TX-Sen: Second Poll Puts Noriega Within 4 Points

We've been watching this race for over a year, but I have to admit, as much hope as I held out for Democrat Rick Noriega to really make a contest out of it, I never really expected it to get this close this soon. But following up on Rasmussen Reports polling released earlier in the week showing Noriega only slightly trailing (though within the margin of error of) freshman Republican Senator John Cornyn down in Texas, a second poll this week shows effectively the same result. Here's the nonpartisan Research 2000 for Daily Kos:

AllMenWom.GOPINDDEM
Cornyn485343814511
Noriega444048134582

The fact that Cornyn can only managed to get about four in five GOP members to back him in his reelection bid -- about the same level of support from within his own party that Noriega receives despite the fact that the latter hasn't been on the scene for nearly as long -- speaks to the incumbent's problems.

At least in part, some of this discontent could be traced to the unpopularity of George W. Bush even in his "home" state of Texas. According to R2K, just 37 percent of Texas likely voters approve of the job Bush is doing as President while a whopping 63 percent disapprove. Even among Republicans, Bush's approval rating is a relatively weak 68 percent, with 32 percent disapproving. Unless Cornyn can figure out a way to solidify his base and get that number up among Republicans, he's going to have a heck of a time pushing his lead over Noriega outside of the margin of error.

Now before the Democrats get their hopes too high up, it's worth remembering that Cornyn has about 26 times more money in the bank than Noriega. Specifically, that's a $8,688,953 to $329,293 lead in cash-on-hand. Unless Noriega can up that number (and you can help him today through Act Blue), it's going to be awfully tough for him to make use of the political climate in Texas that might actually enable him to become the first Democrat since Lloyd Bentsen (yeah, that Lloyd Bentsen) to win a Senate election in Texas. At the same time, Noriega need not necessarily match Cornyn, only begin to get closer to him, given that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has about $20.5 million more in the bank than the National Republican Senatorial Committee and could help Noriega out if this race is still close in October. This could be a fun one.

Update [2008-5-9 15:3:49 by Jonathan Singer]: Noriega is liveblogging right now for those interested.

Tags: Senate 2008, texas, TX-Sen (all tags)

Comments

10 Comments

Obama Fundraising

I'd like to see an official Obama fundraising email for Noriega. That would help him catch up pretty quickly...

by Hatch 2008-05-09 10:32AM | 0 recs
Obama volunteers should be organized

in the Lone Star State to be Noriega volunteers.

by Carl Nyberg 2008-05-09 11:14AM | 0 recs
Must get ahold of all my TX friends

This is awesome on a whole new level of awesomeness.

by kasjogren 2008-05-09 10:34AM | 0 recs
And I can't STAND Cornyn

It would be so sweet to see him go down.

by you like it 2008-05-09 10:47AM | 0 recs
Rick liveblogging on DKos

Rick is liveblogging now for anyone who wants to jump in:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/9/1 35210/1500/908/512695

by lhuynh 2008-05-09 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Second Poll Puts Noriega Within 4 Poin

It's remarkable. This primary thing has really taken the focus off the downticket stuff, but things are looking really, really good. I'm almost worried that there's not enough bad news!

by Mandoliniment 2008-05-09 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: TX-Sen: Second Poll

What a fantastic poll result.  Everybody here in Texas has sensed the changing political climate.  Dallas County turned blue in 2006.  Democrat won a special state house election in my district (has been Republican for 20+ years) in 2007.  But, I thought winning this race was a bit of a stretch.  If he's really within 4 now, then this is a true toss up because he's still not well known.  There's also so many Hispanics who can be registered and turned out to vote with some money and effort.

by soccerandpolitics 2008-05-09 11:08AM | 0 recs
make the GOP feel the pain

I would like to see the Dems make a full court press, including going on the offensive in the following states:

* Alaska

  • Oregon
  • Idaho
  • Colorado
  • Oklahoma
  • Minnesota
  • Mississippi
  • North Carolina
  • Virginia
  • New Hampshire
  • Maine

And maybe, Nebraska, Kansas, Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia.

It seems possible to win 8-10 from the first list and, in a good year, there's a chance of snagging one from the second list.

Gaining 8-11 Senate seats and making big gains in the House will make the GOP think twice before betting their political future on a BS war next time.

I'm a little concerned about NJ. NJ may be more vulnerable than SD or LA.

by Carl Nyberg 2008-05-09 11:09AM | 0 recs
the presidential numbers don't look as strong
according to Research2000 (both candidates behind by roughly 10 points) but it could be an historic year for Texas.
by ab03 2008-05-09 11:26AM | 0 recs
Great news!

I sent Noriega some turkee awhile back - I had a hunch that he was the real deal.  I may have to stop by ActBlue again for him this weekend.  And Scott Kleeb.  And Kay Hagans.

by RT 2008-05-09 11:28AM | 0 recs

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