Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Public Policy polling (733 LVs, June 14-15, MOE +/- 3.6%) has released the first poll out of Ohio since Hillary Clinton endorsed Barack Obama and by the looks of it, maybe Ohio isn't such a swing state after all.

CandidateJune 14-15March 15-17RCP 4-poll Ave.
Obama504145.5
McCain394941.8

While it's tempting to attribute the result to a "unity bounce," PPP's findings actually track with Survey USA's poll from mid-May (600 RVs, May 16-18, MOE 4.1%), taken more than two weeks before Hillary Clinton conceded:

CandidateMay 16-18April 11-13
Obama4845
McCain3947

So, what's the common ground between the two polls? Party ID.

From PPP's blog:

We've had several folks ask about the party id breakdown on our Ohio poll, which was 55% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 15% other.

Obviously that would show incredible movement in a Democratic direction on party id. The 2006 exit poll in Ohio found a 40-37 Democratic edge, while the 2004 exit poll showed Republicans with a 40-35 advantage.

If PPP was the only company that found such a strong Democratic party id average, we would most likely have weighted for party to bring it more in line with those numbers from 2004 and 2006.

We're not the only one though. SurveyUSA, which doesn't weight for party, found a party distribution of 52% Democrats and 28% Republicans in its most recent Ohio poll. Since the party breakdown we found was pretty similar to that, we feel confident enough in it not to weight for party.

Thank you, presidential primary.

It should be noted that Survey USA and PPP were the most accurate predictors of the actual Ohio primary result. Survey USA's final poll showed Clinton up 54-44 and PPP had her up 51-42. Ohio's final result: 54-44.

Tags: 2008 Presidential election, Barack Obama, John McCain, Ohio (all tags)

Comments

58 Comments

Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Folks, I don't want anyone resting on the laurels, per se, but McCain will lose.

Seriously.

by Reeves 2008-06-17 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

As Bowers says, campaign like the election is a tie.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I'm not ready to do a dance or anything, but this is certainly good news.  Let's keep up the pressure on McCain.

by ProgressiveDL 2008-06-17 11:08AM | 0 recs
Actually, Obama lost OH by 8.7 points

not 10.

I offer this not to minimize his loss there, but rather to point out how accurate PPP was there.

They also nailed WI and were best in class in SC.

They ARGed it in Pennsylvania, though.

by Geekesque 2008-06-17 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I love this result, but I have to believe that it's an outlier, based on the last two elections.  At least, Obama should campaign as if it's an outlier.

by rfahey22 2008-06-17 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

He certainly should- and I believe he will.

That being said it is beginning to look at if McCain and the Repubs resources are going to be stretched awfully thin and that is a good thing for us.

by JDF 2008-06-17 11:42AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Yeah but SUSA agrees, which makes me think at LEAST at the present, Obama is leading by a few points.  

Wow... THAT would be awesome!  Boy if we pick up some of the red states too, I say for the next primary season we remove SDs but keep the proportional delegates... it looks like that helped us big time.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

But look at the party ID! That is an amazing number, hopefully we keep it till November.

by sulthernao 2008-06-17 01:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

IMO, too many Obama followers are taking these early- VERY EARLY- polls too seriously.

The General Election campaign hasn't really started.  There is a LONG time between now and November.  In 2004, it looked like Gore had a really good chance too.  And he had a strong VP in Edwards (actually, I always felt Edwards was- and still is- the better candidate for President) and things didn't start getting ugly for Gore until Convention time.

It might look good today and I understand trying to keep everyone "pumped up" about this guy, but McCain is no shrinking violet.  Like Bush, you so-called liberals keep dismissing McCain.  

It will be your downfall and McCain's triumph.

by stefystef 2008-06-17 11:12AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

In 2004, I mean Kerry.
In 2000, the media was too against Gore to give him a chance and the set the bar low for George W. so he could seem "better than he actually was.

