McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

New poll out showing McCain leads Obama by 8 percent in Virgina:

VCU's Commonwealth Poll finds 44 percent of registered voters prefer McCain, compared with 36 percent for Obama, the Democratic front-runner.

Oh wait, that'd be cherry-picking polls...

More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?

Tags: 2008 election (all tags)

Comments

155 Comments

Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

You just love to stir the pot.  What are you going to do once Obama is officially the nominee?  

by nwgates 2008-05-22 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Hope there's a seat in the back of the bus (somewhere above the tire).

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
...with a chicken and a pig under each arm

Sorry, Jerome.

The above the tire seat has been taken by Joe Andrew.

You have to ride on the roof Honduran style.

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-05-22 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: ...with a chicken and a pig under each arm

More like TEEN WOLF style!

by kasjogren 2008-05-22 12:28PM | 0 recs
Nepalese style...

ready to jump off in case it goes off a cliff!

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: ...with a chicken and a pig under each arm

LOL!!!

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle 2008-05-22 12:43PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

I'm sure there will be room on the bus for all.

by nwgates 2008-05-22 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

And BTW, I thought you LOVED SUSA.

by nwgates 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
VCU - no history of Presidential polling

I'll certainly take SUSA over VCU, which apparently has not done Presidential polling since 2000: http://www.commonwealthpoll.vcu.edu/poll _data.htm

Whatta track record!

by Liberaltarian 2008-05-22 12:27PM | 0 recs
"BTW, I thought you LOVED SUSA."

only when they love Hill

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-22 12:33PM | 0 recs
Repeat of 92' It' The Economy Stupid
The Iraq war is fading as an issue as the casualities trend down to zero (this month will have the fewest deaths of any of the war). It now appears, without question, that the SURGE worked and Iraq is becoming 'stable'. US troops are headed to the background and the 'issue' of the war is going with it.
The economy with a recession, housing disaster, job losses, and gas prices through the roof are ready made for the Clintons. Hillary can pander on the same level as Bill and it shows in the polls. Americans don't trust her, but we believe they can make the economy better because they did in the 90's!
If the Democratic nomination process were beginning today and not last December, Hillary would have won in a walk.  If she was the nominee she would have won the White House by landslide proportions.  As it is now, Obama will be lucky to come close to McCain - another nail biter simliar to 2000 except it will come down to three states - Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio.
by minnehot1 2008-05-22 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

You just love to stir the pot.  What are you going to do once Obama is officially the nominee?

And then again, he might not be the nominee.

by SophieL 2008-05-22 04:55PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Chances of that:  Slim to none

by nwgates 2008-05-23 04:07PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

You never know.

by SophieL 2008-05-23 06:29PM | 0 recs
Wow

I dont understand this diary.

Is this a joke, snark, attack, information.

Please elaborate, what am I supposed to take away from this diary?

by CrushTheGOP2008 2008-05-22 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Wow

Two line stories? Really? If you have a quick comment to make and there's no open thread, go ahead and make a story out of it but give it some thought and give us more than a couple lines. Have some respect for the blog and its readers by taking the time to flesh out your thoughts to make it worth the time to read. 1 or 2 line drive-by stories are just lame.

by ImpeachBushCheney 2008-05-22 12:25PM | 0 recs
cute kid, but.....

Oh lighten up.

It's his blog.

For goodness sake, Dkos readers have had to put up with baby pictures of the Markos' kid on the front page.

by emptythreatsfarm 2008-05-22 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: cute kid, but.....

My question was honest, and did not even attack the 3 line issue.

I am a firm believer that a point or question can be staged that way, my problem is Jerome seemed to deliver a joke that I just didn't get.

Not sure if it was an insider thing, but i really didn't get it.

And sure he can write what he wants, I personally expect alot more as he is a far better writer when it comes to blogging politics than I could ever dream to be.

by CrushTheGOP2008 2008-05-22 12:34PM | 0 recs
Pictures are up to avoid death threats

... for not posting!

Joke. That was a joke. Yes, really. I read kos too!

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: cute kid, but.....

I was just parroting what appeared in a recent front page post on MyDD diary guidelines.

by ImpeachBushCheney 2008-05-22 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: Wow

I think that what we "take away" from this diary is that Virginia may not be trending Dem in the Presidential race.  It may or it may not; Virginia is "iffy." (In Colorado, we are used to seeing Democratic governors and some Senators and--lately--gains in the House. But, voters often separate out their Presidential vote from the other offices in this state. LBJ won here; Clinton in '92 because of the three-way run; and Clinton in '96. Despite quadrennial optimism, it is a tough state for WH votes.) I suspect that Virginia may not be as friendly as we think given the demos, such as naval installations and McCain's status as naval hero.

by christinep 2008-05-22 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Wow

Thank you for the explanation.

by CrushTheGOP2008 2008-05-22 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

It's May.  

Let's save the polls until later.  I'd love to see some issues diaries contrasting the Dems and the Repub's or talking about how we can make a move for wider progressive values in Nov.

Enought with poll, after poll, after poll, regardless of who they favor.

by proseandpromise 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

None of these polls, good/bad, matter until late-September.

by Veteran75 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
they do matter

they are going to help Super delegates chose in August who can best beat McCain.

by TeresaInPa 2008-05-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: they do matter

Super Delegates are smart enough to know POSC - stastical methods and history.

These polls do not have any value until at least a week after the last nominating convention of the season (GOP-September).

The Super Delegates have already decided, and it is doubtful that 75% will be swayed by an early Summer poll.

by Veteran75 2008-05-22 12:44PM | 0 recs
In politics, my word is the only thing that matter

... you know who said that ;-)

btw, love your new sig!

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 12:45PM | 0 recs
Why did we vote?

Why did we vote? Let's just take polls every four years in August and take those polls only in the states that are "important" No matter that August isn't November or that we live in a frakkin democracy or that the DNC has created rules that all parties agreed to at the beginning of this race (even if they don't give you the result you want.)

by batgirl71 2008-05-22 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Presidential polls do matter at this stage. Down ticket races are very where polls move wildly, but not in our polarized society for the race for President.

