KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

A few weeks ago, Rasmussen released a curious poll showing Democrat Bruce Lunsford up over Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell by 5% in Kentucky. To counter it, the McConnell campaign released an internal poll (h/t SSP)  that found McConnell leading by 11%. Looks like the truth may be somewhere in between.

Today, Survey USA released a poll that finds McConnell up, but within the margin of error. In other words, as SUSA puts it:

McConnell and Lunsford Start Off Neck and Neck

The results:

McConnell 50
Lunsford 46

If true, this would be just a devastating development for the NRSC since conventional wisdom had this race outside of the top 10 pick-up opportunities Democrats have to get to a true filibuster-proof majority of 60 (I'm no longer counting Lieberman as part of our caucus.)

On a not unrelated note, SUSA also found Barack Obama has cut John McCain's lead in the state in half since mid-May

McCain 53 (56)
Obama 41 (32)

Thank you, presidential primary.

Tags: Bruce Lunsford, KY-Sen, Mitch McConnell (all tags)

Comments

21 Comments

Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

There are so many to choose from, but that's absolutely my vote for worst GOP Senator. Hope he gets clobbered!

by MediaFreeze 2008-06-17 02:07PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

In any rational world, McConnell would get crushed for treating US soldiers like a disposable commodity and proposing the most filibusters EVER to stop evil things like children getting healthcare. But this is Kentucky circa 2008. I don't expect any miracles.

by wengler 2008-06-17 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

hey watch it.

by lori 2008-06-17 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

What channel?

Where can we watch McConnel lose?

by DemsLandslide2008 2008-06-17 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

WKYT 5 .....

Great place to see it happening.

by lori 2008-06-17 02:18PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

We're from Tennessee. No need to defend those folks up north... :)

by elrod 2008-06-17 03:39PM | 0 recs
yeah, but some of those soldiers

that McConnell and McCain treat like disposable commodities are white and probably have quite a few Kentucky relatives.

by obsessed 2008-06-17 03:34PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

Mcconnell is such a horrible senator .

The bluegrass state really needs better representation.

Thats a state Clinton can help out with Lunsford , if she hits the ground for him.

That said I believe  McConnell would still prevail.

With regards to Obama , thats probably the closest it would get in KT , I don't expect him to spend to much resources in this neighbourhood.

We won't get face time either.

I would advise Obama to concentrate on the mountain west and Ohio .

Indiana , VA , NC are better choices for him.

by lori 2008-06-17 02:13PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

Well, campaigning in Cincy and to a lesser degree the tri-state area (greater Huntington WV) will help a lot, and if Obama targets IN seriously, greater Louisville would be a crucial media market too.

I agree that this isn't getting closer than 12% on the Presidential level, but I'd LOVE to see Sen. Hooters go down in flames.

by BlueEngineerInOhio 2008-06-17 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

Maine, Kentucky, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Virgina, Minnesota, Alaska, North Carolina and Mississipi?

Does anyone think there's any realistic chance we could see this sweep?

I guess its good not to get hopes too high. An Obama Presidency with a filibuster proof senate just seems too good to be true after the last 8yrs.

by liberalj 2008-06-17 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

"I guess its good not to get hopes too high. An Obama Presidency with a filibuster proof senate just seems too good to be true after the last 8yrs."

Huh? Why not?

Whats the worst that could happen?

The framing we need to embrace is that we need to be READY on Jan 9, sure there is that 2 months between nov and january, but forget hope,
There is a STRONG chance that we will have a fillibuster proof congress with Obama in the WH.

We need to start preparing for next year, as it is a game few are familiar with.

by DemsLandslide2008 2008-06-17 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

President John McCain is the worst that could happen. All my hope for the future of America rests on the shoulders of Barack Obama.

Its scary just how fundamental this election is. Every $ donated is money well spent.

I think if Obama wins, he wins big. And if he wins big, the tidal wave will carry nearly all those Senate races with it.

by liberalj 2008-06-17 03:29PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

It ain't over until the USA sings.

by usedmeat 2008-06-17 03:12PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

Well, Lunsford isn't too exciting... he's a republican who registered as a democrat to run for office...  but, it would be great to knock the minority leader out, like they did to Daschle... especially since it seems that McConnell has been an effective a**hole for their side...

Hillary and Bill could definitely help here...

by LordMike 2008-06-17 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

agreed

by lori 2008-06-17 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

Its the Hillary Clinton impact.

Let her campaign for Lunsford and then see how things turn out.

by ajain 2008-06-17 03:31PM | 0 recs
Obama down 12 in KY is great

Kerry lost KY by 20.

Considering all the talk about how white Southerners and Appalachian voters won't vote for a black man, we can put that notion to bed. Obama suffers because he's a non-Southern Democrat, not because he's black.

by elrod 2008-06-17 03:41PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama down 12 in KY is great

Thank you.

by lori 2008-06-17 03:43PM | 0 recs
Here's the details on 2004 KY

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Stat es_presidential_election_in_Kentucky,_20 04

Bush: 59.55%
Kerry: 39.5%

Note also that some of the few counties that Kerry won - mostly coal country counties like Floyd and Breathitt - went about 9 to 1 for Clinton in the primaries. Are those counties going Republican now? I doubt it. They love the Clintons. They don't hate Obama.

by elrod 2008-06-17 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Here's the details on 2004 KY

You know I believe Obama would do better than Kerry if he actually pounds the pavement in these parts.

He won't win , but he can suprise folks.

I don't think his camp would think its worth it though.

by lori 2008-06-17 03:58PM | 0 recs
Re: KY-Sen: McConnell In Trouble

Campaigning against McConnell can only help with the other Senate races where Bush hardliners have failed to represent their state's interests and huddled with the Republican Party. Neither McConnell nor Roberts have been representing the interests of the people of their states. That can be said of the many Republican Senate seats in jeopardy. We can't assume that just because states have historically voted for Republicans in Presidential elections, they will do so in Senate races. I do think Hillary could help out a lot as the VP candidate, whereas dispatching her to certain states not related to the Presidential race, and based solely on demographics, might backfire. People can get insulted as a resident of a specific state. I think the Lieberman/Lamont race lends some credence to my opinion. But I would sorely love to see McConnell gone from Kentucky.

by alterego 2008-06-17 03:55PM | 0 recs

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