So, before people go crazy over pointing out my error about 2004, I have corrected it myself.

2004.  Kerry was the nominee.  Yes, I know.

by stefystef 2008-06-17 11:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Congrats on that.

by SpanishFly 2008-06-17 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Yeah it HAD to be the media... it has NOTHING to do with Gore running a mediocre campaign... I love the guy, but he and Brazille ran a poor campaign in 2000.  It should have never been close, his first debate performance hurt him and he should have never given up on Ohio or Tennessee.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

True.  But the media did work against Gore the entire election as well.  The whole "invented the internet" thing took on a life of its own.  And since fucking when is "who I want to have a beer with more" the right criteria for picking a President?  

And while I agree he had other states he could've won, he probably actually won Florida.  I'm jus' sayin'...

by SpanishFly 2008-06-17 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Nah...no one should take a five month out poll as gospel.

But it's just one of many trends I see that indicate that McCain doesn't have much juice going into the most poisonous (for Republicans) political environment imaginable. That's a double whammy.

You really mixed up your "Gore" and "Kerry," tho.

by Reeves 2008-06-17 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

"you so-called Liberals"

"Obama followers"

"Your downfall"

Where are you coming from exactly?
What is your agenda?
Who are you supporting?

This is a progressive website in case you haven't noticed. So if Obama loses isn't it your downfall as well? Or are you looking forward to seeing McCain name Supreme Court Justices?

by JDF 2008-06-17 11:46AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

"Where are you coming from exactly?
What is your agenda?
Who are you supporting?"

Isn't it obvious?

by John in Chicago 2008-06-17 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

She's probably a McCain Troll?  Yeah, based on her previous comments, it does sound like it.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I'm having a hard time seeing if you are supporting Obama or McCain.  The last two lines lead me to believe you are a McCain supporter and I would warn you that Pro-McCain posts are really against site rules... just as an FYI.  But maybe I am mistaken.  Either way, the "so called Liberals" line is offensive and pisses me off.

Now, I will prove your comments are pretty much incorrect, since Obama is doing better than Kerry at this point.

For the record, The GE has started... but I will concede a lot more people will pay attention after labor day.  Remember though Bush and Kerry were campaigning in March for the GE... this GE is a lot shorter than 2004 or 2000.  

And actually if you really DO check the facts, Kerry never had more than 4% lead nationally... Bush started as the favorite in april and they went back and forth until September.  But so far Obama is doing better than Kerry did.  And it wasn't the convention but the swifties or more the lack of response TO the swifties that hurt Kerry.

So at this point, Obama has had national leads more than Bush ever had on Kerry or vice-versa.  

But don't take my word for it... here is a well researched and cited article by Chris bowers that shows you the errors in your statement.

http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?dia ryId=6322

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Never mind on your support... your previous comments make it clear you are not a Democrat.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Ridiculous Admins... YOU YOURSELVES SAY THAT PRO-MCCAIN POSTS ARE NOT ALLOWED.  THIS IS CLEARLY A PRO-MCCAIN POST!

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

According to Poblano, if Obama wins Ohio he has a 93% chance of winning the election.

by really not a troll 2008-06-17 11:17AM | 0 recs
Yeah, my Gut says simular

if he wins OH he wins it all.

I am wary of the big spread here. I think Obama is leading, but not by THAT much.

As too paying attention to polls this far out. The only thing they are good for is to give a snapshot of current situations, and I'd much rather be in this situation then the reverse. It makes it a little easier.

Fight, fight hard, have fun. Win.

by notedgeways 2008-06-17 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah, my Gut says simular

He ONLY needs to win by 1 vote.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Yeah, my Gut says simular

But wouldn't a crushing defeat be more fun?

by skohayes 2008-06-17 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

If Obama wins Ohio I don't see him losing Michigan or Pennsylvania either.  With those three in hand McCain can only hope to win the presidency by running the table on Iowa, New Mexico, and New Hampshire, or improbably snatching Wisconsin, Oregon, or New Jersey.  Very unlikely events.