The differences between 2000 and 2004 were two states switching - none affected the outcome.

Right now the Obama (blue) states and McCain (red) states are largely set - there are fewer than 10 states that are really in 'play' this year. Colorado, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, Ohio and New Hampshire. All the rest are spoken for. The notion that Florida, Virginia, or Missouri will be competitive is simply nonsense.  The seven states sited above is the ball game and the odds, today, call for a McCain victory.  

by minnehot1 2008-05-22 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Except that most recent polls show FL and MO close and Obama ahead or close in VA.  And I assume Iowa is safe for Obama?

Virginia is a different state than it was 8 years ago. Been to Northern Virginia lately? It's now about half the state's population - and yet most of the black population of VA lives outside Northern Virginia. Tidewater and it's naval installations aren't big enough to counter NOVA. McCain needs to run up the score in the Richmond suburbs and in southside Virginia near Lynchburg and the Valley in order to win.

by elrod 2008-05-22 01:45PM | 0 recs
Florida Close?

You're kidding right?

RCP Average 03/15 - 05/20 -- 48.3 40.0 McCain +8.3
Quinnipiac 05/13 - 05/20 1419 RV 45 41 McCain +4.0
Rasmussen 05/19 - 05/19 500 LV 50 40 McCain +10.0
Quinnipiac 04/23 - 04/29 1411 RV 44 43 McCain +1.0
Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/10 500 LV 53 38 McCain +15.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1136 RV 46 37 McCain +9.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/16 618 LV 50 39 McCain +11.0
Rasmussen 03/12 - 03/12 500 LV 47 43 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 632 RV 47 45 McCain +2.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 - 02/24 625 RV 47 37 McCain +10.0
Rasmussen 02/16 - 02/16 500 LV 53 37 McCain +16.0

Obama has NO chance in Florida

by minnehot1 2008-05-22 02:00PM | 0 recs
Missouri Close?

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 1523 LV 48 45 McCain +3.0
Rasmussen 05/06 - 05/06 500 LV 47 41 McCain +6.0
SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13 542 RV 50 42 McCain +8.0
Rasmussen 03/24 - 03/24 500 LV 53 38 McCain +15.0
SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 536 RV 53 39 McCain +14.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 632 RV 48 42 McCain +6.0
Rasmussen 02/11 - 02/11 500 LV 42 40 McCain +2.0
SurveyUSA 01/11 - 01/13 562 RV 51 40 McCain +11.0

Again, Obama has zero chance.

by minnehot1 2008-05-22 02:01PM | 0 recs
Iowa?

Yes, I'm giving Iowa and Minnesota to Obama as a sure thing. Also, New Mexico and Colorado.

by minnehot1 2008-05-22 02:03PM | 0 recs
VCU Poll has McCain UP 8 pts in VA

The SurveyUSA poll is an outlier:

Poll Date Sample McCain (R) Obama (D) Spread
RCP Average 05/08 - 05/18 -- 44.3 43.0 McCain +1.3
SurveyUSA 05/16 - 05/18 600 RV 42 49 Obama +7.0
VCU 05/12 - 05/18 852 RV 44 36 McCain +8.0
Rasmussen 05/08 - 05/08 500 LV 47 44 McCain +3.0
SurveyUSA 04/11 - 04/13 515 RV 52 44 McCain +8.0
Rasmussen 03/27 - 03/27 500 LV 52 41 McCain +11.0

Again, Virginia is a particularly strong state for McCain because he nearly matches Obama in the northern Virginia suburbs, wins the military vote huge down through Norfolk, etc. and western Virginia (Scots-Irish territory) he wins with 90+ percent of the vote.  McCain in a walk

by minnehot1 2008-05-22 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: VCU Poll has McCain UP 8 pts in VA

Chatter among my military folks is not as Pro-McCain as one might assume. He may take a plurality, but the DEM will take a few . . . and more than you might think will follow the wishes of Ron Paul.

My totally unscientific feel from working with that community in the beltway region is:

40% - McCain
30% - DEM
10% - Paul(Barr)
15% - Ambivalent

by Veteran75 2008-05-22 02:56PM | 0 recs
Re: VCU Poll has McCain UP 8 pts in VA

OOPS . . . meant 15% Paul(Barr)

by Veteran75 2008-05-22 02:58PM | 0 recs
Re: VCU Poll has McCain UP 8 pts in VA

You don't get around much.  The following is a narrative description from the VCU poll of yesterday:

"McCain holds a strong lead in the more rural areas of the state, including the northwest and western areas, and a nine-point lead in the Tidewater area. In vote-rich Northern Virginia, Obama has a slight edge over McCain, 41 to 36 percent.  Obama also leads McCain 43 to 39 percent in the south central area, a region which includes Richmond."

Without regard to military or civilian background, McCain is within 7pt of Obama in the northern suburbs and within 4pts in the Richmond area.  He has huge margins everywhere else.  Translation?

McCain wins Virginia

by minnehot1 2008-05-22 03:18PM | 0 recs
Re: VCU Poll has McCain UP 8 pts in VA

being that I live in Virginia. Witnessed the narrative in action. I can tell you this Virginia can very much be in play come November. The fact that you are basing this on one VCU poll(?) and also are not taking into effect the upward swing from Mark Warner running for the US Senate. One of the most popular Governors ever in Va.

So come November I say you will be surprised of course only if the losing side of our primary gets on board in supporting the nominee like we have done every other season except this one where apparently its all or nothing for one side.

by John a Va Dem 2008-05-22 03:35PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

settle down jerome

by aaaa05 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

I think the Wright issue was bigger than people would like us to believe.

Wright came out after Super Tuesday - if it had hit the airwaves prior to Super Tuesday, I wonder what the math would be today.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

As evidenced by his blowout losses in NC and IN when the Wright cacaphony was at its crescendo?

by kasjogren 2008-05-22 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

NC - he carried the AA vote.  IN - neighboring state to his state of IL.  That helps out alot.

and he didn't win IN, did he?

