorado. Real Clear Politics sees a larger 47.3 percent to 42.0 percent lead for Obama. FiveThirtyEight.com's regression analysis pegs Obama's lead as about the same as the one found by RCP, and gives Obama a 65 percent shot at winning the state.

Yet as exciting as all of those numbers are -- and they do look good, don't get me wrong -- it is this set of numbers that is the really good omen for both Obama and the Democratic Party:

Since the 2006 election, Republicans have lost about 42,000 voters, and Democrats have picked up about 32,000, registration records show.

That's a significant amount of movement since 2006 -- a year, I might add, that was great for Colorado Democrats. Remember, that fall saw what was supposed to have been one of the nation's closest gubernatorial contests end up a rout in favor of the Democrats, with Denver District Attorney Bill Ritter overwhelming Republican Congressman Bob Beauprez 56 percent to 41 percent. That November's election also saw what was supposed to have been a close race in the evenly-drawn seventh congressional district end up a big 55 percent to 42 percent win for Democrat Ed Perlmutter.

And yet despite the fact that 2006 was a banner year for the Democrats, their numbers have continued to grow in the state since then, both in nominal terms and (particularly) relative to the GOP. Throw in the fact that Obama will address tens of thousands of voters in his acceptance speech at Mile High -- voters whose contact information he will get when they register for tickets to the address -- and the likelihood that the speech will bring positive coverage in the state, and all of the sudden things look really great in Colorado.

This, of course, does not mean that anything can be taken for granted. That said, the likelihood is looking greater and greater that Obama will be able to build on the 47 percent John Kerry earned in Colorado in 2004 and really make a play for the state's nine electoral votes come November.

Tags: CO-Pres, Colorado, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: Shifts in Colorado

There's a lot to be gained from getting a solid foothold in CO.  Hopefully, the Obama candidacy/presidency will go a long way toward this.

Don't forget that we still have to get Udall elected.  It's an important race both to pad our majority and prove that a fairly solid progressive (at least someone better than Salazar) can win over the purple states.

And gawd, wouldn't it be nice to unseat Marilyn Musgrave?  We have a huge, huge opportunities in Colorado this year.  No reason not to go greedy and get them all.

by enr37 2008-07-10 06:02AM | 0 recs
Kerry's 47%

would have been more, but a lot of democrats didn't vote for him.

by missliberties 2008-07-10 06:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

Wow. I can't imagine how you look at those numbers as encouraging. How much is Bush and the GOP hated?

I see those numbers as terrifying.

by MNPundit 2008-07-10 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

Really?  In a state that we haven't won without the help of a strong third party challenger in a long time?  And where the GOP nominee is from the Mountain West?  

They look pretty encouraging to me.  

by HSTruman 2008-07-10 07:18AM | 0 recs
When I see falling numbers I get nervous. n/t

by MNPundit 2008-07-11 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

Colorado could be the Ohio of 2008. At the very least it means Ohio is a fallback for Obama - it isn't the be-all-and-end-all. Larry Sabato thinks the true swing states are CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI. I'd shrink that to CO, NV, OH and VA.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/political_commentary/commentary_b y_larry_j_sabato/the_map_the_crystal_bal l_s_first_look_at_november_s_electoral_c ollege

by conspiracy 2008-07-10 06:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

Singer, could you please check my past comments?

It seems aliveandkickin (roxfoxy) has yet ANOTHER sockpuppet working my commments. Hundreds downrated once again.

Sigh.

by spacemanspiff 2008-07-10 06:54AM | 0 recs
It's a travesty

that this has been allowed to go on for days.

Just another example of how the ratings system is an invitation to manipulation and abuse.

by Beren 2008-07-10 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

Send a message to Jerome or Todd with a link to the user's ratings history page. One glance at that page makes it obvious that they are engaging in ratings abuse. There is a "contact us" link at the bottom of every page. I just sent a message to Jerome pointing out the abuse and that the user had already been banned once.

by MS01 Indie 2008-07-10 07:28AM | 0 recs
What state can McLame take for granted?

Utah?

He only polls 38% in AZ.

by Beren 2008-07-10 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

Great news.

With the population swing moving towards the west, Colorado may be on its way to becoming one of the key battleground states of the future.  

Whoever chose Denver as the site of this year's democratic national convention deserves some extra gold stars.  The fact that Obama's historic acceptance speech will be held in Colorado is going to give Obama a huge boost in Colorado, and I can see Obama winning Colorado fairly easily (high single digit win).  

by ProfessorReo 2008-07-10 07:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

I always thought the Democrats overachieved in 2006.

I expected that to be an election that set the plate for this year.

So, if you believe they're starting from a much better than expected base, there's no reason why they can't overachieve on their 2008 hopes too.

by Bush Bites 2008-07-10 09:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Shifts in Colorado

If anything I thought they underachieved slighly. Certainly by historic standards for a 6th year wave election. There were many more close races in the House that the GOP managed to pull out that really should have been Dem wins. Of course it means the likes of Shays et al are the low hanging fruit for this year.

by conspiracy 2008-07-10 10:08AM | 0 recs

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