by Jerome Armstrong, Wed May 07, 2008 at 04:35:45 AM EDT
Clinton won Indiana by a tad, and Obama won North Carolina by a wide margin, which is not what the poll of polls showed would happen. Usually, when this sort of break occurs, it's due to some sort of demographical shift that occurred. Looking at the results of Indiana, and comparing the exit polls of OH voters with IN voters, here's a few things that jumped out:
- Black voters supported Obama by 87% in OH, and by 90% in IN.
- White voters supported Obama by 34% in OH, and by 40% in IN.
- White Democrats moved from Clinton leading by 43% in OH, to Clinton leading by 28% in IN.
- Liberal voters moved from Clinton leading by 7% in OH to Obama leading by 14% in IN.
- Conservative voters moved from Obama leading by 5% in OH to Clinton leading by 24% in IN.
In short, for Indiana, Clinton's projecting of a more GE favorable image (she's risen nationally in the polls in recent weeks) appears to have cost her among the liberal voters. This also explains why the polls were so wrong, especially SUSA. Clinton didn't gain the 21% of black voters that they polled, and they polled Clinton winning among liberals by a 53-44 margin, off by 23 percent. This is most likely due to the 'gas tax' issue. Though she had a 'divide and conquor' frame of the issue that work well for a GE against a Republican, in a Democratic primary, it allowed Obama to squeeze her from the liberal viewpoint.
As for North Carolina, it just comes down to the divide of racial voting that Clinton could not overcome, even if she did dent into Obama a bit. Take a look at Obama's totals of GA, VA, and NC:
Black (30%) White (61%) Georgia 88 43 Black (30%) White (61%) Virginia 90 52 Black (34%) White (62%) North Carolina 91 37Compared to neighboring states, with similar population breakdowns, there has been a drop-off of white support for Obama, but there's been no in-roads by Clinton among black voters. Obama won GA by 61-26 and VA by 64-35, so a 56-42 margin in NC, though marginally better than past results, was no where near where where the poll of polls showed the contest would wind up.
As for Clinton's chances going ahead, they are minimal. I gave about a 10% shot after she won TX & OH, and upped that to 15% after her PA win, and around 20% a week ago. Now, it's slimmer than ever before. There's little doubt that, considering any marker, Obama is on the path to the nomination, now more than ever. Congrats to all his supporters on a good night.
I doubt that Clinton will drop out though. She'll stay in and continue to fight for every delegate. The thinking being, who knows what happens between now and the convention, every delegate counts. She'll rack up a victory in West Virginia in a week, and that'll bring up all the media chatter bugs talking about how Obama doesn't appeal to some regions. She'll win in KY and will try and win OR. Then we'll have the delegate showdown at the end of the month over MI & FL-- that'll be the most contentious. And then its on to few remaining states, PR, where Clinton will likely win, and MT & SD, where Obama will likely win.