I am not saying ALL states would have gone to Clinton;  however, I do think she would have gotten more delegates from the states she had won and some of the states he got might have either gone her way or be a lot closer.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

She would have won more delegates if her campaign hadn't been ran by retards too.

by kasjogren 2008-05-22 12:29PM | 0 recs
I love your sig.

If I posted similarly, mine would say

I can haz screenpaw back?

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

I am having a hard time understanding why that was troll rated, it was absolutely true.

by kasjogren 2008-05-22 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

You might want to rethink the use of the term 'retards'.

Folks all over have mentally handicapped relatives and take great offense at the term.

by emsprater 2008-05-22 02:02PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

NC - he carried the AA vote.

Ah. But he still lost among real voters? "hard working Americans"?

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-22 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

give it up - you are race-baiting, when I am just posting a fact

NC has a higher population of AA's than most states in the US.  AA's are usually democrats.  Obama has carried AA's in the 90+ percent range.

if you look at the other stats in NC, Obama & Hillary split 'em pretty evenly.

I am sorry that you think everything is racist.

sad, really

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

if you look at the other stats in NC, Obama & Hillary split 'em pretty evenly.

So we're done with the "he can't win white voters" schtick?

Good. It was extremely tiresome.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-22 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

he can win white voters - I don't think anyone stated he can't.

However, you are getting tiresome when you ignore that white voters are not a monolithic block and there are some that do not like Obama and will never vote for him.

Is is race?  I don't think so.  These same folks didn't vote for Kerry.  I think it is the attitude, which whether it is fair or not, Obama has been cast as the out-of-touch elitist.

It may not be YOUR perception of Obama, but millions of people do view him that way.  Just as millions of people view Hillary as a bitch.

fair?  No.  But perception never is.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:47PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

However, you are getting tiresome when you ignore that white voters are not a monolithic block

Um.... I was quoting Hillary Clinton, who in turn was ignoring a whole lot of states that disproved her race-baiting and fear-mongering (and, happily) failed attempts to scare super-delegates into supporting her.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-22 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Name me one thing that came out of Hillary's mouth that was race-baiting.  Name me one thing that was fear-mongering (3am ad is not fear mongering, it is just an an ad that came out way after Super Tuesday)

Hillary's campaign made a tragic mistake in ignoring caucus states, but then again, several of those states are deader than a doorknob for a Democratic nominee to get it to turn blue in the GE.

again, Hillary Clinton looks at exit polling and yes, the base of the democratic party - the blue collar workers - have been turning out and supporting her quite a bit.  

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:57PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

"I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on," she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article "that found how Sen. Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me."

The implication that hard working americans were white was bad enough...but that that those who have completed college don't work hard was even dumber.

by kasjogren 2008-05-22 01:17PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

In her defense, she didn't believe any of it. She was on autopanderpilot.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-22 05:41PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

you know, John Kerry was lambasted for his speech on education and if you don't go to college, you'll be stuck in Iraq.

you know darn well what she meant.  and the polls do bear her out with her statement.

and btw, was that comment before super tuesday?  No. And I do believe that was what I was commenting on.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-23 05:14AM | 0 recs
And I think she would have lost New York State

And california.

Sadly, my thoughts, like yours, don't count.

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 12:51PM | 0 recs
Re: And I think she would have lost New York State

really?  Based on what?

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:58PM | 0 recs
based on the black vote being pissed as hell at

her, and taking a considerable number of liberals with 'em.

Do you read any of the black blogs out there? I quoted one a few days ago...

People got pissed, and yeah a lot of them would have changed their minds.

I can still read Francis' diaries about why most blacks support hillary ;-)

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 01:16PM | 0 recs
huh?

the Obama campaign said they were going to win big in NC dues to demographics.  IN is next to IL and Gary IN had some questionable results, to say the least.  In fact I am sure there was some funky ballot stuffing going on.  But Clinton still won in IN a state she was not supposed to win.

by TeresaInPa 2008-05-22 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: huh?

<i.the Obama campaign said they were going to win big in NC dues to demographics.</i>

And Hillary said it was going to be a "game changer". How'd that work out?

As to Indiana: How was she "not supposed to win' a state where she led in the polling until a couple of weeks before the primary, and was never down by more than five?

In fact I am sure there was some funky ballot stuffing going on.

And if linfar and TexasDarlin told you that Obama was getting support from illegal aliens, by which I mean little green creatures from beyond the Milky Way, I'm sure you'd be convinced of that, too.

Bless your heart

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-22 12:46PM | 0 recs
Re: huh?

Bless your heart, too, BlueinColorado. Before returning to CO, I lived in Indiana for 8 years. Northwestern Indiana has always been more than influenced by Chicago. Up until a few weeks before the election, Clinton was described in several articles (if memory serves) as having "an uphill battle" in Indiana. The surprising thing there was when the trajectory shifted a few weeks out before starting its return to what would be expected. So...in reality, Clinton's win was a surprise. (I seem to recall Axelrod's earlier prediction of an Obama win there in his famous strategy paper.)

by christinep 2008-05-22 01:04PM | 0 recs
hey, she pulled it off!

more credit to her!

... she's still not going to win, though.

I'm all in favor of clapping when either of them wins a state.

This entire race has been about demographics.

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: huh?

Your memory serves you poorly, I think. I remember the first poll showing an Obama lead, and it was surprising.

by BlueinColorado 2008-05-22 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: huh?

Notre Dame?

by fogiv 2008-05-22 03:04PM | 0 recs
This from the man who wouldn't give street money?

... i'm sorry, but this goes beyond my credulosity.

by BlogSurrogate57 2008-05-22 12:52PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

NC was right after he drank the politics-as-usual Kool-Aid and threw the man who brought him to Jesus under the bus.

by SophieL 2008-05-22 05:01PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

The poll is within the margin of error.

by Jonathan Singer 2008-05-22 12:20PM | 0 recs
Hey - why ya gotta kill a good post with facts.

