North Carolina Poll Update And Prediction Thread
by Todd Beeton, Mon May 05, 2008 at 11:15:03 AM EDT
Interesting that while nationally Obama seems to have reversed Clinton's recent surge, all three new North Carolina polls show Clinton still ticking up a bit.
|Candidate||Insider Advantage 5/4 (5/1)||Zogby 5/3-4 (5/2-3)||PPP 5/3-4 (4/26-27)||RCP 7-poll Ave.|
|Obama||48 (49)||48 (48)||53 (51)||49.6|
|Clinton||45 (44)||40 (39)||43 (39)||42.6|
The key factor here is the racial polarization of the race. Insider Avantage has Obama winning blacks 79-18 while Clinton wins whites 59-33. According to Matt Towery, if Clinton is able to reach 60% of the white vote, she could "pull off a victory" but IA has the poll much tighter than the others. Alternatively, PPP is showing the racial divide to be even more stark.
We estimate that 35% of the primary electorate will be black, and with Obama winning those voters at a rate of 84-11, Clinton's 60-34 advantage with white voters is only enough to pull his lead down to ten.
PPP believes the advantage Barack Obama has had among black voters turning out in force to vote early will make it impossible for Clinton to catch him.
Zogby too has African-American turnout at 35% but has Obama winning among them 77-10 and Clinton winning among white voters by 55-34, thus accounting for a slightly tighter race.
The undecided vote is fairly consistent among all polls, coming in at 7% or 8%. A big question is who exactly the undecided voters are and will they break for Obama as they have in states demographically similar to North Carolina, or will they break for Clinton as they have among voting groups pre-disposed to voting for her.
How do you think it will go?