McCain Manages to Get Only 38 Percent in Homestate of Arizona

It's tough times when a party's presidential nominee manages to score just 38 percent support in his home state (even when the poll in question didn't push leaners, and thus more than a third of respondents are deemed "undecided").

Republican presidential candidate John McCain is apparently leading Democrat Barack Obama in the race for Arizona, a poll released Tuesday says.

The statewide poll found 38 percent of voters said they would probably vote for McCain, while 28 percent said they would likely back Obama. Thirty-four percent of voters were undecided.

The poll of 350 registered voters was conducted June 20-21 by the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communications at Arizona State University and Channel Eight/KAET-TV. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 5.2 percentage points.

The last presidential poll by KAET, taken in late April, said McCain had roughly the same advantage over Obama.

Because the overall sample size for this poll wasn't super large and the head-to-head question was only asked to half of respondents (the other half being asked their opinion of a match-up between John McCain and a Barack Obama/Hillary Clinton ticket), the margin of error for this question is fairly high. A rough estimate this morning puts it somewhere in the neighborhood of plus or minus 7.5 percentage points. However, even when that number is factored in, McCain doesn't look particularly strong judging by these numbers, with his support likely ranging from somewhere between about 30 points to about 46 points -- not the type of level of support you expect from a nominee hoping to be competitive around the country.  

In short, if this is the kind of tepid support McCain is seeing in Arizona -- where voters know him and his shenanigans better than any other voters in the country outside of the Beltway -- what is his level of backing around the country going to look like come November when voters from Alaska to Florida have begun to learn about the real McCain?

Tags: Arizona, AZ-Pres, John McCain, White House 2008 (all tags)

Comments

6 Comments

Maybe he should quit...

...taking weekends off.

Since effectively capturing the Republican nomination when Mitt Romney dropped out of the race on Feb. 7, John McCain has held just one public campaign event on a weekend.

Instead, after workweeks full of fundraisers, town hall meetings and interviews, McCain has been, in campaign parlance, "down" on nearly every Saturday or Sunday for 20 weeks, largely sequestered away from the news media.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/060 8/11355.html

by Bush Bites 2008-06-27 04:52AM | 0 recs
oh lord

I get it!  He's gonna win everything and flip all red states blue.  I mean, this is like the 70th post to that effect.
If we are trying to overplay confidence and thereby lulling the base into a catatonic state of euphoria- it's working!  Sorry to be such a bitch I just feel like the constant "my dad can beat up your dad" posts are counterproductive (and annoying!).

This election will be super close- and for us to believe otherwise would be foolish.  Remember Kerry's lead in the polls at this time in the 2004 election cycle?  Kerry was ahead by around 5%.  Today's  RCP Nat. Average?  Obama by 6%.  

Just sayin.

by easyE 2008-06-27 06:03AM | 0 recs
Wow

Two responses...  and one of them is a concern post.  Yikes.

I'm glad to see McCain struggle.  This is his payback for sticking his finger in his own party's eye for years and then turning into W. Jr. in the last 6 months.

PS.  For a good front page story, see this.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsN ews/idUSN2632109420080626

The labor federation has budgeted about $54 million for get-out-the-vote operations on behalf of Obama, and will focus on mobilizing 13 million union members in 24 priority states.

SWEET!

by SpanishFly 2008-06-27 06:29AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Manages to Get Only 38 Percent in Homes

Only 350 voters?  Oh brother.  I'm sorry, but I have very little faith in this poll.  ASU, if you're gonna do a poll, make it meaningful.  This is why even when matched up against the University of Arizona, you're still considered the safety school, and only 51% of you guys actually graduate (last I saw).  Just stick with posing for Playboy and chanting pro-terrorist messages to basketball players whose fathers were murdered by terrorists.  Leave the polling to those who know what they're doing.

< / ASU rant >

by BruinKid 2008-06-27 06:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Oh Lord

Yes widsom does say that the polls will be close, however the political enviroment in 2004 was even between the parties, while the political enviroment in 2008 favors the Democrats. Therefore Obama's lead is more likely to hold up and perhaps get stronger if he increases his share of the Democratic vote. Althrough I still think the election will be close (electoral vote wise, Obama is very likely to win the popular vote even if he loses the election)

by Jaxx Raxor 2008-06-27 06:54AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Manages to Get Only 38 Percent in Homes

I don't believe it.  I am not that gullible.

by dMarx 2008-06-27 11:17AM | 0 recs

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