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-22 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Yea, here's the pdf, for those interested.

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-05-22 12:27PM | 0 recs
Somebody tell Bill Clinton

he's passed the nomination phase, and is focusing on getting Hill the VEEP spot.

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-22 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Well the latest MN polls have both of them up.  I think the EV counter is just highly inaccurate.

by kasjogren 2008-05-22 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Why are you so happy about our likely Democratic Presidential candidate behind McCain in Virginia?

by ImpeachBushCheney 2008-05-22 12:21PM | 0 recs
Dueling Front Pagers

Woo Hoo

let me get the pop corn out

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-22 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

VCU's poll was taken between the 12th and the 18th; SUSA's was between the 16th and the 18th.

Well now what, which counts as "more recent"?  After all, SUSA started later, and was announced later.  But they ended on the same day...  And they had such different results, even though they polled around the same time!  We're in a quandary.

...Or maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't be using "recentness" as our most important polling metric?

by BishopRook 2008-05-22 12:21PM | 0 recs
Does Viriginia Respect our troops?

Because McCain sure doesn't.

The war mongerer and torture advocate doesn't stand a chance against a nation of moral citizens.

by CrushTheGOP2008 2008-05-22 12:22PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Shorter Jerome:

The poll showing Obama up doesn't matter because you can find a poll that shows whatever you want!

But seriously, look at how well Clinton is doing in the EC!!  ummm... according to the latest polls.

Truly beyond parody.

by map 2008-05-22 12:23PM | 0 recs
look at data sample ....

this poll is only 14% African-American & 80% white in sample.

exit polls from 2004 indicated 21% AA and 72% white in Virginia, and, if anything the 21% AA number is likely to increase.

by silver spring 2008-05-22 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

Where are the African Americans going to come from?

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-05-22 12:25PM | 0 recs
you misunderstand ...

the VA Commonwealth does not show a representative sample of the African American vote that's already there in VA ... it's showing only 14%, where in reality it will be at least 21% -- as it was in 2004 (if not significantly more b/c of increased AA turnout due to Obama being on top of the ballot).

by silver spring 2008-05-22 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

Are you kidding me????

Obama is unquestionably going to increase AA turnout over 2004 in a black heavy state like Virginia. If you don't believe that..........

by Terrance Manley 2008-05-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

Are you suggesting that people would vote for a candidate simply because of the color of his skin?

by SophieL 2008-05-22 05:05PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

hmmm, I believe they factored that in - remember a poll a few months ago about Hillary and the opinion of her?  Well, they oversampled AA's in that poll; but they did do factoring back in, so that it was properly represented.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

from their site

Data are weighted to adjust for unequal probabilities of selection due to multiple adults living in the household. In addition, the data are weighted on sex, race, age, and region of residence to reflect the demographic composition of the Virginia adult population. As a general rule, percentages reported in the text and tables of all releases are weighted, while the number of cases shown for various subgroups is the actual number of respondents.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

Good to know you can read a poll.

Where were you when the poll you referenced came out and people were hollering that it was rigged because they oversampled african americans?  And didn't know what oversampling meant?

by Jess81 2008-05-22 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

I was educated about oversampling.  And I don't believe I made any comment about that particular poll - I do remember it - at all.

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

Oh I didn't say you did; it was a joke.

If that poll made you happy, and there were people with an interest in poking holes in it, it was a frustrating time.  It was a "where were you when I needed you?" sort of question.

I didn't mean you to literally answer it.

by Jess81 2008-05-22 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

and why aren't you "educating" the poster that complained about this poll?

instead, you want to slam me for just pointing out that we all learned a thing or two about oversampling and how they factor those results into the poll readings.

jeez - two wrongs don't make a right, you know

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

Aaaaaaa!  I'm sorry.  I really think you're misunderstanding me though.

by Jess81 2008-05-22 12:43PM | 0 recs
i ran through the numbers and ...

it still doesn't appear to be weighed right though.  If you plug in 72% white (instead of 80%) and 21% AA (instead of 14%) you basically get McCain 40 - Obama 36 (the initial 8 point lead is reduced by half).  Furthermore, the AA sample here only has that group voting 86% for Obama.  I would venture to guess it may be more like 90-95% -- whereby if you run the numbers again, the overall totals would be McCain 40 - Obama 38 ...

by silver spring 2008-05-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: i ran through the numbers and ...

well, there are polls based on likely voters and actual registered voters.

how many AA's came out and voted in NC (percentage wise) in total?

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: i ran through the numbers and ...

26% in the 2004 general election.

by BishopRook 2008-05-22 12:51PM | 0 recs
Thanks !

by silver spring 2008-05-22 12:55PM | 0 recs
Re: i ran through the numbers and ...

I am talking about the primaries.  

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 12:59PM | 0 recs
are you referring to 2004 or ..

recent primary (can't really compare primary as it's like apples to oranges) but I agree with BishopRook below that a lot of these polls are 1) not only undersampling AA voters compared to 2004, but also 2) the 2008 numbers may be significantly higher than 2004 .... so in a state like VA, while this poll shows 14% AA, it may wind up something like 24% (with the Obama campaign's 50-state registration initiative and increased turnout b/c Obama's on top of the ticket) -- which is a huge difference.

by silver spring 2008-05-22 12:54PM | 0 recs
Re: are you referring to 2004 or ..

oversampling should take all of that in account.  

They oversampled AA's by a huge margin in an infamous poll a few months back - and yet it was factored back in correctly

you might be correct;  but then again, you may be feeding in numbers that are totally misleading, although make sense to you - you cannot do that without knowing the raw data itself

by colebiancardi 2008-05-22 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: look at data sample ....

That's similar to the outlier SUSA poll recently released for North Carolina.  Their respondents were 20% black; 2004 saw an electorate that was 26% black in NC, and you can be damn sure that's going to go up when Obama's the nominee.

by BishopRook 2008-05-22 12:28PM | 0 recs
Any comment on the swirling VEEP stakes

Jerome,

any inside insight on the swirling VEEP reports?