Without Ohio McCain is screwed electorally.

by Skaje 2008-06-17 11:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

He has a better shot in Wisconsin or NJ than Iowa, IMHO.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Heh, tell that to us Iowans.  Seriously there is massive Obama support there.  The reason Iowa goes GOP some years is because of the immigration issue and McCain doesn't have any ground with the far right there.  Not to mention McCain is on the wrong side of ethanol for most Iowans (not me... I hate that shit...)

I would also say if he picks up Ohio I throw Virginia into his column too.  Its roughly the same demographics that he'll have to win over in both states to put him over the top (urban blue color whites.)  

by iowa dem 2008-06-17 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Woops, you were saying McCain has a better shot in the others then in Iowa.

Hell, I certainly agree with that.

>_<

by iowa dem 2008-06-17 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Sorry should have been more specific... I have to think Iowa is a great Obama pickup given the organization he built... hence why I think it is the surest of the Bush 2004 states.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Ultimately I expect Obama to win WI and Iowa by about 10 points, and NJ and OR by about 15 points each.  Obama should also take New Mexico and New Hampshire by at least 5 points.  The odds of McCain hitting 270 without Ohio are next to zero.  Plus he has to watch his back in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and Missouri.  If Obama nabs a couple of those he wins even if he loses Ohio (and Florida, which when it becomes competitive will bankrupt McCain).

by Skaje 2008-06-17 09:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I am pleased with these polls.  I hope they're right.  Even if they are right, we still have to expect the Obama campaign to fight like they're ten points down here in Ohio.

This state is too important to coast in.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-06-17 11:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Don't relax. Campaign like we are 10 points down. We are trying to elect a black man president.

What are you doing to help elect Barack Obama?

by pneuma 2008-06-17 11:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

" We are trying to elect a black man president. "

- Care to explain .

I am scratching my head on that one.

by lori 2008-06-17 11:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Our nominee is a black man ergo we are trying to elect a black man to the Presidency. It is something we have never done before and there are reasons for many people to be nervous about it. The same would be true if Hillary were the nominee; we would be trying to elect a woman to the Presidency for the first time and a group of people would also be nervous about our chances in that situation.

Not much to scratch your head about here.

by JDF 2008-06-17 11:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Actually I agree with Lori... That comment was one that shouldn't have been made.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

He meant it was a first and it brings its own  challenges.

by Jess81 2008-06-17 01:39PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Yeah, what the hell?

This country isn't predisposed to electing a minority.

It would be tough to elect a woman in this country too.

Let's face up to it, and kick ass anyway.

by Bush Bites 2008-06-17 03:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I interpreted "We are trying to elect a black man president" to mean "We are trying to do something that would have been called impossible as recently as five years ago.  There is still a big battle ahead, and still a lot of racism in this country. Don't rest on your laurels."

by jere7my 2008-06-17 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

No Campaign like your tied... Campaigning like your 10 points down means you are being panicky and making mistakes.  

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I'm not trying to elect a black man president.  I'm trying to elect Sen. Barack Obama president.  The fact that he would be the first black president is very cool but not central to why I'm supporting him.

by Gene In PA 2008-06-17 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I want to elect a yellow man(?) for President... That's why I support Ralph Wiggum for President.

by yitbos96bb 2008-06-17 01:16PM | 0 recs
Isn't that the definition of a Swing State?

It swings one way, and then the other.

No telling where it will be in November.

by ocli 2008-06-17 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Ohio is still a swing state.  Let's not go crazy based on a few polls taken almost 5 months before the election.

by bosdcla14 2008-06-17 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

There was a poll putting Obama 13pts up in Minnesota a few days back, now there is one showing him only 1pt up.

