McCain Manages to Get Only 38 Percent in Homestate of Arizona
by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jun 27, 2008 at 03:55:27 AM EDT
It's tough times when a party's presidential nominee manages to score just 38 percent support in his home state (even when the poll in question didn't push leaners, and thus more than a third of respondents are deemed "undecided").
Republican presidential candidate John McCain is apparently leading Democrat Barack Obama in the race for Arizona, a poll released Tuesday says.
The statewide poll found 38 percent of voters said they would probably vote for McCain, while 28 percent said they would likely back Obama. Thirty-four percent of voters were undecided.
The poll of 350 registered voters was conducted June 20-21 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communications at Arizona State University and Channel Eight/KAET-TV. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.
The last presidential poll by KAET, taken in late April, said McCain had roughly the same advantage over Obama.
Because the overall sample size for this poll wasn't super large and the head-to-head question was only asked to half of respondents (the other half being asked their opinion of a match-up between John McCain and a Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton ticket), the margin of error for this question is fairly high. A rough estimate this morning puts it somewhere in the neighborhood of plus or minus 7.5 percentage points. However, even when that number is factored in, McCain doesn't look particularly strong judging by these numbers, with his support likely ranging from somewhere between about 30 points to about 46 points -- not the type of level of support you expect from a nominee hoping to be competitive around the country.
In short, if this is the kind of tepid support McCain is seeing in Arizona -- where voters know him and his shenanigans better than any other voters in the country outside of the Beltway -- what is his level of backing around the country going to look like come November when voters from Alaska to Florida have begun to learn about the real McCain?