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-22 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Clinton is at 326 ev's on the MYDD electoral maps because they are a sham intended to prop her up.

by feliks 2008-05-22 12:25PM | 0 recs
Clinton Up in EVs

The explanation, Jerome, is that Clinton is the stronger candidate.

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-05-22 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Up in EVs

Not according to this poll:


Would Clinton Fare Better?

Virginia voters prefer McCain over Clinton by 47 percent to 38 percent. There was no evidence in the poll that the Democratic Party would fare better in Virginia this fall if the party nominee is Clinton. The patterns of support across demographic groups are similar for both Obama and Clinton.

by Piuma 2008-05-22 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Up in EVs

Virginia hasn't voted Democratic for President since Hillary was a Goldwater Girl. That's a long time ago!

by Zeitgeist9000 2008-05-22 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Up in EVs

Yeah I know, amazing innit?  It's almost as if we have a potentially map-changing nominee...

by BishopRook 2008-05-22 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Up in EVs

Yup.

Jerome has not drank the kool aid.

by gotalife 2008-05-22 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: Clinton Up in EVs

yup, people like her better. She has better policies, she resonates with voters better.

by TeresaInPa 2008-05-22 12:45PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Absolutely right.  Obama leading by 7 points in one poll should get no more weight that behind by 8 in the other one.  The average of the 9 mos recent polls on fivethirtyeight.com shows McCain wih an average lead of 2.2%, certainly within any reasonable margin of error.

That same site shows Clinton with a better chance of beating Mccain in the EV.

I sometimes wonder, though, do you believe that Clinton has any chance of winning the nomination at this point?  If so, how do you see that happening given where we are now, superdelegates, etc?  Even granting Florida and MI exactly as is doesn't seem like it would do it, and the supers don't seem any more likely to go for the popular vote argument in 2 weeks than they are now.

If not, while I know that the anti-Clinton forces are pretty damn obnoxious, are you interested in rising above the bickering?  Just 'cause kos does it too doesn't make it right.

by edparrot 2008-05-22 12:27PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

"More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?"

I have one.  Clinton already is receiving the unity bump.  Until yesterday, she was saying the right things, and Obama supporters were willing to go along and say they'd support her since there is so little perceived downside.  Meanwhile, Clinton supporters aren't willing to go along yet, so they're holding out in hope that the polls will convince SDs.

by thezzyzx 2008-05-22 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

"More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?"

Because the Democrats are uniting now that the primaries are concluding, Obama supporters saying they'd prefer Hillary over McCain.

Hillary's supporters aren't there yet, as many of them aren't accepting it's over.

by Aris Katsaris 2008-05-22 12:32PM | 0 recs
I would say

That most Hillary supporters accept that Obama has won the nomination.  There is still a lot of hesitancy to vote for Obama vs. McCain, however, adn Obama hasn't done much to win her supporters over.

by DaveOinSF 2008-05-22 02:16PM | 0 recs
Re: I would say

These are the comments I dont understand . ."There is still a lot of hesitancy to vote for Obama vs. McCain"

Hillary Clinton waged a noble for the most part and a hard campaign but she is going to lose.

Yet you make a comment that Clinton supporters do not want to vote for Obama, the democrat, regardless of how unprogressive anyone thinks he is, he is the Democrat going to run for the White House. And he deserves our entire support.

These kinda comments make understand why people question someones cred as a Democrat. How someone could willingly allow in anyway a Republican to keep the White House makes them completely out of sync. I honestly do not get it.

by John a Va Dem 2008-05-22 03:44PM | 0 recs
You just don't get it

Obama and his campaign hurled a lot of invective at Hillary.  Her supporters are human.  They are going to react negatively to those making the accusations.  They are not going to compartmentalize the person and the policy, no matter how much (you think) they would prefer the policy.

by DaveOinSF 2008-05-22 04:31PM | 0 recs
Re: You just don't get it

I do get it. I think you are making this personal when it is simply politics, bad politics unfortunately.

There has been words out of the Clinton campaign that would make me pause to even think she is a democrat. But would I vote for her in November yes. Because by gawd im a Democrat that is been fighting for the past decade to swing my state and to recapture our country.

by John a Va Dem 2008-05-23 04:32AM | 0 recs
Re: You just don't get it

I did not mean 'You' personally, meant to say a more generic everyone. Sorry.

by John a Va Dem 2008-05-23 04:34AM | 0 recs
Clinton's Performance.

Neither Obama nor McCain are campaigning against her anymore. She's reaping the polling benefit of the McCain/Obama slugfest since she's positioned herself to the right of Obama but to the left of McCain.

Clinton's numbers have dropped when the candidates start locking horns.   Back in October, when Clinton opened up a 33-point lead on Obama, it looked like Obama was finished before the first contest took place.  In December, when things began to heat up between Clinton and Obama, the gap closed and Obama won Iowa in early Jan.  

by Homebrewer 2008-05-22 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

If only Clinton had held on to her poll leads for the whole primary season, she would have swept nearly every contest and would be the nominee now.

by BlueGAinDC 2008-05-22 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

I just listened to Sean Hannity for an hour during which he spoke constantly about how the votes in FL and MI should be counted, as well as all of the other HRC talking points.  

These wing nuts aren't stupid, much as we'd like to believe that to be the case, especially when it comes to matters political.  If they think Hillary should be the nomineee, then I would bet that plenty of research has been done to determine that Obama has the best chance against McCain.  

Polls at this stage, when the nominee isn't a lock yet and the HRC supporters are all pissed off, mean absolutely nothing.  Not to mention that fact that they don't account for the Republican liars who want this thing to swing to Hillary.

