John Ensign Revises GOP Senate Hopes Upward...To 45!

After essentially crossing his fingers for a retention of 41 seats in the US Senate this fall, Sen. John Ensign of Nevada, the chump whose job it is to ensure the election of Republicans to the senate, seems to have revised his estimates somewhat upward (h/t Northwest Progressive Institute blog):

"I think it would be a great night, especially, [to lose only] three seats -- that would be a terrific night for us, absolutely," he said. "I don't want to slip below the four-seat loss -- that's kind of where we set our absolute worst goal, is to be down to 45 seats."

Forget all that stuff I said the other day about 41 seats!

But in another sign that Ensign is actually more reality-based in his analysis of the situation this fall than not, he ponders Obama's impact on downticket races:

He said that while Sen. Barack Obama's impact on down-ballot races is "unknowable at this point," he expects Obama to boost the prospects of Democratic candidates in some states -- naming Oregon as an example.

"Without Barack Obama, [Sen.] Gordon Smith probably wins [reelection] going away," Ensign said.

Senator Smith, meet bus.

Tags: 2008 senate election, Barack Obama, Gordon Smith, John Ensign, OR-Sen (all tags)

Comments

13 Comments

Re: John Ensign Revises GOP Senate Hopes Upward...

Virginia, NH, CO, NM.  Sorry Senator Ensign, you're going to have to get closer to the 57(+1)/41(+1) goal.

by PantsB 2008-06-12 04:18PM | 0 recs
Realization


Senator Smith, meet bus.

So are former Clinton supporters finally coming around to the fact that Barack Obama brings some powerful and unique electoral strengths to the table?

by gobacktotexas 2008-06-12 04:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Realization

I've always seen his downticket potential as one of the plusses of his candidacy. Not enough to make me vote for him, of course, but at the same time, I've always thought Hillary's downticket downside has been overstated.

by Todd Beeton 2008-06-12 04:46PM | 0 recs
Ensign's wrong as usual

Obama will help bring out African American voters in Lousiana. Also, Kennedy is turning to be a toal doof. We will win no less than 4-5 seats. My rankings as follows:

1. Virginia

  1. New Mexico
  2. Colorado
  3. New Hampshire
  4. Alaska
  5. Oregon
  6. Minnesota
  7. North Carolina
  8. Mississippi B
  9. Kentucky
  10. Maine

I expect the NRSC to bail out of New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado and Oregon by October and make their last stand in North Carolina and Mississippi, which is deep into their own turf.

by RandyMI 2008-06-12 06:04PM | 0 recs
Re: Ensign's wrong as usual

12. Texas

  1. Kansas
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Idaho
  4. Nebraska
  5. Georgia

These six may still see some positive movement yet but your list is definitely the most likely outcome as of today.

by conspiracy 2008-06-13 04:22AM | 0 recs
Re: Ensign's wrong as usual

completely agree with the order except that New Hampshire is either #2 or #3.  Colorado polling has been a few points difference all along, while except  for one outlier not long after Shaheen's husband made the drug remarks, she's pretty much had a double digit lead.

by edparrot 2008-06-13 07:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Ensign's wrong as usual

We really need to make sure that we take Oregon and Maine. Both are seats where we can put a real progressive into the senate and remove faux-moderate republicans. I'd much rather have Maine than MS, NC, or KY. We'll get someone who will vote with the party much more often.

by Quinton 2008-06-13 01:17PM | 0 recs
Gordon Smith is far ahead in the money race

Jeff Merkley needs our help.

by Lefty Coaster 2008-06-12 06:10PM | 0 recs
Re: John Ensign Revises GOP Senate Hopes Upward...

Would you believe...?

by zerosumgame 2008-06-12 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: John Ensign Revises GOP Senate Hopes Upward...

I can still hear Don Adams inflection of that :)

by trytobereal 2008-06-12 07:09PM | 0 recs
Re: John Ensign

The next constructive step for the National Republican Senatorial Committee would appear to be to put John Ensign in a bag and stow it in a locker somewhere.

Of course, I hope they don't do that, because I enjoy Ensign's regular contributions to the demoralization of the GOP rank and file. Keep up the crepe-hanging, John!

by Zeno 2008-06-12 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: John Ensign Revises GOP Senate Hopes Upward...

He has the best down ticket of ANY candidate as he turns out millions of new voters.  If the Repugs don't lose enough to give the Dems 61 they should be ecstatic.

by scytherius 2008-06-12 08:45PM | 0 recs
Re: John Ensign Revises GOP Senate Hopes Upward...

Oregon and Minnesota are similar. Rasmussen has Franken within 3 and if he can at least keep it that close Obama will pull him over the line. Ras has Barack leading McCain by double digits.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_sena te_elections/minnesota/election_2008_min nesota_senate

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/minnesota/election_200 8_minnesota_presidential_election

by conspiracy 2008-06-13 05:17AM | 0 recs

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