More Polling Pegs the Musgrove-Wicker Race As Very Tight

Here's Rasmussen Reports in a release from last week that I haven't had the chance of writing up until now:

Mississippi's appointed U.S. Senator Roger Wicker (R) finds himself in a very tight election battle to win the job on his own. University of Virginia's Larry Sabato has noted that this will be a "real political battle" which is "a rarity in a state that's usually red as red can be."

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race finds a pure toss-up--former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) attracts 47% of the vote while Wicker earns 46%.

Musgove leads by ten points among women but trails by eight among men. The Democratic challenger leads among voters under 50 while the GOP incumbent leads among those who have passed the half-century mark. Musgove is supported by 81% of Democrats, Wicker by 76% of Republicans, and Wicker holds a very modest 44% to 40% lead among the state's unaffiliated voters.

I'd love to see the methodology of this poll, specifically whether the party affiliations of Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker were mentioned in the question or not. Because this is a special Senate election rather than a normal general election (it is being held to fill the remaining term of Trent Lott), the ballot will be a nonpartisan one, with only the candidate's names and not their party affiliation listed on the ballot. Indeed we've already seen the polling on this race fluctuate with the different way the question is asked. For now, though, with Musgrove consistently polling near or even above Wicker, it's pretty clear however you slice it that this is a very competitive race.

Tags: Mississippi, MS-Sen, Senate 2008 (all tags)



This poll has been out for a few days already

I believe Kos said somewhere that he asked Scott Rasmussen about it, and the party affiliations were indeed not mentioned.

by MILiberal 2008-06-04 05:53AM | 0 recs
Re: This poll has been out for a few days already

See here

by MILiberal 2008-06-04 05:54AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polling Pegs the Musgrove-Wicker Race As

I am just in awe of what's going to happen to Democratic fortunes nationwide.

Take that, all the haters who doubted and tried to sabotage Chairman Dean's vision for a Democratic Party that was unafraid to compete in any state, in any district.  Many, like Rahm Emmanuel and James Carville, even called for him to step down in favor of Harold Ford!

I am trying to decide if the Right's bankrupt ideas and distorted values were the root of their downfall, or if it was greed and corruption and arrogance and lying to the American people.  Or maybe a little of everything?

It's never easy to separate strategy from tactics in the aftermath of a catastrophic loss.

by dembluestates 2008-06-04 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polling Pegs the Musgrove-Wicker Race As

Contrary to conventional wisdom, I believe Obama at the top of the ticket will really help Democrats in Deep South races.  Some, but few, white voters will be unwilling to vote for a conservative, white Democrat even if they're voting for McCain and dislike Obama.  But, Obama will bring a big increase in turnout among black voters who will be 90+% for the white Democrat.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-06-04 07:47AM | 0 recs
Re: More Polling Pegs the Musgrove-Wicker Race As

Hmmm..  Wish I had your faith.

I believe best we can hope for is a slight improvement in Kerry's numbers in the South.

The AA vote was pretty close to maxed out by Kerry in 2004 at 88%, but the South went overwhelmingly Bush anyway.

I'm still hoping more new registrations and Latinos and young people will cut into the Southern White vote totals.  But don't forget Obama will energize and bring out the haters more than Kerry did, too.

I'm praying that balance means we can compete in Florida, the richest in EV of all the South except for TX.  If we lose Florida like Kerry did, by over 300k votes, we are in a world of hurt.

by dembluestates 2008-06-04 12:14PM | 0 recs


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