This is just nonsense.

by MikeyB 2008-05-22 12:36PM | 0 recs
The explanation is simple

Both Democrats beat McCain handily in a vacuum.  The national mood is DRASTICALLY slanted toward the Democrats right now (see: the special election wins).  The only reason that this election doesn't look like a blowout in previous polls is that dug-in Clinton and Obama supporters didn't want to admit support for the other against McCain.  Note the choice of words there: ADMIT.

At this point, most Obama supporters are confident that their favorite has the nomination.  So, when they get polled, competitive instinct is no longer overriding cool reason, and they answer with their sincere preference for Clinton over McCain.

So yeah, Hillary is reaping the "unity bump" in advance of actual unity.

by doktarr 2008-05-22 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Why?

Why, Jerome, do you take so much stock in your Electoral College map?  Your map relies on the most recent poll in a given state, which may or may not be accurate.  I could understand using national polls -- excluding the tracking ones, which are used to measure shifts in public opinion -- since there are far more of them than state polls.

Also, just because a poll is the way it is now, that doesn't necessarily mean it won't change in the future.

by Brad G 2008-05-22 12:37PM | 0 recs
&quot;stock in your Electoral College map? &quot;

that question is a joke, right?

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-22 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Clinton and McCain are attacking Obama.

No one is attacking Clinton.

I think that's part of it.  

Also, either polls matter or they don't---if they don't, then the NC SUSA cite you did yesterday was pretty useless.  If they do, then Kos has every right to cite the VA SUSA poll today (although he should have acknowledge the NC SUSA poll).  Make up your mind.

by bosdcla14 2008-05-22 12:38PM | 0 recs
Gee, Jerome..

I guess you could also cite the SUSA poll that shows Obama up 49-42 in VA...

And I think you could also interject a little intellectual honesty in to your "electoral" prognostication.

It is completely disingenuous of you to make any hard predictions or sound argument on the basis of polls taken six months before the general election.  They prove nothing and you know that.

Let's say we follow your argument out.  WE give the nom to Hill because she's currently doing better in this false metric of electoral votes.  But what happens if we did that and then get to August and September and suddenly she's not doing well at all?

I guess you and all the other Clinton supporters would owe us a pretty big apology for sticking it to the delegate winner and forcing your candidate on the more than 50% of Dems that don't support. You know, that 50% of the party that it's okay to offend and alienate.

Let's stick to what this nominating contest is about - delegates.  It is the only metric by which this race can be measured honestly.

Otherwise, why have primaries or caucuses at all?  We'll just pick our nominee on the basis of highly suspect and subjective reasoning.

So whose behaving like sychophantic hero-worshippers again?

by jaywillie 2008-05-22 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

it's the economy, even those who poll they don't trust her, somehow trust her to clean up the wastes in Washington, to fire hacks and restore professionals and experts to their rightful status, and to let them do their best.  She's no newbie, and her fighting spirt is inspirational to those of us who wished Gore had possessed some. She is seen as down-to-earth and genuinely nice. The more we see her the more we like her.  I expect her to continue to gain ground with pug women and indies, and she's got the working class blue collar vote already.

I have an indie friend from Virginia who voted for Barack but now backs Hillary. Barack made a big mistake when he mentioned in the last debate that he'd raise the cap on social security and make capital gains "fairer" by taxing it like income even if that meant an overall reduction in revenue.  

But he'll have a chance to win them, if and only if it goes to the convention, he can show us what he's made of too, he too can get specific and he too can show that he's not an out-of-touch Kerry style elite.  How hard is it to respect everyone's differences and to care about what matters? Lectures from on high do not win regular people, they've seen our leaders as out of touch all along, and this time they get to pick someone they actually like and admire.  Bush they liked, goodness knows why, but Hilary they like and admire. She's worked for everything and they alone can see that.  

by anna shane 2008-05-22 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

You actually believed it when Charlie Gibson parroted that Republican talking point that capital gains taxing doesn't increase revenue?

by brimur 2008-05-23 04:43AM | 0 recs
Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

Hillary Clinton is leading in the EV polls for two reasons:

  • Republicans are aiming their guns on Obama, and Obama alone

  • There's a large enough portion of Clinton supporters who are resentful towards Obama for winning the nomination that it shows up in the statistics.  If Hillary Clinton was about to win, you'd see pissed off Obama supporters.
  • Or who knows why.  Or the polls aren't accurate.  Or she's just the better candidate for May, 2008.

    by Jess81 2008-05-22 12:40PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    There's no need to even go that far. The reason Sen. Clinton is leading in the EV maps here is that there's absolutely no quality control going on. If you take any poll from any outfit, regardless of what their bias might be or their methodology (the Republican think tank poll with a sample of 300 leaps to mind) then surprise, surprise the end result is basically gibberish.

    And as to why the poll quoted here is different from the other poll earlier, it might have something to do with the fact this one has 20% undecided/other, as opposed to the earlier one with 9%. But, that wasn't really the point, was it? We're still apparently sell the "Obama is doomed, Clinton is the only way" schtick here.

    Not to put too fine a point on it, but it's a damn shame to see bias this clearly, and it reflects poorly on the vast majority of Sen. Clinton's supporters that are passionate but more reasoned.

    by werehippy 2008-05-22 01:05PM | 0 recs
    Clinton Leads in that Map

    What poll has her up in Indiana?  I don't remember that one.

    Also, I'm worried about you not voting for Obama.

    by umcpgreg 2008-05-22 12:41PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Two thoughts:

    1. Its way too early for the polls to be mean jack.  Contact me again in August and then we'll talk about what the polls mean.
    2. You're cherry-picking polls too, SUSA had Obama up, so what?

    by skywaker9 2008-05-22 12:46PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Jeez, Jerome, so now you're reduced to cherry picking polls by outfits who have no record of polling.  And weren't you a fan of SUSA, which shows Obama beating McCain.

    It's over.  She's toast.  Give it up.

    by scott2543 2008-05-22 12:48PM | 0 recs
    Why Clinton does better in some polls

    There is NO mystery here.  Clinton does better in many of these head-to-head polls because a large fraction of Clinton supporters (over 50%) are saying they'll vote for McCain, stay home, or don't know.  While some Obama supporters are saying they'll bolt or stay home if Clinton is the nominee, the % is much smaller (it's about a quarter).

