Ohio No Longer A Swing State?
by Todd Beeton, Tue Jun 17, 2008 at 11:03:00 AM EDT
Public Policy polling (733 LVs, June 14-15, MOE +/- 3.6%) has released the first poll out of Ohio since Hillary Clinton endorsed Barack Obama and by the looks of it, maybe Ohio isn't such a swing state after all.
|Candidate||June 14-15||March 15-17||RCP 4-poll Ave.|
While it's tempting to attribute the result to a "unity bounce," PPP's findings actually track with Survey USA's poll from mid-May (600 RVs, May 16-18, MOE 4.1%), taken more than two weeks before Hillary Clinton conceded:
|Candidate||May 16-18||April 11-13|
So, what's the common ground between the two polls? Party ID.
From PPP's blog:
We've had several folks ask about the party id breakdown on our Ohio poll, which was 55% Democratic, 30% Republican, and 15% other.
Obviously that would show incredible movement in a Democratic direction on party id. The 2006 exit poll in Ohio found a 40-37 Democratic edge, while the 2004 exit poll showed Republicans with a 40-35 advantage.
If PPP was the only company that found such a strong Democratic party id average, we would most likely have weighted for party to bring it more in line with those numbers from 2004 and 2006.
We're not the only one though. SurveyUSA, which doesn't weight for party, found a party distribution of 52% Democrats and 28% Republicans in its most recent Ohio poll. Since the party breakdown we found was pretty similar to that, we feel confident enough in it not to weight for party.
Thank you, presidential primary.
It should be noted that Survey USA and PPP were the most accurate predictors of the actual Ohio primary result. Survey USA's final poll showed Clinton up 54-44 and PPP had her up 51-42. Ohio's final result: 54-44.