Georgia On My Mind

Wondering why the Obama campaign is advertising in Georgia but not in states like Oregon or Minnesota? Perhaps it's because the map appears to be changing.

A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage's research partner Majority Opinion Research. PollPosition is InsiderAdvantage's new branding name (look for additional information and expansion of PollPosition in the coming months).

The Results:

McCain: 44%
Obama: 43%
Barr: 6%
Undecided: 7%

I have to admit that I just didn't see this coming. Virginia, which has been trending towards the Democrats (two straight governorship wins, soon-to-be two straight Senate wins, retaking the state Senate), I could see. Colorado, which has been trending towards the Democrats (a gubernatorial win, soon-to-be two straight Senate wins, two pick-ups in the House, retaking both chambers of the state legislature), I could see. Even Alaska I could see.

But Georgia? A state that has appeared to be one of the very few (and I do mean very few) to be trending towards the GOP? Georgia is on the map? Apparently. According to the Real Clear Politics average of recent polling out of the state, John McCain's lead over Barack Obama is just 49.7 percent to 41.3 percent. Nate Silver gives Obama a 28 percent shot at carrying the state -- not overwhelming, but certainly much higher than I would have anticipated.

So will Obama carry Georgia with the help of Bob Barr, who represented the state in Congress? At this point, it doesn't even really matter. It would be yet another back-breaker were it the case that Obama beat McCain in Georgia, making it that much more difficult (if not impossible) for McCain to make it to the White House without those 15 electoral votes. But even more important, by making the McCain campaign play defense in a state that the GOP hasn't had to defend during the last two presidential elections, thus spreading its resources even more thinly, Obama increases the likelihood that he is able to win overall. It almost makes you wonder why the Democrats weren't operating under a 50-state strategy earlier...

Tags: 2008, 50-State Strategy, GA-Pres, Georgia (all tags)

Comments

21 Comments

Re: Georgia On My Mind

I didn't see this coming either, and I'm a county chair in Georgia. I don't THINK Obama will win, but it's gonna be tight and he might.

What has changed in recent months is that the Republicans in charge of Georgia have screwed up so badly, so loudly, and so publicly that even the Savannah Morning News, long a mouthpiece of the GOP, has been running "Vote Democratic" editorials.

by georgiaka 2008-06-20 03:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

Obama will win in a rout.

Esp. since he will be extra fully funded.

The media will pile on McCain by election day.

We are headed closer to a Reagan landslide than a Bush the 1st victory.

We need to start thinking about governing with full control.

There will be no one to blame.

I hope we are sensible and mainstream.

by yellowdem1129 2008-06-20 03:34AM | 0 recs
Pile on McCain

I find the idea that the media will "pile on McCain by election day" highly unlikely.  

For one thing, McCain's base IS the media.  They love him and his ability to charm their pants off is the reason he won the nomination, the reason you saw him so much since 2000 and the reason people associate "maverick" with him.  

Even if they didn't love him, they wouldn't "pile on him."  Their interest is largely in ratings.  Ratings are increased by close electoral contests.  Therefore, its in their interest to make the race closer, not to pile on.

by PantsB 2008-06-20 05:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Pile on McCain

Both Obama & McCain are the respective media darlings.  Now, I admit, I always have expected---and still do---the media to tilt towards the "old" media darling instead of the "new" media darling in the general election, but what if they don't?  

Or even...GASP!...what if they simply did their jobs without having a darling?  

by InigoMontoya 2008-06-20 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Pile on McCain

Obama is a media darling?  Have you been paying attention this week?  Obama was only a media darling in comparison to Clinton.  Once he became the nominee, they were/are going to trash/hate on him as much as they did Clinton .. you can only have one true love .. and we all know the TradMed's true love is McCain

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-06-20 07:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Pile on McCain

Given how much airtime Reverend Wright got (as opposed to say, Reverend Hagee), the flag lapel "issue", the pledge of allegiance thing and the ABC debate, I've never thought the "media darling" claim was accurate.

by PantsB 2008-06-20 08:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Pile on McCain

Obama gets a lot of media love over his "New Politics" approach.   I'm just waiting for the moment when it finally dawns on people that the "New Politics" is going to fundamentally the same as the "Old Politics" with a fresh coat of paint and a good marketing program.  