    Because of this phenomenon, Obama wins approx. 70% of voters who describe themselves as Democrats, Clinton wins in the low 80s (in a typical year the number is approx. 90%, btw), and so Clinton looks like she's ahead even though Obama is beating her in the primary race now by approx. 10 points.  There's no contradiction here.  Both candidates, btw, do about the same in attracting indies and Republicans (with one of the big stories of the past few months, no question, being the GOP's ability to unify their party).

    There is some good new for Democrats in this, btw.  The fact that Clinton and Obama are competitive at all in these head-to-head matchups shows just how strong the wind is for the Democrats this year.  In a typical year, if 20% of the Dem base told pollsters they'd defect we'd be behind by, well, 8-10 points.

    The bad news, of course, is the possibility that these Democratic voters might carry out their threats.  This "I won't vote for the other candidate" business started showing up around the time of the Ohio/Texas primaries, the number of potential defectors has gotten larger every week, and the degree to which they carry out their threat will determine how damaging this protracted primary race has been.

    I backed Obama, so I'll make a pitch that this rift wasn't inevitable.  It's just not possible for a candidate to argue that his or her rival is "unfit" and not have this influence people's perceptions (this shift also started around the time of the Ohio/Texas primary, and whatever complaints Clinton supporters have about Obama I don't see the argument that he's made the same sort of claim, which is why I think the % of his supporters whom might potentially defect is lower).

    But, really, who knows?  If Clinton somehow got the nomination at this point, would the numbers simply reverse themselves?  Is it really the case that half of all Clinton supporters will bolt this November, or will the fraction turn out to be considerably smaller? (as seems to have happened with the GOP).

    Check the crosstabs on these polls, though.  This isn't just part of the explanation, it's basically the whole thing (and not for a few polls, this shows up, essentially, in every one).  

    by IncognitoErgoSum 2008-05-22 12:53PM | 0 recs
    Re: Why Clinton does better in some polls

    Thanks for looking at the cross-tabs!  

    Makes a lot of sense.  

    by TL 2008-05-22 01:43PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina
    Why is Clinton so far up in recent polling?

    My guess: people know that she's not going to be the nominee. Therefore when asked to chose betwenn McCain and Clinton, a question now deemed irrelevant by a vast majority, they give an irrelevant answer. Republicans may be tempted to say Clinton just to destabilize the democratic party. And also there may be an expression of sympathy for the loser.

    Another factor may be that, these days, McCain attacks only Obama and Obama is very nice to Clinton. So she benefits from the support of her campaign and Obama's, and McCain's neutrality, whereas Obama is attacked directly by McCain and his legitimacy is being attacked in a more devious way by Clinton.

    Still, significantly, when asked who is going to be the democratic nominee people massively answer Obama, and democrats prefer Obama.

    by french imp 2008-05-22 12:54PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    took this from Diary by proseandpromise(before it disappears)

    "I continue to marvel at this. Obama has lost five of the last seven primaries. He has won two major primaries since February 22nd, Oregon and North Carolina. He has not won enough delegates to be the nominee. But that hasn't stopped the media from reporting these false accomplishments that are fed to them by the Obama campaign, such as Obama now has a majority of the delegates. Well, big whoop. A majority of the delegates doesn't mean anything, so they keep changing the scenario; they keep changing the narrative. Obama was crushed in Kentucky. He is doing worse in key demographics than ever before, and they report the night as a big win for him."

    and this ..was..said..by..
    Rush L.

    by nogo postal 2008-05-22 12:56PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    I think Hillary has found a message that is really resonating with a lot of the swing voters who usually determine presidential elections.  For those who criticize the electoral maps on your site, they can check elsewhere, such as Poblano (http://fivethirtyeight.com), a fervent Obama supporter who tempers poll findings with a range of other data, including state's demographics, donations to candidates, etc.

    Poblano also finds  that Hillary has a 60.4% chance of winning the election against McCain, compared to a 51.6% chance by Obama.  These percentages vary day to day, but they have been trending more and more in Hillary's direction over the last few weeks (and, again, this is from a very pro-Obama analyst).

    by markjay 2008-05-22 12:58PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    "Very pro-Obama"?

    In the sense that he's been calling the election results accurately?  

    by TL 2008-05-22 01:41PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    He admits to being an Obama supporter in his FAQ, but he manages to keep the data and analysis objective.

    by patooker 2008-05-22 02:25PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    His Obama slant doesn't come out too strongly at fivethirtyeight.com, but he also blogs under the same name (Poblano) at Daily Kos, where he expresses his fervent support for Obama more openly.

    by markjay 2008-05-22 04:15PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    The head-to-head matchups aren't going to mean anything until the Democrats have one nominee.  All Poblano can do is work with the polls he has available (and they all include this high rate of potential Democratic defections).

    If Clinton's message were really gaining her new supporters, her numbers in the Democratic primary race would be going up (she's now down by ten points).

    What's happening is more of a race to the bottom: the number of Clinton supporters threatening not to vote for Obama is growing at a faster rate than the number of Obama supporters saying they won't vote for Clinton.

    And if the Dems lose in November because of this, what can one say?  The Republicans certainly don't deserve to win in November, but the Dems might earn this loss.

    by IncognitoErgoSum 2008-05-22 01:10PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    What's happening is more of a race to the bottom: the number of Clinton supporters threatening not to vote for Obama is growing at a faster rate than the number of Obama supporters saying they won't vote for Clinton.

    Well, no, that's not what's happening.  That's evident because Clinton's polling vis-a-vis McCain has steadily improved over the last month.

    by markjay 2008-05-22 04:17PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Can Jerome make a front page post that is positive about Obama?

    by Bobby Obama 2008-05-22 01:11PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    No.