Ohio is still a swing state, just as Minnesota is. This thing could go either way, there's a real mix of good and bad signs for Obama and McCain.

by liberalj 2008-06-17 12:17PM | 0 recs
The Minnesota poll was really weird

It had Obama losing the Twin Cities (Minneapolis/St. Paul), and winning the rest of the state. It also had Obama winning voters over 50, and losing voters under 50.

I'm not going to believe either of those without a lot of confirmation.

by MILiberal 2008-06-17 01:07PM | 0 recs
Re: The Minnesota poll was really weird

WTF?

Almost sounds like they transposed the numbers.

by Bush Bites 2008-06-17 03:15PM | 0 recs
While pleasing

Polls this far out from November are meaningless.  There's a lot o' slime between now and then.  

If Obama keeps reminding people we elected Bush based on character assassination and we need to focus on issues this time or we'll end up in the same boat, he should win states like Ohio.  They're dying there.

by SpanishFly 2008-06-17 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I'm glad people are not hyperventilating about this poll. It'd be phenomenal news to have a 30 point swing from Dem to Rep in the voter turnout, but really a stretch...

If you overlay the '04 party numbers onto the poll, it comes out McCain 47 - Obama 41.

It's probably somewhere in-between and very close.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-06-17 12:38PM | 0 recs
SUSA has shown similar voter breakdowns

Their last OH poll showed a 24-point Dem advantage; their second-to-last OH poll had an 18-point Dem advantage (going from memory.)

by MILiberal 2008-06-17 01:04PM | 0 recs
I would also note that you didn't seem to care

When SUSA's polls showed Clinton performing better than Obama. If you rebalanced those polls to the 2004 breakdown, most of the disparity disappears (because Obama performed better in polls among Republicans and Independents than Clinton did).

by MILiberal 2008-06-17 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: I would also note that you didn't seem to care

You are comparing a primary with a general and expecting something out of it?

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-06-17 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Republican governance has failed on every level in Ohio. Don't underestimate the backlash.

by wengler 2008-06-17 02:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Jerome, I'd like to point out that Governor Taft was polling at six percent at one point.

Here in Ohio the Republican brand is in the complete shitter.  Voinovich has better odds than the other guy, but not that great.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-06-17 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Yea, which is why I'd go with the '06 numbers.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-06-17 06:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

Ohio no longer a swing state? Depends what you mean by "swing state." Different people would say that a "swing state" is defined as the answer to any of these three questions:

  1. Which states are likely to have close results in the election?
  2. If the election becomes close, then which states are likely to have close results in the election?
  3. Which states are likely to both a) matter to the result of the election and b) have close results?

Definition 1 is probably the worst one, but I think a lot of pundits implicitly use it -- it ludicrously says that MN was a swing state in 1984, and that AR was a swing state in 1980, even though those were among the most Democratic in those elections.

This poll suggests that OH is not a swing state according to definition 1 -- that is, OH is not a very close state. However, I believe it is still very much a swing state according to definition 2 (and probably def'n 3) because Obama is leading by roughly the same amount in OH (I estimate by 3.6) and nationally (I estimate by 4.0).

by bschak 2008-06-17 05:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

I live here... I simply don't believe it.. there is too much racism in this state... even in democratic strongholds...

But, I'd be pleased as punch to be wrong!!!

by LordMike 2008-06-17 07:16PM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

That McCain could prevail in rust-belt states like Ohio and Michigan seems implausible in the extreme.  He has no economic message, only that lost jobs are not coming back and that everybody should go to commmunity college.

Ohio and Michigan have no choice but to go with the change agent, since the status quo is so awful.

by Bob H 2008-06-18 01:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Ohio No Longer A Swing State?

The reason Iowa goes GOP some years is, the immigration issue and McCain doesn't have any ground with the far right there.  Not to mention McCain is on the wrong side of ethanol for most Iowans.

by blueskyadf 2008-06-21 12:13AM | 0 recs

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