Oh well.  An Obama victory is better than a McCain victory, subsequent disillusionment or no.

by InigoMontoya 2008-06-20 02:10PM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

The real question is whether Obama will be able to raise enough money to put real pressure on McCain in places like Georgia.

He'll have lots of money, but McCain may be able to ignore him there, just as Gore ignored Bush campaigning in California in 2000.

The Bush campaign made a big noise about contesting New Jersey and California, but their efforts actually backfired. Bush was off campaigning in California during the last days of the campaign, while Gore concentrated on Florida. Gore actually WON Florida, but GOP voter suppression tactics worked and the Supreme Court blocked the re-count, so Bush won.

It's fine to contest these deep-red states as long as we don't lose perspective and realize that there's probably no way in hell that Obama can win Georgia.

Unless more polls show Obama within 4 or 5 points in Georgia, McCain can pretty much ignore the state and concentrate on Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Minnesota where he might have a chance of stealing the election by picking off some blue state or 2.

by Cugel 2008-06-20 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

Obviously unelectable. And boring.

by really not a troll 2008-06-20 04:05AM | 0 recs
Good question

Yes, why HAVEN'T we been on a 50 state strategy before?

by Dracomicron 2008-06-20 04:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Good question

Can you say the DLC?

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-06-20 07:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

Why haven't we?

Because we were the party who said, "If legislation can't pass don't, bother bringing it to the floor." and the party that still says, "We don't have the votes to stop a filibuster so let's scuttle the bill without actually making them filibuster."

Thank God Dean has kicked us into gear and got our guys to stop being so careful and lazy!

by nintendofanboy 2008-06-20 04:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

I don't think so, the 3rd party usually gets squeezed hard the closer the election looms. I'm guessing McCain will win this state.

by Jaz 2008-06-20 04:52AM | 0 recs
OK so

Why not make McCain work for it and expend some of his resources. It also helps downticket Dem candidates.

by parahammer 2008-06-20 05:20AM | 0 recs
Resources

Its also possible that even as McCain spends, Obama can raise money in Atlanta which has a large prospering black middle class (which a lot of big urban areas with sizable AA populations can't claim).  

by PantsB 2008-06-20 05:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

Amidst the Obama euphoria, let's not ignore that a lot of the dynamic in Georgia is the result of calamitous GOP policies at the state level. All politics is local.

by Jim J 2008-06-20 06:55AM | 0 recs
Viva Howard Dean!

Howard, you are proof that sometimes the loser of a primary contest can actually accrue more impact and influence than the winner?  Where is John Kerry now?   You have unleashed a genie in the form of Barack Obama.

by activatedbybush 2008-06-20 07:51AM | 0 recs
I Beg to Differ

So will Obama carry Georgia with the help of Bob Barr, who represented the state in Congress? At this point, it doesn't even really matter.

It matters a great deal, not because it would swing the election, although at 15 EVs that's worth considering, but because the bigger the win, the bigger the mandate and the longer the coattails.

That will all become quite important after inaguration day.

by Phil In Denver 2008-06-20 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

This also bodes well for likely Dem nominee Jim Martin in the senate race vs. Chambliss

by volvodrivingliberal 2008-06-20 10:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

We are wondering down here in GA why the heck Obama has seen fit to endorse a just plain awful, wiretap loving, warmongering, Bush tax-cut-supporting Blue Dog like John Barrow over a perfectly good and progressive congressional candidate like state senator Regina Thomas in Savannah GA.

Obama cut a radio commercial supporting this awful hack that is airing right now --- in a primary election.  If this is his idea of a 50 state strategy, and his notion of which Democrats need to be empowered and which need to be shunned, well....

For a lot more on Obama's choice in the GA 12th district, look here.  For what it's worth, Barrow was a prime pusher of the telecom's position from the beginning, openly asking Pelosi to let him votge with them on the wiretap issue months ago.

by zumbi50 2008-06-20 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Georgia On My Mind

 Ratings are increased by close electoral contests. There are most goodLed Flashlights Therefore, its in their interest to make the race closer.

by yu26313171 2008-06-20 06:22PM | 0 recs

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