    This has been another edition of simple answers to simple questions.

    by TL 2008-05-22 01:39PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Jonathan Singer does those.

    by bluestatedude 2008-05-22 07:10PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    "More seriously, why is Clinton so far up in the latest polling in all the states, now at 326 EV's. I don't have an explanation for it, nor have I read a good one. Any ideas?"

    I know, because the polls are seriously flawed.

    Clinton was waaaaay ahead in polls at the start of the primaries, so how come she is loosing now? Any ideas?

    Just because she is up in the polls now against McCain doesn't mean she could actually close deal. She obviously has a problem doing that.

    by montana36 2008-05-22 01:12PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    It's because Howard Dean and Barack Obama are Robert Mugabe, and the Florida and Michigan are Zimbabwe.  

    Seriously, dude.

    by TL 2008-05-22 01:39PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    We still don't know what polls make up those maps. We know it's the "latest state polls" but do we get lists of what they are? No we have to go hunt RCP or Pollster and try to figure out which one got chosen. What if two polls come out sampling the same days and one poll comes out on Monday, and one on Tuesday which one do you pick?

    These are things we do not know and so cannot correct.

    by MNPundit 2008-05-22 01:40PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina
    Clinton was waaaaay ahead in polls at the start of the primaries, so how come she is loosing now? Any ideas?

    Could be his rock star status started to kick in when KO gave him free advertising EVERY night on the news, when MSNBC became the He-Men-Woman-Haters club, could be Obama playing the race card early and often.
    And now Obama is post-peak while Hillary's picking up steam.
    by SophieL 2008-05-22 05:38PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    That's funny. Sad, but still funny.

    by montana36 2008-05-30 12:04PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Jerome, if you can't at least say constructive things about the dem nominee, why not just focus on saying negative things about mccain.

    hillary lost, dude. it's fine if you don't want to accept that, but i don't want to suffer through a super right wing out supreme court because you guys have sour grapes.

    c'mon man, can we turn our guns on mcSame now, please?

    by scorinaldi 2008-05-22 01:14PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Obama is not the nominee yet.

    by bluestatedude 2008-05-22 07:09PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Jerome, you seem to developing a pattern to your diaries...

    <bogus statements>
    <snark>
    <question, often snide, usually biased>

    HRC is up in the electoral maps because she's threatened everyone in the US with slavery if she doesn't win the nomination.

    No seriously, she's up because Obama supporters can afford to be magnanimous and say, sure, I'll support HRC as the nominee.  HRC supporters aren't ready to make a similar step, and HRC isn't interested in helping.  If the tables are turned, and HRC steals the nomination, expect HRC's numbers to nosedive.

    by obscurant 2008-05-22 01:34PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    My theory is valedictory feelings buoying her poll numbers. Or, possibly, "momentum" from winning big in WV and KY? I'll stick with the valedictory feelings, though, because I started to notice her uptrend after IN/NC. Basically, now that most people are assured she won't be the nominee, their oppositional feelings subside and it buoys her poll numbers. Basically, people planning to vote Obama who were pissed at Hillary, for whatever reason, will now admit to themselves they would vote for her ahead of McCain.

    by mattw 2008-05-22 01:36PM | 0 recs
    Lean on the exit polls for an explanation?

    Maybe Obama supporters are saying they'd vote for Hillary in the general election, but Hillary voters are saying no preference or McCain.

    That's what they seem to be telling exit pollsters, so why should this be different?

    by TL 2008-05-22 01:37PM | 0 recs
    Re: Clinton being up

    If you polled "the Democrat" vs. McCain right now, you'd probably win in a landslide.

    Previously, a good chunk of Obama supporters were answering in polls that they would support McCain vs. Clinton, and a good chunk of Clinton supporters were answering in polls that they would support McCain vs. Obama.

    Now, with Obama's nomination nearly wrapped up, Obama supporters are less vigilant (at least those not on the blogs) and are confessing they would in theory support Clinton vs. McCain, secure in the knowledge that that's not going to happen.  This is particularly true with Obama's African-American supporters, and you see Hillary doing substantially better among African-Americans in head-to-head matchups vs. McCain than you did a month or so ago.  They were never anti-Hillary, just pro-Obama, and bought in a little to the media-produced race baiting frenzy.

    Clinton supporters, on the other hand, are staring at a Obama-McCain general election matchup in the face.  They're remaining disenchanted with the process and have not yet begun rallying around the presumptive nominee.  Whether this group does end up actually supporting Obama or not remains to be seen, and how Obama and his supporters behave will have a large bearing on the outcome of this question.

    by DaveOinSF 2008-05-22 01:59PM | 0 recs
    Re: McCain Leads Obama in Virgina

    Lighten people. It was a snarky comment meant to stir the pot.

    It worked! lol!

    by spacemanspiff 2008-05-22 02:17PM | 0 recs
    Re: If Hillary was in the lead, she'd be targeted

    If Hillary was the presumptive Dem nominee, she'd be getting all the vetting and negative press.  (And I'm a Hillary supporter.)  So I don't think we can place too much reliance on these types of polls.  I think most Dems (not all) will rally around BO if he's nominated; same for if Hillary were nominated.  

    by Middleagemom 2008-05-22 02:31PM | 0 recs
    Why Clinton Does Better in the Electoral College?

    Despite running about equal in the popular vote, Clinton runs better in the electoral college than Obama because she runs better in rural areas. Although Democrats tend to run better than Republicans in urban centers, Obama is extra strong in urban areas but relatively weak in rural areas. Moreover, Obama is extra popular in his own homestate Illinois, much more popular than McCain is in Arizona or Clinton in New York.

    Thus, Clinton's support is more spread out, which favors her in the electoral college. However, if Obama can increase his poll numbers by just a few percentage points over McCain, he will start winning the electoral college by a comfortable margin.

    by Zzyzzy 2008-05-22 02:33PM | 0 recs
    Any ideas?

    Yeah. Ignore polls that reveal nothing this far from the election and with Clinton still trying to publicly undermine Obama.

    by Freespeechzone 2008-05-22 02:58PM | 0 recs

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